Monday, December 9, 2019

Netherlands November 2019


Resultado de imagem para tesla model 3 Netherlands

Tesla Model 3 dwarfs the competition

The Dutch PEV market is back at year-end-rush mode, doubling sales in November, to 7,205 registrations, translating into a PEV Share of 18% in November, and pulling the 2019 PEV share to a record 11% share.

With the incoming fiscal changes on January 1st reducing the benefits of EV ownership, the last months of 2019 are seeing another demand peak in this market, that interestingly enough, has been profited by the different OEMs in various degrees:

- Tesla has received thousands of orders in a short time, so it had do some allocation engineering, starving the remaining European markets (UK and Ireland being the exception), in order to satisfy the demand peak, hence the outlandish 3,973 units registered in November, with December possibly witnessing an out-of-this galaxy record (do i hear 6,000? More?);

- Hyundai and Kia continue battery constrained, but because they were already planning to starve most European markets in the last months of 2019, because of the upcoming EU CO2 rules, they had enough units to provide some extra deliveries in the Netherlands, allowing the Kona EV to be #2, with 535 units (best result since January), the Niro EV to end  the month in 3rd, with 425 registrations, a new record in this market, and even the Ioniq Electric ended the month in #5, thanks to 277 units, its best score in 22 months;

- Nissan also pulled a good result last month, with 418 units, a new year best, allowing it to end the month in #4, although i guess here the limitations aren't either in batteries or product allocation, but demand itself;

Looking at other EV model results, while some are also experiencing demand peaks, like the BMW i3 (262 units, new year best), the Opel Ampera-e (wait, what?!?), with the US-Korean-German model scoring a record 155 registrations, or even the Tesla Model S & X, that registered new year highs, others either can't (production constrained Renault Zoe, demand constrained Jaguar i-Pace) or won't (VW e-Golf, Audi e-Tron).

The Volkswagen Group model results are interesting, because while they are florishing elsewhere, they are not surfing the current wave in this market.

This seems to be part of a larger strategy by the German maker, as 2020 will be Year Zero of their Plan to Rule the (EV) World, so among the major European EV markets, they seem to focus on Germany, (soon-to-be) the largest EV market in Europe, and where the VW e-Golf still hasn't managed to win a Best Seller trophy, and in Norway, where the German brand was the Best Selling Plugin Maker for four year in a row, but was now overturned by Tesla, thus discarding France (Renault country), and the Netherlands (Tesla country), while leaving the UK for a later stage.

Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
3,973
2
Hyundai Kona EV
535
3
Kia Niro EV
425
4
Nissan Leaf
418
5
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
277

Looking at the 2019 ranking, the most important change was the Nissan Leaf climbing to 4th, relegating the VW e-Golf to #5, while the revised Hyundai Ioniq Electric was up to #8.

On the lower half of the Top 20, the Opel Ampera-e was up one spot, to #11, while the Jaguar i-Pace climbed to #15, and to finish a series of BEV climbs, both the Tesla Model S and the X jumped two positions, with the first jumping to #17, with the second ending the month in #18.

Outside the Top 20, a mention for the new BMW 330e, that registered 48 units, and with the German midsizer just 50 units behind the #20 Smart Forfour EV, the BMW model could still join the ranking in December.

A final reference to Shanghai Auto's MG eZS crossover, with 48 registrations last month, the British accented, but Chinese born model, is shaping up to become the first Chinese EV to sell in significant volumes in Europe.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (43%, up 3%) is the clear leader, followed by Hyundai (14%), while the other Korean, Kia (8%, down 1%), is in the last place of the podium, ahead of BMW (7%), Nissan and Volkswagen (both with 6% share).




Overall Ranking

Pl
Model
2019
Reg.  
1
Tesla Model 3
17,858
2
VW Polo
12,565
3
Ford Focus
9,954
4
Kia Niro
8,564
5
VW Golf
8,472

You might have read plenty of articles about how the Tesla Model 3 is kicking ass butts in The Netherlands, but to what extent is that showing in the overall market? 

Well, it's not only by far the Best Selling Plugin in the country, but also in the overall market, where the Tesla midsizer has a 5,000 units lead over the #2 VW Polo.

Interestingly, in the Top 5 there are two more electrified models, with the Kia Niro (37% BEV, 1% PHEV and 62% HEV) in #4, and the VW Golf (30% BEV) in #5. Not bad, eh?


Midsize Car Best Sellers

Pl
Model
Nov.
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
3,979
2
BMW 3-Series
570
3
Volvo S/V60
326
4
Mercedes C-Class
255
5
Audi A4
162

The Tesla Model 3 is the undisputed leader in the midsize car segment, with the electrified BMW 3-Series (35% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) in Second, but far, far, FAR, behind. 

The Volvo twins S/V60 are in 3rd, with 326 units, but have a low degree of electrification, with just 13% of sales belonging to their PHEV versions.

Finally, we have the unplugged Mercedes C-Class and Audi A4 outside the podium,  and while Mercedes doesn't seemed interested in launching their PHEV versions here, that could soon change if the upcoming PHEV midsizers (VW Passat GTE, Skoda Superb PHEV, Peugeot 508 PHEV...) start to gain traction. I wouln't be surprised if sometime in the first half of next year, all of the Top 5 became electrified.


