Thursday, August 17, 2017

Finland July 2017

Image result for Porsche Panamera vs Volvo S90
Scandinavian Classic, now with a Plug in it

Cool Kids land in hot market


Finland has become one of my favorite markets to report, because news here are always good, and July confirmed the trend, with a total of 232 EV's sold, up 121% regarding the same month last year, with YTD now growing 89% YoY, to 1.490 units, with the EV Share up again to a record 2%.

Looking at the models ranking, the Mercedes GLC350e is the unchallenged ruler, rising from #15 in 2016 to an undisputed leadership (21% share, 13% above the runner-up), with 315 units.
But the runner-up place is pretty much up for grab, with the VW Passat GTE trying to keep several players behind it, like the #3 Audi Q7 e-Tron (Only 3 units behind), #4 Volvo XC90 PHEV (-23 units), or even the #5 Tesla Model S (-29).

The Second Spot might even be within the range of the #7 BMW 530e, this year best selling rookie, that was also #2 in July, ahead of another two recently landed models, sure to make waves: The Porsche Panamera PHEV (21 deliveries) and the Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins (19), with the Swede models certain to be a popular choice in this market.

Looking elsewhere, the Renault Zoe and BMW i3 are running for their class leadership, although on a far lower place that we are used to, in #16 and #17, respectively, while another small(ish) BEV landed in Finland, with the Kia Soul EV registering their first units this Summer.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Mercedes (24%) is in the lead, followed by BMW (19%, up 1%) in Second, with Tesla and Volkswagen running for Third Place, both with 10% share.

PlFinland
July
 YTD '17
   %
Pl '16
1
2
3
4
Mercedes GLC350e
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Volvo XC90 T8
51
5
13
10
315
114
111
91
21
8
7
6
15
2
9
1
5Tesla Model S
10
85
6
5
6
7
BMW 330e
BMW 530e
5
22
74
66
5
4
3
N/A
7Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV9664
6 7
9
10
11
12
13
14
Tesla Model X
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Nissan Leaf
BMW X5 40e
Mercedes E350e
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
6
7
2
7
5
8
63
59
54
45
35
34
4
4
4
3
2
2
14
7
7
4
N/A
N/A
15Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
7
31
2
10
16
17
17
19
20
21
22
23
23
25
25
25

Renault Zoe
BMW i3
Porsche Panamera PHEV
Kia Optima PHEV
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Audi A3 e-Tron
Volvo S/V90 PHEV
BMW 740e
Mercedes GLE500e
BMW i8
Kia Soul EV
Volkswagen e-Golf
Others
4

21
5
5
1
19
2
1

1

7
30
29
26
24
23
21
20
19
16
6
6
6
22
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1

TOTAL2321.490 100


Source: trafi.fi

Monday, August 14, 2017

China July 2017

Image result for BYD Song DM
The Song twins are here to rock the stage!


BYD Song is China’s Model Y

Some 44.700 new EV's started zooming the Chinese streets last month, the second best month ever, with the market growing at 37% regarding the same month last year and pulling the YTD count to over 227.000 units, up 40% YoY, while regarding overall stock, a milestone has been reached, with over one million plug-ins being registered in China, from 2009 until now, the first market to reach a seven-digit figure, representing 40% of all plug-car stock in the World (Around 2.6 millions).

As consequence of all this, the PEV market share grew once again, this time to 1.6%, beating last year record (1.45%), expect that as the year progresses and sales expand, the Chinese PEV market surpasses the 2% share by year end.

This is still a highly protected market, where 93% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 7% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, and the remaining 1% divided by all other auto makers. Interestingly, the Buick Velite 5 (Thinly disguised Chinese Chevrolet Volt) was for the first time the best-selling foreign nameplate in China, with 382 units.

In July the much awaited BYD Song PHEV won its first best-selling award, with over 5.000 deliveries, beating both the Zhidou D2 EV and the BAIC EC-Series, while BYD itself has beaten for the second time in a row the Manufacturers all-time sales record, by registering 11.207 units, stepping up the pace and increasing the distance to the runner-up Beijing Auto.


Here’s July Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

 Image result for BYD Song DM
#1 – BYD Song PHEV: This is BYD’s “Model Y”, a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version (The BEV had 1.500 deliveries in July, its first full sales month), in only its third full sales month, it registered 5.069 units, the second best score ever for a BYD model, with the Tang record of 5.503 units (Back in December ’15) probably being beaten this summer. This is a disruptive model (Why? Plug-in SUV, 0-100kms/h in 4.9s, price tag of 41300 USD…), I believe the full potential of this version should be around 5-6.000 units/month, adding some 3-4.000 units from the BEV version, it should be enough to have the Song to the tune of 10.000 units/month, both versions counted. And these are 2017 targets, by 2018 BYD should have even more ambitious goals for it and new models to add to their lineup, but more on that below…

Image result for BAIC EC
#2 – BAIC EC-Series: A consistent seller this year, the BAIC EC-Series, formerly known as EC180, sold 4.068 units in July, the little city EV seems to have found its natural sales level around 4.000 units per month, which is a bit disappointing, as this is a decent design, with competitive specs (20 kWh battery) and price (19.000€).Will it be enough to win the 2017 Best Seller award? Doubt it, but if so, it would be a first for BAIC and the first time since 2013 that a BYD wouldn’t win the trophy.

