Netherlands July 2017

Who will win the sub-40.000€ Best Selling Model contest?

BMW i3 shines in holiday season

Looking at July results, numbers dropped 43% YoY, to just 443 units, with the BMW i3 winning its second Monthly Best Seller award, with 78 deliveries (77 BEV, 1 Rex), with the Hyundai Ioniq Electric climbing to Second Place, with 53 units, while the Tesla Model S was only Third, with only 40 deliveries, its worst performance in over a year, was it a question of Tesla having other priorities (Model 3, anyone?), or was the new Tesla casting its shadow over its older sibling? 

Pl	Model	Sales
1	BMW i3	78
2	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	53
3	Tesla Model S	40
4	Renault Zoe	39
5	Tesla Model X	38

Looking at the YTD ranking, the BMW i3 climbed to Third Place, surpassing the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, with the German model becoming the Best Selling regular-priced (<40.000 €) BEV, ahead of the aforementioned Hyundai, 3 units behind, and the French Renault Zoe, 64 units behind. Should be an entertaining race to see...

Another two BEVs are climbing the ranking stairs, with the Mercedes B250e up to #12 and the Kia Soul EV in #13, while at this year newcomers, the much awaited Opel Ampera-e is already showing its smiley face, in #18, while the recently arrived Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins were the Best Selling PHEVs last month, with 13 registrations, allowing it to jump to #26.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is head and shoulders above the competition (32%), while in Second Place we have BMW (13%, up 1%), with Hyundai now closing the podium, with 11% share, closely followed by Renault (10%).

Pl	Netherlands	June	YTD	%	'16Pl
1 2	Tesla Model S Tesla Model X	40 38	868 518	20 12	5 15
3	BMW i3	78	498	11	14
4	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	53	495	11	23
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14	Renault Zoe Nissan Leaf Volkswagen e-Golf Volvo XC90 PHEV Mitsu. Outlander PHEV  Mercedes GLC350e Porsche Panamera PHV Mercedes B250e  Kia Soul EV  Porsche Cayenne Plug-in	39 31 35 12 3 5 11 10 5 2	434 389 208 107 73 68 62 51 46 44	10 9 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 1	17 13 19 3 7 31 33 20 27 25
14 16 17 18	Volkswagen Passat GTE Volkswagen e-Up! T. Prius Plug-In (Gen I&II) Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	2 3	44 37 35 32	1 1 1 1	1 24 22 16
18 20	Opel Ampera-e Mini Countryman PHEV	21 5	32 30	1 1	N/A  N/A
21	BMW 530e	10	29	1	N/A
22 23 23	BMW 225xe Act Tourer Citröen C-Zero Audi Q7 e-Tron	6 6	26 23 23	1 1 1	11 38 6 4
25 26 26	Mercedes C350e  Mercedes E350e Volvo S/V90 PHEV	1 1 13	18 17 17	0 0 0	4 10 10 N/A
28	Smart Forfour ED	1	16	0	N/A
28 28 28	Smart Fortwo ED BMW 330e BMW i8 Others	2 3 2 5	16 16 16 83	0 0 0 2	38 2 29
	TOTAL	442	4.375	100

       







































Source: RAI Vereniging

Tesla Model S & Others

Pl	Model	July Sales
1	Volvo S/V90	231
2	BMW 5-Series	230
3	Mercedes E-Class	178
4	Audi A6	85
5	Tesla Model S	40

Looking at the E-Segment/full-size vehicles, this time the Volvo S/V90 has beaten the BMW 5-Series, if by just one unit, with the Tesla Model S dropping to Fifth, due to an underwhelming month (Only 40 deliveries).

Tesla Model X & Others

Pl	Model	July Sales
1	Volvo XC90	52
2	Tesla Model X	38
3	Jaguar F-Pace	23
4	BMW X5	22
5	Mercedes GLE	20

Big SUV's had a big hit with the end of PHEV incentives, to the benefit of the Tesla Model X, which now has the big advantage of being the only model eligible to plug-in incentives, but this month the Volvo XC90 managed to pull out a surprise and surpass it, by registering 52 units.

A mere blip in the Model X rule or has the American SUV found a competitor for the Best Selling Luxury SUV title in this market?

Tesla Model 3 or Model S?

I wasn't surprised when i read that the presentation of the Tesla Model 3 lead to an increase
 in Model 3 reservations, ditto for the Model X (More mainstream media coverage, leading to even more brand awareness), but also more reservations for Model S?....

Now that's news!

This is a car that is on the roads since 2012 against its younger, cheaper, sibling that was just launched...

