Belgium May 2018

Strange Days

A total of 1,202 passenger plug-ins were registered last month in Belgium, down 14% YoY, this being the second consecutive drop in once a fast growing market, despite the 2018 count being still in positive territory (+7%), there is no easy explanation for this behavior.

Looking at numbers in more detail, the drop came from the PHEV side (-20%), as BEVs had a (slightly) positive month (+8% YoY), with the all-electric team recovering significant share (23%, +5%) in the BEV/PHEV sales breakdown, we have to go back three years, to 2015, to see puré electrics with such high share numbers. A statiscal blip, or is one of the most PHEV-friendly markets losing their love for dual motor plug-ins?  

But back at May results, last month Best Selling models were the #1 Mercedes GLC350e, with 116 units, and the Volvo XC90 PHEV, that with 114 registrations, had its best result this year, with these two being the only nameplates to reach three digit scores. 

The Swedish SUV result allowed it to have highest climb in the ranking, with the XC90 PHEV jumping four positions, to #7, but other high end models also had a positive month, with the Porsche Panamera PHEV reaching the Podium, in Third Place, the Tesla Model X leaping three positions, to #14, and the Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins rising to #18, thanks to 32 deliveries, a new year best.   

Elsewhere, the new Nissan Leaf continues its slow, but steady climb, having risen two positions, to #13, thanks to 67 units, the nameplate best result in 14 months. It seems the local importer is not getting much attention from the Nissan Mothership, as the Sunderland factory is not making Leaf's fast enough and the carmaker is focusing in other markets. 

In the manufacturers ranking, the leader BMW lost share (-3%), to 29%, while Volvo (15%, up 2%) recovered the runner-up place, distancing itself from the now Third Placed Mercedes (13%).

Outside the podium, Porsche and Volkswagen are running for Fourth, both having 8% share, with the Wolfsburg brand leading by just 9 units.

Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids

Pl	Model	May
1	Toyota C-HR Hybrid	361
2	Toyota Auris Hybrid	163
2	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	147
4	Toyota RAV4 Hybrid	136
5	Mercedes GLC350e	116

Combining May sales of regular hybrids with plug-ins, we can see that HEVs are growing faster (+38%) than plug-ins (+7%), with four(!) Toyota hybrids in the lead, while the best plug-in is the Mercedes GLC350e, in Fifth Place.

Twelve months ago, the picture was quite different, with only two HEVs in the Top 5, and two PHEVs in the podium (#2 BMW X5 PHEV & #3 BMW 225xe AT). 

It seems local fleet buyers are dropping Diesel (maybe?) and PHEVs in favor of HEVs. 

Sweden May 2018

Waiting for the Bonus-Malus, minus two months

We start May with the Sweden sales report, the local plug-in market was up 28% YoY, with 2,016 registrations, helping the yearly tally to grow +58% regarding the same period last year, placing the 2018 PEV Share at 6.6%, dropping from the 7% of April, which had already dipped from the 7.2% record of March.

Why this sales slowdown? A new fiscal system will start on July 1st, where regular ICE models will see their taxes increased (Malus), to the profit of most PHEVs, but especially BEVs, that will see their incentives (Bonus) increase to some 6,000 euros, which explains why PHEVs are slowing down (+45% in May vs 78% in 2018) and BEVs are sinking (-26% in May, 58% in 2018).

So expect all-electric models to surge from July on, with PHEVs as a whole also benefitting from the new system.

Here are some cases: BEVs increase their bonus by 2,000€ to 6,000€, while the PHEV bonus depend on the CO2 grams emitted, eg, the Toyota Prius PHEV (22g) will see their bonus double to +/-4,000€, the Kia Niro PHEV (29g) doubles to some 3,500€, the VW Golf GTE (38g) sees its incentive grow slightly (800€) to 2,800€, while the Volvo XC60 PHEV (49g) loses some incentive (800€), dropping the total value to 1,900€. Hat tip to Micke for these examples.

So basically, the lower co2/km grams, the higher the incentive. Besides BEVs, will be interesting to see which PHEVs will have a boost from the new system.

But back at May, Diesel sales continue to sink, with this fuel representing only 39% of last month sales, a steep 12% drop over the 51% of May '17, which makes one think that Diesel sales might be dead by 2022. And to think in 2012, Diesel had 67% of the market...

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the VW Passat GTE continues to rule without discussion, having scored 321 units, two faces reappear, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV took the Silver Medal, with 239 units (Best result in 6 months), while the Kia Niro PHEV showed up in Fourth, thanks to 204 deliveries.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	VW Passat GTE	321
2	Mit. Outlander PHEV	239
3	Kia Optima PHEV	214
4	Kia Niro PHEV	204
5	Volvo V60 PHEV	171

Looking at the 2018 ranking, not much changed, the main news were the Outlander PHEV climbing one position, to #4, as it tries to reach the podium positions. 

The other change was the BMW 330e reaching #10, surpassing the Hyundai Ioniq Electric (19 units, worst result in 4 months), highlighting the BEV Bonus Malus waiting game.

A mention for the BMW 530e, recording a new best, with 75 units. 

Close race in the manufacturers ranking, with Volvo (22%) resisting the advances of last year leader Volkswagen (21%, up 1%), with Kia closing the podium, with 17% share (+2%), comfortably ahead of BMW (10%).

Source: bilsweden

Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids

Pl	Model	May
1	Toyota C-HR Hybrid	578
2	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	387
2	Toyota Auris Hybrid	387
4	VW Passat GTE	321
5	Kia Niro	271

Combining May sales of regular hybrids with plug-ins, HEVs are the large majority, with three Toyota hybrids in the podium, while the VW Passat GTE is the only plug-in here, in Fourth Place.

It will be interesting to see if this ranking will be impacted by the new system, as regular hybrid prices will mostly remain the same, without any Bonus/Malus interference.