Sunday, November 11, 2018

Global Top 5 - Mid Game Bet (Jan.-Oct.)

In October, the BAIC EC-Series will beat the Tesla Model 3 by 2000 units (21.000 vs 19.000)



YTD Top 5



1. Tesla Model 3 - 102k
2. Nissan Leaf - 74k

3. BAIC EC-Series - 68k
4. Tesla Model S - 40k
5. BYD Qin PHEV - 39k

10 comments:

  1. Jose,

    "In October, the BAIC EC-Series will beat the Tesla Model 3 by 2000 units (21.000 vs 19.000)"

    Wow

    That really is amazing.

    If the sales numbers in November and December will be similarly good, then the BAIC EC-Series will be the second Plug-In model with more than 100,000 annual sales in 2018.

    Cheers

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  2. That's quite the jump for the EC-Series! Went from 4K in September (47K YTD) to 21K in October (68K YTD).

    I had estimated that the Tesla Model 3's cumulative numbers would overtake those of the BAIC EC-Series in December, but that was with the expectation that they'd continue at the 4-5K/month rate that they've gone so far this year.

    If 21K/month is the new normal and not just a stepping stone on a dramatic ramp, I don't expect it to be overtaken by the Model 3 until May of next year... that's assuming Tesla manages to start having months where they deliver over 30K Model 3 in Spring...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 4-5k per month? If you look back you see that before June then BAIC EC was updated it had several months with sales around 10k/month. So yeah, 20k/month is higher but it was just a question of time before it would reach this level.

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    2. Some of us thought that BAIC lost momentum to BYD. You know, BYD Yuan is a better car :)

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    3. Yeah, the Yuan is probably better, but the Chinese market is so big that it can have both models in five-digit sales and still not cannibalizing sales of each other.

      I mean, the Beijing metro área alone is enough to absorb the whole production of the EC-Series...

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  3. Wow,
    BAIC EC once more at full tilt. With these numbers BAIC goes for the bronze ahead of Renault group. BYD (>25k October) still having a (small) chance for the gold. The race was never as much fun as this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As BYD was nearly 20k behind Tesla in the end of September they would probably need to deliver 105-110k EVs to beat Tesla wish I have very hard to believe. Only way I see it is that Tesla makes a weak Q4 for some reason.

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  4. Jose,

    It seems that VW wants to introduce up to 30 new Plug-In models to the Chinese market during 2019 and 2020. That's a heck of a lot of new Plug-In models. Not all of them will be produced in China. In the coming months we should hear more details about these plans.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i wonder how many of them will be badge-engineered jobs...

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