All-Time Top 5 (until June 2019)

Tesla Model 3 runs to the leadership

1. Nissan Leaf (422.708)

2. Tesla Model S (277.176)

3. Tesla Model 3 (276.193)

4. Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (215.385)

5. BYD Qin / Qin Pro (PHEV+BEV) (184.692)


As one can see, the Nissan Leaf is still haed and shoulders ahead of the competition, but the surging Tesla Model 3 is already in 3rd place, having most certainly risen to SeCond in July, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is the surviving plugin hybrid in the Top 5.

Closing the Top 5, the BYD Qin remained in #5, but for this to happen, we have to count the regular Qin and the larger Qin Pro, both in BEV and PHEV versions.

H1 2019 sales by OEM (Updated)

PHEV + BEV

1. Tesla (160.009)
2. BYD (141.459)
3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (100.736)
4. Geely Group (69.795)
5. BAIC (68.933)

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 14% share (Up 5% regarding June 2018), followed by BYD (13%, up 4%) and the Renault-Nissan Alliance,  that dropped from 1st to 3rd in 12 months, having seen share drop 2% YoY, to 9% share, while the #4 Geely Group is #4, with 6% (up 2% YoY), and BAIC dropped to 5th, with 6% share (down 2%).

In short, Tesla, BYD and Geely are winning share, while the rest is losing ground.

Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese is the unconstested leader, with 56% of all deliveries (up 10% YoY), while the USA profits from Tesla to rise to the runner-up spot (17%, up 3%), while Germany (11%, down 7%) and Japan (9%, down 2%) are sinking, with Korea (6%) now looking to become the third largest plugin vehicle power.

BEV only sales 

1. Tesla (160.009)
2. BYD (96.475)
3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (73.848)
4. BAIC (68.933)
5. Hyundai-Kia (42.605)

Looking just to BEVs, Tesla expands its lead to BYD and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, while the Geely Group is replaced by the Hyundai-Kia Group and BAIC rises to #4.

Global Sales by Automotive Group - Q1 2019

With the first quarter of the year done, it is time to see how the main PEV Automotive Groups have behaved:


1. BYD Group (71.504, +150%);

2. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (60.031, +21%);

4. Geely Group (34.746, +109%);

5. BMW Group (29.208, +5%).


As we can see, the top two makers are really in a league of their own, more than doubling their sales. The Alliance (including JMC) is still close to the other two, but its growth rate is smaller.

Regarding 2018, Geely has jumped 3 spots, to 4th, surpassing its Chinese rivals and a stagnating BMW.


Looking just at BEVs, the ranking goes like this:

1. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

2. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (46.768, +16%);

3. BYD Group (45.758, +758%);

4. BAIC (26.106, +21%);

5. Hyundai-Kia (19.632, +132%).


In the BEV ranking, Tesla is the expected leader, while BYD BEVs are growing exponentially, surely surpassing the Alliance soon, while the #5 Hyundai-Kia are also on the fast lane.

Which is the best City EV?

After the success of this post, i decided to compare the current crop of city BEVs in Portugal and see which would the best:


Range



BMW i3 - 4

Kia Soul EV - 3

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 2

Renault Zoe - 5 (300 kms real world range, 43 kW AC charging available)

Smart Forfour ED - 1

Volkswagen e-Up! - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 6


Space



BMW i3 - 3

Kia Soul EV- 4

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 1

Renault Zoe - 5 (Five usable seats, 338 liters in the trunk)

Smart Forfour ED - 2

Volkswagen e-Up! - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 6


Reliability / Running costs


BMW i3 - 3

Kia Soul EV - 5 (7 year warranty, reliable battery)

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 1

Renault Zoe - 4

Smart Forfour ED - 1

Volkswagen e-Up! - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 3


Manoeuvrability / Dynamics

BMW i3 - 5 (Unbeatable Dynamics, near perfect manoeuvrability)

Kia Soul EV - 1

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 4

Renault Zoe - 2

Smart Forfour ED - 4

Volkswagen e-Up! - 4

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 3



Price


BMW i3 - 1

Kia Soul EV - 4

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 7

Renault Zoe - 4

Smart ForFour ED - 8 (At circa 24.000 eur, it is 18.000 eur cheaper than the BMW i3...)

Volkswagen e-Up! - 6

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 2

Total

BMW i3 - 16 (Good range, stellar Dynamics, too bad about the price...)

