 |
| "All hail the new leader!" - Says the EU-Series |
Subsidy cuts
shake the ranking
After
a slow May, with just 2% growth, June saw the Chinese plugin market return to
full charge, registering some 147,000 registrations, up 72% YoY (BEVs grew faster still, at +97%), and because the
mainstream market is falling (-8%), June’s PEV share reached a record 8.5%,
pulling the PEV market share to 6.3%, frankly above the 2018 result (4.2%), and
on target to reach my forecast of 8% for
2019.
At
this pace, some months of the second half of the year could reach 10% or more.
And that’s when things get (even more) interesting…
BUT.
Starting in June, 26, NEV subsidies were cut off completely for vehicles with less
than 250 kms electric range, while those with higher range saw their subsidies
halved, which made some smaller range models to peak in June, so from now on, certain
low end models should see their registrations dry up, and the question will be
if the market will see its growth being affected by it.
To
be continued…
Back
to the present days, China is without doubt the most fascinating and fast evolving
plugin market on Earth, with several seismic changes happening at the same
time, it’s not only the Tesla Model 3 making waves, it’s also foreign brands scaling
up plugin production to meet the 2019 quotas, it’s the local startups trying to
hit relevant volumes in order to survive, all while the local big players race
between each other to see who gets to launch more models and ramp up their production
faster.
This
month was filled with surprises, with BAIC, Changan and Tesla shining, allowing
the Californian brand (3% share) to come closer to the foreign leader, Volkswagen,
with 4% (-1%), both ahead of BMW (2%).
In June, the most
important surprises in the models ranking came in #2, with the sedan Changan
Eado EV scoring a record 7,340 units, while in #4 we have the Tesla Model 3,
with an estimated 6,500 units.
Here’s June
Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:
#1 – BAIC
EU-Series: The
electric sedan scored a record 17,916
units last month, reaching the #15 spot in the overall ranking, confirming to
be the brand’s right bet for the year, and while Beijing Auto has managed better
results in the past (20,648 units with the small EC-Series, in October ’18),
the EU-Series sedan is a larger (and pricier) proposal, meaning more revenue
and profit for the maker. The design and specs (215 hp, 416 kms / 260 mi NEDC,
US $32,500) allows it to remain a popular choice, but with appealing electric sedans
landing every month, BAIC will have to keep a close eye on the ever-expanding competition,
if it wants to keep leading the pack.
#2 – Changan
Eado EV: “Chan-who?!?!” – you’d be forgiven for not
knowing about this brand, as they have been performing under the radar in the
NEV market most of the time, but after Geely, they are the largest Chinese automotive
brand, so it was surprising they hadn’t been more active regarding EVs, but it
seems they have finally awaken to the current market disruption and performed
their best month ever in June, with the Eado EV sedan scoring a record 7,340
units. Playing in the heart of the Chinese plugin market (Model 3-sized sedan, $30,000-ish
price, 430 kms / 269 mi NEDC range), the Lexus-inspired model doesn’t
profit from a powerful motor (only 136 hp), compared to the 200-plus hp of the
BYD and BAIC models, but Changan hopes to profit from the strong name
recognition (the Eado is its best-selling model) to win a large customer base.
#3 – BYD
Yuan EV: The brand Baby Crossover seems to be stuck at
6,000-something monthly results, which would be something to praise in almost
any other automaker, but we are talking of BYD here…With the brand now prioritizing
BEVs, battery demand is increasing even faster than before, so higher priced
models (Tang, Song, Qin, etc) are getting ahead of the Yuan, hence the rather
disappointing 6,566 units of June. With unrivalled specs (58 kWh
battery, 410 kms/255 mi NEDC range, 163 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), this
is was the year strongest candidate for the Best Seller title, up until
now.
