Norway November 2019 (w/ extra features)

VW e-Golf wins in slow month

Last month, plugin registrations were down (-15% YoY), but because the mainstream overall market was down even further (-19% YoY), last month plugin share was 60%, keeping the 2019 PEV share at 56%.

Regarding the November Top Sellers, this time the VW e-Golf was the winner, with 803 deliveries, with the German hatchback being seemingly immmune to the shadow of the ID.3.

The Audi e-Tron was down to 3rd, doing a 1-3 podium for the Volkswagen Group.

Finally, the Hyundai Ioniq Electric ended the month in #6, with 342 units, proving once again the formula: bigger battery = bigger sales.

Looking at the 2019 ranking, there weren't big changes in the top positions, and all seems pretty much decided until the 8th position, where the #8 Jaguar i-Pace and #9 Hyundai Ioniq Electric are separated by 41 units, in December the British SUV will need to step up the pace if it wants to keep the Hyundai model behind it.

The only changes in the Top 20 were the Volvo XC60 PHEV climbing to #10, while the Opel Ampera-e was up to #16.

Outside the Top 20, a mention to the plugin hybrid renaissance, with several models shining, like the revised VW Passat GTE, with 137 registrations, the new BMW 330e (185 units, second record month in a row!), the new X5 PHEV (223 units), and even the Porsche Cayenne PHEV is surfing the wave, having scored 92 registrations.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is uncontested leader (25%, down 1%), being followed by Volkswagen (14%), while BMW (10%) will have to defend its Bronze Medal from Hyundai and Nissan (both with 9%) in December.

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

November saw the return of plugin hybrids, with three models in the Top 10, with only one unplugged model present, the Toyota RAV 4 hybrid in #6.

The top 4 spots were 100% BEV, with all-electric models being to be the majority of models (6 out of 10).

One interesting exercise suggested by some readers was to breakdown the overall market by type of fuel, so this is what it looks like:

2019 (Jan-Nov)

ICE - 40,023 (31% of all passenger car registrations)
HEV/MHEV - 15,953
BEV/PHEV/FCEV - 75,151

2018

ICE - 58,741 (40%)
HEV/MHEV - 14,758
BEV/PHEV/FCEV - 74,430

2017

ICE - 76,230 (48%)
HEV/MHEV - 19,460
BEV/PHEV/FCEV - 62,960

Adding a small comment to these numbers, pure ICE is losing share at a 8-9% rate each year, so it is possible that by 2023, pure ICE registrations have gone extinct.

Germany November 2019

BMW i3, Renault Zoe and Tesla Model 3. Who will be Germany's Best Seller?

Some kind of click happened in the German plugin market after the Summer holidays, after two consecutive record months, November saw 10,985 units being registered, only the second five-digit performance, after the 11,926 units of October. It seems Europe's locomotive has finally been set in motion, which is a promising sign for 2020.

Despite a BEV slowdown (only +9% YoY), PHEVs (+216%!!!) were more than enough to propel forward this market, with plugins growing 72% YoY last month, while share wise, November saw the PEV share reach 3.7% (1.6% for BEV alone), allowing the 2019 share to climb to a record 2.9% (1.7% BEV).

November brought another demonstration of strength from the Daimler Group, placing once again three models in the Top 5, besides the E300e/de twins keeping the monthly leadership, with 1,263 deliveries, their smaller siblings, the C300e/de twins, ended in 4th, with 719 registrations.

But the Daimler Group didn't stopped there, with the tiny Smart Fortwo EV ending the month in 3rd, with 828 units, its best result since December '17.

The remaining two spots in the Top 5 went to the local heroes VW e-Golf (#2, with 925 units), and BMW i3 (#5, 546), with the Volkswagen veteran impressing by its vitality, even with its sucessor in bilboards everywhere (and starting to roll of the lines of Zwickaw into the hands of a few lucky VW employees. 81 ID.3's were registered in November…)

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Mercedes E300e/de	1,263
2	VW e-Golf	925
3	Smart Fortwo EV	828
4	Mercedes C300e/de	719
5	BMW i3	546

Regarding the YTD table, the Number One Spot continues pretty much open to discussion, with all top 3 models underperforming (the Dutch market black-hole effect is making itself felt…), the BMW i3 still managed to overcome the former leader Renault Zoe and become the new #1, while at the same time time, it has won a precious advantage (665 units right now) over the #3 Tesla Model 3.

With only 1 month to go, this is still a 3 horse race, and i guess the decision lies in the hands of...The Netherlands.

Depending on the priority given to the Dutch market in December by the three brands, the Best Seller can either stay in Germany, cross the border to France, or go halfway the world to Palo Alto...But if i had to bet on a winner, i would go for...BMW. 

While the Model 3 will probably end December ahead of the other two, in the 2019 count, the disadvantage regarding the leader (665 units) is significant, so it will take an extraordinary performance next month which, while not impossible, is becoming even more difficult by the black-hole effect of the neighboring Dutch market.

As for Renault and BMW, the distance is small (101 units) enough for a small allocation difference to make a big difference, and with the French maker still in volume ramp up of the revised Zoe, it wouldn't be surprising if the priority to the Dutch market would prevent it to have enough units to beat the local BMW i3.

One thing is certain, this is probably the most exciting race among the top markets, so don't forget to bring the popcorn...

Outside the podium, there's also a lot to talk about, the Mercedes E300e/de twins climbed to #6, and although the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is too far from the Mercedes model for the Luxury sedan to reclaim the Best Selling PHEV title, next year the Japanese SUV will surely lose out to the Mercedes.

But the PHEV resurgence didn't ended there, with another Mercedes double, the C300e/de, jumping three spots, to #16, while we see a new face in the table, with the new BMW 330e joining the ranking, in #20, making 4 BMW's in the Top 20.

Outside the Top 20 there are also significant performances: the new Audi Q5 PHEV registered 276 registrations, a new personal best, while its relative VW Passat GTE scored a record 350 units, and the Porsche Cayenne PHEV delivered 374 units, placing it just 8 units behind the #20 BMW 330e...Will we see the Porsche SUV ascend to the Top 20 in December? 

In the brands ranking, BMW (21%, down 1%) is the leader, with Tesla (10%, down 1%) keeping its advantage over the #3 Renault (9%, down 1%).

Outside the podium, the rising Mercedes (8%, up 1%) has surpassed Mitsubishi and Volkswagen, with the three-pointed-star now aiming to displace Renault from the last place of the podium in December, while the Smart brand (7%, up 1%) is looking to end the year in 4th.