Netherlands December 2019

Tesla Model 3 shatters all records in historic month 

December had an amazing 22,983 plugin registrations, a three-fold increase regarding the same month last year, finally beating one of the oldest records in modern EV history, the 15,879 units of December 2016.

This historic result translated into a Norway-like 54% PEV share last month, pulling the 2019 plugin share to 15% (6% in 2018), an awesome result that places this market with the 3rd highest plugin share in the world, only behind Norway and Iceland, but this share gains even another dimension when we realise that BEVs represented 93% of registrations in 2019, and 99%(!) in December alone.

Of course, the higher taxation of BEVs in 2020 is the major reason for this disruption, but after the usual sales hangover in Q1 2020, something this market is used to, expect things to pick up again around Q2/Q3, ending 2020 with another great result, pulling the plugin share well above the 20% mark.

Back to December, this great market performance was the result of a perfect storm of peak results (of the 15 BEV models in the Top 20, 11 had record scores, and 3 did Year Best results), but the main reason for this historic result is the exceptional performance of the Tesla Model 3, that delivered 12,053 units in December alone, which is not only the midsizer best result outside its domestic market, but also a new monthly all-time best for the Dutch market, all models included.

Needless to say, the Model 3 was by far December's best selling nameplate in the overall market, but what is truly amazing, is that last month, the top 6 best selling models were all BEV! How long will it take for the yearly ranking to look like this?

Besides the aforementioned Tesla Model 3 win, in December the runner-up spot went to the Audi e-Tron, with 3,054 units, where the recently launched "50" version represented the majority of sales, the Nissan Leaf reached the last place of the podium, with 1,075 units, while its French cousin, the heavily revised Renault Zoe, ended the month in 4th, with 1,020 units.    

Finally, SAIC's MG ZS EV jumped to 5th in December, with 967 registrations, by far the best result ever by a Chinese plugin outside their home market, and after a three-digit performance in the UK in November, the MG model is the first Chinese EV to be delivered in significant amounts in mainland Europe. A sign of things to come?

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	12.053
2	Audi e-Tron	3.054
3	Nissan Leaf	1.075
4	Renault Zoe	1.020
5	SAIC MG ZS EV	967

Looking at the 2019 ranking, the two major news are the 45%(!) share of the leader Tesla Model 3, not only became the #1 Best Seller among plugins, but also overall, and with a score (29,922) that was the largest annual volume since the 31,641 units of the Opel Astra, way back in 2000. December's Climber of the Month was the Audi e-Tron, that jumped 7 positions, straight into the 3rd spot, removing the Nissan Leaf from the podium and preventing the Japanese hatchback from repeating the previous year Bronze Medal. 

Other last minute changes were the Renault Zoe climbing to #8, repeating its positioning in the 2018 ranking, the MG ZS EV joined the ranking in the last month of the year, ending 2019 in #11, while the Jaguar i-Pace climbed two spots, to #13, while the most expensive Teslas also took the opportunity to climb some positions, with the Model S jumping 3 positions, to #14, and the Model X was up to #16.

These last three models were the highlights of the previous sales peak, that happened a year ago, when expensive BEVs lost a large chunk of company car incentives, now their numbers were a fraction of last year, but still, there are differences, with the i-Pace retaining 22% of last year sales, the Model X got 16% of the 2018 score, while the Model S was the one that fared worse, having just 9% of last year sales...Ouch.  

On the other hand, the Hyundai Kona EV had a great year, jumping from the 11th spot of 2018 straight into Second Place, with 5,526 units, that could have been even more, had Hyundai managed to get more batteries...Better luck in 2020?

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV repeated last year Best Selling PHEV, but this time with a respectable 1,849 units, almost tripling last year result, an impressive performance, considering that it doesn't have significant incentives.  