Midsize SUV Best Sellers

Pl
Model
Nov.
Sales  
1
Mercedes GLC
270
2
Volvo XC60
151
3
Mitsubishi Outlander
136
4
BMW X3
112
5
Jaguar i-Pace
88

This SUV category is also being quickly electrified, although the unplugged Mercedes GLC sits at the top (for how long?), the electrified Volvo XC60 (33% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) is 2nd, with 151 units, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was 3rd last month, with 136 units (86% of all Outlander registrations), and the fully electric Jaguar i-Pace shows up in #5.

With the #4 BMW X3 said to be having a PHEV version soon, we could see a fully electrified Top 5 sometime next year. Not bad, eh?


Full size Car Best Sellers


Pl
Model
Nov.
Sales  
1
BMW 5-Series
209
2
Mercedes E-Class
128
3
Tesla Model S
69
4
Audi A6
63
5
Volvo S/V90 
58

If the midsize SUV is getting electrified fast, even without the Tesla Model Y and VW ID.4x, in the full size car category, things are less advanced, while only the Audi A6 remains unplugged, only the fully electric Tesla Model S has a large degree of electrification, while the #1 BMW 5-Series (22% of registrations belong to the PHEV version) and the #5 Volvo S/V90 twins (16%) have a moderate degree of electrification, although still well above the Mercedes E-Class, that only has a 2% electrification rate.

The Porsche Taycan  will be a welcome addition to this category...


Full size SUV Best Sellers

Pl
Model
Nov.
Sales  
1
Audi e-Tron
168
2
Tesla Model X
68
3
Porsche Cayenne
58
4
Volvo XC90
52
5
BMW X5
40

The full size SUV category seems to be the most advanced segment when it comes to electrification, not only we have 2 BEV nameplates in the top two positions and a fully electrified Top 5, but the #4 Volvo XC90 already has 75% of its registrations coming from its PHEV version, and while the Porsche Cayenne only has 2% of electrification rate, expect it to grow significantly in the coming months.

Add this to the fact that the #5 BMW X5 (18% of registrations are PHEVs) is ramping up production of its interesting PHEV version, and the electrification rate should only go higher!

And don't forget the incoming Mercedes GLE PHEV, with 100 kms electric range and fast charging is also coming soon!

These are surely welcome news in one of the most polluting vehicle segments.

13 comments:

  1. Will all top 5 entrants in the mid-size car category being premium models, I doubt the Passat etc. will break into this list... The Polestar 2 should be the next EV candidate having a shot at entering this list in 2020; followed by BMW i4 some time in 2021.

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  2. Are you sure the ID CROZZ (Id.4x?) should be counted in the mid-size category? My understanding is that it won't be much larger than the Id.3 (just taller), and thus rather qualify as compact?...

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  3. It should be noted that the expensive BEV models (Model S, Model X, I-Pace) are seeing less of a boom this year, since they were heavily affected by the previous subsidy change, and thus most of the pull-forward already happened last year... So while all three are well up compared to the earlier part of the present year, it's still not even close to what they saw last year.

    This doesn't apply to the e-tron though, since it wasn't available last year -- so it's rather surprising that it isn't getting a larger boost this time around. I guess most buyers interested in large BEVs simply opted for Tesla or Jaguar instead, when Audi couldn't deliver last year...

    (Either that, or VW/Audi somehow missed the memo that unlike in the rest of Europe, delaying deliveries in the Netherlands won't gain them any points for the 2020 emission regulations game...)

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  4. Replies
    1. Tesla 3-8500,EV-4000,Zoe-?,PHEV-600=about 14000.market share 30-35%.if that happeens the numbers are impressive

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  5. In the Overall Ranking should the Niro and Golf be in black as they're electrified?

    Thanks for another update, I was looking forward to the Netherlands - 18% PEV share, wow!

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  6. Meaningless bubble sale. Next year, everyone will buy petrol cars again.

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    Replies
    1. In a year everyone will climb into the caves again,without any meaning.

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    2. Uh, no: despite the upcoming step-down, EV incentives will still be very large -- while at the same time EVs are getting even more competitive on their own. There won't be many people who wanted to buy an EV this year, but go back to combustion cars next year.

      (Of course there will be a collapse in EV sales at the beginning of next year, because of the demand pull-forward -- but it will recover, and go for another peak towards the end of next year, before the next step-down...)

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    3. I think, even in to much progressive way, people are more and more moving for an electrified solution (PHEV or BEV), so like I'am noticing more and more among friends and hearing other people saying that instead of buying a new petrol/diesel car, they will wait having the budget for an plug-in car or wait for more compelling ones adapted to their budget.
      Osborne effect it is, Yoda would have said!

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    4. Yeah, that's something I have seen brought up in a number of places. Some believe (and I tend to agree) that combustion car sales will collapse even faster than EV production can be ramped up, before the middle of the next decade. Which means legacy auto is in even deeper shit than they could ever imagine...

      Some people also think that it's already having a noticeable effect right now, being partially responsible for the current worldwide slump in auto sales... Though I haven't seen any research to confirm this suspicion.

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    5. I agree that in many countries the sales drop has to do with plugins and not some other economic factor, which leaves car makers that are behind the EV curve in deep trouble.

      Besides the PSA-FCA merger, let's wait and see what else will happen.

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    6. I'm more and more convinced that *all* legacy makers are in deep trouble -- even those who seem to be taking EVs seriously now, like VW. While their EV programs will give them a way forward longer term, these won't be enough to make up for the upcoming sudden collapse of combustion car sales... I'd be surprised if any of them makes it through without bankruptcy, or at least near bankruptcy.

      (And that doesn't even account for the other upcoming big disruption, from autonomy...)

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