#3 Tesla still behind #2 Geely
Looking just at BEVs, Tesla recovered the 2nd spot, but is unlikely to reach #1 BYD
Petrol (36% share, down 24% YoY) and Diesel (9% share, -28% YoY) are in a death spiral, while HEVs (35% share, +35% YoY) continue to grow and are becoming quickly the preferred powertrain in the continent.
At this pace, Diesel will be dead before the end of the decade, while Petrol should follow it a couple of years later (2031? 2032?), leaving the European market fully electrified by then.
But with the EU's 2035 target demanding 100% zero emission vehicles, will the market be ready to go 100% BEV in 2035?
The Tesla Model Y is back at #1, but with sales far below the levels of last year, it won't be a walk in the park. The Model 3 could even lose the runner-up status this year.
The VW ID.4 and Renault 5 could be the ones to get in the way of the two US models.
A reference to the success of the VW ID.7, it might be the first direct competitor to Tesla in the midsize segment.
VW Group is firmly in the lead, followed by the BMW Group and a recovering Stellantis.
27% BEV Share so far, in 2025.
45% share if we include PHEVs.
Expect H1 to end with the PEV share above 50% and the last months of the year should end above 66% share (BEV+PHEV).
Even at a moderate growth rates, say an average of 15% per year, the Chinese automotive market should be fully electrified by 2030!
Xiaomi SU7 already appears in #4, being the best selling sedan in China, all powertrains counted!
Will the upcoming Xiaomi YU7 beat the SU7's success and become China's Best Selling Model, all powertrains included?
BYD recovered ground, all while Tesla dropped out of the Top 5.
Is Tesla becoming irrelevant in China?
- Looking at the bright side of Tesla, the Model Y is still the Best Selling EV in the World;
- But the surprise of the month was the Geely Geome Xingyuan (Who?!?!), that started the year in 3rd and relegated the Tesla Model 3 to 3rd;
- Oh, and a certain Xiaomi SU7 is already 6th globally...despite only being sold in China.
- Podium with BYD, Tesla and Geely;
- Best Selling Legacy brand (Volkswagen) is only 5th;
- Geely Group has three brands (Geely, Volvo and Lynk & Co) in the Top 20.
- Whether BEV only, or adding PHEVs, the podium is the same - #1 BEV; #2 Geely; #3 Tesla;
- The other two positions also remain the same, with or without PHEVs - #4 VW Group and #5 SAIC.
Plugless hybrids continue to grow, and are now the best selling powertrain, with 35% share of the total market.
The last months of the year should end around 30% share (BEV+PHEV)!
The VW Group placed 4 models in the Top 6, with the VW ID.4 winning its first #1 in years.
VW Group starts the year strong, with over 26% share.
42% share if we include PHEVs.
The last months of the year should end above 66% share (BEV+PHEV)!
And even at a moderate growth rates, say an average of 15% per year, the Chinese automotive market should be fully electrified by 2030!
Geely places the small Xinguan in #2. A sign that the BYD Song and Tesla Model Y will have another model trying to surpass them in 2025?
Geely is rising (fast). Should BYD start to worry?
Singapore, January 2025
- BYD was the best selling brand in the overall market, with 566 units.
Norway, January 2025
- 96% BEV share, a new record
#1 - Toyota BZ4X, 1.188 units;
#2 - VW ID.4, 830 units;
#3 - Nissan Ariya, 544 units.
New Zealand, January 2025
- BYD, 7th brand overall, with 365 units;
- BYD Shark, 10th model overall, 195 units.
Austria, January 2025
BYD Seal, 7th overall, 381 units.
Uruguay, January 2025
BYD was the 6th brand overall, with 257 units.
Turkiye / Turkey, January 2025
- BYD was the 10th brand overall, 2.758 units.
- In the models table, the BYD Seal U (BYD Song) was 5th, with 1.743 units, and the locally made Togg T10X was 7th, with 1.570 units.
Thailand, Full year 2024
- BYD was the 6th brand overall, 26.795 units.
- In the models table, the BYD Dolphin was 10th, with 13.386 units.