Thing is, when you think about it, the Model 3 isn't that cheap once you spec it properly.

Base Price: $35,000

Any colour aside from black: +$1,000

Some nice rims (Base ones are colour sensitive): +$1,500

Upgrade Interior (I mean, a car in this class without Auto Dimming? Really?): +$5,000

Long Range battery (Because 220 miles is less than the nasty little Bolt...): +$9,000

Which gives you the nice figure of...$51,500.

And that's without AutoPilot stuff.

A big pill to swallow for the middle class, but not that bad for the current typical Tesla customer, right?

Well, if you have the cash for the specced Model 3, you might as well think about the Model S 75, that for $69,500, gives you an (even) faster car (0-60 in 4,3 secs vs 5,1), a bit less range (249 vs 310), AND a hatchback with plenty of space inside!

And unlimited Supercharging!

And a decent interior!

And air suspension!

Oh, and did i mentioned it has a hatchback? Ok, ok...Rear Liftgate...

If you add up all that, the #18,000 difference between both cars starts to be justified and you start to have doubts on which to choose, yes, you get less range on the S, but on the other hand, with unlimited Supercharging, that's not really a hassle, right?

Long story short, considering the above, i think some customers just went: "Hey, why should i wait for this Model 3, if the larger Model S is available and not that more expensive?"

If the volume of these customers is significant, we will surely find out on the September results and see how will the Model S behave then, up, down or so so?

USA July 2017

Tesla Model 3, VIN 0000001. Surely the first of millions. And the dawn of a new era.

The Messiah has landed

Yes, the Honda Clarity Electric has arrived, with 34 deliveries...

...Just kidding, July 2017 signaled the registration of the first units of the much awaited (and hyped) Tesla Model 3, granted, it were just 30 units and we shouldn't consider them as actual "deliveries", but more as Beta testers, as they were handed to Tesla employees, so any kinks they might have will be handled inhouse, with no disclosure to the outside world.

Anyway, these are the first of what will be many thousands units zooming Californian streets, so as Ragnar Lothbrok would say: "Skal"!

But enough of Rookies, back to the overall market, 15.607 units were registered, leaving the YTD EV Share at a record 1.1%, with over 100.000 units already registered, the US market is headed for a record year, with December possibly surpassing the 250.000 units landmark.

Good news for the problem child Chevrolet Bolt, winning #1 in July (First of many Best Seller awards?), with 1.971 units, the first time it beats its Volt older brother. Interestingly, the PHEV model registered only 1.518 units last month, its worst result in over a year. Is the new kid on the GM block beggining to hurt its sales? 

In a stable ranking, the only notable changes were the climbs of the BMW's 330e and 530e, to #13 and #21 respectively, which means the German automaker is pushing production to (finally) satisfy demand for its PHEVs.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (22%, down 1%) has lost ground to the Second Placed Chevrolet (21%). Looking forward, while Chevrolet will get a (small) boost in sales from the nationwide availability of its Bolt, Tesla should trounce it by year end, once the Model 3 production hits volume numbers.

 The race for Third place is also close, with Ford (11%, down 1%) resisting (For how long?) to Toyota, also with 11% share and some 1.000 units behind.

Pl	USA	July	YTD	%
1	Tesla Model S e)	1.425	12620	12
2	Chevrolet Volt	1.518	12450	12
3	Toyota Prius Prime	1.645	11337	11
4	Tesla Model X e)	1.650	10595	10
5	Chevrolet Bolt	1.971	9.563	9
6	Nissan Leaf	1.283	8.531	8
7	Ford Fusion Energi	703	5.760	5
8	Ford C-Max Energi	844	5.224	5
9 10	Fiat 500e BMW i3	475 601	4.303 3.593	4 3
11	BMW X5 PHEV	463	2.609	2
12	Audi A3 e-Tron	218	2.338	2
13 14 15	BMW 330e Volkswagen e-Golf Hyu. Sonata PHEV	387 308 205	2.256 2.195 1.620	2 2 2
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30	C. Pacifica PHEV Ford Focus electric Por. Cayenne PHEV Kia Soul EV Volvo XC90 PHEV BMW 530e Mercedes S500e Kia Optima PHEV Mercedes C350e Mercedes B250e BMW 740e Mercedes GLE550e BMW i8 Hyundai Ioniq Elec. Mini Country. PHEV Others	125 148 160 145 174 343 124 130 112 81 80 27 55 43 75 89	1.532 1.206 1.138 981 949 742 535 520 400 398 383 295 275 200 85 230	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
	TOTAL	15607	104863	100

 e) Estimate

Source: insideevs.com; goodcarbadcar.com


Tesla Model S & Others

Pl	Model	July Sales
1	Mercedes E/CLS-Class	3.876
2	BMW 5-Series	3.173
3	Mercedes S-Class	1.470
4	Tesla Model S e)	1.425
5	Audi A6	1.218

Looking at the E-Segment/full-size vehicles, both the Mercedes E/CLS-Class and BMW 5-Series benefit from volume deliveries of the new generation to stay well above the other models, with the Tesla Model S dropping to Fourth Place, thanks to a strong month of the #3 Mercedes S-Class. 

