Europe December 2019

Tesla Model 3 shatters records in hot market

The European passenger plug-in market registered a record 77,000 registrations in December (+88%!), with the Dutch market helping to pull the market up, and BEVs (+91% YoY) growing faster than PHEV (+81%), with the powertrain breakdown becoming even more BEV-friendly  (68% BEVs / 32% PHEVs in December vs 64% / 36% in 2019).

The 64% share in 2019 is a massive 13% growth for pure electrics regarding last year, when they had just 51% share, and i remember at the time, we were celebrating the fact that for the first time in 4 years, BEVs were finally outselling plugin hybrids...Oh, how the times have changed!

Last month sales surge pulled the final 2019 count to a record 564,000 units, a 45% increase regarding 2018, while the brilliant performance in December allowed plugins to reach to 6.1% (4.1% for BEVs alone) last month, pulling the final 2019 PEV share to a record 3.6% (2.2% BEVs), above the 2.5% result of 2018.

Will the plugin share reach 6% this year? More? Please place your bets.

In December several models profited from the Netherlands sales rush to perform record results, and none did it more spectacularly than the Tesla Model 3, with the Californian shattering the all-time record in Europe (22,137 units in December), while the runner-up Renault Zoe also pulled a Year Best performance last month, meaning that the French hatchback has already ramped up the revised version, and should be preparing to reach new heights in 2020.

Another big winner from the Dutch sales fever was the Audi e-Tron, that reached 3rd in December, with a record 4,225 units, it seems the Big Audi has already surpassed its own production hell and is ready to find its demand limits soon, while the veteran VW e-Golf was 4th, with an amazing 2,998 units, its best result in 13 months, so with this kind of performances, the old geezer seems to be saying: “ID-who? Never heard of it!”

A final mention to the #6 BMW 330e, that registered 2,996 units, the model’s 4th(!) record month in row. With the Bavarian suffering the biggest bleed from the Model 3 black hole effect, BMW is going all in for the 330e patch, in order to cut the bleeding, at least until the i4 antidote is not deployed.  

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 Tesla Model 3– The poster child for electro mobility had a memorable month, by delivering 22,137 units in one month, a new monthly record for any single plugin in Europe, with the Model 3 benefiting from the Dutch EV year end rush, by scoring 12,053 units in the Netherlands, but deliveries in the UK also did a big contribution, with some 2,700, while there were three other markets with four-digit performances (1,251 units in Norway, 1,188 in Switzerland and 1,250 in France), with several other markets also hitting sizeable three-digit scores. With part of China’s Model 3 demand now being locally made, it is expected that Tesla will find more room to satisfy its domestic market, as well as Europe, so we should start to know the organic demand of the Model 3 on this side of the pond this year, in what could be the Model 3’s peak year here, as in 2021 a certain Model Y will create its own black hole effect...    

#2 Renault Zoe– The 4,700 deliveries of December meant falling deliveries (-14%), but it was still the French hatchback best result in 2019, meaning that the production ramp up of the revised version is mostly done, and now it is ready to start 2020 in on a full charge, something that will prove to be important further along the year, because while its most direct competitors (Peugeot 208 EV, Opel Corsa EV, VW ID.3...) will spend the beggining of the year trying not to screw the production ramp up, the Zoe will be delivering thousands of units across the continent from day 1. Back to December, France pulled the usual heavy lifting, with 2,097 units, but this time the Netherlands also had a four-digit score, with a record 1,020 units, with Germany (780 units) and Switzerland (385) being also major markets for the cheeky EV.

#3 Audi e-Tron – With the initial production problems now a thing of the past, the big Audi hit a record 4,225 units last month, winning its first monthly podium seat. And while most of them (3,054 units) went to the Netherlands (#BiK change), the fact is that e-Tron has good growth prospects for 2020, thanks to the new (and cheaper) 71 kWh battery version and the launch of the interesting Sportback version, that adds a bit of flair to the dull exterior design of the regular e-Tron. But it wasn’t just the Netherlands pulling the e-Tron’s (very) heavy weight, as Norway (282 units), Switzerland (245) and Germany (182) also helped the Audi EV to reach the medals.

