Mexico January 2020 (Top 5 Draft)

Tesla Model 3 is #1 in Mexico

We have a new market here, with a draft of what's going on in Mexico, one of the most promising Latin American EV markets, along with Colombia and Costa Rica, more due to its size and proximity to the USA, than actual market share (it is now at 0,1%).

Some 100 plug-ins were sold in January, up 20% YoY, but last year this market almost tripled, mostly thanks to the Tesla Model 3 introduction, that took this market by storm, winning last year Best Seller title by a wide margin, tripling sales of the #2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV.

Looking at the current models ranking, the Tesla Model 3 started the year in its usual place, Number One, followed by the Chinese JAC eSei2 EV, the Mexican name for the JAC iEV7S small crossover.

The Chinese brand is selling 3 electric models in Mexico, this being one of the most interesting butterfly effects happening in the EV World, after the Chinese subsidies cut last summer, and with the subsequent sales falling off a cliff in its domestic market, many Chinese brands turned overseas to try and keep the factories running, with JAC, among others, launching their EVs in Latin American markets, like Mexico. 

The remaining Top 5 positions went for the #3 BMW i3, with the Porsche Cayenne PHEV and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV tied in #4.

In a market influenced by its northern neighbor, the Chevrolet Bolt is also present, with 5 units, but for some reason, the small hatchback has never caught on here.

Pl	Model	2020
1	Tesla Model 3	30
2	JAC eSei2 EV	15
3 4 4	BMW i3 Mit. Outlander PHEV Por. Cayenne PHEV Others	12 8 8 27
	TOTAL	100

Markets Roundup - December 2019

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2019:

China

* BAIC EU-Series #1 - First time winner, but in 2020 it will have more competition; 

* 1.2 million units - What a roller coaster, great first half of the year, then after the incentives change, a stark drop, with December ending with a sign of hope. And the Market Share reached 5.5%, above the share of the USA or Europe. 

USA

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Second win for the Californian, but in 2020 the Model Y lands, so...Enjoy it while you can, Model 3;

* 325.000 sales - Poor second half of the year, leading to slight drop, to 2.0% share.

Europe

* Tesla Model 2 #1 - First title for Tesla in Europe, to be repeated in 2020, but in 2021, things should become more interesting;

* 564.000 units - Sales increased the pace, with the PEV share reaching 3.6%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now owning 64% of the market. 

Japan

* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 44.000 units - What can i say, sales have (again) dropped and the PEV share has dropped to 0.8%. Disappointing.

Canada

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Canada's darling. At least until the Model y lands...

* 51.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.6%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - A new year, a new win for the Crossover, scoring another all-time record (14.000 units). The Kona EV is the leader in Korea.

* 34.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.9%. A mention to the Hyundai Nexo Fuel Cell, that registered 4,000 units, leading to a 0.2% share, being the only place FCEVs started to become common(ish).

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Tesla Model 3 lands and immediately becomes the Best Seller. PEV share jumped to 2.6% (up from 1.4% in 2018);

Israel - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was #1, market has beaten the 2018 records and reached 1.5% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Australia - Doubling sales (9,000 units), with the Tesla Model 3 stealing the show and winning the Best Seller title. The market share needle is finally starting to move (0.9% PEV share);

Brazil - Volvo XC60 PHEV was the Best Seller, in a year that things finally started to move upwards (1,500 units), although share wise, we are still rock bottom (0.1%);

Mexico - Tesla Model 3 steals the show and pulls the market up (1,400 units in total), but share wise, it is still in its infancy (0.1%);

Colombia - Fast growth is moving up the needle (0.5% share), with the BMW i3 becoming the 2019 Best Seller;

South Africa - Jaguar and Land Rover came into play and together with BMW, they are the only ones pulling the market up, allowing it to reach record heights (300 units...);

Taiwan - Tesla Model 3 disrupts the market, making it grow 5-fold, while the plugin share finally starts to move (0.4% share);

Hong Kong - Although still far from the 2017 record (4,000 units), the 2019 result (2,000 units) allowed it to come alive again and reach some 5% share;

Singapore - A record 1,400 units allowed this market to reach 1.9%, with the 2019 Best Seller being the Hyundai Kona EV; 

Markets Roundup December 2018

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2018:

China

* BAIC EC-Series #1 - Once again the winner, but in 2019 it will have more competition; 

* 1.1 million units - At some point i started to expect 1 million units, and as the year came to an end, not only it got there, but actually surpassed it!. And the Market Share reached 4.2%, a bit more than the 2%-something of the USA or Europe. 

