Monday, October 14, 2019

USA September 2019

Resultado de imagem para model 3

US market dances to the tune of the Model 3

Some 33,000 plug-in units were registered last month in the USA, down 25% YoY, but the YTD tally is still in the black (+2% YoY), and because the overall market is stagnating (-1% in 2019), the 2019 PEV Share grew slightly to 1.9%

This growth is highly dependent on the Tesla Model 3, with the sports sedan being responsible for 47% of all deliveries, greatly influencing the general behavior of this Tesla-addicted PEV market.

Speaking of Tesla, it seems the Californian maker has already found its natural ground, share wise, having increased just slightly (+1%, to 57%) its market share, regarding our last US post, in June.

Of course, when the Model Y lands, the share should rise again, but until then, do not expect big changes.

On the other hand, the Model 3 addiction is patent when we remove that nameplate from the total numbers, doing so makes the market dive 12% YoY...

Even the other Teslas are seeing their numbers drop significantly, with the Model X down 17% YoY, while the Model S deliveries are dropping like a stone: -43%!

Blackhole effect indeed...

Looking elsewhere, there isn't much to talk about, with the BWM 530e reaching a Top 10 position, while the Toyota Prius PHEV recovered the runner-up spot, while a (slightly) recharged Nissan Leaf is now #6 and the Chevrolet Volt continues sliding from the ranking, as the sun sets in its horizon.

A special mention for the #4 Chevrolet Bolt, that in September has managed its best score (2,125 units) in 6 months, helping it to be the only nameplate, aside the leader Model 3, to improve its score (by 58%!) regarding the same period in 2018. Kudos for this little EV, (too) many times critisized.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, as previously mentioned, Tesla is now responsible for a mammoth 57% of the market, while Chevrolet (7%) hangs on to Second Place, trying to keep the Silver medal from the hands of the #3 Toyota (also 7%), ahead of Honda, Nissan and BMW, all with 4% share.

Tesla Model 3 & Others

2019 Sales  
Toyota Camry
Honda Accord  
Nissan Altima
Ford Fusion
Tesla Model 3

The Model 3 is now in cruise speed, with the Tesla midsizer keeping its #5 spot in the midsize class, while at the same time, the Californian has the Premium midsize category in the bag, as its closest competitor, the Mercedes C-Class, is way behind it, with 37,898 sales.

Interestingly, the Model 3 black hole effect is not being felt among the midsize best sellers, with the one with the largest drop being the Honda Accord, with a small 5% decrease, while the Ford Fusion even managed to increase sales by 7%.

It looks like the relatively high price of the Model 3 prevents it from making further inroads into the mainstream market.

Tesla Model S & Others

 BMW 5-Series 
  Mercedes E/CLS-Class  
Audi A6
Tesla Model S
Mercedes S-Class

Looking at the large premium car category, the Tesla Model S is suffering from the cannibalization effect of the Model 3, with deliveries down 43%, with the recovering 3# Audi A6 winning a sizeable distance, while the #5 Mercedes S-Class is closing in, thanks to sales only being down by 15%.

I guess Model S sales should only recover when and if the much debated interior refresh finally lands.

Regarding the Model X (13,540 deliveries in 2019),  sales drop isn't so Sharp (only -17%), but the more intense competition means that the Tesla nameplate is only 9th on the Large Premium SUV category, pretty far from the class leader, the BMW X5 (37,035 units).


  1. A crucial factor for the USA market is the phasing out of tax credits for Tesla (and GM). In other countries after a fall of 5,000 dollars in subsidies (like Tesla has faced), EV sales have fallen by a lot more. I speaks to the strength of Tesla that it is holding up so well.

    1. That's a very good point.

      The poor performance of the Leaf is particularly shocking, considering that the 62 kWh variant is fairly comparable with the Bolt, but it still gets full tax credit... I guess that has to be attributed to the fact that the Bolt -- being a compliance car -- is reportedly getting *heavy* discounts in ZEV markets (on the order of $10,000); while Nissan is way more stingy with discounts, actually trying to sell at a profit...

    2. That and the Leaf's lack of liquid thermal BMS.

    3. I don't think the majority of potential Leaf or Bolt buyers really cares about the cooling approach...


    19.100 model 3, 2k difference.


    19,100 model 3 or 2k difference

    1. I am making a lower estimate, considering the oficial Tesla numbers and the deliveries elsewhere.

  4. It's surely not a coincidence that the Bolt is seeing the highest sales in six months: GM faced their first step-down in tax credit after March, and the second one after September...

  5. I think the exterior design of the S needs updating too. Also w.r.t. Fusion, it's important to not that previously in the Ford lineup it was bookended by Focus and Taurus both of which ceased production. Ford car sales overall plummeted and the only reason the Fusion stayed up is movement from some people that were going to buy a Focus or Taurus sliding up or down a notch. Especially since Fusion goes all the way from nasty cheap rental car version up through Titanium/premium sedan.

  6. Tesla owns 57% of the market. Crazy.

    1. Yeah, monopoly situations aren't healthy.

      "Diversity breeds Creativity, creativity breeds Progress" - is one of my mottos, so…

      But then again, it's not Tesla's fault that most Legacy OEMs aren't interested in investing in the US EV market, right?

    2. Absolutely. Plus, it goes to show that Tesla has a huge market wide open for its advance in the future. No competition to speak of.

    3. Maybe Tesla will need to do what SpaceX is doing with Starship: pit two engineering teams against each other, creating internal competition, to make up for the lack of external competition ;-)

  7. I always wonder why I see BEV models that are available in Europe but not North America. Even stranger there are few models that are available here in Canada but not in the states.

    1. Which models are you thinking of? Not counting future models (ID.3), the only major one I can think of is the Zoe -- which is explained simply by Renault having no presence in the US at all...

      (Admittedly, there are a bunch of compliance models -- especially those from Hundai/Kia -- that are available in the US only in symbolic numbers, while the availability in Europe is *somewhat* better... Though not matching demand there either.)

  8. This market has gotten less and less attention in this blog and the numbers shown here aren't that accurate too.
    More accurate numbers are posted here:

    Audi e-tron 434 (YTD 3540)
    BMW i3 467 (YTD 3362 -31%)
    BMW i8 68 (YTD 932 +95%)
    Chevrolet Bolt 1462 (YTD 13112 +11%)
    Chevrolet Volt 265 (YTD 4541 -66%)
    Hyundai Nexo 23 (YTD 197)
    Jaguar I-Pace 160 (YTD 1842)
    Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 176 (YTD 1914 -30%)
    Nissan Leaf 1048 (YTD 9111 -15%)
    Tesla Model 3 20250 (YTD 113825 +45%)
    Tesla Model S 1100 (YTD 10675 -53%)
    Tesla Model X 1675 (YTD 14100 -25%)
    Toyota Mirai 62 (YTD 1249 +9%)

    Q32019 standings are:
    1st Tesla with 138600 vehicles
    2nd General Motors with 17653 vehicles
    3rd Toyota with 15705 vehicles
    4th Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 11025 vehicles
    5th Honda with 8583 vehicles

    1. There are many media outlets reporting on this market, so there's no need to highlight it here.

      Besides, it has become a boring market to report, it's like "Tesla, bla bla bla, Tesla, bla bla bla…"

      "Nothing new on the western front"

    2. Considering that no official numbers are available for many models in the US, it's anyone's best guess which of the various available estimates are actually more accurate than others...