BEVs up, everything else, down.
Last month, BEVs registrations were up 25% YoY, despite the overall market being down (-20%), with every other fuel source dropping, which lead to a significant BEV (40%) share, a big departure from the 25% of April '18.
In this context, the current 58% PEV share in 2019 should grow to over 65% PEV share this year, with peak months possibly reaching 75%.
The fuels mix is showing BEVs as the standard choice (40%), while every other fuel is falling significantly, like petrol dropping to 20% share (26% a year ago), or diesel being down to 18%. Even PHEVs are down significantly, to half of what they had last year, with their share in April being just 10%.
So, this is what disruption looks like…
Looking at last month Top Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 was in chill mode last month, delivering just 720 units, allowing the VW e-Golf to be April's Best Seller, with 911 registrations, the nameplate best result in the last 6 months.
Outside the podium, the Audi e-Tron stayed in the 5th spot, with 371 deliveries, just ahead of the Jaguar i-Pace (350 units).
Looking at the 2019 ranking, after the seismic changes in the previous month, things were much more quiet this time, with the most important position change happening just in the 7th position, with the Jaguar i-Pace surpassing the Hyundai Ioniq Electric.
Elsewhere, Volvo had a great month, with 3 out of the 4 models climbing in the ranking, with the XC60 PHEV up one spot, to #11, thanks to 248 registrations, a new year best, while the XC90 PHEV and the new V60 PHEV also climbed in the ranking, to #16 and #17, respectively.
Finally, the #19 VW e-Up! (105 units, new year best) was up one position, to #18, surpassing the off-peak Tesla Model S, while in #20 we have a new (old) face, with the passenger version of the Nissan van e-NV200 showing up, this being a rare accasion to see this nameplate in the Top 20.
Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is uncontested leader (27%, down 3%), being followed by the previous leaders Volkswagen (12%, up 1%) and BMW (11%), while Hyundai and Nissan, both with 9%, are trying to reach the podium.
If the 2019 title seems already attributed, in 2020 i guess only Volkswagen will have a shot at displacing Tesla from the lead, and that assuming the ID hatchback production ramp up goes smoothly.
Hard times for Tesla's competition.
Models breakdown by Fuel Source
With the PEV share at 50%, the plug-in market is merging with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have 8 BEVs in the Top 10 and 1 PHEV (this time the honour goes to the Volvo XC60 PHEV), in the Top 10, with 1 HEV (Toyota RAV4 Hybrid, 247 units) preventing this to be another 100% plugin ranking, but the hybrid in question was relegated to a secondary place, as it was only #9.
I guess the writing is on the wall: Having hybrids (or even plugin hybrids) doesn't cut it anymore, now it is "Go BEV, or go home"
The PHEV is an important part of the transition, but the end state will be nearly 100% BEV.
ReplyDeleteAs an aside, I remember horses used for taxies and by door to door salesmen in my youth. A real 100% will take a lot longer than >99%.
My habit of looking at the pure BEV numbers is looking at how far we are on the road to the new normal ( >99% BEV ).
Your reports on the PEV numbers gives an insight on status of the road we are on.
And as always, Jose, thanks for the numbers and insights.
True, in order to avoid indefinite 95% BEV shares, we will need ICE bans.
DeleteSales bans are needed to send a signal, and thus accelerate the transition in general. I don't believe they are needed to get rid of the last couple per cent of sales. Once combustion cars on the road are in a clear minority, they will not only be more expensive, but also increasingly more painful to refuel and service. And while some people might cling to their old combustion cars against increasing inconvenience, I'm pretty sure sales of new ones will go virtually to zero pretty fast. It simply won't be economic to keep selling them for the few people reluctant to make the switch...
DeleteI for one, do not agree bans are the right thing to do in order to solve problems. Politicians do very few (while talking takes them to exhausting, though) and not rarely, waste plenty of time on things that aren't their business. But while we are on the ban thing, we guess the Trump administration made the good decision imposing a ban on the Huawei stuff, that surely will cut carbon emissions, will accelerate the energy transition and will curb the temperature rise on the planet. On the same note, I guess EU should ban easyjet from flying and any lowcost operator that also makes a living from selling on-board just-heated sandwiches and prize scratchcards. That will improve lives on this planet.
DeleteWhile I don't exactly agree that it's none of their business, I totally agree that the EU legislators are way too much inclined to introduce complicated ban regimes with even more complicated exceptions, instead of just introducing steep pricing on emissions and other pollution, and let the markets sort out the details...
DeleteNow, that would be a great idea! A Norway-like emission tax system would be just what the EU needed.