USA

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - First win for the Californian, the first of a couple wins that the nameplate will have until the Model Y lands;

* 350.000 sales - Strong second half of the year, leading to a 2.1% share.

Europe

* Nissan Leaf #1 - The Japanese hatchback won its first title since 2013, but it shouldn't repeat the feat in 2019, as that trophy should go for the Tesla Model 3;

* 386.000 units - Sales continue to grow steadily, with the PEV share reaching 2.5%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now outselling PHEV's. 

Japan

* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 52.000 units - What can i say, sales have dropped 7% and the PEV share has dropped to 1%. Big disappointment.

Canada

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - The new darling in Canada. How could it be otherwise?

* 43.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.2%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - Veni, vidi, vici. In only 8 months in the market, the Hyundai model surpassed everyone else, scoring even a new all-time record (11.000 units). The Kona EV is the EV Disruptor in Korea.

* 31.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.7%. How high will it reach in 2019? 3%? 4%? 5%? 

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV turf, PEV share above 1% (1.4%);

Israel - Mercedes GLC350e was #1, market has beaten all records in 2018 and reached 1.4% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Malaysia - BMW is king here, market is stable at around 1.2% share;

Australia - Slow growth, with the Tesla Model S winning the Best Seller title;

Brazil - Symbolic sales (less than 200 units) in such a large market, BYD e5 was the Best Seller;

Russia - Ditto for Russia (less than 300 units), Nissan Leaf stole the 2018 title from Tesla;

Mexico - Nissan Leaf wins again, in a falling market;

UAE - Tesla turf;

South Africa - BMW are the only ones doing something here;

Colombia - Fast growth is starting to move the needle (0.3% share), Renault Twizy is a popular choice, same as the BMW i3;

Taiwan - Stagnating market (less than 200 units), this time the local Luxgen LCS EV won #1;

India - Considering the size of the market, the 2.000 units registered could be considered symbolic. Tata and Mahindra are the only ones on the market, with compliance vehicles;

Thailand - Less than 1.000 units, the 2018 trophy was still for BMW, but Hyundai should steal the 2019 title.

Markets Roundup December 2013 (Special Edition)

Ford C-Max Energi: Miss

I. A Year Ago - Hits and Misses

In the end of last January, i have made some sales predictions regarding 2013, let's see how they worked out:

USA

* 15.000 sales for the C-Max Energi - Not even half (7.154), miss;

* 6.000 sales for the Fusion Energi - 6.090 units sold, right on target;

* 12.000 sales for Tesla - 17.650 sales, Tesla consistently outpaced predictions, including their owns;

* 90-110.000 sales for the US EV market - 96.034 units, comfortably within the prediction boundaries.

Japan

* 6.000 units for the Outlander PHEV - Some 10.000 sold this year, with production problems. Not  even Mitsu was this expecting such a sales success;

* 29.000 sales for the Japanese EV Market - Around 30.000 units, hit;

France

* 2.000-4.000 sales for the Renault Zoe - 5.511 sales. Looking back, i was surprisingly skeptical of the Zoe, i mean, the french supermini wasn't a sales success, but it also wasn't as bad as i predicted; 

*14-16.000 sales for the French EV Market - 14.905 sales, right in the middle of the prediction boundaries.

Germany

* 10.000 sales for the German EV Market - 6.714 sales, well behind expectations. Miss.

