Russia April 2019 (Draft)

Porsche and Jaguar Land Rover take over in growing market

The Russian PEV Market started the year smashing records, with 331 units so far this year, sales are up three-fold, and even the PEV Share started to move the needle... to 0.1%. But hey, you've got to start somewhere, right? 

Much of this has to do with local entrepreneurs doing the heavylifting, so a big thumbs up to them, as they are decisive in sparking dormant EV markets. 

Until last year, Tesla had been leaving the rest of the (few) EV competitors behind and earning the local trophies, but in 2018 things changed, with the Cayenne PHEV winning the Best Seller trophy, while closer to the end of the year, Land Rover landing their PHEV models, while the Jaguar i-Pace delivered its first units in December, so the picture today looks quite different from what we used to see here, with no Tesla in the podium, something unheard of since 2014, while the German Sports SUV continues in front, but this time both Range Rover models are relatively close to the leader, so there might be some changes until the year end.

Looking outside the podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is #4, beating both Tesla models and being the Best Selling BEV this year. 

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, this is a definetely a PHEV-friendly market, with 78% of plugins being plugin hybrid and only 22% BEV.

Pl	Russia	April	YTD	%	'17Pl
1 2	Porsche Cayenne PHEV LR Range Rover Sport PHEV	17 22	85 66	26 20	1 2
3	LR Range Rover PHEV	14	64	19	N/A
4	Jaguar i-Pace	10	49	15	7
	Others	21	67	20
TOTAL		84	331	100

Disclosure: There are estimates on the numbers, so do not take these numbers as carved in stone.

Markets Roundup December 2018

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2018:

China

* BAIC EC-Series #1 - Once again the winner, but in 2019 it will have more competition; 

* 1.1 million units - At some point i started to expect 1 million units, and as the year came to an end, not only it got there, but actually surpassed it!. And the Market Share reached 4.2%, a bit more than the 2%-something of the USA or Europe. 

USA

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - First win for the Californian, the first of a couple wins that the nameplate will have until the Model Y lands;

* 350.000 sales - Strong second half of the year, leading to a 2.1% share.

Europe

* Nissan Leaf #1 - The Japanese hatchback won its first title since 2013, but it shouldn't repeat the feat in 2019, as that trophy should go for the Tesla Model 3;

* 386.000 units - Sales continue to grow steadily, with the PEV share reaching 2.5%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now outselling PHEV's. 

Japan

* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 52.000 units - What can i say, sales have dropped 7% and the PEV share has dropped to 1%. Big disappointment.

Canada

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - The new darling in Canada. How could it be otherwise?

* 43.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.2%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - Veni, vidi, vici. In only 8 months in the market, the Hyundai model surpassed everyone else, scoring even a new all-time record (11.000 units). The Kona EV is the EV Disruptor in Korea.

* 31.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.7%. How high will it reach in 2019? 3%? 4%? 5%? 

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV turf, PEV share above 1% (1.4%);

Israel - Mercedes GLC350e was #1, market has beaten all records in 2018 and reached 1.4% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Malaysia - BMW is king here, market is stable at around 1.2% share;

Australia - Slow growth, with the Tesla Model S winning the Best Seller title;

Brazil - Symbolic sales (less than 200 units) in such a large market, BYD e5 was the Best Seller;

Russia - Ditto for Russia (less than 300 units), Nissan Leaf stole the 2018 title from Tesla;

Mexico - Nissan Leaf wins again, in a falling market;

UAE - Tesla turf;

South Africa - BMW are the only ones doing something here;

Colombia - Fast growth is starting to move the needle (0.3% share), Renault Twizy is a popular choice, same as the BMW i3;

Taiwan - Stagnating market (less than 200 units), this time the local Luxgen LCS EV won #1;

India - Considering the size of the market, the 2.000 units registered could be considered symbolic. Tata and Mahindra are the only ones on the market, with compliance vehicles;

Thailand - Less than 1.000 units, the 2018 trophy was still for BMW, but Hyundai should steal the 2019 title.

Russia Full Year 2017

Thanks to our Russian readers, we now have a good picture on the local EV scene, which is more interesting than previously thought.

The Russian plug-in market is showing a significant development, mostly thanks to second hand imports, if the Russian new EV market only had 95 registrations is 2017 (+28% regarding 2016), the second hand imports grew from 313 units in 2016 to... 1.047(!) last year.

