Looking at the Q1 2021 sales by Automotive Group, we have:
PHEV+BEV
If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla ended the first quarter of the year in the lead, with 16% share, 3% less than a year ago, which nevertheless is still a small feat all by itself, considering the intensive diversification process that the EV world is now having, 16% is still significant.
Tesla's current domination is however being threatened by the Volkswagen Group the rise and rise of SAIC, that jumped from #9 in Q1 2020, to the current 2nd spot, with its share jumping from 4% a year ago, to the current 13%.
Although most of this growth has to do with the Wuling Mini EV success story, the truth is that SAIC itself is also benefiting from the export efforts made through MG (it is the only Chinese EV brand that sells in volume outside its home country), with leading roles in the EV movement in diverse geographies, from Latin America to Australia, passing by Israel and other Middle Eastern markets, and as these EV markets grow, so too will MG (and SAIC).
Although being surpassed by SAIC, the Volkswagen Group reduced its distance to the leader from 6% (19% vs 13% in Q1 2020), to the current 4% (16% vs 12%), so not all is lost for the German conglomerate, in its goal to discuss the global leadership, but what has changed in the last 12 months is that Tesla doesn't have just one competitor (VW Group) trying to catch it, but two (VWG and SAIC).
Will this mean that Tesla will lose the 2021 title? Despite an expected strong second half of the year for the VW Group, I believe Tesla will still end the year in the lead, but for 2022...All bets are on.
The BMW Group ended the first quarter of the year in the 4th place, improving on the #5 of 2020, benefiting from the implosion of the Renault-Nissan Alliance (a year ago, the Alliance had 11% share, now it has 5%...) and the popularity of its PHEV lineup.
We now have a new face on this Top 5, with Stellantis rising to 5th, with 6% share, thanks to an extensive lineup, spreaded through its 205 brands, and with the #4 BMW Group just 11.000 units ahead, we could see it run for the 4th spot soon.
Regarding the Q1 2020 ranking, we witness the disappearance of the Hyundai-Kia Group, that has seen its share drop by half, from 8% a year ago, to the current 4%, so those Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 are badly needed to change the fortunes of the Korean group.
BEV
Looking only at BEVs, Tesla is comfortable in the lead, with 25% share, but has lost 4% share regarding the same period of last year, but the fact that 1 in 4 BEVs sold in the World belongs to Tesla is a feat in itself, considering the current diversification process.
The Silver medal is in the hands of the 2020 Silver medalist, SAIC, with the Chinese maker jumping its share by 6%, to the current 17%, not only leaving the 3rd placed Volkswagen Group in the dust (they ended 2020 separated by just 16.000 units), but they are now starting to see Tesla's rear more clearly.
The self-registering stunt of late last year by the Volkswagen Group is now having its payback, with the first two months of the year being registration low points, with March helping it to recover a bit, but it wasn't enough to recover the 11% share that the German conglomerate had both in Q1 2020 and by the end of last year.
The self-registering stunt of late last year by the Volkswagen Group is now having its payback, with the first two months of the year being registration low points, with March helping it to recover a bit, but it wasn't enough to recover the 11% share that the German conglomerate had both in Q1 2020 and by the end of last year.
Will we see it recover significantly in Q2?
Just outside the podium we have BYD, with 5% share, with the Chinese carmaker rising one spot regarding 2020, not because it has increased its share (it was actually down from 6% to the current 5%), but because of the Renault-Nissan implosion, with the Alliance now having 4% share, a far cry from the 13%(!) it had 12 months ago...
Like in the PHEV+BEV ranking, Stellantis shows up in the Top 5 BEV ranking for the first time, in 5th, with 5% share, but despite being just 3.000 units behind the #4 BYD, do not expect it to surpass the Chinese maker anytime soon, as BYD is now set to increase deliveries significantly, now that all its BEV lineup has transitioned to the new LFP batteries.
Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, it disappears from the Top 5, being replaced by the more BEV-friendly BYD.
Renault had a big lead when there was no competition.
ReplyDeleteNow Zoe's design similar to Nissan Note looks outdated just like GM Bolt.