DeleteJose,
ReplyDeleteHow many units of the Opel Ampera-e have been sold in Norway in the first 4 months of 2019?
Cheers
Up until now 271 Opel Ampera-e are sold in 2019 in Norway, of which 20 this month.
DeleteIn total there are 2401 Ampera-e sold in Norway.
Jose,
DeleteThe Nissan e-NV200 Evalia has 263 deliveries in Norway and is at nr 20.
According to Maarten Vinkhuyzen, the Opel Ampera-e has 271 deliveries in Norway in the first 4 months of 2019.
Shouldn't the Opel Ampera-e be in the top 20 (instead of the Nissan e-NV200 Evalia)?
Cheers
I don't know where Maarten got that number, according to what i have, the Ampera-e has 243 units.
DeleteI use https://elbilstatistikk.no/?sort=3 that is updated in real time. The 271 number was for May 16th.
DeleteThe Nissan e-NV200 Evalia is clearly above that. José's numbers are as always correct.
The true stunning change is however the month over month change from April. Tesla sales down over-80% ( Model 3 from 5300 to 720), wheras VW eGolf sales jumped from 894 to 911 and VW eUp sales up 100%!! Model X and Model S steeply plunged as well and are now far behind competition from Jaguar iPace and Audi etron. The trend continues in May and VW is now the undisputed leader in Norway, whereas Model S sales are sinking into oblivision of just a few car sales per month.
ReplyDeleteYes, VW eGolf "jumped" from 894 to 911 => that's +1,9%! WOW!
DeleteThe trend continues in May and VW is now the "undisputed leader" in Norway: Yes, with 440 cars in May (until now) versus Tesla with 460 cars. Fantastic! Congrats to the leader! ???
I'm confident that I've already pointed out to you that comparing consecutive months isn't a productive way to view Tesla's sales, YoY would make more sense (as it does for most auto co's).
DeleteTesla currently have a quarterly delivery wave which peaks at the end of each quarter, so it's entirely predictable and not at all 'stunning' that April and May sales are much lower than March, it might make sense to compare May to February if you must.
How does Tesla having 27% of 2019 PEV sales and VW with 12% translate into VW as the undisputed leader in Norway? Tesla's sales will ramp up again toward the end of May and then peak in June, before predictably crashing in July and August provided Tesla continue with their quarterly delivery waves.
I'm not even a rabid Tesla fan, and I'm looking forward to VW storming in with the ID.3 in the latter half of 2020 (a car I will likely be buying, fingers crossed).
Because of the way the Tesla logistics are organized, you can't interpret the Tesla numbers on a monthly basis, especially not month on month.
DeleteFor serious analysis always use quarterly numbers only.
Tesla month on month numbers are only used SeekingAlpha FUDsters to create wrong rumors about Tesla.
Heinrich,
DeleteTo be "the undisputed leader in Norway" VW must have a Plug-In model that is in pole position in Norway.
Put on those glasses and look again.
You will see that the Tesla Model 3 is in pole position in Norway.
Bye bye
Heinrich, always looking at Tesla's half empty glass, eh?
DeleteWhile the way you write is amusing, I guess we should pay more attention to what the numbers really show instead of what people want numbers to convey. Tesla issues and inability to produce & deliver in time, orderly, aren't consumer problems: they are Tesla problems. In 4 months of 2019 in Norway, Volkswagen has been able to produce, distribute and deliver an average of 813 e-Golfs per month, while on the other hand, Tesla hasn't. Tesla registered into Norway 17 Model 3 in january, 791 in february, 5315 in march and 720 in April.
DeleteThis isn't a healthy and rightfull way of doing business and this is a full Tesla fault, since Tesla takes 100% charge of producing and retailing their vehicles. Tesla being the lowest-ranked for quality of service in Norway doesn't surprise and this is one of the reasons why.
Yes Anonymous, we should pay attention to the numbers. For example why there are 3 deliveries in January when Tesla did not start deliveries until the end of February.
DeleteAnd Tesla is a world wide operating company, just looking at the numbers for tiny Norway is not the smartest thing to do. And you have to include the financial reporting numbers in your deliberations too. They dictate the structuring of Tesla's production and logistics planning.
And now we are at it. Remember the dates. The dates are important for the financial markets.
Too many numbers for you? I should publish as anonymous to if a wrote BS like you just did. (yes, that is an ad hominem)
Comparing to a single model, produced nearby, over the span of four months, is just cherry-picking. The various monthly sales charts clearly show that other makers also often experience huge fluctuations from one month to another. (Just not following such a predictable pattern.)
