Netherlands April 2020

Kia Niro EV #1 in Covid 19 impacted market

With the Netherlands not experiencing a full lockdown, the slowdown hasn't been as devastating as elsewhere, with the overall market dropping just 53%, while the local plugin market this time wasn't able to escape red numbers, dropping 14% YoY in April, to 2,139 plugin registrations, this market's first two digit drop since 2017.

Because the plugin market drop was less disruptive, April's PEV Share was still in firm two digits, at 14% (10% BEV), keeping the 2020 PEV share at 12% (9% BEV), which is still below the 15% of last year, but double the 2018 result (6%), so considering the second half of the year should see a return to the growth fast lane, the Dutch plugin market could still end North of last year result.

Looking at last month Best Sellers, we should bear in mind that these results are influenced by the supply chain logistic challenges that the current pandemic is placing, so the Best Sellers reflect not only demand, but also how well local importers can move (and deliver) metal in the current context. 

With this out of the way, last month we see the Kia Niro EV win its first monthly Best Sellers title of 2020, with 364 deliveries, while the VW e-Golf continues imune to the VW ID.3 shadow, collecting another podium position.

In an off-peak month, the Tesla Model 3 managed a meritable 3rd position, with 191 units, while the Hyundai Kona EV jumped to 4th in April, repeating February's positioning.

But the surprise of the month was no doubt the 5th spot of the Ford Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape), that in just its second full month in the market, crossed into three-digit performances, becoming last month Best Selling PHEV. Pent-up demand, or is Ford finally having a plugin success story in Europe?

Either way, i believe this could be a good opening salvo for the Blue Oval true EV Sales champion in Europe: The Mustang Mach-E.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Kia Niro EV	364
2	VW e-Golf	200
3	Tesla Model 3	191
3	Hyundai Kona EV	180
5	Ford Kuga PHEV	106

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the Kia Niro EV profited from last month good performance to jump two positions, up to the runner-up spot, all while reducing the distance to the leader Tesla Model 3 to just 277 units, and with the Californian probably not benefitting from the usual end-of-quarter peak in June, due to the current Freemont shutdown, the Korean crossover could even end the first half of the year in the lead...

...Only to lose it by Q3, once fresh Model 3 units land.

And the Second Place could also be in danger, if (a big IF) the VW ID.3 market launch follows as expected, as in, with a major bang, the hot Volkswagen will surely go after Silver, and run with the Model 3 for the Monthly trophies.

The remaining ranking action is only visible in the second half of the table, with the #10 Renault Zoe and #11 Nissan Leaf surpassing the BMW X5 PHEV, with the big Bimmer now having the Mini Cooper EV right behind it, so expect the spicy hot hatch to dribble around it like Lionel Speedy Gonzalez Messi and reach #12 in May. (Or not, with the current plant shutdowns, May could see several models running out of inventory...) 

Kia's good moment is also thanks to the new Soul EV, that climbed to #15, thanks to 38 registrations, while the Niro PHEV scored a record performance in May, by delivering 34 units.  

The Audi e-Tron was up to #16, while the Hyundai Ioniq Electric rejoined the ranking, in #17, making 4 Korean models in the table.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the #21 MG ZS EV, just 1 unit away (189 units in 2020) from a table presence, while the #22 Ford Kuga PHEV is also on the tail of the #20 BMW i3, having registered 187 units so far, so expect these two to join the ranking soon.

Finally, the still in ramp-up mode Porsche Taycan registered a record 28 units last month, with the German Sports Sedan picking up enough speed to leave the Tesla Model S behind (89 units for the Porsche in 2020, 53 for the big Tesla), although one wonders if it will have enough pace to secure a Top 20 presence.

Speaking of sports cars, the Polestar 1 debuted last month, with its first 7 units, don't expect much sales coming from this one, although the same can't be said about the brand second album model, the Polestar 2...

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (14%, up 1%) is still the leader, but has only a 54 units advantage over the rising #2 Kia (13%, up 2%), while Volkswagen (11%) is Third.

Outside the podium, we now have Volvo (9%) in 4th, surpassing Opel (9%, down 1%), that is suffering from the end of the Ampera-e fire sale, and the slow ramp-up of the Corsa EV and Grandland X PHEV.

Ireland April 2020

 

18% Share! *

* In Covid-hit market

Due to the pandemic-related lockdown, April registered just 61 plugins, representing a 85% drop, but because the overall market fared even worse (-96%!), last month plugin share reached a record 18% share, pulling (slightly) the 2020 PEV share to 5.5%, above the 4% score of 2019.

Of course, these numbers have more to do with logistic issues than anything else, but still, it is good to see that plugins are resisting the storm (slightly) better than the overall market, a trend that is being replicated in many other markets.

The 2020 title is now a three horse race, with the Nissan Leaf trying to resist the pace of the Tesla Model 3 and Hyundai Kona EV, while on the second half of the table, the #12 BMW X5 PHEV is on the rise, having climbed 5 spots since last January, having surpassed its stablemate BMW i3, that is now in #13, when 12 months ago, it was #6...Is the Mini Cooper EV (#21, with 21 units) stealing its thunder?

