Record month
Despite the Covid-related lockdown in the second half of the month, the German plugin market score signaled another record performance in March, its third in a row(!), having registered 19,145 units, and with the overall market dropping 38% YoY, last month plugin share reached a record 8.9% (4.8% BEV), pulling the yearly tally to an amazing 7.3% (3.7% BEV), and to think in the end of 2019, i was forecasting 6% share for 2020...
March had a (not so) surprising leader, with the Tesla Model 3 winning its first Monthly Best Seller title since last September, thanks to 2,034 deliveries, its best performance in a year, while Volkswagen continues milking its e-Golf hatchback to the last drop, thanks to generous discounts, the German EV was #2, with 1,524 units, its third(!) record performance in a row, so it seems the veteran model is set to end its career on a high note.
March had a (not so) surprising leader, with the Tesla Model 3 winning its first Monthly Best Seller title since last September, thanks to 2,034 deliveries, its best performance in a year, while Volkswagen continues milking its e-Golf hatchback to the last drop, thanks to generous discounts, the German EV was #2, with 1,524 units, its third(!) record performance in a row, so it seems the veteran model is set to end its career on a high note.
But the Volkswagen didn't stopped there, with the Passat GTE ending the month in 4th, with 872 units, its best score ever.
Another surprise was the Audi e-Tron showing up in #5, thanks to a record 721 units.
So, 3 models out of 5 for the Volkswagen Group, with three record performances to boot. And the #6 (Audi A3 PHEV) and #7 (VW e-Up!) spots went also to VAG models.
How do you say "Counter-Strike" in German?
Pl
|
Model
|
Sales
|
1
|
Tesla Model 3
|
2,034
|
2
|
VW e-Golf
|
1,524
|
3
|
Renault Zoe
|
945
|
4
|
VW Passat GTE
|
872
|
5
|
Audi e-Tron
|
721
|
Regarding the 2020 table, the two front runners switched positions, with the VW e-Golf rising to #1, while the Tesla Model 3 jumped from #12 to 3rd, but it is still over a thousand units behind the top two, so it will be hard for it to recover ground, although being Tesla, you never know...
With the evergreen VW e-Golf seeing its career being extended almost until the end of the year, and the expected general slowdown in the coming months, the 2020 race should be a four horse race, with the VW e-Golf hoping to keep demand/momentum until the end of the year, the Renault Zoe betting in consistent performances to win the title "Ã la Alain Prost", the "Ayrton Senna" Tesla Model 3 hopes to pull some surprising performances to stun the competition, while a certain "young Schumacher" VW ID.3 expects to overcomemechanical software problems and recover enough positions to win the 2020 title in the last stages of the championship year.
Well, the production ramp up of the ID.3 is indeed happening, as the much antecipated hatchback crossed north of the monthly 100 registrations in March.
For now, the Volkswagen Group doesn't need it to grow, as the remaining lineup is running strong, besides the aforementioned three record performances (VW e-Golf, VW Passat GTE and Audi e-Tron), the Audi A3 PHEV did a Rudi Völler and found a second youth in the last stages of its career, despite the wrinkles and grey hair, the premium hatchback scored a record result last month, with 687 units, six years after it landed.
If the Volkswagen Group can do all this with a bunch of oldtimers (e-Golf, A3 PHEV, e-Up!), imagine what they will do with new, competitive models!
But the Volkswagen Group didn't have the exclusive of good performances in his Top 20, with the Smart Fortwo EV returning to the table, in #16, thanks to 501 registrations, a new year best.
With the evergreen VW e-Golf seeing its career being extended almost until the end of the year, and the expected general slowdown in the coming months, the 2020 race should be a four horse race, with the VW e-Golf hoping to keep demand/momentum until the end of the year, the Renault Zoe betting in consistent performances to win the title "Ã la Alain Prost", the "Ayrton Senna" Tesla Model 3 hopes to pull some surprising performances to stun the competition, while a certain "young Schumacher" VW ID.3 expects to overcome
Well, the production ramp up of the ID.3 is indeed happening, as the much antecipated hatchback crossed north of the monthly 100 registrations in March.
For now, the Volkswagen Group doesn't need it to grow, as the remaining lineup is running strong, besides the aforementioned three record performances (VW e-Golf, VW Passat GTE and Audi e-Tron), the Audi A3 PHEV did a Rudi Völler and found a second youth in the last stages of its career, despite the wrinkles and grey hair, the premium hatchback scored a record result last month, with 687 units, six years after it landed.
If the Volkswagen Group can do all this with a bunch of oldtimers (e-Golf, A3 PHEV, e-Up!), imagine what they will do with new, competitive models!