DeleteMore importantly, it's not a matter of ability, but of willingness. Tesla mentioned a couple of times in the past that they will smooth out production/deliveries over the quarter in the future; but thus far they always postponed that plan... Right now however it looks like they are serious this time around, meaning things should be way more even going forward, beginning around May/June. Of course there will still be fluctuations from one week to another, as ships arrive; and depending on how it falls on month boundaries, it might still result in somewhat large fluctuations between months (though not following a regular quarterly pattern like in the past) -- just like with any other car maker shipping overseas...
I don't need to come here identified with a name in order to write and state facts:
DeleteTesla isn't a startup, and appropriate business practices doesn't take time to implement, require special intellectual ability or economic power.
Tesla has long ago abandoned the flying doctor club of Bugatti or Koenigsegg level since the closure of production of the original Roadster. With the Model S and even the Model X, they could still refer they were in the Ferrari, Aston Martin or Rolls-Royce club, since you would`t find any of those with a showroom and capable workshop for it in every single town or city in the world. But, Tesla is aiming very high with the Model 3 now, not with it in itself but with still producing, delivering, retailing and servicing the Model S, the Model X and on top of all that, the Model 3 too.
It clearly works, more or less acceptable, with the first two, but with all of them together and at the same time, no it doesn't, not even in the US. No healthy business can be achieved with current and past practices going on at Tesla. That is the main topic I am alluding in my past reply.
Do you really feel it costs the same, or it is way cheaper to dump 5000 or 10000 Model 3 in 2-4 weeks than it would if only 400 or 800? You really have no inside knowledge of Automotive Production and Vehicle Logistics if thats happen to be the case. Tesla is a massive cash-burning machine because of high inefficiencies! And to point all this I do not need to stick any name, but I can provide you with one now: Looney Tunes
What defines Tesla is their growth rate, not their current size. No company would be able to execute smoothly in this situation. While it undeniably results in inefficiencies, Tesla does and should keep behaving like a startup, because keeping up the growth is more important presently than executing perfectly. With the whole industry facing two giant disruptions over the coming years, the agility resulting from operating like a startup puts Tesla in a much better position than well-executing but sluggish traditional car makers.
DeleteThis might be different a decade or so from now, when the major disruptions have mostly played out, and the car market enters a more predictable trajectory again. At that point, Tesla will be an incumbent, and likely will have to behave like one in order to remain successful. But until then, their current approach is totally the right one for them.
Dear Anonymous / Looney Tunes / "Heinrich"?: While i agree with some of your points, i think we are all cheering for EVs and their success, and currently Tesla is the guiding light of the EV movement, so cherry picking numbers to discredit Tesla is indirectly discrediting EV in general.
DeleteSo, i ask you, and all the readers in general, to try to be fair on your comments.
This is also valid to the Tesla fans, because sometimes certain comments/actions "defending" the brand, do more harm than good, as i explained here: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/05/on-how-some-tesla-fans-do-more-harm.html
@José in the article you linked, you were complaining about Tesla fanatics attacking other EVs. While I have seen this happen way too often, and totally agree that it's a problem, it doesn't actually seem relevant to the specific situation we are seeing here?...
DeleteIt's just a reminder that we should keep the comments focused on the topic.
DeleteMeantime, gasoline sales in Norway are falling every year. The same applies to diesel, but at a slower pace (presumably because of trucks). Gas stations are closing in many countries, even without a fall in sales, so I presume this will be much faster in Norway. It will become gradually less convenient to own an ICE car in Norway.
ReplyDeleteYou can find the relevant statistics at the following link:
https://www.ssb.no/en/petroleumsalg
interesting perspective, thanks!
DeleteOr more graphic at http://ev-numbers.no/salg_drivstoff.html
DeleteWith ID.3 deliveries delayed to the middle of next year -- and their production goals not being particularly ambitious to begin with -- I doubt they have a shot at dethroning Model 3 next year. Maybe in 2021?...
ReplyDeleteYes, the battery supply part of the EV equation is a bitch.
DeleteAll the best for VW getting the batteries for the ID family!
German media reports suggest the ID.3 delays are actually caused by software issues... Which incidentally has also been given as the official reason for the e-tron delays.
DeleteThis increasingly lends credit to those analysts who say that Tesla's real advantage is in software... For MEB, VW is supposedly introducing a more integrated electronics architecture, akin to what Tesla does, especially in the Model 3 -- but apparently VW just doesn't have the software development competence to get this approach right...