Monday, July 29, 2019

Europe June 2019

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Tesla high tide


The European passenger plug-in market registered some 47,000 registrations in June (+24%), with the PEV market growing 34% in 2019, a great performance considering the stagnating performance (-3%) of the overall market.



In June, while PHEVs had a horrible month (-38% YoY, worst drop since 2014), all-electrics had some 34,000 deliveries (+98%), having been responsible for 73% of all plugin sales last month (66% YTD), with the BEV share at 2.3%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share climbs to 3.2%, placing the 2019 PEV share at 3.0% (2.0% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result of 2018.



Looking at other fuels, diesel sales continue its never-ending dive (-21% YoY), with its share dropping to 31%.



The big news in June was the expected Tesla high tide, with the Model 3 scoring another 5-digit performance, while both the Model S & X had their best results in 2019.



Interestingly, despite the landing of the Tesla Model 3, all the remaining Top 5 Best Sellers had 25%-plus growth rates, meaning the Model 3 isn’t drying sales from other EVs, but helping them to thrive.







Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:


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#1 Tesla Model 3 – After the March deliveries peak, the posterchild for electromobility had its 2nd deliveries peak in Europe, with 11,604 deliveries, with the sports sedan still benefitting from the reservations backlog, with some markets already getting the SR+ versions, while in other countries, like Norway, demand is high enough to be still delivering the AWD versions, so expect another backlog-driven peak in September, so we should only know the organic demand of the Model 3 in Europe on Q4 2019, if not already in 2020. But back at June, looking at individual markets, the midsize model was mainly delivered in Norway (3,012 units, best-selling vehicle in the overall market), Netherlands (2,487, new record and best-selling vehicle in the overall market), Germany (1,336), and France (1,097).


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#2 Renault Zoe – The 4,881 deliveries of June signaled a new year best and a 43% growth rate for the French hatchback, an impressive performance, considering the much improved “new” Zoe and the upcoming Peugeot 208 EV (and Opel Corsa EV, etc), are just a few months away. As for market individual performances, the Zoe continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,845 units), and in Germany (1,020 units), with the surprise being once again Italy (350 units), with Renault being the main benefitter of the new local incentives.


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#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – The stainless steel Japanese SUV seems unfazed by the passing of time and the arrival of new models, being the only PHEV able to follow the pace of the Best Selling BEVs, with the Mitsubishi model scoring 3,580 registrations in June (up 67%!), continuing to be popular in the UK (650 units), but the new #1 market for the Outlander is now Germany, with 915 registrations, with Norway (540) being the third big market. The success of this PHEV in the BEV-friendly environment is remarkable, but in the long run, one wonders how long the Outlander PHEV will resist to the BEV wave (possible answer: until 2021, when the Tesla Model Y and VW ID Crozz finally land), although, with no direct BEV competitor landing soon, the Mitsubishi model could still pick up a lot of sales this year without major worries.


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#4 BMW i3 – The German hot hatch sales were up 26% in June, to 2,520 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales, following the EV bubble growth. Looking at individual countries, Germany (714 units), Norway (453) and the UK (350) were the main markets. Looking into 2019, expect the Star Wars-inspired EV to continue growing, being a regular face in this Top 5.


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#5 Volkswagen e-Golf – Volkswagen’s electric Golf managed to reach the 5th spot in June, with 2,246 units, up 55% YoY, an amazing performance, considering the Wolfsburg Mother Ship has entered in full-ID-mode, advertising the new BEV family like if it didn’t had already one successful model in the market. But the e-Golf is here and still selling strong, profiting from the strong name recognition, with the German EV main markets in June being Norway (798 deliveries), Germany (635), and the UK (300).





Resultado de imagem para jaguar i-pace czech republic
i-Pace: an expensive beauty


  

Looking at the 2019 ranking, if the podium positions continue stable, the main news was the BMW i3 surpassing the Nissan Leaf and reaching the 4th spot, with the Japanese hatchback dropping two spots in two months.



The Nissan hatchback really needs a shot of the 62 kWh version to recover, although one questions if the new version isn’t too little, too late.



The Jaguar i-Pace was up to 10th, becoming the 7th BEV in the Top 10, and with the #9 Volvo XC60 PHEV just 176 units ahead, it shouldn’t take long for the British Sports SUV to climb another position and become the Best Selling midsize premium SUV, a title that should remain with the Jag until the landing of the Tesla Model Y.



