China March 2020

Tesla Model 3 shines in transition month

With the Chinese market slowly returning to normal, now that China has endured the first wave of the COVID pandemic, sales started to recover from February’s fall into the abyss, by dropping just 51%, to close to 60,000 units, a significant improvement from the 65% fall of the previous month.

It is expected that this recovery will develop in the coming months, with the second half of the year probably seeing positive months, and maybe by the end of 2020, we could see this market back in black.

As a consequence of these events, the March PEV share was 5.7% (4.8% BEV), pulling the 2020 share to 4.2% (3.3% BEV), a step below from the 5.5% of 2019, but this is still the first month of the AC (After Corona) era, so we expect this number to grow throughout the year.

One positive sign is that BEVs are resisting better, with all-electric models dropping 49% vs 58% for PHEVs, leading BEVs to have 84% of plugin sales last month, in line with the 86% of last December, and pulling its 2020 share to 79%, so the “Go BEV, or Go Home” mantra continues.

Looking at March Best Sellers, the production ramp up is visible, with the 5-digit performance of the Tesla Model 3 leading the surge, but the remaining Top 5 models have also seen Personal or Year Best performances last month.

Here’s March Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit 11,280 units (including imports), winning its third monthly Best Sellers title in a row, winning its first 5-digit performance in China. While the absolute record is still far - 21,963 units - BAIC’s December record could become in danger by the sporty silhouette of the Model 3 sometime this year.

#2 – BYD Qin Pro EV

The maker’s reply to the GAC Aion S and BAIC EU-Series has repeated February’s 2^nd place last month, thanks to 5,271 units, a new record for the fully electric sedan, so it seems BYD is betting in it to ramp up and stay among the Best Sellers, if production capacity is not a problem, demand might be, after all, the GAC Aion S is cheaper AND has better specs (59 kWh battery and 510 NEDC electric range for the Aion, 53kWh and 421 kms for the Qin).

#3 – BAIC EU-Series

Beijing Auto’s star sedan and last year’s Best Selling EV in China, is starting to flex its muscles, having reached 4,450 units last month, a new year best, ramping up its new R600 (60 kWh battery, 460 kms NEDC electric range) version, in order to stay relevant in the race for best-selling EV.

#4 – GAC Aion S

GAC’s sleek sedan this time was left out of the podium, having registered 2,957 units, a new year best, but that nevertheless was insufficient to win a medal, as local Big Boys (BYD and BAIC) have started to ramp up production more swiftly. One of the most competitive domestic EV’s on the market, the Aion S is sure to continue a regular in this Top 5, growing with the remaining market.

#5 – SAIC MG eZS EV

The production of the compact crossover has been ramping up, and although its career in its domestic market has been discreet so far, with the random Top 5 presence, overseas it is a whole different story, being by far the Best Selling Chinese EV in foreign markets, providing relevant volumes in a number of European markets, but also leading the EV Revolution in a number of countries, like Israel, India, Chile or Thailand. But back to China, last month it reached a Year Best 2,531 units, allowing it to achieve its first monthly Top 5 spot in 2020. While the MG model has a middle of the road specs (45 kWh battery, 262 kms / 163 mi WLTP range, 110 kW motor), it compensates with a spacious and well apointed interior. On a final note, the secret of the success of the Sino-British EV in export markets, regarding other Chinese OEM efforts, is that it benefits from a (somewhat) familiar brand (MG), that is associated to British-ness, even if in practice the Anglo-Saxon genes of the eZS are minimal, but above all, it sits in a relatively untapped end of the market (electric compact crossovers), that in the overall market is growing fast globally.   

Li Xiang ONE

Looking at the 2020 ranking, there were some significant changes, if the Tesla Model 3 cemented its leadership, below it we have two new podium bearers, with the both the BYD Qin Pro EV and BAIC EU-Series jumping 3 positions to Second and Third place, respectively.

The local EV Startups are starting to get a hold on the market, with the Hozon Neta N01 joining the table, in #19, being the 4^th startup model in this Top 20, after the #9 NIO ES6, #11 Li Xiang One and #13 Weltmeister EX5. And the XPeng G3 is not far from the Top 20 too…

Just outside the table also we have the #21 BYD Song Pro EV, that scored a record 1,003 units last month, and is now only 31 units behind its stablemate #20 BYD Tang PHEV. And the good news for the Shenzhen maker didn’t ended there, as BYD also saw its small Crossover Yuan EV climb 4 positions, to #8, thanks to 2,009 units, its best result in 7 months, while the e2 hatchback (1,215 units, year best) climbed to #15, helping the Shenzhen maker to keep its leading position on the market.