It will be interesting to see if the upcoming Model 3 will cannibalize sufficient sales of the Model S, that forces it to drop it below this Top 5.

As for the Tesla Model X, its 1.650 units were not enough to reach the Top 5 in its class (#5 was the Mercedes GLS, with 2.403 registrations), ending the month in Seventh Place, proving once again that the Tesla SUV should have been doing much better (Around 3.000 units/month) than its five year old brother.

Sweden July 2017

The big Kia is getting some unexpected lovin' in Sweden

Outlander PHEV #1 in July, Kia Optima PHEV shines

There were 1.174 units registered in Sweden last month, a 19% increase over the same period last year, pulling the EV Share to a record 4.3%.

Looking at July Best Sellers, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was the Best Seller for the second time in a row, delivering 203 units, while in Second Place we have a surprise, with the Kia Optima PHEV delivering a record 169 units, its highest standing anywhere in the world. 

On the other hand, the VW Passat GTE was down to Third, its worst performance of the year. Momentary blip, or is the German midsizer having troubles?

Also of notice are the 53 registrations of the Volvo XC60 PHEV, as the production ramps up, expect it to become a regular on the podium.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	203
2	Kia Optima PHEV	169
3	VW Passat GTE	161
4	BMW 330e	55
5	Volvo XC60 PHEV	53

Looking at the YTD models ranking, there weren't many changes at the top, with the most important being the rise of the BMW 330e to Fifth Place, dropping the Volvo V60 PHEV to #6 (Feeling the internal competition?).

Besides the aforementioned Kia Optima PHEV surge, which allowed it to jump to #9, the BMW 530e is confirming the early success, now being #16 and Best Selling Rookie, but i bet it won't be for long, as Volvo's new babies, the #23 S/V90 T8 twins and the #20 XC60 T8 SUV start to get their engines running. Will we see them being sold in the hundreds per month soon?

Other PHEV's are climbing the ranking, like the #17 Prius PHV and #19 Ioniq PHEV, but the most unexpected performer is the new longer-ranged Porsche Panamera PHEV, registering 23 units, which is the best PEV result Porsche has ever made in Sweden. Is the German carmaker becoming a sort of German Tesla?

On the EV manufacturers ranking, the leader Volkswagen (27%, down 2%) is starting to lose ground, down 4% share in two months, followed from a far by Mitsubishi (15%) in the runner-up place, while BMW (13%) is Third, but the Fourth Placed Volvo is in comeback mode, so expect their share (11%) to rise significantly in the near future.

Pl	Sweden	July	YTD '17	%	'16Pl
1 2 3	Volkswagen Passat GTE Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Nissan Leaf	161 203 48	2.150 1.456 827	23 15 9	1 2 6
4	Tesla Model S	34	480	5	5
5	BMW 330e	55	466	5	7
6	Volvo V60 Plug-In	23	438	5	3
7	Renault Zoe	42	393	4	10
8 9 10 11 12	Volvo XC90 T8 Kia Optima PHEV Tesla Model X BMW i3  Volkswagen Golf GTE	26 169 23 24 20	369 344 313 257 234	4 4 3 3 2	4 19 11 8 9
13 14 15	BMW X5 40e BMW 225xe Active Tourer Mercedes GLC350e	25 22 36	197 191 182	2 2 2	13 12 29
16	BMW 530e	31	119	1	N/A
17	Toyota Prius PHV	23	107	1	23
18 19 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 26 28 29 30	Mercedes C350e Hyundai Ioniq PHEV Volvo XC60 T8 Audi A3 e-Tron Volkswagen e-Up! Volvo S/V90 T8 Volkswagen e-Golf Nissan Evalia / e-NV200 Mercedes E350e Mercedes B250e Kia Soul EV Porsche Panamera PHEV Audi Q7 e-Tron Others	6 44 53 6 2 37 11 1 6 3 6 23 4 6	101 100 97 95 74 68 62 45 39 38 38 36 31 66	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1	18 N/A N/A 14 16 N/A 17 21 34 30 24 36 20
	TOTAL	1.174	9.413	100

Source: bilsweden.se

Fuel Cells June 2017 - Fools Cells?