On the second half of the table, there were several changes, the Audi e-Tron continues to climb positions, with the German SUV up two positions, to #12, while the Kia Niro PHEV climbed to #14 and the Smart Fortwo EV reached the #16 spot.



There was a new entry in the Top 20, with the Tesla Model S resurfacing at #18 (12th BEV in the Top 20), thanks to 1,670 units, and although Tesla’s flagship deliveries were down 21% YoY, it was its best performance in 2019, so it seems the veteran sports sedan has regained enough demand to sustain a Top 20 position this year.


The same can be said about the Tesla Model X, that jumped to #21, just 65 units below the #20 Volvo XC90 PHEV, thanks to 1,118 deliveries, a new year best, but comparing with the same month of 2018, deliveries were down 39%, a steep fall, and while the reason for the Model S drop is home grown (the Model 3 is diverting sales from it), the drop of the Model X has to be found elsewhere, as the Osborne-effect of the Model Y alone does not explain this large drop, so yes, Tesla demand can be diverted into other EVs, if they exist, of course.  



Below the Top 20, we should notice the good performance of the new Mercedes E300e/de twins, with 795 registrations last month, a near-record performance for the plugin E-Class, placing the nameplate just 300 units from the Top 20.



In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (17%, up 2%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (13%, down 1%) remains in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (10%), in the 3rd spot, with Hyundai and Mitsubishi not far behind, with 8%.



31 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. low hundreds. The Mercedes SUV is still ramping up.

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  2. Maarten VinkhuyzenJuly 29, 2019

    With nearly 50% of Model 3 sales in just two small markets, Norway and Netherlands, we can say the Model 3 sales has not really begon in most of Europe.

    In Q3 we will see the initial wave from the UK and slight increases in most other European markets.

    I propose a new "Rule of Thump". As long as Model 3 quarterly sales don't reach 50% of one of the Big Three (Audi A4, BMW 3-series, MB c-class), the Tesla has not really arrived yet.

    That means Tesla marketing and Tesla retail have a job to do in those countries. Like opening service centers with a showroom attached, get media attention (reviews & testdrives bij car journalists), pop-up stores, visiting markets/fairs and shows, etc.

    On another note; ~250k sales in the first half year and a few new / updates waiting in the second half (and hopefully better battery) the half million should be easily passed this year. Perhaps even >550k?

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    1. Yes, Tesla still has a lot to do in Eastern Europe.

      As for forecasting the H2 2019, i think we will see an increase in sales, that should be significant, but not disruptive (we will have to wait for 2020 for that), so i think 550k sales should be reached, maybe between 550-600k.

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    2. AnonymousJuly 30, 2019

      You simple need more gouverments that buy the BEV for you without massive incentives no reason to own an BEV. And another problem its still visible that you get better BEV for less in 2 years

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  3. Maarten VinkhuyzenJuly 29, 2019

    Looking at the non-Tesla BEV sales, except for Zoe, i3, and e-Golf, there is a lot of room for improvements.

    I doubt the theory that carmakers are holding back to create a more favorable baseline for the new emission regulations. I think the main culprits are lack of batteries, and dealer awareness.

    Perhaps I should try to collect some ratios BEV / ICE sales of comparable models within a brand per market.
    Like Zoe/Clio or eGolf/Golf per country. This would show where the dealers get it, and where they are oblivious.

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  4. This month would be a good month to renew the list of the 5 EV models with the highest aggregate historical sales, given that we have official numbers from Tesla. The Leaf is definitely first, Model 3 should be second by now, but what models hold the remaining 3 positions?

    It would be a good idea for a post, before you start reporting July numbers.

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    Replies
    1. I will go on a one week holiday in August, so expect something like that during next month.

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    2. Is the Leaf definitely first? The Wikipedia page on EU PEVs ranks the Zoe higher but that's aggregate up to 2017, the BMW i3 and Tesla Model S have fairly high sales as well, so for BEVs only I'm not sure the M3 would make it into the top 5 (yet).

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    3. The Leaf is definitely still the first in worldwide aggregate sales, around 422,000.

      Model 3 vs. Model S is actually an interesting question. Model 3 is at some 282,000 through June, while the Model S should also be somewhere around 280,000 -- so quite possibly the Model 3 just edged out the Model S in June? If not June, then in July definitely.

      The Zoe is very popular in Europe, but doesn't exist elsewhere -- so it's not even close globally. Similar for i3, which sells fairly little outside Europe.

      In fourth place globally is probably still the BAIC EC-series?...