Finally, the MG eZS EV jumped to #6, becoming the highest standing SAIC, surpassing the Roewe Ei5 station wagon.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the current disruption is being felt, if BYD (17%, up 2%) is keeping the leadership, below it there are seismic changes, with Tesla (14%, up 5%) jumping to the runner up spot, while SAIC (12%, down 2%) dropped to 3rd, with GAC and BAIC outside the podium, both with 8% share.

Another sign of the current disruption is that Geely, the #4 brand in 2019 and the largest Chinese maker in the overall market, this year has dropped sharply, having just 3% share, suffering from the PHEV fall from grace (10 out of its 12 plugin models are PHEV), while its Geometry A, set to be Geely’s take on the Tesla Model 3 recipe, is languishing in anonymity, more than 600 units below the Top 20 and selling 6 times less than the GAC Aion S.  

Hell, even the startup NIO is outselling Geely plugins…

Israel March 2020 (Draft)

5,8% share!

After a long sleep, the Israeli plugin market woke up last year, reaching 1.5% share, and this year things got even better, with the 2020 PEV share reaching 2,1%, mostly thanks to the outlandish result of March, not only the plugin market reached a record 1.070 units, but it did so in a month where the overall market crashed 36%, due to the COVID pandemic lockdown measures. Now, imagine where it could have gone, if it had been a normal month...

Another positive sign is the fact that this once PHEV-friendly market (the Top 5 in 2018 was 100% PHEV) is getting blue-ish as time goes by, with the BEV share growing from just 7% in 2018, to the current 46%.   

One of the main contributers for the 5.8% share of March was the Audi e-Tron, winning its first Best Seller of the Month trophy this year, thanks to a record 186 registrations, allowing it to jump into the 3rd position.

The current leader is still the surprising MG eZS EV, proving that its formula "lots of car crossover for not a lot of money" is working in markets that are usually far from the spotlight.

But then again, with these kinds of market share (5,8% in March & 2,1% in 2020), the Big Boys are starting to take notice, as proven by the announced Tesla introduction in the country.

the MG crossover is followed by last year leader, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, while outside the podium, the Hyundai Ioniq Electric also makes an appearance, making a majority of BEVs in this Top 5, something unseen since 2014, when a certain Renault Fluence was that year Best Seller...

Germany March 2020

Record month

Despite the Covid-related lockdown in the second half of the month, the German plugin market score signaled another record performance in March, its third in a row(!), having registered 19,145 units, and with the overall market dropping 38% YoY, last month plugin share reached a record 8.9% (4.8% BEV), pulling the yearly tally to an amazing 7.3% (3.7% BEV), and to think in the end of 2019, i was forecasting 6% share for 2020...

March had a (not so) surprising leader, with the Tesla Model 3 winning its first Monthly Best Seller title since last September, thanks to 2,034 deliveries, its best performance in a year, while Volkswagen continues milking its e-Golf hatchback to the last drop, thanks to generous discounts, the German EV was #2, with 1,524 units, its third(!) record performance in a row, so it seems the veteran model is set to end its career on a high note.

But the Volkswagen didn't stopped there, with the Passat GTE ending the month in 4th, with 872 units, its best score ever.

Another surprise was the Audi e-Tron showing up in #5, thanks to a record 721 units.

So, 3 models out of 5 for the Volkswagen Group, with three record performances to boot. And the #6 (Audi A3 PHEV) and #7 (VW e-Up!) spots went also to VAG models. 

How do you say "Counter-Strike" in German?

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	2,034
2	VW e-Golf	1,524
3	Renault Zoe	945
4	VW Passat GTE	872
5	Audi e-Tron	721

Regarding the 2020 table, the two front runners switched positions, with the VW e-Golf rising to #1, while the Tesla Model 3 jumped from #12 to 3rd, but it is still over a thousand units behind the top two, so it will be hard for it to recover ground, although being Tesla, you never know...

With the evergreen VW e-Golf seeing its career being extended almost until the end of the year, and the expected general slowdown in the coming months, the 2020 race should be a four horse race, with the VW e-Golf hoping to keep demand/momentum until the end of the year, the Renault Zoe betting in consistent performances to win the title "à la Alain Prost", the "Ayrton Senna" Tesla Model 3 hopes to pull some surprising performances to stun the competition, while a certain "young Schumacher" VW ID.3 expects to overcome mechanical software problems and recover enough positions to win the 2020 title in the last stages of the championship year.

Well, the production ramp up of the ID.3 is indeed happening, as the much antecipated hatchback crossed north of the monthly 100 registrations in March.

