Friday, August 31, 2018

Global Top 20 - July 2018

Image result for BAIC EC3
The new BAIC EC-Series (261 kms NEDC range), aka EC3, can't come soon enough


Models: Tesla Model 3 Flood

Registrations grew 62% in July, to some 145,000 units, the fourth best month ever, so the current record (174,000 units, in December '17) is still holding on, but will it resist much longer? Do i hear a new record by September?...

The positive first half of the year is placing the 2018 numbers at some 906,000 units (+68% YoY), with the global PEV share now standing at a record 1.7% share, which makes realistic the prospect that this year we will hit two million units (and over 2% share).  

July was the month that Tesla opened the gates for the Model 3 deliveries, with a record 14,600 units being delivered to customers, becoming the Best Selling plug-in in the world for the second month in a row, and expect it to continue the Best Seller in the following months, at least until the currently eclipsed BAIC EC-Series, starts to deliver in volume its new, subsidy-compliant, version (the EC3). 

Bring the popcorn in Q4, as  we should see an entertaining race between these two in the race for the October/November/December titles...

Regarding the 2018 title, we can already envision what will happen, the new #2 Model 3 should jump ahead of the current leader Nissan Leaf by August/September, with the EC-Series stealing the Silver medal from the Japanese hatchback by November/December. 

As for the remaining YTD ranking, we see the #10 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV climb one position, while the BMW i3, a familiar face in previous years on the Top 10, was down to #14, being surpassed by the Roewe Ei6 sedan.

Another famous face, the Chevrolet Bolt, is just #15, but is on a different dynamic, having recovered one position in July. Now all it needs is to climb five more places to repeat last year Tenth Spot…

The BAIC EX-Series is also on the rise, having jumped two positions to #18, and could leap a few more in August, as it is selling more than its direct competitors.  

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics stayed at 63% of the total market, but expect this score to be improved during the year, possibly to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 


Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
Best Selling EV maker in the World


Manufacturers: Tesla jumps to #1 in midst of deliveries flood

July saw Tesla break once again the all-time record, with over 20,000 deliveries in one month, thanks to the Model 3 deliveries flood, allowing the brand to reach the leadership, but it was more merit of the American OEM, than BYD's fault, as the Chinese maker laso broke its all-time record, to over 18,000 units. 

If Tesla is the favorite to win the 2018 manufacturers title, the race should be closer than in the models category, it will all depend if BYD can increase output at the same pace of Tesla, and deliver the new Tang, Qin and Yuan models in large numbers. 

As with Tesla, demand is there, the unknown variant is on production side...

Elsewhere, Roewe is the new Fifth Placed, having surpassed Volkswagen and Nissan in the same month. We now have three Chinese OEMs on the Top 5, and only one legacy OEM (BMW) in it. Talk about disruptive times...
 
On the topic of Chinese automakers, Hawtai was the Climber of the Month, thanks to a record 4,421 registrations, jumping three positions to #16, surpassing Hyunda and Kia at the same time, while Geely rejoined the Top 20, in #18, thanks to a year best performance of 5,869 units delivered. 

A final reference to Chevrolet, up one position to #9, but still far from the #5 position it got last year.



Editor note: Will be on holidays during the next days, but to keep EVS entertaining during my time off, i will leave some interesting posts in the coming weeks, like a PEV Automotive Groups ranking, the LCV ranking in Europe, among other treats...Stay tuned and keep on reading EV Sales!

17 comments:

  1. Thank you for top-20, Jose!

    The most interesting and important race now is manufacturers race indead.

    When will you be back?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Around the 20th. But i will be visiting the blog from time to time, not only to look at comments, but also to publish the most important markets (Norway, etc...)

      Delete
  2. Great work, have a nice holiday!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Tesla Model 3 will easily reach the top if not August for sure the next month. We expect reactions from other manufacturers!

    ReplyDelete
  4. I thought the Leaf was supposed to be doing 9K sales per month?

    Looking over their past few months, they've been bouncing around between 5K and 8K each month.

    Even so - the Leaf has a huge lead. If the Model 3 holds steady at 14K per month and the Leaf at 7K per month, it'll still take until April 2022 for the Model 3 to finally overtake the Leaf as the top selling BEV of all time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do not agree with your prediction.

      The Tesla Model 3 will overtake the Nissan Leaf in Q4 2019 or in Q1 2020.

      The question is when will the 500,000th Nissan Leaf be delivered, and when will the 500,000th Tesla Model 3 be delivered?

      Both milestones will most likely take place in Q4 2019 or in Q1 2020.

      Delete
    2. Tesla is improving month after month. They will of course not stop at 14k per month. Their aim right now is >5k/week which means ~22k per month.

      They are not stopping there, they are working toward 10k/week or about 43k per week. A level they will probably get close to by next summer.

      Delete
  5. What are the 400 Nissan EVs which are not Leafs?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. E-NV200. And soon there might be Nissan Sylphy's on the list.

      Delete
  6. Jose,

    "On September 11, 2018, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced:

    73,000 EV sales
    28,000 PHEV sales

    in August 2018."

    That's a substantial increase.

    Looking forward to see your post with the top 20 in China.

    By the way, have a nice holiday.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  7. Jose,

    Regarding your previous report (China July 2018):

    The total after 7 months was 451,323 Plug-Ins sold in China.

    With an additional 101,000 new Plug-Ins sold in China in August 2018, the total after 8 months would be 542,323 Plug-Ins sold in China.

    And with only 4 months left in 2018, the annual total of 1 million looks to be more and more out of reach. On the other hand, nothing is impossible.

    What do you think is most likely to happen in China in the remaining 4 months of 2018?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sales will continue growing, but the 1 million mark is starting to look difficult to achieve...Let's see how September goes.

      Delete
    2. Jose,

      Regarding: "additional 101,000 new Plug-Ins sold in China in August 2018"

      I forgot to mention that those are wholesale numbers.

      Cheers

      Delete
  8. Jose,

    For the first time in their history BYD has sold more than 20,000 Plug-Ins in China in one single month (August 2018).

    ReplyDelete