      (See http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/11/global-all-time-top-5-until-oct-18.html for the previous tally.)

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    4. (Just to be clear, I'm pretty sure Alexander was asking about global sales, even if this post was about Europe... While I don't know the numbers for Europe, the Model 3 definitely isn't anywhere near the top sellers here yet, and likely won't be for another year or so...)

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    5. @antrik - I think you're right, I just re-read their question and it does looks like they're asking about global sales, but I'd originally read it in the context of this month's update and assumed it was about total aggregate sales in Europe, oops!

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    6. Correction: Model 3 should actually be 273,000 through June, not 282,000 -- so Model S was definitely still ahead.

      (Though Model 3 most likely surpassed it by now, or will do so in the next couple of days at the latest...)

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  5. AnonymousJuly 29, 2019

    From the posted data, Q22019 standings are:

    1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 59618 units
    2nd Tesla with 42105 units
    3rd BMW Group with 36686 units
    4th Kia-Hyundai with 28285 units
    5th Volkswagen Group with 19218 units

    Analysing the progressions made since the first quarter, there's an outstanding dive on Nissan Leaf deliveries but also reduced delivery rates on Tesla Model 3, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and BMW i3 cars. On the other hand, there was an increase on Renault Zoe, Volkswagen e-Golf, Jaguar I-Pace, Audi e-tron and even an extraordinary jump growth on Tesla Model S deliveries, since that in just one month (June), Tesla booked 1670 deliveries, a delivery amount superior to the one achieved in the first full quarter of the year.
    Further notes, both Renault Zoe and Nissan Leaf no longer have chances this year to reach 60.000 deliveries while the Tesla Model 3 might struggle to deliver 80.000. It remains to be seen if like the Jaguar I-Pace, Audi e-tron and Hyundai Kona BEV, the Kia Niro EV has chances to hold a position in the Europe top10 sales PEV chart by the end of this year.

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    1. Model 3 deliveries in Q2 are actually almost unchanged from Q1. And I think there is a very good chance that it will surpass 80,000 for the full year, with additional markets being opened for real, SR+ deliveries starting for real, and also some reports of order rates picking up recently... Not to mention general seasonality.

      I also think the Zoe might still have a shot at 60,000, if the new variant is well received. H2 is always stronger in general; and the upcoming incentive changes in the Netherlands alone could add a couple thousands...

      Niro has very little chances of entering the top 10, considering low production for Europe thus far, and reports of further shortages. Kona might hold its position, if production/imports remain strong (demand should not be an issue); and e-tron should have a very good chance of entering the top 10. Not sure about the I-Pace hanging on, though...

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    2. When comparing monthly Model S vs. Model X deliveries year-over-year, it's important to keep in mind that the Model X had somewhat of a deliveries burst this May in some important markets, while the Model S has seen much more deliveries in June. I'm sure that's a matter of logistics, rather than actual fluctuations in demand... Did the Model X also see a steeper drop than Model S YoY when looking at the entire quarter?

      BTW, I do think cannibalisation from Model Y might actually play some role, considering that Tesla opened real pre-orders this time, not just reservations... Though no doubt other new entrants also have some effect, with Model X no longer being the *only* option for a large long-range BEV.

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    3. The e-tron surely also falls into the "midsize premium SUV" category? Which means the I-Pace actually has very little chance of taking the best seller title... While the e-tron started late, it's been at a noticeably higher pace for several months now. Which is totally expected really: although the Jaguar has slightly better specs, the Audi is not only a more popular brand, but is also much more roomy -- making it a way more practical vehicle...

      This is also reflected in production capacities: with Audi supposedly aiming for 50,000 per year (though I think they might have trouble selling this many...), while most rumours regarding Jaguar only talked about 20,000. (And so far it looks like 20,000 could be just about as many as they might be able to sell this year...)

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    4. Given their size, i consider the Audi e-Tron to be an E-segment SUV (Model X class), while the i-Pace is D-Segment (Model Y class).

      Of course, the i-Pace is overpriced for its segment, and the e-Tron is not space eficient, given the size, add the fact that there's not a lot of competitors in the market, and the reality is that models that would not normally overlap (i-Pace, e-Tron, Model X...), are indeed playing in the same field.

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    5. I didn't realise that there is actually no strict definition for these segments... From what I have read before, my understanding was that both the e-tron and the I-Pace classified as mid-size / D-segment cars, despite the e-tron being 22 cm longer (and only 13 cm shorter than Model X...), and having much more interior space...