Netherlands

* 2.200 sales for the Prius Plug-In - 2.364 units, saved by the last quarter sales. Hit;

* 3.500 sales for the Opel Ampera - With 2.208 units sold, even the sales from the last quarter weren't enough to reach near the prediction. Big miss; 

* 9.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - 23.170 sales, 9.311 of them in December. Who would of thought?

Norway

7.000-8.500 sales in Norway - 8.669 sales, slightly above the best expectations. At the time i was speaking of 6% EV Share like something amazing, as it turns out, the EV Share in Norway is now at 6,10%...

Global EV Sales

200.000 units - Still with data coming in, the number already exceeds 208.000, so 2013 was a good year for plug-ins.


II. Engines of Growth

* By EV Share 

Two of them are easy to discover, after all, plug-in performance were profusely documented in Norway (6,10% in '13 vs 3,12 in '12) and the Netherlands (5,55% in '13 vs 1,10% in '12). But the third market is something of a surprise, with the EV Share in Iceland jumping from 0,21% in 2012 to 0,94% in '13! With all the hydro-thermal energy they have and the small distances associated to an island, EV sales in Iceland should continue to grow exponentially and maybe become something like a Second Norway...

* By Volume

EV Share is important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case we had the USA as the main contributor, with more 41.084 units sold regarding 2012, the Netherlands, with more 17.587 sales, and...China, even with a miserable 0,08% EV Share, what matters here is volume and 0,08% of 22 million cars is still a lot of cars, and plug-ins sold more 4.851 regarding last year.


III. 2013 vs 2012

Let's compare #1's of this year with the ones of 2012:

Volt - USA (In '12 - Volt); Canada (Volt)

Leaf - Norway (In '12 - Leaf); UK (Leaf); Spain (Twizy); Denmark (Fluence ZE); Australia (I-Miev); Estonia (I-Miev); Iceland (I-Miev)

Outlander PHEV - Japan (In '12 - Prius Plug-In); Netherlands (Opel Ampera);

Zoe - France (In '12 - Kangoo ZE); Switzerland (Twizy); Austria (Twizy)

V60 Plug-In - Belgium (In '12 - Twizy); Sweden (Prius Plug-In); Finland (Prius Plug-In)

Twizy - Italy (In '12 - Twizy); Portugal (Twizy)

Fortwo ED - Germany (In '12 - Twizy)

Fluence ZE - Hong Kong (In '12 - Leaf)

QQ3 EV - China (In '12 - QQ3 EV)

Examining this, we can see North America as a Volt stronghold, the Leaf stealing trophies from the I-Miev, the Outlander and V60 doing the same at the Prius, the Zoe cannibalizing #1's in Central Europe and the Twizy resisting extinction in the south of the continent.


IV. Other Markets

For some reason (Low volumes, rare data, etc) some markets have been left-out, here is a chance to know some of them:

Israel: Renault Fluence ZE - 436 units; Nissan Leaf (24).

Czech Republic: Nissan Leaf - 16 units; Peugeot iOn (8); Citröen C-Zero (6); BMW i3 (3); Opel Ampera (2); Fisker Karma (1); Porsche Panamera Plug-In (1).

Poland: Nissan Leaf - 15 units; Opel Ampera (5); Tesla Model S (4); BMW i3 (4); Renault Zoe (2); Renault Twizy (2); Smart Fortwo ED (1).

Romania: Renault Fluence ZE - 28 units; Citröen C-Zero (2); Nissan Leaf (1); Toyota Prius Plug-In (1); Tesla Model S (1).

Bulgaria: Renault Twizy - 14 units.

Russia: Mitsubishi I-Miev - 70 units.

Morocco: Renault Twizy - 7 units.

Mexico: Nissan Leaf - 73 units.


V. Predictions for the G7

USA - 110-130.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

Japan - 36-39.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

France - 15-18.000 units/year, Zoe #1;

Netherlands - 15-19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

Germany - 10.000 units/year, German Car #1;

China - 23.000-28.000 units/year, Qin #1.