Peugeot 208, Opel Corsa, Citroën e-c4 and Fiat 500e seem to gain customers favor.
Maybe Dacia Spring can help.
Will model 3 suffer like Zoe in the future?
Right now it's design still looks acceptable.
The Fiat 500 is a different size class; and so is the C4.
DeleteAs for the 208 and Corsa, I'm not convinced it has anything to do with styling. I did expect these to make significant inroads, as they are offering faster charging and otherwise similar specs -- I'm just surprised it took so long. Though I'm not sure the current Zoe slump is actually indicative of future trends...
In Q1 Renault sold 14.000 Zoe's, 5.000 Twingo EVs and 3.000 Kangoo EV's. One would expect that with Nissan EV's added, the top 5 BEV is within reach.
DeleteActually, I think VW might have a better chance of beating Tesla (when including PHEVs in the count) in 2021 than in 2022... Apparently they have a goal of selling over a million EVs this year (something like 1.1 million IIRC?) -- while at this point it doesn't look like Tesla will quite reach a million.
ReplyDeleteOf course VW failed to fulfil their BEV sales goals in 2020 (due to production delays in Europe, and weak demand in China) -- so it's entirely possible that they will fall short again this year... Which means the race is still very much on.
Meanwhile, in 2022, Tesla should see another huge jump in production, to 1.5 million at least -- while I don't think VW has particularly aggressive growth plans for next year?...
The publicly stated goal is to sell up to 1 million BEV + PHEV in 2021 for the whole Volkswagen group.
DeleteOnly "up to"? I guess I misremembered...
DeleteAccording to some suppliers, Tesla is apparently also planning for up to a million vehicles -- so this should be really interesting :-)
In some countries in Europe the VW group seem to have sold more EVs+PHEVs in April alone than the full first quarter and now in May the Skoda Enyaq seems to be delivered in substancial amounts, it seems we should not at all look at first quarter 2021 as a benchmark for the rest of the year as regards VW group, 1 million in 2021 seems a lot to me but like around 0.9 million reachable. I believe both VW group and Tesla will end up 2021 neck to neck. For Tesla, the fog of what's happening in China needs to be dissipated to have a better view of what 2022 & 2023 will look like. (Tesla is under pressure in China and as CCP controls everything there, we know where from it's coming but we (I) do not know what the CCP wants exactly).
Delete"we (I) do not know what the CCP wants exactly)."
DeleteTrying to tell Biden that if you scuttle our companies (Huawei n other companies' chip ban) your companies will have hard time too. I doubt they will do anything drastic against Tesla but i feel they are sending message that American (or western) companies depend on China.
VW has extremely aggressive growth plans for next year. The thing to count is how many factories they're converting to BEV production. I believe there are five currently in the works.
DeleteThe biggest capacity additions underway are the new Chinese joint-venture factories -- but given the lukewarm reception of VW's BEVs in that market thus far, these aren't likely to ramp anywhere near their full capacity any time soon.
DeleteThe Ioniq 5 / EV6 look so promising, they could probably outsell some entire major groups on their own... Except that knowing Hyundai, initial production will surely again be way way below demand :-(
ReplyDeleteScratch that: with the Kia pricing now revealed (and the Hyundai variant presumably being similar), it doesn't look like they will be quite as mainstream as I thought. While Tesla-like specs arguably justify the premium pricing, I'm not sure many people will accept it from brands that haven't exactly been perceived as premium in the past...
DeleteQ1 Sales total is 1,128,003
ReplyDeleteBut Jan + Feb + Mar = 321031+269743+531702 = 1,122,476
What am i missing?
Corrections for Jan + Feb are included now ?
DeleteTesla shares not worthy $700
ReplyDeleteTesla has not sold any model during the first week of May in Norway. Is this really a growth stock and industry leader?
Delete@Heinrich
DeletePlease stop that nonsense.
You know by now that Tesla deliveries only in the second half of a quarter.
@Koogle - true. But will it really be enough to sell its products only in 4 out of 12 months a year? That was a nice publicity stunt as long as competition was little to none existent. The BEV market is maturing and Tesla has to do business like grown ups if it wants to compete in a grown ups' market.