We take a look at Fuel Cell vehicles sales performance in the first half of 2017, after the introduction of the Toyoa Mirai in 2015, FCEV's are on their Year Two, more or less where EV's were in 2012, so if they follow the same growth curve as plug-ins, we should see this technology reach 100.000 sales this year.

Well, is it going to reach six digits? At 1.602 units registered this year, up 39% YoY, it is well below that, if they reach 5.000 this year, it will already be a good result

But let's look at the individual performances of the three models currently on sale:

Toyota Mirai - 1.169 Mirai were registered in 2017, a small step above the 1.020 of the previous year, but well below expectations. I had thought the model would be selling around 1.000 units/month, so...Why the slow sales?

Honda Clarity FCEV - 359 units were registered in  the first half of its first full sales year, well above the 113 units of 2016, its landing year, but below expectations (1.000 units in the first half of 2017). But the interesting thing here is that Honda, maybe realizing the upcoming disaster, decided to make the car available also as PHEV and BEV. It will be up to the consumer to decide what to pick, and i bet both the BEV and PHEV will outsell the FCEV version...

Hyundai ix35/Tucson FCEV - Numbers of the Korean Fuel Cell dropped slightly regarding 2016, with 74 units being registered this year. A discontinued model in its ICE form, and currently being done by special order, it is  amazingly still the best selling FCEV in Europe, with 46 units.

If the Model 3 is BMW's boogeyman, imagine what it should be to Fuel Cells...

(Spoiler alert: Diapers needed)

The Future

Looking forward, the upcoming 2018 Hyundai FE Fuel Cell may be the technology last chance to survive, said to have 800 kms range and, crucially, cheaper than the 65.000 euro, it could be the break out model needed to reach the tens of thousands units per year, the minimum needed to start creating economies of scale.

Thing is...2018 will be Year One of the EV entry into the mainstream, with exponential growth and at least three models surpassing the 100.000 units sales per year (Tesla Model 3 - 300k; Nissan Leaf II - 150-200k; Toyota Prius Prime/PHV - 120k), and the Chinese market continuing to grow in large volumes, the economies of scale for PEVs are becoming too large for Fuel Cells to follow suit.

And with no other automakers betting for real in FCEVs, it all looks that the technology will become a footnote in the passenger car history, possibly as part of a Fools Cell joke.

Now, regarding Heavy Duty Trucks and Buses, they could still have a shot of success here, but with with the Tesla Semi Truck coming in a couple of years and the Chinese BEV Bus makers preparing to invade foreign markets, the window of success is becoming smaller and smaller...

Automotive Groups June 2017 (Updated)

Toyota: "News of our demise have been greatly exaggerated..."

Looking at sales by automotive groups, the Renault-Nissan Alliance, now reinforced with Mitsubishi, is unsurprisingly in the Pole Position, with 14% share, while Tesla climbed to Second Place and the BMW Group to Third, at the expense of BYD, down to Fourth.

But the 2017 Best Selling OEM title will be a disputed race, as the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi trifecta will have to defend their leadeership from BYD and Tesla, both poised to increase significantly their production in the second half of the year.

Volkswagen's slow performance allowed BAIC and Toyota to surpass it, thus dropping two positions to #7.

Interestingly, Toyota needed just one model to come out of no where and beat the VAG stable, composed by Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche. Not bad, uh? 

As for the remaining players, GM is not profiting as it should from the Bolt introduction, languishing still in #8, while the Geely-Volvo duo is suffering from lower than expected sales from the Chinese part of the equation.

A significant entry to the ranking is the Hyundai-Kia Group, at #10, that despite chronical production constraints on both brands, is growing exponentially, having registered as much plug-ins in the first half of 2017 as in the whole of 2016...Which had already doubled sales regarding 2015. 

If this fast growth pace continues, and there is no reason to think otherwise, as the Korean Group announced significant production increases and an extended production lineup, expect it to reach GM and VAG sales levels by the end of this year, or the beggining of the next one.

Automotive Group	Units	% of sales
Renault-Nissan	61.951	14
Tesla	47.000	10
BMW Group	42.573	9
BYD	35.758	8
BAIC	30.151	7
Toyota	26.920	6
Volkswagen Group	25.711	6
General Motors	23.104	5
Zhidou Hyundai-Kia	18.718 15.049	4 3
Geely Group	14.999	3