Sunday, October 29, 2017

Europe September 2017




Tesla does 1-3 in (near) record month


The European passenger plug-in market returned from the holiday season with fully charged batteries, growing almost a third (+32%) regarding the same period last year, by registering some 33.700 units, just a whisker below the all-time record of December 2015 (33.827) which, let’s not forget, was inflated by fiscal changes that happened in the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark in January ‘16.

This growth is even more significant against the backdrop of a stagnating (-2%) automotive market in Europe, making plug-ins the fastest growing segment in the Old Continent.

Looking at PEV share, September hit a record 2.2% share, pulling the year-to-date share further up, now at 1.8%.

In September, Tesla did its usual last-month-of-quarter peak performance, but this time the tide was higher than usual, with the Model S registering its best result in 18 months, stealing for the first time this year the Best Seller award from the Renault Zoe, and at the same time, the Model X scored a record result, all while the VW e-Golf performed its third personal best in just four months.

Interestingly, the two Best Selling ICE models in Europe (VW Golf and Renault Clio) have their plug-in counterparts (e-Golf and Zoe) reaching the Top 5. Expect this to become a trend, once more and more mainstream buyers, more risk-averse, join the EV market.


Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:


Image result for white tesla model s
#1 Tesla Model S – It had been 30 months since the last time the Californian wore the Best Seller scepter in Europe, but September brought boatloads of S’s to Europe and in consequence, deliveries were up 50% in September, to 2.527 units, thus winning #1 status. It appears the Model 3 reveal not only didn’t hurt sales, but actually helped it, as many buyers preferred not to wait and buy now the older model, instead of waiting for ages for the Model 3 to cross The Pond. Looking at individual countries, Norway’s contribution is undisputed (1007 deliveries, best result in over two years), but the Netherlands (310 deliveries, best result in 18 months) and Germany (226) were also heavy contributors, in a generally positive month throughout the Continent for the Sports Sedan. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to return to more regular levels, that is, unless Norway does put forward the “Tesla Tax”...

Image result for white Renault Zoe
#2 Renault Zoe – The French hatchback had a rather disappointing September month, growing only 23% YoY, to 2.306 units, and losing for the first time this year the Best Seller of the Month trophy. Deliveries were expected to be higher, especially considering there is a three to four month waiting list to be filled, so there is room for Renault to increase production. As for market individual performances, besides the usual good result at home (1267 units, up 56%), there were also high numbers in countries like Germany (278 units), and Sweden (113 deliveries, new record).    


Image result for white tesla model x
#3 Tesla Model X – The Ugly Duckling of the Tesla stable had an opportunity to shine in September, growing 42% YoY to 2.137 units and ending the month in the podium. With record sales in important markets like Norway (996 deliveries) and Netherlands (244), the SUV-Minivan-that-thinks-is-a-sports-car is profiting from incoming improvements (eg, second and third row seats are now foldable…) and might start to leave the long shadow of the Model S older brother.   


Image result for white Outlander PHEV
#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – The Japanese SUV sales were down 11% YoY, to 2.080 registrations, but despite this setback, the Mitsubishi model continues to profit from its unique mix of space, AWD, range (50 kms NEDC) and affordability (40.000€), that makes him popular in markets like in the UK, Norway, Sweden, Iceland or Germany. In the long run, it is not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers.


Image result for white VW e-Golf 2018
#5 Volkswagen e-Golf – The range increase of the German hatchback coincided with a massive spike in demand, with record breaking performances almost every month, pulling registrations up to 2.041 deliveries last month. With a four months-long waiting list, Volkswagen has enough breathing room to continue improving its results, and we might even see it win the Best Seller trophy soon. Will it be in October? Looking at its largest markets, Norway is still the backbone of demand, with 949 units being delivered there, but with Germany (494, new record), Netherlands (121 units, new personal best) and Austria (111 registrations, guess what? Also new record), with other markets, helping along, the e-Golf is set to become a more spread out vehicle and not just a “Norway thing”. With 2016 sales (6.678 units) already surpassed and the record (11.170 sales, in 2015) not that far off, 2017 will surely be the best year ever for the all-electric Golf. Oh, the wonders of increased range…


Image result for 2018 BMW i3 


YTD Ranking – BMW i3 recovers Second Place, Teslas and e-Golf shine


A lot to talk about in the YTD ranking, if the Renault Zoe remains stable in the lead, the remaining positions had plenty of changes, starting with the BMW i3 (2025 units, best month since March) recovering the Silver medal from the Nissan Leaf, now entering on the “sunset phase”.

