Friday, June 29, 2018

Global Top 10 May 2018

Image result for 2018 BAIC EC-Series
The EC-Series is flooding the Chinese streets


Models: Month 2 before TM3 Flood -  BAIC EC-Series climbs to #1

Registrations jumped 75% in May, to almost 160,000 units, the second best month ever, so the current record (174,000 units, in December '17), is in danger to be broken next month.

This positive start of the year is placing the 2018 numbers at some 598,000 units (+71% YoY), with the global PEV share now standing at a record 1.5% share, which makes more and more realistic the prospect that this year we will hit two million units (and over 2% share).  

In May, the BAIC EC-Series was the Best Seller, with 12,624 units (Year Best), dethroning  the Nissan Leaf on the 2018 ranking, that was up 90% over the same month last year. 

Third in April was the rising Tesla Model 3, with a record 6,551 units, that jumped 5 positions in the 2018 ranking, to Fourth, and with the predicted 20-25k set to be delivered in July, will join the podium soon.

Now, regarding the leadership, the Tesla Model 3 will have to go after the BAIC EC-Series, that if it keeps making five-digit performances (And i think it will), it will be hard to catch up.

One thing is certain, previously one thought that the 2018 title would be an easy win for Tesla, but now...It will be an interesting story between these two.

Other models shining in May were the BYD Qin PHEV, scoring 4,500 units (Year best), allowing it to climb to Fifth and become the Best Selling BYD, the SAIC Baojun E100, with 4,310 units, also year best, while the BAIC EX-Series delivered some 4,000 units, proving that the BAIC stable isn't a one-model-show, with other models also able to post significant volumes.  

As for the remaining YTD ranking, the #10 Renault Zoe is in danger of losing the Top 10 place, as it has the Mitsu Outlander PHEV and the BMW i3 lesse than 1,000 units behind, while the fast growing BYD e5 (3,885 units in May) and Zhidou D2 EV (4,262) are also not far behind.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics increased once again their lead (+2%) in May, now representing 63% of the total market, expect this score to be constantly improved throughout the year, to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 

 

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
The one in the middle is said to flood the US charts in July...


Manufacturers:  Month 2 before TM3 Flood - BAIC gets close to Tesla and BYD

May signaled two significant changes, the most important being the return of BAIC to the podium, thanks to 19,589 deliveries (New all-time record), not only closing in on Tesla and BYD, but also making the 2018 title a three horse race, sure, Tesla is still the favorite, but things are getting more complicated every passing month for the Californian brand.

Volkswagen is on fire, breaking its record for the third time in a row(!), with almost 10,000 deliveries, allowing it to surpass Nissan and reach the Fifth Spot, while Roewe also posted a new record result, with 9,382 units.
 
Chevrolet rejoined the Top 10, in #9, thanks to 5,185 units (Year best), while Chery (5,370 units, year best), is moving on up, climbing to #11, being just 200 units behind the #10 Renault, so expect an entertaining race for #10 in June. 


Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese are the unconstested leaders, with 46% (Up 4%) of all deliveries, while Germany (19%, down 1%) holds steady in Second Place, and the USA (13%, down 1%) saved its podium seat from Japan (12%, down 1%).

16 comments:

  1. What does the P.'17 stand for?
    Is it the YoY growth rate?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It’s the models position last year so that you can see how it changes. BAIC EC-series have keeped the first place since last year while Model3 of course have claimed a lot as there was not many deliveries last year.

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  2. You keep saying there will be a Model 3 flood. Do you mean 10,000 a month, 15,000 a month, 20,000 a month? I think Tesla will produce 10,000 to 12,000 model 3s a month and deliver 8,000-9,000 a month after we see a temporary spike in June.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A few days ago a big investor went out and said that Tesla in the second quater will deliver 22 000 Model 3 wish would mean nearly 12000 in June. Elon did however took this article, send to every employee at Tesla and said that they are now going to show how wrong the stock market is about Tesla’s progress. Will they deliver 15 000 in June?
      Now Tesla have had a few shot downs at there factories to improve the production but when Tesla told the market that they had produce over 2k per week in the end of marsh a few said it was just a tempered spike. A few weeks later an internal mail was spread saying that they have produce over 2k per week for the last three weeks before they shoot down the factory again for updates. Now I don’t think you should look at Tesla’s deliveries per month but under Q3 I wouldn’t be suprice if Tesla deliveries 45k Model 3.

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  3. A top 20 in the models ranking would be more interesting (instead of the top 10).

    Please consider that.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousJune 30, 2018

    Great work Jose, Great to see three models from Tesla in the Top Ten but no Ford or GM, I guess they are just not up to the mark.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks, GM could do much better with the Bolt, as for Ford...Well, what can i say? They are Soooo behind the curve!

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  5. Jose,

    Regarding the Nissan Leaf sales in Japan. It's just not that great as I had expected. I think that it has got to do with the size of the car. In Japan people seem to like small cars.

    If Nissan had an EV model the size of the Nissan Micra, I think that Nissan would sell many more EV's in Japan. The size would be smaller than the Nissan Leaf, and the price would be smaller as well.

    Do you agree with that?

    ReplyDelete
  6. I think, we all agree that Nissan needs to have more than one EV model

    I have no idea how they managed to not create any new models in 7 years

    ReplyDelete
  7. Jose,

    When do you think that you will be posting the sales numbers of June in Canada?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe early next week, but i can leave a spoiler: 465 Model 3 were delivered in May, and some 2000 in June.

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    2. We are waiting urgentky for the Model 3 in Germany. We Need disruptive pressure to wake up Mercedes, Audi and BMW. In their home country customers have to wait 1 year for small EVs like SMART ED,

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  8. 456 in fact :) (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dLFJwZVdvNLRpmZqPznlzz6PB9eHMe5b-bai_ddRsNg/htmlview#)
    But it's far better than the 200 to 300 I saw in a lot of sites and which was also my estimate. Now, I wonder if we will have to wait for the release of Canada official Tesla sales number for june in August to know how many TM3 was delivered in the USA this June, and so, to be able to know the faith of the 200,000 cars mark for full tax exemption countdown.

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  9. AnonymousJuly 07, 2018

    Did you ever consider adding a column with EV revenue for the different companies ? Would be so interesting. I would love it

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will study that possibility.

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