Waiting for the Bonus-Malus, minus two months
We start May with the Sweden sales report, the local plug-in market was up 28% YoY, with 2,016 registrations, helping the yearly tally to grow +58% regarding the same period last year, placing the 2018 PEV Share at 6.6%, dropping from the 7% of April, which had already dipped from the 7.2% record of March.
Why this sales slowdown? A new fiscal system will start on July 1st, where regular ICE models will see their taxes increased (Malus), to the profit of most PHEVs, but especially BEVs, that will see their incentives (Bonus) increase to some 6,000 euros, which explains why PHEVs are slowing down (+45% in May vs 78% in 2018) and BEVs are sinking (-26% in May, 58% in 2018).
So expect all-electric models to surge from July on, with PHEVs as a whole also benefitting from the new system.
Here are some cases: BEVs increase their bonus by 2,000€ to 6,000€, while the PHEV bonus depend on the CO2 grams emitted, eg, the Toyota Prius PHEV (22g) will see their bonus double to +/-4,000€, the Kia Niro PHEV (29g) doubles to some 3,500€, the VW Golf GTE (38g) sees its incentive grow slightly (800€) to 2,800€, while the Volvo XC60 PHEV (49g) loses some incentive (800€), dropping the total value to 1,900€. Hat tip to Micke for these examples.
So basically, the lower co2/km grams, the higher the incentive. Besides BEVs, will be interesting to see which PHEVs will have a boost from the new system.
But back at May, Diesel sales continue to sink, with this fuel representing only 39% of last month sales, a steep 12% drop over the 51% of May '17, which makes one think that Diesel sales might be dead by 2022. And to think in 2012, Diesel had 67% of the market...
Looking at last month Best Sellers, the VW Passat GTE continues to rule without discussion, having scored 321 units, two faces reappear, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV took the Silver Medal, with 239 units (Best result in 6 months), while the Kia Niro PHEV showed up in Fourth, thanks to 204 deliveries.
VW Passat GTE
Mit. Outlander PHEV
Kia Optima PHEV
Kia Niro PHEV
Volvo V60 PHEV
Looking at the 2018 ranking, not much changed, the main news were the Outlander PHEV climbing one position, to #4, as it tries to reach the podium positions.
The other change was the BMW 330e reaching #10, surpassing the Hyundai Ioniq Electric (19 units, worst result in 4 months), highlighting the BEV Bonus Malus waiting game.
A mention for the BMW 530e, recording a new best, with 75 units.
Close race in the manufacturers ranking, with Volvo (22%) resisting the advances of last year leader Volkswagen (21%, up 1%), with Kia closing the podium, with 17% share (+2%), comfortably ahead of BMW (10%).
Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids
Toyota C-HR Hybrid
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
Toyota Auris Hybrid
VW Passat GTE
Combining May sales of regular hybrids with plug-ins, HEVs are the large majority, with three Toyota hybrids in the podium, while the VW Passat GTE is the only plug-in here, in Fourth Place.
It will be interesting to see if this ranking will be impacted by the new system, as regular hybrid prices will mostly remain the same, without any Bonus/Malus interference.