In fact, despite the lack of incentives, the plugin hybrid category is growing organically, with the 2019 score of 4,931 units being its best year since 2016, when they lost access to incentives, and it wasn't only the Outlander PHEV contributing to this growth, as the #19 BMW 530e grew 53% YoY, the #18 Volvo XC90 PHEV saw its sales jump 163% YoY, to 337 units, its best year since 2016, or the new Volvo S/V60 PHEV registered 462 units, the best result in 4 years for the Swedish midsizer.

So yes, there is a place for plugin hybrids in the market, even without access to incentives. Having said that, expect the BEV rise to continue in 2020, with possibly only the Mitsubishi SUV resisting to the blue wave in the Top 20.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (47%, up 4%) won its 3rd consecutive title, with Hyundai (10%, down 4%) winning the Silver medal and Audi stealing the Bronze Medal in the last minute, overrunning Kia, that dropped to 4th.

Finally, a preview of the 2020 Best Seller race. How will it go? Despite the Tesla Model 3 and Audi e-Tron continuing to be hot sellers, with 45,000€-plus EVs losing part of their fiscal incentives, expect smaller sized BEVs to gain significant ground, like the Renault Zoe or the  BMW i3. Should Hyundai get more batteries this year, the Kona EV could have a shot at keeping its Silver Medal, and the same can be said about Kia and its #5 Niro EV.

With the aging VW e-Golf and Nissan Leaf being unable to improve on their 2019 result, and the Opel Ampera-e expected to be euthanized by PSA during the year, the MG ZS EV and the long list of pure electric models (VW ID.3, Peugeot 208/2008 EV, Opel Corsa EV...)  set to land this year will have lots of vacant places to fill in 2020.  

Overall Ranking

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	29,922
2	VW Polo	12,920
3	Ford Focus	10,478
4	VW Golf	9,263
5	Kia Niro	9,253

You might have read plenty of articles about how the Tesla Model 3 is kicking ass butts in The Netherlands, but to what extent is that showing in the overall market? 

Well, it's not only by far the Best Selling Plugin in the country, but also in the overall market, where the Tesla midsizer more than doubled the result of the #2 VW Polo.

Interestingly, in the Top 5 there are two more electrified models, with the VW Golf (35% BEV) in #4, and the Kia Niro (39% BEV, 1% PHEV, 60% HEV) in #5. Not bad, uh?

Midsize Car Best Sellers

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	29,922
2	BMW 3-Series	5,088
3	Volvo S/V60	4,235
4	Mercedes C-Class	2,858
5	Audi A4	1,819

The Tesla Model 3 is the undisputed leader in the midsize car segment, with the recently electrified BMW 3-Series (4% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) in Second, but far, far, FAR, behind. 

The Volvo twins S/V60 are in 3rd, with 11% of sales belonging to their PHEV versions, which in isolation doesn't sound great, until you see the others...

Outside the podium, we have the unplugged Mercedes C-Class and Audi A4 outside the podium,  and while Mercedes doesn't seem interested in launching their PHEV versions here, that could soon change if the upcoming PHEV midsizers (VW Passat GTE, Skoda Superb PHEV, Peugeot 508 PHEV...) start to gain traction. I wouln't be surprised if sometime in the first half of next year, all of the Top 5 became electrified.

Midsize SUV Best Sellers

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	Mitsubishi Outlander	1,931
2	Volvo XC60	1,697
3	BMW X3	1,104
4	Mercedes GLC	958
5	Jaguar i-Pace	769

This SUV category is being quickly electrified, although we still have two unplugged models, the Mercedes GLC and the BMW X3, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (96% of all Outlander registrations) was the Best Seller of the category, with the electrified Volvo XC60 (30% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) in 2nd, with 1,697 units, and the fully electric Jaguar i-Pace closed the Top 5 with 769 units.

With the BMW X3 PHEV said to land soon, and the VW ID.4x, among others, landing throughout the year, we should see a fully electrified Top 5 sometime next year. 