With the Outlander PHEV less than a thousand units behind, we might even see Mitsubishi’s SUV drop the Leaf to Fourth before December.

Other models on the rise are the Tesla Model S & X, with the first climbing to #5 and the second to #8, while the VW e-Golf joined the Top 10 at #9 and could reach as high as the Sixth position by year end, maybe even a podium place next year.

In the second half of the Top 20, we see the Golf GTE and Volvo XC90 PHEV hitting year best performances, and a hot seller is bubbling up, with the #29 BMW 530e (679 registrations) climbing one position and looking to climb a few more in the future.

Outside the ranking, the Streetscooter Work delivery van deserves a special mention, having registered 852 units in September, thus becoming the Best Selling model in its category that month.

Is the DHL-owned company starting to be disruptive in the delivery van class?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW (20%) is seated at the Iron Throne, followed by Renault (13%, down 1%) in Second Place, while a recovery-mode Volkswagen (13%, up 1%) is now firm in Third Place, less than 2000 units behind the French manufacturer.

Will we see VW reaching Silver next month?


Pl.
Europe
September
YTD
%
1
Renault Zoe
2306
23938
11
2
BMW i3
2025
14825
7
3
Nissan Leaf
1387
14809
7
4
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
2080
13963
7
5
Tesla Model S
2526
10580
5
6
VW Passat GTE
1264
9520
4
7
Mercedes GLC350e
1191
9260
4
8
Tesla Model X
2136
8774
4
9
VW e-Golf
2041
7915
4
10
BMW 330e
1289
7862
4
11
BMW 225xe Act. Tourer
1196
7804
4
12
Audi A3 e-Tron
856
6495
3
13
Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV
930
5735
3
14
VW Golf GTE
976
5568
3
15
Mercedes C350e
782
5231
2
16
BMW X5 40e
547
4476
2
17
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
552
4352
2
18
Kia Soul EV
502
3829
2
19
BMW 530e
679
3508
2
20
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
379
3279
2

Others
8072
42424
18

TOTAL
33716
214147
100




20 comments:

  1. Hi Jose,
    only a question: no data for France anymore? Because there is the home of the Zoe. Thanks for your great work, Reiner

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry for nor posting it, next month i will make an article on France.

      Delete
    2. france 29829 sales since beginning 2017
      18763 ev tourism + 4082 ev business + 6984 plug in
      http://www.avere-france.org/Site/Article/?article_id=7091&from_espace_adherent=0

      Delete
  2. Hi Jose, Thanks for your great work with this blog. One quick question: Is the Toyota Prius Plug-in just not selling at all in Europe or is it not widely available yet? Was expecting to see it pop in the numbers by now!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Prius PHEV, is selling across the Continent, Europeans are just not much into it.

      Add the fact that Toyota is having problems satisfying demand in Japan and the USA, so for the moment, promoting it in Europe is not a priority for the brand.

      Currently the Prius PHEV is #31, with 1713 units registered in 2017.

      Delete
  3. Hi there!

    What's the source of these data, please?

    Many thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The source is a compilation of all EV Sales data regarding Europe.

      Delete
  4. Hi there,

    what's the source of these data, please?

    Many thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  5. José, over 8.000 in the Other categorie is a bit much.
    Could you extent the list to a top 30 or all models with over 100 sales in the reported month?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will do a Top 30 in December.

      Delete
    2. I hope you have or will get an assistant to help you so that our demands (or rather eagerness in getting even more information =) won't break you. It's not like the information flow and EV markets will ever get smaller.

      Take care and keep up the great work!

      Delete
  6. What countries of Europe are taken into account here?
    Including EFTA? (Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Iceland)
    Including Turkey?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Jose, can you list us the countries that are taken into account for these numbers?
    Including EFTA? (Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Switzerland)
    Including Turkey?

    Thanks,
    Jochen

    ReplyDelete
  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Jose
    You mentioned you were involved with the EAFO project. Is this still active as it doesn't seem to have been updated recently?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Mark,

      Currently the project is on hold, waiting for EU funding, but i'm expecting it to restart in January, the latest.

      Delete
  10. Hi Jose,

    Very intriguing numbers, currently writing my thesis on this topic in the automotive industry. Any chance i could get in touch with you?

    Regards,
    Stephan

    ReplyDelete