Tuesday, January 12, 2016

China December 2015 (3rd Update)

Zotye Zhima E30: A new contender for 2016?

The Mother of All Records 

Another staggering month in the Chinese EV Market, this time around 35.000 units, a four-fold increase YoY, with YTD sales ending at 207.000 units, or a two fold increase...As result, the EV  Share ended at 0.84% a significant jump over the 0.25% of 2014 and the 0.09% of '13!

The ranking is also changing rapidly, with several changes:

* The BYD Tang climbed yet another position, ending in Third, thanks to another record-breaking performance of 5.503 units, the best result ever achieved by a BYD model;

* With the Zotye E20 now officially out of order, the small car dropped significantly in the ranking, down three positions to #11;

* Up three positions to #9 was the BYD e6, a veteran that refuses to be left behind.      

BYD Tang: It's pedal to the metal - Time!

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD won another trophy, with 32% share, followed by the #2 Kandi, with 15%, Zotye (13%) in Third and BAIC (9%, down 1%) in Fourth. 


Below, you will find the 2015 Trophy Room:

Best Selling BEV & Small Car: Kandi Panda EV, 20.390 units. Out of the blue, this year the Panda EV started shattering sales records and even managed to beat the all-mighty BYD models some months, doubling the result achieved last year by the K10 relative, which coincidentally also won these two titles last year;

Best Selling PHEV: BYD Qin, 31.898 units. Repeating the title won last year, with sales up 117% YoY, one would think the Qin would continue to rule the Chinese EV Market, but the second half of the year was terrible for the BYD sedan, with deliveries dropping more than 50%, it seems BYD has become production-constrained and is privileging other models...

Best Selling SUV and Rookie Of The Year: BYD Tang, 18.375 units. The future of BYD in the fight for the Best Seller Title, it managed to sell 18.000 units is seven months, an impressive performance that makes it the current Star of the EV Scene in China;

Looking at the BEV / PHEV share, plug-in hybrids won more 6% share, being now responsible for 34% of the market.

This is one of the hardest markets to predict, but looking from the current trends, the BYD Tang and Kandi Panda EV look like the major players in the market. As for sales predictions, once again, it is difficult to predict how fast such dynamic market will grow, but sales somewhere 300k to 400k will be a safe bet. 

PlChinaDec.  YTD%'14Pl
1BYD Qin1.51231.898151
2
3
4
Kandi Panda EV
BYD Tang
BAIC E-Series EV
4.701
5.503
1.696
20.390
18.375
16.488
10
9
8
8
N/A
5
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Zotye Z100 / Cloud EV
SAIC Roewe 550 PHEV
JAC i EV
Kandi K10 EV e)
Chery eQ
BYD e6
Chery QQ EV
Zotye E20
Zhidou D1 / D2
JMC E100
Tesla Model S e)
BYD Denza
Zotye TT EV
Changan Eado EV
BYD e5
Venucia e30 / Morning Wind
Others
2.582
1.611
1.581
1.000
1.868
2.255
924

2.000
1.143
750
872
1.143
980
783
295

15.467
10.711
10.420
7.665
7.262
7.029
6.885
6.385
6.164
5.268
 4.775
2.888
2.092
1.500
1.426
1.273
23.023
7
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1

N/A
9
10
2
12
7
3
4
N/A
N/A
6
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
11


TOTAL34.925207.382


Sources:   http://auto.sohu.com/20160110/n434071214.shtml; http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20160120/1305184260.html


17 comments:

  1. Hi Jose:

    I make that 61,616 BYD cars for 2015, just beating the CEOs 60k target.

    Many thanks for the fine information.

    Any chance of an end of year summary for China by manufacturer?
    Likely it is in the works.
    It would be handy to have the table.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will be making a global Top 20 Manufacturers ranking by month end, as 8 of them are chinese, i think it will suit your purposes. :-)

      Delete
  2. I think you updated the Zhidou D1 / D2 montly sales, but the YTD might be wrong?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, the error was that the 6k numbers were made during 2015, not in one month.

      Delete
  3. Impresive numbers! China went from cum sales since 2008 of 58,000 units to over 188K. Certainly this year light-duty PEVs will pass the 500K mark! and at this rate China will pass the U.S. in 2016 (in terms of cum sales or PEV stock)

    One question Jose. You are reporting the Denza EV as a BYD vehicle, but the Denza was co-developed by Daimler and BYD, and it looks like a Mercedes-Benz B-series. Should it be reported as a Daimler vehicles instead?

    http://www.caranddriver.com/news/denza-ev-photos-and-info-daimler-and-byds-electric-love-child-news

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I used Denza as part of BYD lineup until now, but from 2016 on, they will be a separate entity, a sort of upscale brand within the BYD Group, just like Infinity is to Nissan.

      The fact that Mercedes shares platform with BYD for the Denza doesn't mean they should be considered part of Daimler, as most of the technology (Drivetrains, batteries, etc) comes from BYD.