#4 – Tesla Model 3: The poster-child for electric
mobility has landed in China and despite some pretty respectable numbers, somehow
it has failed to live up to the expectations of some of the most enthusiastic Tesla
fans, that expected the sports sedan to take over the market, like it did
elsewhere. Still, the Tesla sedan is making its own disruptive path, with the estimated
6,500 units of June, representing the best score ever for a foreign model in
China, allowing it to reach the 4th spot in June. At this point, the Tesla
nameplate is far from the domination held in North America or Europe, but it
seems to be the only foreigner with the potential to run at the same pace of
the local Best Sellers. It’s like LeBron James, undisputed king in the Eastern
Conference, but when on the Western Conference…It’s a different ball game.
#5 – Chery
eQ: One of the
pioneering EV brands, Chery had won China’s Best Selling EV title three times
in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), and the automaker regained relevance with the small eQ
EV, having registered 4,965 units
last month, its best result in 2019, allowing it to collect another Top 5
position. But the increased competition (JAC iEV E-Series, BYD e1…), and the
end of the subsidies (it has less than 250 kms range), should create difficulties
in the nameplate career. Let’s wait for the next episodes, to see if it
confirms.
 |
| Xpeng G3: A smaller shade of Tesla.. |
2019 ranking
The market is
dynamic as ever, this time helped by the subsidy derived pull forward of
low range EVs, with plenty of stuff to talk about.
We’ll start with the
most important position change, with the BAIC EU-Series displacing the BYD Yuan
EV from the leadership, a first for the Beijing Auto sedan, ending at the same
time a 5 month spell of the BYD nameplate in the leadership, that in turn had
interrupted a 16 month lead of the BAIC EC-Series.
Speaking of BAIC’s
small EV, after a fall into the abyss in 2019, in June the hatchback returned
to a half decent performance, with 4,744 units, allowing it to return to the
Top 20, in #19, but the question now is: Was this a pull forward move, in order
to profit on the incentives, or is this a sustained surge?
The other new
face in the ranking is the #20 Dongfeng Fensheng E70 EV, another electric sedan
in this Top 20, that registered 3,525 units last month, a new monthly record
for a Dongfeng nameplate.
But the Climbers
of the Month were the Changan Eado EV, Tesla Model 3 and BYD Qin EV, with all these
models jumping 5 (five) positions in the ranking, the Eado EV went up to #11,
thanks to 7,340 units, a new high score for any Changan model, while the Tesla
Model 3 jumped to #13, just one position below the current Best Selling
foreigner, the VW Passat PHEV, while the BYD sedan is now #15, thanks to 3,016
units, a new personal best for the nameplate, allowing it to be just 414 units
behind its PHEV sibling, the Qin PHEV.
When the BEV version
of the Qin surpasses its PHEV relative (next month?), it will be a small, but
significant sign of the current BEV trend (full electrics had 84% of registrations
in June, against 80% YTD)
The SAIC Baojun
E-Series came back from the dead to score 4,556 units, its best result
since June, which is no surprise, considering this will be another model that
will lose any kind of subsidy, from this moment on.
The Xpeng G3 EV,
from the startup Xiaopeng, is now #17, thanks to 2,237 units, surpassing once
again the other local startups, Weltmeister (1,902 units) and Nio (1,340),
although this last one is keeping the best-selling full-size SUV title, with
its #23 ES8 SUV, all while its smaller (and cheaper) SUV sibling, the ES6, landed
this month (413 sales), so expect Nio to recover the Best Selling Startup
title soon, thanks to the ES6 production ramp up.
Talking about
production ramp ups, the much hyped GAC Aion S sedan went up to 2,016 units in
only its second month on the market, already surpassing its nemesis, the Geely
Geometry A, that scored 1,743 units in its 3rd month.
But the hottest
newcomer is the JAC iEVS4 EV, a compact crossover that had Volkswagen’s helping
hand in the development stage, which registered 3,156 units in only its 3rd
month on the market. Will we see it soon in the Top 20?
Looking at the
manufacturers ranking, BYD (22%) is leading comfortably, thanks to the success of
its lineup (there’s 3 BYD’s on the Top 4 spots, and 5 in the Top 15), while
below it, BAIC (10%, up 2%) has surpassed SAIC (8%, -1%) thus recovering the 2nd
spot, while Geely (6%) is looking to profit in the coming months from the current
model launch fever, so that it can finally race for a podium position.