#4 Volkswagen e-Golf– The evergreen German model hit 2,998 units last month, up 44%(!) YoY, being its best performance in the last 13 months, which is an amazing result for a model that is supposed to be in sunset-mode for months now and has its sucessor now starting to roll of the lines in the Zwickau factory. It seems VW is going all in into plugins, milking everything it can from its current best selling electric model. Regarding the December performances, the Volkswagen EV main markets were Germany (764), Netherlands (691), Norway (525) and Switzerland (348). By the way, have you noticed that Switzerland features among the major markets of all top 4 EV’s? Will Switzerland be the next Norway?

  

#5 BMW i3– The German hatchback was up 21% in December, to 2,997 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (At least until the Mini Cooper EV and the Honda e land, it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales (possibly making it a future classic), following the EV bubble growth. Looking at individual countries, Germany (630 units) and the Netherlands (768), were its largest markets, with the following being the UK (320) and France (485).

 

   

Looking at the 2019 ranking, the Model 3 can say like Julius Ceaser: “Veni, Vidi, Vici”, or “I came, I saw, I conquered”, after giving a couple of months of advance to the competition in the beggining of the year, the Californian basically kicked everyone’s butts on its way to the top, leading the table since last March, becoming the first Tesla to win Europe’s Best Seller award, while being also the first time since 2010(!) that a Tesla reaches the podium...Disruption, anyone?

The two times winner (2016 & ’17) Renault Zoe won another Silver Medal last year, its 4th so far (2013, ’15, ’18 and ’19), it is the longest standing model in Europe’s podium, having always been there since 2013, with the French hatchback securing the #2 spot right in March, while the 3rd place went to the two times winner (2014 & ’15) Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that collected also its usual Best Selling SUV and PHEV titles (it has been with it ever since since it landed, back in 2013...), although the BMW 330e has beaten it in the last two months of the year...

Will we finally see some competition in the plugin hybrid field in 2020?

In December, there were a few last minute changes, the most important being the Audi e-Tron going up to #8, making it 7 BEVs in the Top 8...Revealing, isn’t it?

Below the front runners, the Mercedes E300e/de twins were up two places, to #14, while the new BMW 330e jumped 3 spots, to #17.

A mention to the #16 Kia Niro PHEV, that registered just 301 units, its worst performance in over 2 years, being the clearest example of the “only deliver units in 2020” order made by Kia Europe.

Outside the Top 20, December brought a number of brilliant results, like the #21 Volvo XC90 PHEV scoring 1,312 units, the Swedish best result in 4 years, the new BMW X5 PHEV scored 1,453 units, its second record performance in a row, while the Audi Q5 PHEV continued its steady rise, having registered 847 units last month.

But the Surprise of the Month were the 1,336 units of SAIC’s MG ZS EV, by far the best result of any Chinese plugin in Europe.

Looking at some sub-categories, the Renault Zoe kept its B-Segment trophy, same as the Nissan Leaf in the C-segment, despite dropping from #1 in 2018 to #4 now, the midsize car category went to the Tesla Model 3 (and it should stay with it in the foreseeable future), while in the Luxury category, the #8 Audi e-Tron succeeded to last year winner Tesla Model X (#9 last year) in the SUV category, while the BMW 530e won the Luxury car category, despite dropping from #8 in 2018 to the current #11, because last year winner, the Tesla Model S, fell 14 positions, from #6 last year, to #20 in 2019...

Finally, the MPV category was once again won by the BMW 225xe A. Tourer, while in the small crossover race, there was a leadership change, with the Mini Countryman PHEV losing the title to the Hyundai Kona EV.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (20%) won the Best Seller trophy, being not only its first win in Europe, but also its first podium appearance since 2010...

The three times winner (2016, ’17 & ’18) BMW this time had to conform with the runner-up spot, with 13% share, ahead of #3 Renault (8%, down 1%), with the French brand returning to the podium, despite suffering from a short lineup, with Hyundai (7%) ending in 4th.

Looking into 2020, the Tesla Model 3 should build on its current success, possibly reaching some 120,000 units, while below it, the Renault should start the year in a firm 2nd spot, possibly reaching some 80,000 units by the end of the year, and Volkswagen will try to ramp up production of its ID.3 as fast as it can, so it can collect this year’s Bronze medal, with around 60,000-70,000 units.

But the volume of growth will come not from the Best Sellers, but from several new players said to land this year, that individually shouldn’t go much over 40,000 units, but all counted together will make the bulk of the impressive growth that the European plugin market should witness this year.