But the Volkswagen Group didn't have the exclusive of good performances in his Top 20, with the Smart Fortwo EV returning to the table, in #16, thanks to 501 registrations, a new year best.
Outside the Top 20, there's plenty to talk about, like the BMW X3 PHEV (256 units) and X1 PHEV (102) ramping up production, the new Opel Corsa registering 622 units, a strong first sales month for the Opel hatchback, so we should see it here soon, while Volvo continues to increase its electrification efforts, with its S/60 PHEV twins scoring 407 units, their second record performance in a row, and the XC40 compact SUV also scoring a best ever 184 units result.
The Mercedes A250e is another model to be seen soon on the Top 20, with the compact model registering 421 units last month, while the Mini Cooper EV registered 326 units in March, confirming its popularity across Europe.
Midsize Car Best Sellers
Pl
|
Model
|
2020
Sales |
1
|
VW Passat
|
16,244
|
2
|
BMW 3-Series
|
13,155
|
3
|
Audi A4
|
11,785
|
4
|
Mercedes C-Class
|
10,331
|
5
... 8 |
Skoda Superb
... Tesla Model 3 |
4,233
... 2,901 |
Looking at the 2020 sales, we have four models with a significant degree of electrification, with the leader VW Passat having 14% of its sales coming from the GTE version, while the #4 Mercedes C-Class has 16% of sales coming from its PHEV versions, and the #2 BMW 3-Series, 10% share.
But the champion of electrification is the #5 Skoda Superb, with 24% share.
Which leaves the Audi A4 as the only unplugged model.
Which leaves the Audi A4 as the only unplugged model.
Midsize SUV Best Sellers
Pl
|
Model
|
2020
Sales |
1
|
Mercedes GLC
|
9,161
|
2
|
BMW X3
|
5,446
|
3
|
Audi Q5
|
4,885
|
4
|
Volvo XC60
|
3,834
|
5
|
Mitsubishi Outlander
|
3,105
|
We have a fully electrified Top 5, although these models have various degrees of electrification, from the 3% PHEV share of the Mercedes GLC, to the 73% of the Mitsubishi Outlander, passing by the 8% of the BMW X3, 14% of the Volvo XC60 and the 25% of the Audi Q5.
Anyway, 5 electrified models out of 5 is already something, and with the Mercedes GLC PHEV and BMW X3 in ramp up mode, things will look even better in a few months.
Full Size Car Best Sellers
Pl
|
Model
|
2020
Sales |
1
|
Mercedes E-Class
|
8,605
|
2
|
Audi A6
|
7,896
|
3
|
BMW 5-Series
|
7,381
|
4
|
Volvo S/V90
|
950
|
5
|
BMW 7-Series
|
783
|
With the exception of the #2 Audi A6, that still has its PHEV in demonstration mode, all other models have volume deliveries of their PHEV versions, with the #1 Mercedes E-Class hitting a significant 22% share, while the #3 BMW 5-Series reached 12%, and the #4 Volvo S/V90 twins had 20%.
With the Audi A6 PHEV said to ramp up production in the coming months, expect this Top 5 to be fully electrified soon.
Finally, the flagship BMW 7-Series had 24% of its sales coming from its PHEV version, while the Porsche Taycan is some 200 units below it, so we should see Porsche's sports sedan here sometime in the future, as the maker ramps up production.
With the Audi A6 PHEV said to ramp up production in the coming months, expect this Top 5 to be fully electrified soon.
Finally, the flagship BMW 7-Series had 24% of its sales coming from its PHEV version, while the Porsche Taycan is some 200 units below it, so we should see Porsche's sports sedan here sometime in the future, as the maker ramps up production.
Full Size SUV Best Sellers
Pl
|
Model
|
2020
Sales |
1
|
Mercedes GLE
|
3,462
|
2
|
BMW X5
|
2,811
|
3
|
VW Touareg
|
2,310
|
4
|
Audi e-Tron
|
1,884
|
5
|
Audi Q7
|
1,860
|
Unlike other categories, the full size SUV isn't on the forefront of electrification, with two models still very much ICE only, as the leader Mercedes GLE had just 1% of its sales coming from the PHEV version (for some reason Mercedes Germany is not betting in the 350de version), while the #3 VW Touareg (1% PHEV sales) just now presented officially its plugin hybrid version.
The #5 Audi Q7 has also a low PHEV share, with just 8%, while the BMW X5 PHEV is way better, representing 19% of the X5 sales, adding to the full EV #4 Audi e-Tron, as the brightspots of the category.