Image result for zhidou d2 ev
#3 – Zhidou D2 EV: Bare-basics city vehicle that doesn’t inspire anyone, but continues to be delivered in large quantities (3.796 units in July), probably thanks to big fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy class) in some European countries, with the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 kms range, 90 kms max.speed, all this for some 16.000€.

Image result for Chery eQ 
#4 – Chery eQ EV: The funky Chery eQ sold 3.264 units in July, allowing it to stay in the Top 5, this is one of my favorite Chinese urban EVs, for 22.000 Euro before incentives you get a decently equipped city car, with 22kWh battery, with the only drawback being the weak engine (56 hp, 100 kms/h top speed). Add a bit more power to the engine and you could have a valuable competitor to the current crop of worldwide city EV's, as the VW e-Up! is pricey, the Mitsubishi triplets are showing their age, and the Smart Forfour ED…Well, it looks too goofy for my taste (What were Smart designers smoking when did this last generation?!?).

Image result for BYD e5
#5 – BYD e5: The Plain Jane BYD e5 sedan continues delivering decent performances, with 2.946 units being registered last month. A favorite among taxi companies, along with its e6 older brother, the low key e5 actually has a lot going for it, spec-wise: 305 kms range from a 48 kWh battery and a healthy 218 hp, all for 230.000 Yuan (33.400$). A wolf in sheep’s clothing, isn’t it?
  
Image result for BYD Yuan
Yuan: BYD's next piece of the puzzle
  
Year-to-Date Ranking – Hear that? It’s the Song coming.

The big news were of course the rise and rise of the BYD Song PHEV, jumping four positions to #4, becoming at the same time the Best Selling SUV and PHEV in the ranking.

Expect in August the Song to surpass its e5 sibling and reach the podium, as for the pole position, the difference could be too big to cut short, but with BYD, you never know, right?

A reference for the Chery eQ, climbing two positions to #7, while the Changan Benni EV also did well, joining the Top 10 last month.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (21%, up 2%) is cementing its position at the Iron Throne, distancing itself from the previous leader BAIC (17%), with Warp Speed now engaged, expect BYD to distance itself from the competition even further.

In Third Place we have Zhidou, with 10% share, but with SAIC now on its tail (9%, up 2%), it will be only a matter of time until the Shanghai-based manufacturer surpasses it, in its bid to become the Third of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.

As a side note, if there were bets surrounding the Global Best Selling Manufacturer in 2017, I would go with BYD, yes, most are betting on Tesla, yes, Tesla is ahead by 7.000 units, but I would still bet of them, not only because of the Song twins, but in a couple of months, BYD will also launch the Yuan crossover (Think Opel Mokka/Buick Encore) in both BEV and PHEV versions, adding some precious thousands of units to the current ones.

Also, in 2018 the only company able to steal the show from Tesla will be…BYD. A new Tang and the Song MPV are scheduled for launch, adding even more volume to the company sales. I’m not saying it will, but it is the only company with enough pace to prevent Tesla from finally winning the Best Selling PEV Manufacturer trophy, something it has been pursuing without success since 2008.

Incidentally, it is the same number of years that the Boston Celtics have been without trophies.

Will both Tesla and the Celtics break the spell in 2018?



Pl
China
July
YTD
%
1
Zhidou D2 EV
3796
22489
10
2
BAIC EC-Series
4068
22007
10
3
BYD e5
2946
13772
6
4
BYD Song PHEV
5069
11907
5
5
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV
1606
10811
5
6
JAC iEV6S
2078
10100
4
7
Chery eQ
3264
9869
4
8
Geely Emgrand EV
1715
9697
4
9
BYD Tang
977
8479
4
10
Changan Benni EV
1645
7709
3
11
JMC E100
1441
7577
3
12
Zotye E200
1281
7230
3
13
BAIC EU-Series
1123
6814
3
14
Tesla Model S   e)
160
5295
2
15
Zotye Cloud EV
1079
4766
2
16
Tesla Model X   e)
150
4664
2
17
BYD Qin EV300
145
4262
2
18
Horki 300E   e)
500
4199
3
19
JMC E200
257
3914
2
20
BAIC EX200
150
3727
2
Others
11229
48684

TOTAL
44679
227972

UK Q1 2017 (Top 5 Draft)



Nissan Leaf Jumps ahead

An impressive 12.526 plug-ins were sold in the Q1 2017, up 10% YoY, with the EV Share at a record 1.6%, up from 1.5% in 2016.

Looking at the models ranking, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is surprisingly being beaten by the Nissan Leaf, with the Nissan model leading the ranking for the first time since 2013.

A good performance for the BMW 330e, in the Third Spot, with almost 1.500 units, beating its executive arch-rival, the Mercedes C350e, by a sizeable amount.

The remaining Top 5 position went to another BMW, with the i3 managing to beat the Tesla models and stay at #5.

In the manufacturers ranking, we have a surprise in the Top Spot, with BMW in the lead, with 23% share, followed by Nissan (21%) and Mitsubishi (15%).

In 2017 Fuel Cells had their Year One on the UK market, with just 10 units being registered, with the Toyota Mirai registering eight of them. 

PlUKMarch 2017%Pl. '16
1Nissan Leaf9982.459202
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV7061.930151
3
4
5

BMW 330e
Mercedes C350e
BMW i3
Others
303
191
275
1.709
1.469
1.052
933
4.683
12
8
7
38
4
2
5


TOTAL4.18212.526100