Thursday, November 28, 2019

Europe October 2019


Resultado de imagem para porsche cayenne 2020"
Porsche Cayenne Turbo SE Hybrid: One of the reasons for the recent Cayenne resurgence


PHEVs pull up Europe’s plugin market


The European passenger plug-in market registered some 48,000 registrations in October (+46%), and this time it were the plugin hybrids (+75% YoY) to pull the PEV market, while BEVs remained in cruise speed (+26%), leading to an even (51% BEVs / 49% PHEVs vs 65% / 35% YTD) breakdown between both technologies, in October.



With the two EV best sellers (Model 3 and Zoe) expected to have strong results in the two remaining months of the year, the 49% share of PHEVs should remain as the peak point for the hybrid technology in the near future, especially considering the first months of 2020 should witness a strong growth from pure electric models.



With plugin hybrids picking up speed, they compensated a lower BEV share in October, just 2%, with an extra 2% share, so adding PHEVs to the tally, the share climbed to 4%, pulling the 2019 PEV share to a record 3.2% (2.0% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result of 2018.



The big news in October do not show up on the monthly Top 5, but immediately below it, with three PHEVs shining, in #6 (BMW 330e – 2,399 units), #7 (Mercedes E300e/de – 2,193) and #8 (Porsche Cayenne PHEV – 1,914), with all three making record performances. Peak demand, or are these models becoming a force to be reckoned with? Mmmm....



Interestingly, among last month Top 5 Best Sellers, the only performance deserving a mention is coming from the VW e-Golf, that registered 2,908 units, a new year best for the veteran model, proving that if the price is right, success is possible, even for outdated models (wink, wink, Nissan...)





Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:


Resultado de imagem para white Renault Zoe. 


#1 Renault Zoe– The 3,440 deliveries of October allowed it to become last month Best Seller, despite falling deliveries (-15%), due to the current skin change, where some countries (France – 1,939 units) already have volume deliveries of the “new” Zoe, while others (Germany – 452) are still waiting. In the middle of these changes, a mention to Switzerland and Spain, both receiving 152 units each of the electric Renault model.


 Resultado de imagem para white nissan leaf

#2 Nissan Leaf – With the 62 kWh version being delivered in volume, the Japanese model hit 3,028 units last month, marking the return of the Leaf to the runner-up spot, and…That’s it for good news. Because despite the larger battery version help, registrations were down 37% YoY... Auch. Will the Nissan BEV be able to leave this downward spiral? I have some doubts, because unless Nissan cuts prices significantly, the Leaf is starting to look irrelevant and outdated, especially next to a certain VW ID.3 …But back at October performances, the Japanese main markets were the UK (700 units), Norway (518), France (363) and the Netherlands (286).

Resultado de imagem para white VW e-Golf

#3 Volkswagen e-Golf– The evergreen German model hit 2,908 units last month, growing 18% YoY, and hitting a new Year Best result, an amazing performance for a model that was supposed to be in sunset-mode…Only, it seems VW is going all in into plugins, discounting and actively promoting its electric model, even if it isn’t the best EV on the market. Add the name Golf, and this is proving to be enough to generate demand, even with newer and more competitive models on the market. Maybe other OEMs could do the same?...(Yes, Nissan, it’s you). But back at October performances, the Volkswagen EV main markets were three, with Norway (740), Germany (723) and the UK (700), gobbling most of the deliveries. Funny enough, the EV-year-end-rush Netherlands only got 187 units. It seems only Tesla read the Dutch EV fiscal change briefing...



Resultado de imagem para white BMW i3 


#4 BMW i3– The German hatchback was up 17% in October, to 2,679 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales (and possibly making it a future classic), following the EV bubble growth. Looking at individual countries, Germany (861 units), continues to be its larger market, with the following being the UK (400), Norway (317), and France (246), at a sizeable distance.


Resultado de imagem para white outlander PHEV 

#5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – During most of the year, the Japanese SUV looked to be the only plugin hybrid being able to run with the best of the BEVs, ironically, in a moment that PHEVs are having a resurgence, its sales were down 7% YoY, to 2,574 units, only 175 units more than the hot selling BMW 330e. With the 2019 Best Selling PHEV title in the bag, one wonders if the Mitsubishi model will be able to resist to the competition in 2020...Anyway, in October, their biggest markets were Norway (550 units), Germany (514), Sweden (351) and France (267).

 
Resultado de imagem para 2020 bmw 330e wltp range"
BMW 330e: How high can it go?




Looking at the 2019 ranking, if Tesla can already order the 2019 Best Seller party for the Model 3 and Renault can think about finding a place for the silver medal of the Zoe, the 3rd place could still be up for discussion, as the new #4, the Nissan Leaf, has shortened the distance to the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, but with 2 months to go and about 1,710 units to recover, the Japanese hatchback would need some impressive performances to do it, and with the current Nissan management, that seems hard to achieve. This is a case where the coach change left the team playing worse... (“Yeah, i liked the previous coach, the Brazilian-Lebanese-French guy was much better than the current one..” – i hear the Nissan tiffosi comment). But i digress.



Below the front runners, the #10 Volvo XC60 PHEV scored its best result since January, with 1,670 registrations, allowing it to climb two positions, while the BMW 530e was also up, to #12.



Volvo had more good news across the lineup, with the XC90 PHEV climbing to #21, while the S/V60 PHEV twins scored 1,026 units, their best score in 4 years, allowing them to reach #23, so we could see a Swedish treble in the Top 20 soon.