This is particularly visible in the middle-to-lower end of the market (DS3 Crossback EV, Fiat 500e, Honda e, Kia Soul EV, Mini Cooper EV, Opel Corsa EV, Opel Mokka X EV, Peugeot 208 EV, Peugeot 2008 EV, Renault Twizy EV...), that should double or triple sales, based on new model launches, while on the Premium side of the market, it will be more a case of evolution than revolution, with models adding (a bit) more volume to what it already exists, like the Lexus UX300e, Mercedes EQC (if they manage to get out of their own Production Hell), Porsche Taycan, Polestar 2 and Volvo XC40 EV, although in the case of the Porsche, it will be interesting to know if it can be a serious candidate to the trophy of Best Selling Luxury Car.

Having said all this, i expect the European EV market to reach close to one million units in 2020, which would be a great prelude to the following year, 2021, as it would mean that by then, firm two-digit shares would be possible, and that would be the point where all hell would break loose EVs would become the new normal, and we could order the ICE coffin in Europe.   

Japan December 2019

Nissan Leaf wins in depressed market

Some 44.000 units were registered in the Japanese PEV market, down 17% regarding 2018, with the 2019 PEV share ending at 0.8% share, down 0.2% regarding 2018, and this year, the blame is not of a single model, but of all three big players, with the Top 3 models all down over 20% YoY.

Are Japanese just not into plugins? 

It sure seems so, as even the Nissan Leaf, that was reinforced with a 62 kWh version, allowing long range trips, saw its sales dip 23% YoY. 

At least the Nissan EV collected enough units to collect another Best Seller title, its 6th, after winning in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2018.

As the remaining big players, the Toyota Prius PHEV kept its runner-up spot and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV won again the Bronze medal. 

Below the Big Three domestic players, the only other maker with a significant share is BMW, with 10%.

But next year, the German maker will have Tesla as strong candidate to steal its Best Selling Foreigner status, as the California-based has already become the Best Selling Foreigner in Q4, thanks to the landing of the Tesla Model 3.

Looking at Fuel Cells, 673 units were registered, down 2% YoY, making 0,01% of the overall market. Worryingly, it was the third consecutive drop for FCEVs, from the 2016 peak, with 1.055 units, to the current 673 units.

Will the 2nd Generation Toyota Mirai change things?

In 2020, expect the market to resume the growth path, with the Honda e and Mazda MX-30 hopefully stirring things up, while the Toyota RAV4 PHEV should surely jump into the podium. 

The first full year of the Tesla Model 3 should also help the sales tally, although this market is usually very closed to foreign models.

China December 2019

BAIC EU-Series: 2019 Best Seller in China

The light at the end of the tunnel?   

After some terrible months (-42% on November), the Chinese plugin market seems to have bottomed out, falling just 22% YoY in December, to 149,000 units, with both powertrain technologies dropping, but with BEVs faring better (only -17% YoY) than PHEVs (-45%), as the market adjusts to a new, less subsidy-dependent, reality.

A significant consequence of the subsidy changes last summer is the fall from grace of PHEVs, because despite the drops in the second half of the year, BEVs still managed to end the year with a 13% growth rate, while plugin hybrids went down by 13%...

And the trend is becoming more visible every passing month, as in December BEVs represented 86% of registrations, against the 80% average of 2019, which tells a strong message to the players in the market: “Go BEV, or Go Home”.

Interestingly, the overall automotive market also seems to be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, after 2019 (-10% YoY!) witnessing the second year on a row of sales drops, something unprecedented in the last 30 years, in December the market only dropped 1% YoY, so we could see a return to growth in 2020, which could mean even better growth perspectives for the local plugin market.

In fact, in the midst of this adverse environment, December’s PEV share reached a pretty good 6.8% share (5.8% BEV), pulling the 2019 PEV market share to its final 5.5% (4.4% for BEVs alone), which is significantly above the 2018 result (4.2%), but on the other hand, it is still well below than the 6.3% peak of last June.

Maybe we’ll get there again in the second half of 2020?

While many models saw their sales dry up, and even full brands have gone the way of the dodo, like Hawtai, new models are taking over the void, while the most expensive end of the market continues to thrive, helping foreign OEMs to increase market share, and in this particular case, Tesla was the winner, with the California-based brand taking 4% of the Chinese plugin market.

But to be fair, while as an individual brand, Tesla was the winner, with almost 43,000 units, looking at Automotive Groups as a whole, the Volkswagen Group took the trophy, with some 47,000 units.