NEW REGISTRATIONS

1. Tesla Model X (48 units)

2. Nissan Leaf (29)

3. Tesla Model S (14)

    Others (4)

In the small new BEV market, Tesla is the big winner, with 62 units, 40 of them in Moscow and 17 in St. Petersburg (These numbers would already justify a couple of stores, right? Are you reading, Tesla?), with Russian buyers showing a singular preference for the Model X.

In second place we had the Nissan Leaf, with 29 units, let's hope the local importer bets all the chips on the new 40 kWh version, so that the Japanese hatchback reaches the three digits, i mean, demand is there, as the second hand imports show...

USED IMPORTS

1. Nissan Leaf (932 units)

2. Mitsubishi i-Miev (50)

3. Tesla Model S (44)

    Others (21)

Akin to Ukraine, the Second Hand market for the Nissan Leaf is huge, according to sources, these units come from Asia, reason why most (524) of the Leaf units stay in the Far Eastern part of Russia.

The quirky thing about this market is the Mitsubishi i-Miev being a popular choice in the used market, with 50 units being imported last year, even outnumbering the Model S from Tesla.

Source: https://www.autonews.ru/news/5a676aae9a79474fdd77d9b1?from=newsfeed

Russia July 2016 (Draft)

Yes, Ladas have also joined the EV Bandwagon

I am always amazed with the high amount of readers that EV Sales has in Russia, so it's with pleasure that i can give back some data to them, a Russian EV Podium draft, based on the information i have this year.

Pl............Model............. YTD 2016

1.  Nissan Leaf ........................163

2.  Tesla Model S........................82

3.  Mitsubishi I-Miev....................52

With the year tally at around 400 units, registrations are tripling regarding last year, so this can be the first year that plug-in sales reach four digits.

If last year Tesla ended Mitsubishi's undisputed lead on this market (The Japanese was the Best Selling brand since 2011), this year it is the Nissan Leaf (Used Imports?) that leads the way, followed by the Tesla Model S and the Mitsubishi I-Miev, the tiny city car is an ever popular plug-in model here, which along with electric Ladas, make the two most unusual trends of this EV market.

With the imminent arrival of the modern Lada Vesta EV (Above), expect Lada to have a decent product to offer, unlike the previous model (Below), and finally start to run at the same pace of their foreign counterparts.

Electric Lada Kalina EL

Russia July 2015

A little treat dedicated to our many readers in Russia, here are this year documented sales ranking for plug-ins:

P...............Model...................2015
1.  Tesla Model S......................30
2.  Nissan Leaf...........................5
3.  Mitsubishi I-Miev.................4



As we can see, reports that Russian millionaires are inloved with Tesla are real, despite Tesla not being officialy present in Russia and the fact that the closest service center is located in Finland(!), some 30 new Model S were registered this year, this is an untapped market by the american brand that could easily sell in the hundreds per month, hopefully kickstarting the EV Market here.

Besides these official numbers, there are also an undetermined amount of Kia Soul EV and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, ordered by Google Russia  and Rosseti (Utility company).

A second way to expand the EV market is if Lada starts to make electric cars in significant numbers and not just for show... 

Russia December 2013

A little treat dedicated to our many readers in Russia, here are the sales ranking for plug-ins for the full year of 2013:

P............Model...................2013....2012
1.  Mitsubishi I-Miev.............211.......49
2.  Lada EL Kalina.................13.......N/A
3.  e-mobile............................11.......N/A
4.  Mit. Outlander PHEV.........6........N/A

Source: autoblog espanol

As we can see, sales jumped fivefold from one year to the other to a total of 241 units and with Nissan and Renault joining the ranking this year, it seems that sales will continue to grow exponentially.

Markets Roundup December 2013 (Special Edition)

Ford C-Max Energi: Miss

I. A Year Ago - Hits and Misses

In the end of last January, i have made some sales predictions regarding 2013, let's see how they worked out:

USA

* 15.000 sales for the C-Max Energi - Not even half (7.154), miss;

* 6.000 sales for the Fusion Energi - 6.090 units sold, right on target;

* 12.000 sales for Tesla - 17.650 sales, Tesla consistently outpaced predictions, including their owns;

* 90-110.000 sales for the US EV market - 96.034 units, comfortably within the prediction boundaries.