Kia Soul EV - 17 (A balanced car, but there are more suited models for city driving) 

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 15 (Great price and manoeuvrability, but the world has moved on when it comes to the rest...)

Renault Zoe - 20 (Spacious city car with unbeatable range, which compensates some shortcomings in the manoeuvrability side)

Smart Forfour ED - 16 (Great price and fit for the city, but needs better range and increased charging speed)

Volkswagen e-Up! - 16 (Typical Volkswagen personality traits: Not bad at anything, not especially good in any item and slightly overpriced for what it is)

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 20 (Awesome range, unbeatable interior, but at an estimated 39k eur, it is playing in a different, higher class)

Automotive Groups December 2016

Regarding 2015, there were some major changes, BYD jumped ahead of the Renault-Nissan Alliance (Haven't included Mitsubishi yet, as the Japanese brand was only included in October), and has set an ambitious goal of 200.000 units in 2017, while Tesla climbed to Third at the expense of the Volkswagen Group and hopes to reach BYD-level of deliveries this year.

But the 2017 Best Selling OEM title will be a three horse race, as a Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance can also reach 200.000 units with relative ease, it's just a matter of producing the Renault Zoe at full speed, update the Nissan Leaf with a 40 kWh battery soon and actively sell the Mitsu Outlander PHEV.

Volkswagen's slow growth (Up only 6% YoY) has made it lose the Third spot and it wasn't surpassed by an ambitious (100.000 units goal for 2017!) BMW Group by just 300 units, so VW better shape up in 2017 and increase sales significantly, or else they will be on the uncomfortable role of also-rans, 2020 and its I.D. disruptive model is still some years away and a lot can/will change until then. 

BAIC is rising from the shadow of BYD and despite only selling half of the Chinese poster-child, it is growing significantly (The EC180 looks like a winner), so it wouldn't be surprising to see it reach 80.000 sales this year, same as the Geely Group, which has seen Volvo grow 50% and most importantly, Geely land with 17.000 units. Two OEMs to follow closely in 2017.

The same can be said about General Motors, growing 54% YoY in 2016 and that's without using the ace up its sleeve (Chevy Bolt). With the Bolt and Volt (Arriving soon to China) charging at full speed, anything less than doubling sales in 2017 will be considered a disappointment. As for the Cadillac CT6 PHEV career, i believe the ELR is a good sales indication...

Automotive Group	Units	% of sales
BYD	102.470	17
Renault-Nissan	86.247	1
Tesla	76.243	100
VW Group	62.480	1
BMW Group	62.157	3
BAIC	46.420	2
Zotye	37.363	15
Geely Group	32.760	3
General Motors	32.700	0
Mitsubishi	32.179	2

Looking at the percentage of plug-in sales of each OEM, besides the obvious case of Tesla, the two brands that have a significant share of EV's are BYD (17%) and Zotye (15%), with the remaining OEMs still having residual percentages, with the highest share of this third pack being the BMW and Geely Groups, both with 3% share. 

General Motors has a lot to improve, as their plug-ins still do not reach 1% of the Group sales, but even so, there are worse OEMs, like Toyota of Fiat-Chrysler... 

Top EV Automotive Groups - May 2016

In the beginning of the year, i've published the 2015 EV sales divided by Automotive Groups, let's see how the ranking is after the first five months of 2016.

		Sales '16	%	Total Sales	%
	Renault-Nissan	36.729	15	328.074	22
	BYD	34.008	14	121.664	8
	VW (VAG)	21.852	9	94.330	6
	Tesla	21.677	9	130.924	9
	BMW	17.117	7	69.146	5
	Mitsubishi	15.614	7	150.580	10
	Geely	12.881	5	79.050	5
	GM	10.729	5	122.560	8

Comparing with the 2015 and all-time numbers:

- This year the Renault-Nissan Alliance is still in the leadership, but emerging BYD (14% share now vs 11% in 2015) is becoming increasingly menacing, it looks to be just a question of time until the Chinese Group becomes the Best Selling OEM when it comes to plug-ins;

- Another significant event to those less familiar with EV Sales, is that Tesla is selling as many plug-ins as the whole Volkswagen Group (Including, VW, Audi, Porsche...), although VAG is still new to the game, the fact is that it has lost 2% share regarding last year, while Tesla share has been stable throughout the years, surfing the EV wave at around 9 to 10% share;

- BMW is expanding its plug-in portfolio and it shows, with a steady climb, having surpassed Mitsubishi, which has suffered from a number of ailments (Emissions scandal, ageing BEV lineup, fiscal changes in key markets...), dropping 2% share regarding 2015, a poor performance for what it is still the historical Second largest EV Maker. Having a hard time to keep up with the times, Mitsu?