Was this particular race (Best Selling Foreigner) in China the opening salvo for a Apple/Microsoft-like global rivalry in the foreseable years? Discuss.

In December, Beijing Auto (BAIC) had a smashing month, with the EU-Series sedan scoring 21,963 units, a new monthly record for a single model in China, while the smaller EC-Series also registered a five-digit result, its first in 2019.

But the surprise of the month was the new FAW Bestune B30 EV sedan coming out of nowhere to 8,735 units in December. Fleet deal?

Here’s last month Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – BAIC EU-Series: The electric sedan took the usual December peak to score a record performance, with the 21,963 units of last month being a new monthly high for a single model in China. In fact, if we disregard the Tesla Model 3 performances in the USA, it was the best performance ever, by any EV, anywhere. What it is the secret to its success? An attractive design and specs (215 hp, 416 kms / 260 mi NEDC, US $32,500) help, but there must be more to it, than just specs...

#2 – BAIC EC-Series: Next to the record performance of its EU-Series sibling, the 11,409 units of BAIC’s small EV might seem puny, but it was enough for a #2 position, being also the first (and only) time in 2019 that the city EV managed to score a five-digit number. Will the EC-Series recover its mojo this year?

 

#3 – FAW Bestune B30 EV: FAW’s bread and butter electric sedan was something of a underdog, with its sales paling next to the category best sellers, as an example, it had sold 3,434 units in the whole year of 2018. Then, out of the blue, the electric sedan registered a record 8,735 units in December! No doubt due to fleet deal(s), because despite an ok design, its specs (33 kWh battery, 80 kW motor) are really weak next for the category. Expect this model to continue throughout 2020 because of fleet deals (Taxis, etc), but one thing is certain: FAW, one of the leading automotive makers in China, really needs a shot in the arm, when it comes to EVs.

#4 – GAC Aion S: The rise and rise of the Aion S continues, as the sleek sedan is improving its performance every passing month, having scored yet another record, with 8,460 units, reaching the 4th place last month, its 6th Top 5 spot in a row. And if we add the 1,178 units of the badge-engineered Toyota iA5 EV, that is nothing else than a Aion S with a Toyota badge, the GAC sedan would have registered 9,638 units, which would place it in 3rd. But back to the Aion S, beyond the stylish (and aerodynamic - 0.245cd) looks, this new model bears some impressive specs: a 59 kWh CATL NCM 811 battery, 510 km / 318 mi NEDC range and Level 2 driving aids, but the real killer is the price: Around 180,000 CNY / $26,000. Before subsidies.

#5 – Baojun E-Series: With the end of subsidies for most of the small city EVs, unable to reach the minimum 250 kms range, the Baojun E-Series won the lottery, with the Shanghai Auto and General Motors offspring watching its sales jump in the past few months, winning consecutive podium positions, even if last month was only 5th, having registered 8,352 units last month. The access to the current subsidy, added to its competitive price (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes it an appealing model for car-sharing companies, as well as other kinds of fleets. 

Buick Velite 6: Now imagine this, an electric Station Wagon, being sold in Europe...

 

2019 ranking

We’ll start by celebrating the first Best Seller trophy of the BAIC EU-Series, with a new yearly record (111,047 units) as the cherry on top, with the risky bet of Beijing Auto, by switching its focus from the small EC-Series, two times Best Seller (2017 and ’18), to the larger EU-Series sedan, has payed off, it’s like BAIC was already guessing what was ahead of them…

The runner-up spot went to the BYD Yuan EV, that at a given time seemed to be a strong contender for the leadership, but then it was hit full frontal by the subsidy changes, while the opposite happened to the 3^rd placed Baojun E-Series, since the new rules, sales went up through the roof, allowing it to jump from obscurity into the podium…Which in turn, was the first podium for a SAIC model since 2012, when the small Roewe E50 was #3, with 238 units…Yeah, that many.

There were plenty of last-minute position changes, with the Roewe Ei5 recovering some positions and ending the year in 7^th, a great improvement over the #15 spot of 2018. It seems Chinese buyers do like station wagons, after all…

But the Climbers of the Month were once again the GAC Aion S, jumping 6 positions, to #6, while the Tesla Model 3 joined the Top 10, ending 2019 in #8, with the Californian being the first foreign nameplate to end a year in the Top 10.