Full size Car Best Sellers

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	BMW 5-Series	2,422
2	Mercedes E-Class	1,508
3	Volvo S/V90	918
4	Audi A6	880
5	Tesla Model S	526

In the full size car category, as only the fully electric Tesla Model S has a large degree of electrification, while the #1 BMW 5-Series (13% of registrations belong to the PHEV version) and the #3 Volvo S/V90 twins (8%) have a moderate degree of electrification, although it is still better than the Mercedes E-Class, that has less than 1% of electrification rate, or even the Audi A6, that continues 100% unplugged.

The Porsche Taycan  will be a welcome addition to this category...

Full size SUV Best Sellers

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	Audi e-Tron	4,116
2	BMW X5	779
3	Volvo XC90	576
4	Tesla Model X	463
5	Porsche Cayenne	354

The full size SUV category seems to be the most advanced segment when it comes to electrification, not only we have 2 BEV nameplates in the top 5 positions and a fully electrified Top 5, but the #4 Volvo XC90 already has 59% of its registrations coming from its PHEV version.

Add this to the fact that the #5 BMW X5 is ramping up production of its interesting PHEV version, and the electrification rate should only go higher. And don't forget the incoming Mercedes GLE PHEV, with 100 kms electric range and fast charging is also coming soon!

These are surely welcome news in one of the most polluting vehicle segments.

Hungary December 2019

Nissan Leaf Turf

Hungary is one of the hottest plugin markets in Eastern Europe and 2019 was no exception, with this market ending with a record 2.869 registrations, up 46% YoY, translated in a final PEV Share of 1.9%, the highest in the region.

The Nissan Leaf is an undeniable success in Hungary, having been the Best Selling model since 2013(!), which says a lot about the  good work of the local importer, but this year the domination of the Japanese hatchback was less visible, ending the year with only 16% share, having to keep an eye on the #2 VW e-Golf, in order to avoid surprises, as the veteran EV from Volkswagen increased its result by 71% regarding 2018, to 356 units.

The remaining podium position went for BMW, with the i3 recovering the Bronze medal it had lost in 2018 to the VW e-Up!, with 223 units, a significant 57% jump for the hot hatch. 

As for the VW e-Up!, the December performance (34 registrations, Year Best), allowed it to surpass the Hyundai Kona EV and end the year in #4. Is the larger battery of the City EV already making its magic?

Just outside this Top 5, in Sixth, we have the Best Selling PHEV, that this time was the BMW 530e, while overall, plugin hybrids recovered 3% share, to 36%, in what is still a very much BEV-friendly market.

Nissan also won the LCV trophy, with the e-NV200 scoring 54 registrations, the Spanish-made being responsible for 2/3 of the total eLCV market. 

One thing that Nissan failed to retain was the Manufacturers title, with the Japanese maker ending the year in 3rd, with 17% share, behind the #2 Volkswagen (19%) and the new trophy bearer, BMW, that after a close race and thanks to an extended and strong lineup, managed to win the 2019 title, with 20% share.

Belgium December 2019

Tesla Model 3 takes Belgium's Best Seller status

A record 2.148 passenger plug-ins were registered last month in Belgium, tripling(!) last year result, with the 2019 tally growing 32% regarding the previous year.

As consequence of this, the PEV share ended at 3.2% share (6.3% in December), beating the previous high point of 2.7%, achieved in 2017.

In what was once a PHEV-friendly market, pure electrics are turning the tide, with the  BEV/PHEV sales breakdown ending 2019 with a balanced 50/50 share between both technologies, a far cry from the 28% BEV share of 2018, or the 18% of 2017.

The main factor for this change in 2019 was the Tesla Model 3, that took the market by storm, ending the year with a record 2.663 units and 15% share, a strong number in a market known for its fragmentation (in 2018 the BMW 530e won the models title with just 7% share), with the Californian ending the year on strong note, by delivering 457 units, its best score since March. 