Another model underperforming is the Renault Zoe, #16 now, when a year ago it was #5...Allocation issues? Falling demand? Mmmm…

On the other hand, the Audi e-Tron is on the rise, now in #15, when in April of last year, it was #20. Expect Audi's crossover to continue slowly climbing in the table, once the Sportback body lands in the Emerald Island.

Outside the Top 20, besides the aforementioned Mini Cooper EV, a reference also to the Peugeot 208 EV, just 5 units behind the #20 Range Rover PHEV, so we could see soon two more BEVs in the Top 20, which would make 12 fully electric models in total...Fingers crossed!

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the race is tight, with several candidates to the title, with Kia (18%) ahead, followed by Hyundai (16%), Nissan (15%), BMW (14%) and Tesla (14%), making Ireland one of the most interesting plugin markets to follow, as both the Models and Manufacturers titles have several candidates.

Sweden April 2020

BMW X3 PHEV: a future star?

23% share in April, 27% in 2020

We start the month in Sweden, despite de Covid pandemic, local authorities haven't imposed a lockdown, advocating social distancing measures, as a consequence of this, the local plug-in market hasn't suffered as much as others, jumping to 4.270 registrations, and because the overall market fell 38%, April scored a 23% share for plugins (5,5% for BEVs only), sliding the 2020 PEV share down by 1%, to 27% (7,9% BEV). Currently BEVs only represent 29% of plugin sales.

Looking at the remaining fuels, diesel continues to drop, now at 25% share (38% a year ago), so at this pace, diesel sales will be dead by 2023...Petrol market share is also down, from 44% last year, to the current 38%, while plugless hybrids grew from 6% to 9% share.

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the Volvo midsizer twins, the S/V60 PHEV, were last month leaders, with 429 registrations, with the VW Passat GTE following right behind, with 410 units.

With Kia placing two models in the Top 5, the most surprising performance showed up in #5, with the fresh BMW X3 PHEV jumping immediately into the 5th spot, with 176 registrations, allowing it to be just 32 units from joining the 2020 table, so expect the German SUV to join the table soon. 

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Volvo S/V60 PHEV	429
2	VW Passat GTE	410
3	Kia Optima PHEV	254
4	Kia Niro PHEV	243
5	BMW X3 PHEV	176

On the 2020 ranking, it was a slow month, the podium positions remained the same, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV recovered the 4th spot, now making 4 PHEVs in the top positions, and soon it can be 5, as the Kia Niro PHEV is now only 15 units behind the #4 Tesla Model 3.

But BEVs have good news elsewhere, with the Audi e-Tron climbing another position, this time to #8, while the Renault Zoe is now #10, up one spot. 

Also, two of the three newcomers of the month were BEVs, with the Hyundai Kona EV and Tesla Model S rejoining the table, while the new plugin hybrid in the table is the Kia Ceed PHEV, that jumped to #18, thanks to a record 140 registrations, taking advantage of its unique positioning in the market, as it is the only plugin compact station wagon, a hot commodity in a station wagon-friendly market.

Outside the Top 20, besides the aforementioned BMW X3 PHEV, its smaller sibling, the X1 PHEV, is also making itself noticed, with 55 units, while Ford(!) has a strong candidate to a Top 20 spot, with its Kuga PHEV, with the compact SUV registering 97 units last month.

Finally, a reference to the record 62 deliveries of the VW e-Up!, after all these years, the old formula continues true: > battery = > sales.   

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia (20% share, up 2%) is back in the leadership, displacing Volvo (19%, down 2%) from the throne, while Volkswagen (12%, down 2%) closes the podium, comfortably ahead of Tesla (8%).

2020 Q1 Sales by OEM

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 19% share (Up 2% regarding 2019), followed by the rising Volkswagen Group (13%, up 7%), that jumped from 6th to 2nd, not a bad start for their Year Zero Plan to Rule the EV World, and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that kept its 3rd spot, while increasing its share by 3%, from 8% last year, to the current 11%. 

The #4 BMW Group also increased share, by 1%, to 8% share, climbing one position regarding 2019, while the #5 Hyundai-Kia did even better, jumping three positions, from #8 to #5, all while increasing its share by 2%, to 8%

What catches our eyes in this Top 5 is the absence of Chinese OEMs, last year we had two (BYD and BAIC), now there's none, this is due the early effects of the Corona pandemic in China, expect these OEMs to rebound in a big way in Q2, as this market should be the only unaffected by the pandemic, with Tesla also beneffiting from it, now that they have a strong presence there.

BEV

Looking only at BEVs, Tesla expanded its lead, increasing its market share by 6% and more than doubling the result of #2 Renault Nissan Alliance, which has also saw its share inflate by 5%, allowing it to jump from #4 to the runner-up spot, but the Volkswagen Group is getting closer, having jumped from 6th to 3rd, and earning 6% share, to 11%, equaling Tesla in market share growth.

Hyundai-Kia is also on the rise, jumping from #7 to #4, increasing its share by 3%, running ahead of last year's Bronze Medalist BYD, that is now #5, with 6% share, down 3%.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, while comparing with last year Top 5, the Chinese BAIC and SAIC are left out, but expect both to rebound soon, as both should increase their sales (and shares) significatly in the second quarter, while most OEMs outside China will have a hard time, due to the current pandemic.