Japan

* 6.000 units for the Outlander PHEV - Some 10.000 sold this year, with production problems. Not  even Mitsu was this expecting such a sales success;

* 29.000 sales for the Japanese EV Market - Around 30.000 units, hit;

France

* 2.000-4.000 sales for the Renault Zoe - 5.511 sales. Looking back, i was surprisingly skeptical of the Zoe, i mean, the french supermini wasn't a sales success, but it also wasn't as bad as i predicted; 

*14-16.000 sales for the French EV Market - 14.905 sales, right in the middle of the prediction boundaries.

Germany

* 10.000 sales for the German EV Market - 6.714 sales, well behind expectations. Miss.

Netherlands

* 2.200 sales for the Prius Plug-In - 2.364 units, saved by the last quarter sales. Hit;

* 3.500 sales for the Opel Ampera - With 2.208 units sold, even the sales from the last quarter weren't enough to reach near the prediction. Big miss; 

* 9.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - 23.170 sales, 9.311 of them in December. Who would of thought?

Norway

7.000-8.500 sales in Norway - 8.669 sales, slightly above the best expectations. At the time i was speaking of 6% EV Share like something amazing, as it turns out, the EV Share in Norway is now at 6,10%...

Global EV Sales

200.000 units - Still with data coming in, the number already exceeds 208.000, so 2013 was a good year for plug-ins.


II. Engines of Growth

* By EV Share 

Two of them are easy to discover, after all, plug-in performance were profusely documented in Norway (6,10% in '13 vs 3,12 in '12) and the Netherlands (5,55% in '13 vs 1,10% in '12). But the third market is something of a surprise, with the EV Share in Iceland jumping from 0,21% in 2012 to 0,94% in '13! With all the hydro-thermal energy they have and the small distances associated to an island, EV sales in Iceland should continue to grow exponentially and maybe become something like a Second Norway...

* By Volume

EV Share is important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case we had the USA as the main contributor, with more 41.084 units sold regarding 2012, the Netherlands, with more 17.587 sales, and...China, even with a miserable 0,08% EV Share, what matters here is volume and 0,08% of 22 million cars is still a lot of cars, and plug-ins sold more 4.851 regarding last year.


III. 2013 vs 2012

Let's compare #1's of this year with the ones of 2012:

Volt - USA (In '12 - Volt); Canada (Volt)

Leaf - Norway (In '12 - Leaf); UK (Leaf); Spain (Twizy); Denmark (Fluence ZE); Australia (I-Miev); Estonia (I-Miev); Iceland (I-Miev)

Outlander PHEV - Japan (In '12 - Prius Plug-In); Netherlands (Opel Ampera);

Zoe - France (In '12 - Kangoo ZE); Switzerland (Twizy); Austria (Twizy)

V60 Plug-In - Belgium (In '12 - Twizy); Sweden (Prius Plug-In); Finland (Prius Plug-In)

Twizy - Italy (In '12 - Twizy); Portugal (Twizy)

Fortwo ED - Germany (In '12 - Twizy)

Fluence ZE - Hong Kong (In '12 - Leaf)

QQ3 EV - China (In '12 - QQ3 EV)

Examining this, we can see North America as a Volt stronghold, the Leaf stealing trophies from the I-Miev, the Outlander and V60 doing the same at the Prius, the Zoe cannibalizing #1's in Central Europe and the Twizy resisting extinction in the south of the continent.


IV. Other Markets

For some reason (Low volumes, rare data, etc) some markets have been left-out, here is a chance to know some of them:

Israel: Renault Fluence ZE - 436 units; Nissan Leaf (24).

Czech Republic: Nissan Leaf - 16 units; Peugeot iOn (8); Citröen C-Zero (6); BMW i3 (3); Opel Ampera (2); Fisker Karma (1); Porsche Panamera Plug-In (1).

Poland: Nissan Leaf - 15 units; Opel Ampera (5); Tesla Model S (4); BMW i3 (4); Renault Zoe (2); Renault Twizy (2); Smart Fortwo ED (1).

Romania: Renault Fluence ZE - 28 units; Citröen C-Zero (2); Nissan Leaf (1); Toyota Prius Plug-In (1); Tesla Model S (1).

Bulgaria: Renault Twizy - 14 units.

Russia: Mitsubishi I-Miev - 70 units.

Morocco: Renault Twizy - 7 units.

Mexico: Nissan Leaf - 73 units.


V. Predictions for the G7

USA - 110-130.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

Japan - 36-39.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

France - 15-18.000 units/year, Zoe #1;

Netherlands - 15-19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

Germany - 10.000 units/year, German Car #1;

China - 23.000-28.000 units/year, Qin #1.