This is the second Tesla nameplate to win the Best Seller trophy, as the Model S had already won it in 2014  & '15.

In the runner-up spot we have the Volvo XC60 PHEV, improving on its 2018 result (Bronze Medal, with 903 units), while on the 3rd spot, we have another newcomer, with the local hero Audi e-Tron reaching the Bronze Medal in December, after a record 129 deliveries last month. It seems both Tesla and Audi had enough spare units to cater at the same time the Dutch year-end rush and the neighboring Belgium.

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Speaking of last minute changes, the new BMW X5 PHEV managed to reach a Top 10 spot, thanks to a record 341 units, allowing the German SUV to shot eight positions, to #9, while being at the same time #2 in December. It seems BMW's long range plugin hybrid has presented its application for the 2020 Best Seller trophy...

Other models shining in December were the Renault Zoe, that registered 49 units, its best result since June, so it seems the French hatchback has recovered from the recent skin change and is ready to continue leading the Small EV category, while the Tesla Model X had its best result (95 units) in 33 months, with the SUV ending the year with a 33% YoY increase in deliveries. 

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla won the 2019 title, with 21% share (up 2%), its first since 2014, while BMW (18%, up 1%) ended the year in Second place, thus ending a three year winning streak. Better luck in 2020?

Volvo was 3rd, with 13% share, with Audi ending in a distant 4th place, with 7% share.

In the main sub-categories, the Best Selling plugin hybrid and Best Selling SUV prizes were to the Volvo XC60 PHEV, the BMW 530e won the full size category as a consolation prize from losing this year Best Seller trophy and the Renault Kangoo ZE won another LCV title, doubling sales of the #2 Nissan e-NV200 (208 vs 90).

Looking into 2020, the BEV take over should be continue and the Tesla Model 3 is starting the year as the favorite, but this year Models race shouldn't be a walk in the park for the Tesla, like 2019 was, so who can follow the Californian into the 3.000 units mark?

If the Audi e-Tron doesn't seem to fit for it (2,000 units would already be great), the new BMW X5 PHEV looks to have been made for this market, not only it suits the local tastes (insert Belgian Alps comment), but the long range of its PHEV powertrain allows it to maximize on local incentives for company cars, which should make it a leasing company darling.

Speaking of the all-important leasing companies, there are two models arriving soon that could make an impact, both the Renault Captur PHEV and the Mercedes A250e should also be popular in the leasing segment.

Regarding manufacturers, Tesla will have to defend its title from a rising BMW, while Mercedes and Renault will have a shot at a podium position.

Sweden December 2019

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV wins Models trophy, but Kia wins Manufacturers again

We start the year end wrap up with Sweden, with the local plug-in market up 39% in 2019, with 40.399 units, and the 2019 PEV Share ending at 11%, a significant jump over the 8% of 2018 and the first time the final share goes North of the 10% mark. 

Meanwhile, the mainstream market remained stable in 2019 (+1%), but whenever a plugin market is regularly at over 10%, the mainstream market starts to suffer and decline, as people move away from regular petrol/diesel vehicles, so expect the same to happen in Sweden throughout 2020.

BEVs duplicated their share to 4% in 2019, with the final quarter of the year pulling plugin hybrids to positive numbers, ending the year with 7% share, up 1% regarding the previous year. As such, pure electric models increased their share within plugin sales to 39%.

With the Bonus/Malus tax system penalizing even further the most polluting models in 2020, along with greater availability of new plugins, expect both BEVs and PHEVs to thrive, stealing sales from regular diesel and petrol vehicles.

Speaking of Diesel, the demise of this fuel continues, with only 32% of sales in 2019, a 6% share drop from 2018. At this pace, diesel sales should be dead by 2024...

Looking at December Best Sellers, the VW Passat GTE won the last trophy of the year, its third win in a row, placing it as a/the favorite for the 2020 models title.

