Thursday, October 10, 2019

Norway September 20

Resultado de imagem para Model 3 norway

Model 3 Superstar - Norwegian Edition

Last month, BEVs registrations were up (+27% YoY) in September, while PHEVs continue their never ending slide, sinking 28% YoY last month, and even HEVs were also down (-9%), but hybrids weren't alone alone in the naughty corner, as regular diesel (12% share in September, 16% YTD) and petrol (10% last month, versus 16% a year ago) kept sliding, while BEVs (55% share in September) just keep on winning share (they had 45% a year ago).

Looking at the PEV share, September recorded 65% share, 9% above the 56% YTD result, and expect this value to continue growing until the end of the year.

Regarding the September Top Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 was the clear winner, with 2.342 deliveries, so it is with some antecipation that we will see how the demand of the midsize sports sedan becomes in the last quarter of the year, will we finally see the organic demand showing up, or will the Netherlands eat up most Model 3 units in Q4, starving the rest of Europe? If so, we should see a strong Q1 2020 for the Model 3 in Norway, something the Tesla nameplate could use, so that it can be better prepared for the landing of a certain VW ID.3...

Speaking of Volkswagen, despite all the talk about the new ID.3, the existing e-Golf continues to impress, reaching #2, with 645 units, surpassing the Nissan Leaf, that despite hitting 585 units, it had to settle with the last place of the podium. Is the Japanese model becoming irrelevant?

The Audi e-Tron scored another Top 5 performance, with 476 registrations, and with the all-electric SUV said to have a cheaper version coming soon, expect it to start collecting regular podium positions.

Looking at the 2019 ranking, the top positions seem stable, although the #5 Audi e-Tron could put the #4 position of the BMW i3 in danger towards the end of the year, same as the #8 Hyundai Kona EV. regarding the #7 Jaguar i-Pace.

The #11 Tesla Model X could also surprise and assure a Top 10 presence, but then again, it will all depend on how Renault makes the transition for the revised Zoe.

On the lower half of the ranking, the Volvo XC90 PHEV yacht SUV climbed one position, to #18, one of the good news for the PHEV side. 

Another plugin hybrid on the rise is the Mini Countryman PHEV, that rejoined the ranking, in #20, thanks to 96 registrations last month, that allowed it to surpass the starved Kia Niro EV, now making 7 PHEVs in the Top 20, 4 of them from Volvo.

Outside the Top 20, a mention to the Mercedes EQC, that is (very) slowly starting to ramp up deliveries, having registered 48 units in September.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is uncontested leader (28%, up 2%), being followed by Volkswagen (13%), while BMW (10%, up 1%), has managed to win the 3rd spot over Hyundai and Nissan (both with 9%), but the German carmaker still has plenty of obstacles to overcome, it if wants to keep the Bronze medal.

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

September was a strong month for plugins, and it shows, with only two unplugged models, both coming from the Toyota hybrid stable, with the RAV 4 hybrid in #5 and the Yaris in #10.

The top 4 spots were 100% BEV, with all-electric models continuing to be the majority of models (7 out of 10).

There was only one PHEV model here, with the Outlander PHEV reaching #9, a low position that says a lot about the current PHEV fall from grace...


  1. March was the last month with a BEV(9) and PHEV(1) only top 10, and also the first month that happened I think. I wonder when we'll next see that (which could possibly coincide with a BEV only top 10), early 2020?

    1. I am hoping for December, but the RAV4 is selling a lot, so it will be hard to displace from the Top 10.

      As for the Yaris and the Outlander, i guess it will be a question of time.

    2. I suspect the dominance of the Model 3 might actually make it hard for other models to show outstanding sales... So we might not see another EV top 10 until a whole bunch of new, more competitive models gets introduced -- which will be a while I fear...

  2. Maarten VinkhuyzenOctober 10, 2019

    Another great blog post, coming directly from Scandinavia?

    Looks like Volvo is becoming for PHEV what Toyota is for HEV, at least in Scandinavia. A dangerous position to be in.

    Volvo needs full BEV versions of all its models ASAP.

    1. Yep, from a rainy Sweden. :)

      Good point on Volvo, they really need BEV models soon, as the short range PHEV thing won't be enough to keep sales afloat, a year from now.

    2. FWIW, the XC40 BEV is scheduled to be unveiled next week... I don't expect it to come with specs that could make it a game-changer, not being based on a dedicated BEV platform -- but it should still do very well in most of Scandinavia I'd guess.

  3. I see not only Netherlands starving the rest of Europe with its Model 3 demand, we have UK too that could, in Q4, follow, or even amplify, the trend we had already seen in this Q3.

  4. Current PEV top sellers in Norway are having so far, opposite developments:
    the registration rate for Tesla Model 3 is decreasing (Q1: 6123 vehicles; Q2: 4437 vehicles; Q3: 3299 vehicles)
    the registration rate for VW e-Golf is almost stable (Q1: 2340 vehicles; Q2: 2488 vehicles; Q3: 2299 vehicles)

    From the posted data, Q32019 standings are:
    1st Tesla with 16689 vehicles
    2nd Volkswagen Group with 11537 vehicles
    3rd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 10118 vehicles
    4th BMW Group with 5840 vehicles
    5th Kia-Hyundai with 4596 vehicles

  5. strange, no kia niro....

    1. Deliveries have gone down, the units allocated to Norway were possibly sent to the Netherlands.