With the new VW Touareg PHEV and (hopefully) the Mercedes GLE350de ramping up production, it should be a matter of time until this Top 5 becomes fully electrified.
The #5 Audi Q7 has also a low PHEV share, with just 8%, while the BMW X5 PHEV is way better, representing 19% of the X5 sales, adding to the full EV #4 Audi e-Tron, as the brightspots of the category.
With the new VW Touareg PHEV and (hopefully) the Mercedes GLE350de ramping up production, it should be a matter of time until this Top 5 becomes fully electrified.
Another market were the long-time leaders of the electrification have been falling, including the BMW Group that finished 2019 as the market leader. A striking contrast to just a few months back but a telling sign of PEV becoming mainstream.
ReplyDeleteFrom the posted data, Q12020 standings are:
1st Volkswagen Group with 14582 vehicles
2nd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 6366 vehicles
3rd BMW Group with 4609 vehicles
4th Daimler with 4447 vehicles
5th Tesla with 2901 vehicles
Interesting to note that the e-up / Citigo / Mii brotherhood would be #3, if combined - before the Tesla M3
ReplyDeleteIt looks impressive, but there is so much more to come in Q3, Q4, if hopefully the worst of Corona passed. The total PEV marketshare should be well above 10% for the full year
Note that if you start adding up badge-engineered models, like the e-UP! and its clones, there is actually a whole lot of other models that would have to get the same treatment -- notably including other VW models (e.g. Passat/Superb), and much of the PSA lineup. (208/Corsa etc.)
DeleteWhen the situation normalises, the absolute EV sales should certainly get even higher -- but that will mostly likely *not* result in higher EV market share. On the contrary: much of the current records come from models that have been supply-constrained before, and thus holding up better right now than the overall market...
DeleteI expect both, higher market shares and higher absolute numbers.
DeleteMuch of the current records come from the ramp up of new models or updated versions and less so of YoY increase of existing old models (Tesla M3, BMW i3 and 225xe down YoY, Kona, Smart flat, exception e-Golf) and that mechanism of continued ramp up and new model introductions will drive higher market shares and absolute sales in Q3, Q4 - Q2 I expect lower absolute numbers, but still higher shares
There is no doubt that all the new models will result in significant YoY growth of EV share in the latter part of the year as well -- but as the overall market recovers, I doubt the EV share will surpass the current peak resulting from the exceptional situation...
DeleteWhy do the large Tesla models perform rather poorly? (for example model x vs e-tron)
ReplyDeleteAnd whaty do you think is volkswagen still earning money with the discounts of the e-Golf or just preventing fines?
It was always going to be an uphill battle for Tesla to beat the Germans in their own turf, it's a bit like the Audi e-Tron beating the Model X in the US, highly unlikely.
DeleteOn top of that, the Model 3 (and future Model Y) are cheaper ways to get into Tesla ownership, especially the access to Tesla Superchargers, this alone is stealing significant sales from the big Teslas, add this to the fact that they now have competition (Audi e-Tron, Porsche Taycan…) and you have an adverse environment for them.
Same thing is happening in China, they are being trailed by the competition, and it's no coincidence that two big Chinses Sedans (Xpeng P7 and BYD Han) are landing now, they are going after Tesla's weakest link, the Model S.
In short: since until recently the Model S and X were the only really good EVs available, many people were getting them who normally wouldn't have bought such large and expensive vehicles. Now that an increasing number of decent cheaper choices are becoming available -- both from Tesla itself and from other makers -- these expensive models are being relegated to a smaller luxury niche, where they rightfully belong...
Delete(The e-tron for example is a smaller, and -- especially in Europe -- quite a bit cheaper vehicle than the Model X: so it naturally should sell better, even accounting for inferior technology...)
Right now, the situation is somewhat exacerbated by the fact they these models use older technology in some places than Tesla's cheaper models; as well as Osborne effect from an announced upcoming new power train, and persistent expectations/rumours of unannounced other upgrades coming...
As for the e-Golf, it's unlikely that it was *ever* profitable, when not accounting for regulatory fines...
Deletebei the way, e-Golf can no longer be ordered, the configuration is off. It is unclear whether it will be switched on at some point again.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a temporary measure? I mean, production is set to continue until October, and i don't believe they might have a 5-month waiting list for the e-Golf...
DeleteThey announced the closure of self configurated orders for good
DeleteWow, 5 months waiting list. For a model on the way out. Now, imagine the ID.3 waiting list...
DeleteNo longer taking custom orders doesn't necessarily mean the entire production is sold out... They might just do sales of standard configurations only through inventory going forward.
Delete