What’s impressive on these two models performance, is that if both ended the year with record performances, both have even bigger growth perspectives for 2020, with the Aion S growing fast (it has always grown month-on-month since it landed), while its badge-engineered Toyota twin, the iA5, is already in four-digits (1,178 units) in only its second month on the market, so adding both together, as basically they are the same model, we get 9,638 units in December, so…I guess over 100,000 units will be impossible for the Aion S in 2020, something that the Tesla Model 3 should also be able to reach, thanks to the start of local production in Shanghai (The first 30 Made-In-China units were delivered in December).

With the BAIC EU-Series already at 100,000 units/year and SAIC’s Baojun E-Series regularly at 8,000-something performances, we could see at least 4 models hit the 100k mark in 2020…Which would make the Top 5 race in 2020 quite interesting, wouldn’t it?.

The BAIC EC-Series had a deliveries peak (11,409 units, year best) last month, allowing it to jump 6 spots, to #13, while the MG eZS EV joined the ranking in the last month of the year, thanks to a record 4,714 units, allowing it to be #19 in 2019.

But another important metric for the Shanghai Auto electric crossover is the behavior in overseas markets, with the Sino-British EV scoring close to 2,000 units in export markets, last month, the best result ever for a China-made EV.

In fact, this electric crossover has several waiting lists to be fulfilled outside China, after all there are already 2,100 orders for it in India, even before it landed there, while in the UK, I heard the interesting story that days after the price being announced in the UK, a few months ago, MG representatives were already asking for more units to the HQ in China, as the 2019 allocation had already been fully booked…As it seems demand won’t be a problem for it, we have a question:

-           -   Will SAIC have enough production capability to satisfy demand? 

And:

-     -   Does the MG crossover have enough demand (and production) to reach 100,000 units globally, in 2020?

With a ruling presence in the City EV field with the Baojun E-Series, and the MG eZS EV succeding both in the domestic and export fronts, SAIC is becoming a fierce rival for both BYD and BAIC, and we could even see it overcome them during 2020.

(General Motors could profit from the rise of Shanghai Auto, considering the special relationship it has with it, but for that to happen, GM management would need to play its cards right, something that it has failed to do when comes to electric cars…)

Speaking of General Motors, among the several good results outside the Top 20, the Buick Velite 6, GM’s (stylish) twin to the Roewe Ei5, had a record month in December, with 1,005 units. Will the Buick electric station wagon finally start to sell in significant numbers this year?

Also outside the Top 20, a mention to the ramp-up of the VW e-Lavida, now at 3,872 units, while the Audi Q2L e-Tron registered 1,049 units in only its second month on the market. Volkswagen Group is rising…

A final reference to the 3,455 units of Dongfeng’s Venucia D60 EV, will this new electric sedan become the maker’s bread and butter EV? 

Looking at the sub-categories, the BYD Tang PHEV was this year Best Selling PHEV, succeeding its stablemate BYD Qin PHEV, the Baojun E-Series was the 2019 Best Selling City EV, replacing the BAIC EC-Series, while on the full size categories, the BMW 530Le repeated last year Best Selling Car trophy, while the Tesla Model X this time managed to outsell (9,400 vs 8,900 units) the 2018 Best Seller Nio ES8, recovering the title that had belong to it in previous years.

Despite this setback, Nio kept the Best Selling Startup title, thanks to the recent success of the midsize ES6 (2,537 units in December alone).   

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (19%) won its 6th trophy in a row, while below it, the #2 BAIC (14%, up 1%) and #3 SAIC (12%, up 1%) benefitted from strong performances in December to gain share.

Outside the podium, Geely (6%) ended far from the podium, and had to keep a close eye on GAC (5%), in order to keep the 4^th position until the end.

Interestingly, the podium performers have been repeating these exact same positions since 2017, but by the look of things, 2020 will be a much more balanced race in the manufacturers ranking, with the Top 3 makers closer today than in the past, and GAC and Tesla (and Volkswagen?) running as dark horses.

Global Top 5 - Mid game bet - December 2019

1. Tesla Model 3 - 301k

2. BAIC EU-Series - 111k

3. Nissan Leaf - 70k

4. BYD Yuan / S2 EV - 68k

5. SAIC Baojun E-Series - 60k

On the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (367k) is King, followed by BYD (221k) and BAIC (160k).

In the OEM race, the fastest growing were Tesla (up 122k units YoY, to 367k), VW Group (59k units, to 142k) and Hyundai-Kia (47k units, to 130k) 

Finally, the plugin total passanger car market in 2019 should be slightly above 2.2 millions.