For now, the Volkswagen Group doesn't need it to grow, as the remaining lineup is running strong, besides the aforementioned three record performances (VW e-Golf, VW Passat GTE and Audi e-Tron), the Audi A3 PHEV did a Rudi Völler and found a second youth in the last stages of its career, despite the wrinkles and grey hair, the premium hatchback scored a record result last month, with 687 units, six years after it landed.

If the Volkswagen Group can do all this with a bunch of oldtimers (e-Golf, A3 PHEV, e-Up!), imagine what they will do with new, competitive models!

But the Volkswagen Group didn't have the exclusive of good performances in his Top 20, with the Smart Fortwo EV returning to the table, in #16, thanks to 501 registrations, a new year best.

Outside the Top 20, there's plenty to talk about, like the BMW X3 PHEV (256 units) and X1 PHEV (102) ramping up production, the new Opel Corsa registering 622 units, a strong first sales month for the Opel hatchback, so we should see it here soon, while Volvo continues to increase its electrification efforts, with its S/60 PHEV twins scoring 407 units, their second record performance in a row, and the XC40 compact SUV also scoring a best ever 184 units result.

The Mercedes A250e is another model to be seen soon on the Top 20,  with the compact model registering 421 units last month, while the Mini Cooper EV registered 326 units in March, confirming its popularity across Europe. 

In the brands ranking, the Volkswagen Group has a 1-2 lead, with Volkswagen (17%, up 1%) leading the way, while Audi (10%, down 1%) is in Second Place, followed by the #3 BMW (10%), while the #4 Mercedes (9%), is getting ready to run go after the medals positions.

Midsize Car Best Sellers

Pl	Model	2020 Sales
1	VW Passat	16,244
2	BMW 3-Series	13,155
3	Audi A4	11,785
4	Mercedes C-Class	10,331
5 ... 8	Skoda Superb ... Tesla Model 3	4,233 ... 2,901

Looking at the 2020 sales, we have four models with a significant degree of electrification, with the leader VW Passat having 14% of its sales coming from the GTE version, while the #4 Mercedes C-Class has 16% of sales coming from its PHEV versions, and the #2 BMW 3-Series, 10% share. 

But the champion of electrification is the #5 Skoda Superb, with 24% share.

Which leaves the Audi A4 as the only unplugged model. 

Midsize SUV Best Sellers

Pl	Model	2020 Sales
1	Mercedes GLC	9,161
2	BMW X3	5,446
3	Audi Q5	4,885
4	Volvo XC60	3,834
5	Mitsubishi Outlander	3,105

We have a fully electrified Top 5, although these models have various degrees of electrification, from the 3% PHEV share of the Mercedes GLC, to the 73% of the Mitsubishi Outlander, passing by the 8% of the BMW X3, 14% of the Volvo XC60 and the 25% of the Audi Q5.

Anyway, 5 electrified models out of 5 is already something, and with the Mercedes GLC PHEV and BMW X3 in ramp up mode, things will look even better in a few months.

Full Size Car Best Sellers

Pl	Model	2020 Sales
1	Mercedes E-Class	8,605
2	Audi A6	7,896
3	BMW 5-Series	7,381
4	Volvo S/V90	950
5	BMW 7-Series	783

With the exception of the #2 Audi A6, that still has its PHEV in demonstration mode, all other models have volume deliveries of their PHEV versions, with the #1 Mercedes E-Class hitting a significant 22% share, while the #3 BMW 5-Series reached 12%, and the #4 Volvo S/V90 twins had 20%.

With the Audi A6 PHEV said to ramp up production in the coming months, expect this Top 5 to be fully electrified soon.

Finally, the flagship BMW 7-Series had 24% of its sales coming from its PHEV version, while the Porsche Taycan is some 200 units below it, so we should see Porsche's sports sedan here sometime in the future, as the maker ramps up production.

Full Size SUV Best Sellers

Pl	Model	2020 Sales
1	Mercedes GLE	3,462
2	BMW X5	2,811
3	VW Touareg	2,310
4	Audi e-Tron	1,884
5	Audi Q7	1,860

Unlike other categories, the full size SUV isn't on the forefront of electrification, with two models still very much ICE only, as the leader Mercedes GLE had just 1% of its sales coming from the PHEV version (for some reason Mercedes Germany is not betting in the 350de version), while the #3 VW Touareg (1% PHEV sales) just now presented officially its plugin hybrid version.

The #5 Audi Q7 has also a low PHEV share, with just 8%, while the BMW X5 PHEV is way better, representing 19% of the X5 sales, adding to the full EV #4 Audi e-Tron, as the brightspots of the category.

With the new VW Touareg PHEV and (hopefully) the Mercedes GLE350de ramping up production, it should be a matter of time until this Top 5 becomes fully electrified.