Sunday, January 10, 2016

USA December 2015 (Updated)


Now, where is that Nissan Leaf?





Recovery Edition

For the first time in the US EV market, sales ended above the 13.000 units, with sales up 4% YoY, but it wasn't enough to recover the total figures and paint them black again, for the first time sales have regressed in this market, down 4%, with the EV Share down from 0.73% to 0.66%, a small tumble that is explained by the aforementioned small sales decrease in a midst of an all-time record in the US auto market.

Tesla has delivered another positive month, around 3.600 units (Personal best), divided between the Model S (3.350 deliveries) and the new Model X (199), finally being delivered in significant numbers, while the Chevrolet Volt has seen another positive result, with 2.114 units, its best result in 16 months.

As for the other usual member of the four-digit club, the Nissan Leaf, the 1.357 units represent a 57% decrease YoY, this time the 30kWh version is available, so it's starting to become difficult this dysmal performances...

Great month for BMW, with stellar performances across the range:

- BMW i3 sold 1.422 units, its second best score ever, but the small Bimmer still has space to grow, for example, the Mini Cooper sold 2.823 units in the same period.

- BMW i8 smashed its previous sales record, by delivering 656 units, beating for the first time the  Porsche 911 (654 units) and Jaguar F-Type (430), thus winning its first Monthly trophy in the six-figure sports car race;

- BMW X5 Plug-In registered 607 units, outselling significantly every other SUV in the ranking, while representing 10% of all X5 sales.

There were a couple of last minute changes, the VW e-Golf (609 units, new record) climbed one position to #8, switching places with the defunct Prius Plug-In, while the Cadillac ELR gave a rare good news to GM, selling 135 units (Year Best) and climbing one position to #16, of notice also the encouraging performances of the Hyundai Sonata Plug-In (145 sales) and Volvo XC90 PHEV (74).

The Audi A3 e-Tron landed with 49 units, a somewhat disappointing start, considering its VW e-Golf started with 119 units in 2014.

In the manufacturers ranking, this year champion was Tesla (21%), succeeding to Nissan and winning its third title, its first in the Modern Era (It had won previously in 2008 and 2009). Ford (18%) repeated the 2014 position, ending in Second Place, followed by Chevrolet (16%) in Third, that relegated in December last year winner Nissan to #4.

In the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have been gaining share since 2012, with 27% then, 49% in the next year, 55% in 2014 and now they ended the year with 61% share, a brilliant recovery, where Tesla has been a major influence, like the weakening sales force of the Chevrolet Volt.

A final reference for the Toyota Mirai, 15 units were sold last month, totaling 72 units this month, let's see how many registrations the Fuel Cell Toyota can achieve in 2016.

Looking into 2016, expect the Model S to stabilize around the 25k, the Model X to deliver some 15k units, while the Leaf might also reach those numbers, the Volt II will probably beat both in the race for Best Seller and BMW will become a force to be reckoned with, as the X5 Plug-in and 330e become widely available. Finally, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV has everything to become a Best Seller, the question will be if the Japanese manufacturer has the means to supply enough units to fulfill the sales potential that the model has in the USA. Total sales forecast for the market: 175k units.

PlUSADec.YTD%
1Tesla Model S e)3.35023.66421
2Nissan Leaf1.34717.26915
3Chevrolet Volt (1)2.11415.39313
4BMW i31.42211.02410
5Ford Fusion Energi1.0589.7508
6Ford C-Max Energi5798.2757
7Fiat 500e2656.1945
8Volkswagen e-Golf6094.2324
9Toyota Prius Plug-In224.1914
10Chevrolet Spark EV1522.6292
11BMW i86562.2652
12
13
14
15
Mercedes B-Class ED
Ford Focus Electric
Smart Fortwo ED
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
97
96
179
137
1.906
1.582
1.387
1.156
2
1
1
1
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Cadillac ELR
Kia Soul EV
BMW X5 40e Plug-In
P. Panamera Plug-In
Tesla Model X
Porsche 918
Hyundai Sonata Plug-In
Mercedes S550e
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV
Honda Accord Plug-In
Bolloré Blue Car
Audi A3 e-Tron
Toyota RAV4 EV
Honda Fit EV
135
96
607
16
199

145
35
9
74
1

49


1.024
1.015
909
407
214
203
160
118
115
86
64
50
49
17
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

TOTAL13.449115.350100

e) Estimate

(1) - First and Second generations combined.


Source: insideevs.com; greencarreports.com; Good Car Bad Car

Tesla vs The Others

As Elon Musk pointed out, the real competition of Tesla aren't other EV's, but the ICE best selling models, so let's look how the Model S stands in its own domestic market (1)



PlModel    2015
1Mercedes E-Class49.736
2BMW 5-Series44.162
3Tesla Model S23.664
4Lexus GS23.117
5Audi A622.850
  
For the whole sales volume of 2015, the Model S managed to reach Third Place, behind the leaders Mercedes E-Class and BMW 5-Series, but ahead of the Lexus GS and Audi A6.

(1) - Unlike markets across the pond, the full-size car market in the US is much more diversified, with Chevy Impalas, Malibu's, Chrysler 300, Dodge Chargers, etc, all theoretical adversaries to the Model S, but Tesla's direct competition isn't there, so the Model S is only compared with cars with similar price and concept.

4 comments:

  1. There is a digit missing in the real competition of tesla table :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Corrected, thanks for the input!

      Delete
  2. Hi, do you have information on xEV sales for Japan 2015??
    Thx Martin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Japan is usually one of the last articles of the year, so it will only come by the 27/28th...

      Delete