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  6. @ Anonymous

    More than 100,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries in Europe in 2019 is a possible outcome.

    The second half of the year is always substantially better than the first half.

    Cheers

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    Replies
    1. Yes, first deliveries of SR+ happened only at the very end of June, UK and Ireland still have to get their cars (possibly Eastern Europe too), and the fact January saw no deliveries... are all factors pointing to substantially higher Model 3 sales in the second half.

      It still seems difficult to reach 100k, 62.220 are needed vs 37.780 so far. But not impossible :)

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  7. Hi José, if I add Europe's June 2019 YTD results I get 279759 not 248620. Any idea?

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  8. When comparing PHEV sales year-over-year, keep in mind that this time last year, most European markets were seeing PHEV sales inflated by demand pull-forward, because of upcoming incentive changes. (Both WLTP-related and other...)

    Comparing to the more "regular" sales from two years ago, numbers seem pretty flat... Which might still be disappointing I guess, though not terribly surprising -- considering that many PHEV models still haven't been re-introduced post-WLTP, and also some important markets have seen incentive cuts even for the PHEV models still (or again) available...

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  9. In Europe PEV sales:
    2019 - 3,5%
    2020 - 5%
    2021 - 8%
    2022 - 13%
    2023 - 20%
    2024 - 30%
    2025 - 45%
    2026 - 65%
    Till 2030 it is very possible that the transition will be completed.

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    Replies
    1. I agree with your exercise, but i can tell you that these kind of growth rates scare the hell out of the industry people. :)

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  10. For Spanish sales www.movilidadelectrica.com

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  11. It seems that TSLA’s delivery is always crowded in the quarter end month, Mar, Jun etc. , double or triple the prior month’s numbers.

    Is there a good reason for this weird trend?

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    1. There is a reason: they produce for overseas markets at the beginning of each quarter, and for domestic later in the quarter. With overseas deliveries taking longer, that results in both domestic and overseas deliveries crowding towards the end of each quarter.

      This helps getting inventory low -- and cash reserves high -- when reporting quarterly results. That's the reason. It's arguable whether it's a *good* reason...

      (They have talked about changing this at various points in time -- but never followed through thus far.)

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  12. I think the transition will happen quicker, in 2020 just 5% with a long list of new models coming seems a bit low to me. I'd say at least 7%.+

    Considering just BEVs:
    - Audi e-Tron GT
    - BMW iX3
    - Citroen C4
    - DR 3
    - DS 3 Crossback
    - Fiat 500
    - Jaguar XJ
    - Mercedes EQC
    - Mini electric
    - Opel Corsa
    - Opel Mokka X
    - Peugeot 208
    - Peugeot 2008
    - Polestar 2
    - Porsche Taycan
    - Seat Mii
    - Seat el-Born
    - Skoda Citigo
    - Skoda Vision IV
    - Toyota C-HR
    - Volkswagen uP!
    - Volkswagen ID.3
    - Volvo XC40

    If I forgot something (only those certain for 2020) tell me please!

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    Replies
    1. That's an impressive list indeed... Keep in mind though that many of these models will only be introduced in late 2020, thus not making a significant contribution to the 2020 count. Some will also be available only in China (at least initially), which is already a crowded market, so a few new models are not likely to change much.

      Of those listed, the only ones I think will actually be somewhat significant in 2020 are:

      - Corsa / Peugeot 208
      - ID.3, and *maybe* some of its derivatives (though most will only come very late in the year I think?)
      - Fiat 500 (assuming it's affordable)
      - EQC
      - Taycan
      - perhaps Mini E -- though considering the specs are rather behind the times, I'm not too hopeful about that one
      - maybe the new UP!/Mii/Citigo (they were very niche in the past -- but with new specs/price, I guess that might change somewhat?)

      One you forgot is the Honda E, which seems to have a well-designed platform (along with good looks), and thus could see pretty significant sales, if it comes with an attractive price.

      Also, Model Y! While we can't count on it, I think it possible that it might already have a somewhat significant contribution in 2020.

      Of course there will be lots more new models in China that you haven't listed -- though it's hard to tell which ones will be relevant. (The ones we know about are mostly from startups trying to drum up excitement -- while the real volume models are coming from established makers, and we rarely hear about those in advance...)

      All in all, while 2020 should be good, I don't expect a real break-out before 2021 or 2022, when most legacy OEMs will begin introducing entire families of new BEVs on properly designed dedicated platforms...

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