Delete@Nikita Hund
DeleteFully agree with you.
They have more than enough capacity to deliver more regularly since they produce in China.
Deliveries should even out once they have factories in all major markets, i.e. fairly soon. Until then, most people don't mind waiting a few weeks for delivery.
DeleteAs for "publicity stunt", that's bullshit, and you know it.
Do we know towards which group the SAIC-VW ID.4 X will be counted? Or the FAW-VW ID.4 Crozz?
ReplyDeleteBoth are counted as Volkswagen
DeleteStellantis
ReplyDeleteCitroën Ami
Fiat 500e
Peugeot 208 EV
Opel/Vauxhall Corsa EV
Citroën C4 EV
Peugeot 2008 EV
Opel/Vauxhall Mokka EV
Opel/Vauxhall Vivaro EV
Fiat E-Ducato
... and many more
Stellantis, not much talk, but plenty of action.
DeleteStellantis is becoming a reflection of Tavares own persona: Not much of an innovator, but not a laggard either...
DeleteSo if Stellantis are 4th in the overall Automotive industry, expect them to be around that mark in the (ever-expanding) EV niche.
Tesla Mission is to accelerate trade-ins ownership by sending the majority of their 98% ICE traded in vehicles to used market auctions
ReplyDeleteWhat else are they supposed to do with the trade-ins?
DeleteIs Sol brand member of VAG?
ReplyDeleteYes.
DeleteCurious why Renault-Nissan is missing among Top 5 EV manufacturers. In Q1, Renault alone sold 14.000 Zoe's, 5.000 Twingo EV's, 3.000 Kangoo EV's. Guess Nissan's LEAF easeliy adds enough to pip the #5's 35.400 ex.
ReplyDeleteThe Kangoo qualifies as a light commercial vehicle I believe, which IIRC aren't included in the count?...
DeleteYep, just like the Twizy or the Master.
DeleteStupid legacy carmakers, one by one derailed by chip shortages. Look Smart asshole Tesla: Model S and Model X line shutdown for almost 6 months now...
ReplyDeleteThe model switchover has nothing to do with the chip shortage.
Delete(And it's less than 5 months... But why let pesky facts stand in the way of your narrative, right?)
Tesla, permanently in Beta iterations.
ReplyDelete12 days into May and not even 1 market report! What's up?
ReplyDeletewritten by Looney Tunes
Daimler
ReplyDeleteM-B eCitaro
M-B eActros
Fuso eCanter
M-B eSprinter
M-B eVito
M-B EQC
M-B EQA
Smart ForFour EQ
Smart ForTwo EQ
... and many more
At this pace, they will soon exceed the latin alphabet for their "EQ" range and start to use the Greek or Cyrillic alphabet...
DeleteHow about a "EQΓ" or "EQи"?
VAG will pass everyone by the end of 2022 when ID4, Skoda Enyac, E tron Q4, Porsche Taycan Tourismo have matured. And if that dosen t happen in 2022 it will happen in 2023 with the addition new ID wagon, sedan and van in 2022, as well as some new E tron lineups....
ReplyDeleteIn BEVs, VW Group will definitely *not* surpass Tesla in 2022 or 2023. Last I heard, VW is planning for 1.5 million BEVs per year by 2025 -- Tesla will likely reach that in 2022. VW *might* edge out Tesla when including PHEVs in the count.
DeleteVW makes conservative estimates and then exceeds them. Tesla makes optimistic estimates and then misses them.
DeleteI'm counting factories. VW is ramping up BEV production faster than Tesla. It's only a matter of time before they exceed Tesla's production rate.
VW missed last year's "conservative" estimates -- not to mention longer-term estimates they made years ago...
DeleteIn terms of factories, VW is certainly ramping fast recently: but not faster than Tesla by my count. Berlin + Texas should add well above a million of yearly production capacity between them in phase 1 -- on top of Shanghai and Nevada/Fremont expansions. While VW will very likely grow faster this year, Tesla will probably widen the gap again next year.
Tesla; in 2020 FSD will be piloting the Model 3 robotaxis. LOL
ReplyDelete