      In a way, it's a bit like Mercedes sharing platforms with Infinity for the Q30 model.

      Delete
    2. It's Infiniti, not Infinity!!!

      Delete
  4. China has already overtaken US in Electric + Plugin vehicle sales.
    China sold in
    2011 - 8,159
    2012 - 12,791
    2013 - 17,642
    2014 - 74,763
    Total at end of 2014 - 113,355

    2015 - 188,726
    That's a total of 302,081 for just the private vehicles like Cars, Vans, SUVs.
    But China also sold lot of Electric Buses, Trucks and Commercial Vans.

    Totally in 2015, they sold 331,092 units. If you subtract the 188,726 from this 331,092, it comes to 142,366 public vehicles

    Add it to the total of 302,081 units and it goes to 444,447 units.

    USA had 291,332 units at the end of 2014. In 2015, 115,155 units were sold. That a cumulative total of 406,487 units.

    Besides China also has lot of low speed electric vehicles using lead battery and last year 400,000 of these vehicles were sold.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#cite_note-Outlook2015-37

    http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/auto/Chinas-vehicle-sales-overtake-expectations-to-expand-47/shdaily.shtml

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2015/04/08/chinas-other-electric-vehicle-industry/#2715e4857a0b405b432a2f9b

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Check your sources, but I think the figures you used from 2011 to 2014 already include buses and plug in commercial trucks, so you might be doing double counting.

      Delete
    2. If so, the total for 2015 is 331,092, for cum NEVs since 2011 (passenger + commercial including buses) of 444,447!

      Delete
  5. Is there an error in total sales YTD?

    ReplyDelete
  6. The YTD seems to be 182,759. Want double check since the European market then leads with approximately 188,000 unit sales.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is only a Top 20, there are more models in the market, all together make the 188.726 units.

      Regarding Europe, my guess is that it will surpass the 190.000 units...

      Delete
    2. According to ACEA, just pax PEVs totaled 186,170
      http://www.acea.be/uploads/press_releases_files/AFV_registrations_Q4_2015_FINAL.PDF

      Add 4,238 Kamgp ZEs and 3,049 Nissan e-NV200 (7,287 vans), the European total is 193,457 (including about a dozen FCHVs accounted by ACEA)

      Delete
  7. Beijing, January 13 / Xinhua / - In 2015, China had produced about 340 thousand. Cars powered by new energy, which is 4.3 times more than in the previous year. At the same time it was sold 330 thousand. Such vehicles / growth of 4.4 times /. According to the forecasts of the Association of the automotive industry in China, car sales on new sources of energy at the end of this year will reach 700 thousand. Units.

    According to the association, the number of electric vehicles produced and sold in the past year in the country amounted to 254 thousand. And 247 thousand. Units with an increase of 5.2 and 5.5 times, respectively. At the same time, in China was released 85.8 thousand. Hybrid car / increase of 2.9 times / and sold 836 thousand. Such machines / pro-growth 2.8 times /

    ReplyDelete
  8. Jose, this report might help to check some figures:

    http://chinaautoweb.com/2016/01/sales-ranking-of-china-made-pure-electric-cars-in-2015/

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Jose.
    The official CAAM data (which vlasv comment above reports for total NEVs) detail also passenger car (NEV) sales. So:

    - Total NEVs: 331,092 of which
    - Passenger cars: 207,382
    - Commercial vehicles: 123,710

    Does it mean your yearly total should be 207,382 (or maybe 207,382 + 4,775 (Model S estimate), if they only consider China-made NEVs (though they don't mention anything about it)), or are they considering a different category of vehicles?

    In case you have/want to increase your yearly total and also the monthly figures for the last months (to justify it), it's maybe useful to know that the official figure for November-December total NEV sales is 159,947 (obtained deducting from the yearly total (331,092) the October YTD figure (171,145) (see link below).
    My guess is that those approximately 160,000 were about half passenger cars and half commercial vehicles.
    And, considering passenger cars, my guess is: about 35,000 in November and about 45,000 in December.
    Supposing those figures include Model S, in order to match the yearly total of 207,382 passenger cars, a possibility would be to change the last three months totals as follows (based on your September YTD figure of 99,748):
    - October: 27,634
    - November: 35,000
    - December: 45,000

    If you think Model S sales should be added to that, than your estimated 4,775 figure should be added to the yearly total (that becomes 212,157), and also spread across the last three months.
    For example:
    - October: 28,409
    - November: 37,000
    - December: 47,000
    (That doesn't amount to put all Model S sales in the last months, anyway...)

    Hope you don't mind my having some fun...:-)
    Hope it's useful...

    Ciao

    YERLY TOTALS:
    http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20160120/1305184260.html

    OCTOBER YTD FIGURE:
    http://www.caam.org.cn/AutomotivesStatistics/20151117/1305178647.html

    ReplyDelete