- Geely is stable in #7, with Kandi, Geely and Volvo performing ok in their respective price classes.

- General Motors has recovered some ground, rising to the #8 position, thanks to the Volt II, although it is still an embarrassing place to be for a OEM that once was among the pioneers in 2010/11 and inclusively won the Best Seller crown in 2012;

- A word of mention to the following positions, with BAIC in #9, Ford in #10 (4% share, below the historical average of 5%), SAIC in #11 and Daimler Group, of Mercedes and Smart, still languishing in #12, selling a third of the eternal rival BMW...Merc has a lot to recover. 

- Finally, looking at sales by OEM's country of origin, Chinese automakers are increasing their lead, having by now 36% of the market, up 5% over 2015 and 13%(!) over the historical record. Expect this lead to increase even further during the year, possibly reaching 50% share by year end.

Shopping for an EV - Outlander PHEV (3/3)

And how did the Outlander PHEV felt like? - You may ask.

Well, pretty much like every midsize heavy SUV feels like, apart from some extra buttons and extra-silence in the electric-only drive.

This was my first plug-in hybrid drive, so i can´t say if the transition (gas/electric) is better or worse than in other PHEV's, but after driving the Leaf or i3, everytime i went back to my regular car, i felt like i had left an iPod and was back an LP disc (Does anyone remember these?).

Not so with the Outlander, it probably felt the most simple to use and analogic plug-in i have ever tried (1),  and probably that's one of its strengths, because many buyers feel a bit intimidated by the 22nd Century Technology and "The Future Is Today" tags that many times are attached to electric cars, if they find that their plug-in isn't that much different from their previous car, probably many would feel more comfortable with that.

Towards the end of the test drive, i saw a gravel road and asked if i could go there, and the sales guy said:

- Sure, after all, this is a 4WD!

"Now that's trusting your product!" - I thought, remembering that Lexus advises buyers not to off-road their hybrid RX's, "Because it might harm the electric parts of the car".

Finally, back to the dealership, i said that the Outlander PHEV was a bit more expensive than what o thought and asked i could get a discount, he replied that they didn't had margin for that, because the technology was new and it was already being sold with the lowest price possible, i asked if they could sell a demonstration vehicle with any discount, to which he said that the car had just been launched and you had to wait some 6 to 9 months in order to do that, so it was agreed that we talk again by that time.

Before i said goodbye, i asked if they were successful in selling PHEV's, to which he replied:

- No, not really...

- Because it's a new kind of technology and people aren't into that?

-No, because it is expensive, and buyers shy away from this to more affordable cars, i had one person that came here to see it (Outlander PHEV) and in the end, i sold him an ASX SUV, only because he didn't had the money to reach to the Outlander"


(1) - Except for the Mitsubishi I-Miev

Shopping for an EV - Outlander PHEV (2/3)

The Test Drive model was just like this one

My concerns were unfounded after all, when i arrived at the local Mitsubishi dealership, not one, but TWO Outlander PHEV's were present, one blue parked outside, alongside a L200 pick-up, and another in black, in the middle of the dealership, with a Mitsu ASX SUV on the left and another L200 Pick-up truck on the right.

"Where are the conventional passenger cars?" - I asked myself, after realizing that i was going to test drive the PHEV after all.

When i got into the dealership, and a few seconds after opening the PHEV front door, i heard a friendly  "Howdy" coming from the back, i turned around and saw the salesman, after asking the reason for my visit ("To know more about the Outlander" - I said), he asked me which version i was interested, the diesel or the PHEV, after i replying that i was interested in the second one, he smiled and showed me the unit in exhibition, explaining the differences that the plug-in version had regarding the more common diesel one, saying that it was a good compromise between the everyday commute ("You could do it using the electric motor") and weekend travels ("You have a fuel-efficient gas engine to do it").

A few moments later i asked if i could do a test drive and he said: "Sure!".

We headed for the test drive unit, after we were in, he showed me how to work with the different switches and when he told me that i could start to drive, i asked:

- Is there a route to follow? Where do you want to go?

"Anywhere you wanna go" - he replied.

And off we went.

(To be Continued)