Interestingly, there are two Teslas in the Top 5, with the Model 3 in the runner-up spot, with 602 units, while the Model S ended December in 5th, with a record 286 deliveries, an amazing feat, considering it is a model on sale here since 2013, and it has to compete with the younger and cheaper Model 3...Interestingly, the Model X also scored a record result, with 145 units, so one wonders if the Model 3 wouldn't also be able to score a record score here, if Tesla Netherlands wasn't stealing units from other countries...Something to be cleared in the first quarter of 2020.

Volvo also shined last month, placing 3 models in the Top 7, besides the record 362 units of the #4 Volvo S/V60 PHEV, the Swedish car maker also managed to place the S/V90 PHEV twins in #6, with a record 259 units, and the XC90 PHEV yacht in #7, with 241 registrations, also a record score, making 3 record performances in the Volvo lineup.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	VW Passat GTE	702
2	Tesla Model 3	602
3	Mit. Outlander PHEV	430
4	Volvo S/V60 PHEV	362
5	Tesla Model S	286

Looking at the 2019 ranking, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV took profit from the WLTP issues of the VW Passat GTE to break the three times winning streak of the German model and win its first models trophy since 2015, but with the German midsizer back on track, it will be difficult for the Mitsubishi SUV to retain the title in 2020. 

The remaining podium places went for the Tesla Model 3, that was the only model to threaten the Mitsubishi win, but still, the Tesla midsizer won the Silver medal and became the Best Selling BEV in this market, which is not bad for a landing year...Better luck in 2020?

In Third we have the Kia Niro PHEV, that despite a self-inflicted slow year end, still managed to win the Bronze medal.

A few last minute changes happened, the main news being the 4 spots jump of the VW Passat GTE, to #6, while the Tesla Model S reached #10, while Volvo's flagships, the S/V90 PHEV twins and the XC90 PHEV, both jumped two positions each, to #13 and #16, respectively.

The remaining changes in the Top 20 benefited BMW, with the 225xe A. Tourer climbing to #19, while its 330e sibling joined the ranking in #18.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the record 117 registrations of the Hyundai Kona EV, it seems the local Hyundai importer has finally woken up to plugins, while the BMW X5 PHEV scored 108 units, its second record performance in a row, so it seems the Volvo XC90 PHEV will have a strong conpetitor in 2020, in the full size SUV category.

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia (19%, down 4%) repeated the 2018 Best Seller trophy in 2019, while Tesla (14%) ended in the runner-up spot (its first podium spot), after a close race with Volvo, also with 14% share, and Mitsubishi stayed in 4th, with 12% share. 

As this is a final year edition, we highlight a few secondary awards:

Best Selling BEV: Tesla Model 3 - More than doubling the result of the 2018 winner, the Nissan Leaf, the Californian took BEVs to new heights, becoming the first pure electric model to reach a podium position in 4 years;

Best Selling Small PEV: Renault Zoe - The French model kept the Best Seller status among the smaller sized plugins and despite a generation change, it almost doubled the result of its BMW i3 rival, improving by 22% the 2018 score;

Best Selling Full Size PEV: Tesla Model S - This time the Californian managed to beat the local heroes Volvo S/V90 PHEV, and despite its veteranship, it still managed to increase the last year score (877 units) by 54%, to 1.353 units;

Best Selling LCV: Renault Kangoo ZE - The French model won another category title, with 731 units, a big improvement over the 417 units of 2018, but this time the #2 Nissan e-NV200 was just 200 units behind.

Looking at 2020, it promises to be an entertaining year, the 2019 Best Selling PEV will have a hard task to keep the crown, not only the three times winner (2016/17/18) VW Passat GTE is back in full speed, but the Tesla Model 3 will surely build on the current success to go after #1.

Regarding share, with sales expected to grow fast and the mainstream market set to shrink this year, the share will increase significantly, possibly going north of 20% by year end.