But others did even better, like the Daimler Group, with the Smart Fortwo EV scoring 1,681 units, its best result in 22 months, while on the Mercedes side, the E300e/de twins did a record 2,193 registrations, jumping into the Top 20 in #17, while the C300e/de twins came out of nowhere to 1,062 registrations on October, the best performance for the Mercedes midsizer since December 2016. 



Another model scoring a record performance was the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, with 1,267 units, will the Korean hatchback get enough batteries next year to continue improving its game?



Outside the Top 20, besides the aforementioned good results from several European PHEVs, October brought a second coming of the popular VW Passat GTE, that scored 1,018 units, the revised model best result since the beggining of the new WLTP rules, so expect it to lead a large squad of models willing to challenge the PHEV leadership of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV.



In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (18%, down 4%) is the leader, but has lost ground, while last year winner BMW (14%) remains firm in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (9%), suffering from a short lineup, while Mitsubishi and Hyundai, stay outside the podium, both with 7% share.


37 comments:

  1. It looks increasingly likely that the share of EVs in Europe will cross the 5% threshold in 2020 and maybe 7% in 2021. The EU CO2 emission standards are pushing the industry (kicking and screaming) to electrification. Economies of scale and the resulting fall in prices will do the rest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With the new emission rules, and all the new models being introduced because of them, I'd be disappointed if the share doesn't blow way past 5% next year...

      Delete
    2. 7% will be in 2020.my opinion

      Delete
    3. my forecast 2019-547000 3,7%,2020 1100000-1200000 7,3-8,0%

      Delete
  2. Sales of PEVs for Europe:
    2019 - 3,5%
    2020 - 5% (maybe more due to the high variety of new models)
    2021 - 8%
    2022 - 13%
    2023 - 20%
    At that point almost all car producers will stop the production of diesel cars for Europe as the demand will be <10% wit ha negative trend.
    2024 - 30%
    2025 - 42%
    2026 - 60%
    Gasoline cars will also stop making economical sense for producers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting exercise, i happen to broadly agree with these numbers :)

      Delete
  3. Maarten VinkhuyzenNovember 28, 2019

    The Nissan Leaf is still nearly 50% the old 40kWh model in the Netherlands.

    Both Nissan and Renault need a new management. Even half as good as the jailbird would be a huge improvement.


    I hope the rest of Europe is getting some Model 3s too. The numbers going to the Netherlands are just crazy.

    Tesla is reorganizing its delivery center in the Amsterdam harbor. It was nearly empty yesterday, less than a thousand cars waiting for delivery.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm excessively amused at the use of "nearly empty" and "thousand cars" in one sentence ;-)

      Delete
    2. "Even half as good as the jailbird would be a huge improvement" - LOL

      By the way, it looks surreal that only Tesla is profiting big time from the year end rush in the Netherlands, are legacy OEMs sleeping?

      Delete
    3. Maarten VinkhuyzenNovember 29, 2019

      I did talk today with the Dutch director communications for Renault. She was also perplexed by the lack of supply by the competition.

      The 200,000 Zoe was delivered this week to a Dutch customer in the factory in France. The factory manager asked why they were only producing for the Netherlands at the moment.

      Expect climbing sales in December.

      Delete
    4. if there is a subsidy, you can sell at a higher price.not yet visible 20000.https://www.kentekenradar.nl/auto/tesla/model-3/

      Delete
  4. RIP Tesla Model X #nodemand

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They were down to #22, that doesn't mean that there is no demand...Just that competition is doing its job.

      Globally, while the Model S is being slaughtered, with deliveries dropping by half YoY, the Model X is still (slightly) growing.

      So, the story is that Tesla models aren't immune to competition, but despite that, their demand continues strong, growing with the market.

      Delete
    2. Model S mostly has internal competition. There is the Taycan now I guess: but there is only a fairly small overlap in buyers as far as I can tell -- certainly not responsible for the majority of the drop. The Model X holds up better despite having more competition -- at least in theory...

      Delete
    3. they removed one production line.nothing to do with competition.thre is no competition in this market that they produced and sold.besides nissan leaf

      Delete
    4. Interesting info... Any proofs? Why they removed production line of the more profitable model?

      Delete
    5. at the beginning of the year it seemed to them that demand will fall.that was a mistake.in its place partially production line Model Y.proofs in web

      Delete
    6. https://insideevs.com/news/352061/fremont-tesla-model-y-production-model-s-refresh/

      Delete
    7. deficit in all markets Model S and X.is proof

      Delete
    8. Netherlands october Model X 13,Model S 10

      Delete
    9. Norway november Model X 69 Audi e-Tron 539,october X 29 e-Tron 873.dont you think this is strange?

      Delete
    10. Yeah, it's been all but confirmed that the Model S and Model X lines have been merged; and they mentioned on the Q3 earnings call that orders in Q3 exceeded deliveries... I doubt it's anything but a minor temporary bottleneck though: likely with ramping the newly merged line, ramping Raven power train production, and/or some other parts supplies.

      Delete
  5. Jose,

    There will be more than half a million Plug-In EV sales in Europe in 2019.

    Can we call that a milestone, or should we call it half a milestone?

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  6. i think at the end 20 there will not be a single PHEV rin top 20

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's extremely unlikely. While we should see several bestselling new BEV entries, it definitely won't be enough to occupy all 20 top spots. The Outlander for example is still not getting any direct BEV competition before 2021; and all the (mostly) German subsidy PHEVs are just having a comeback.

      Delete
    2. 3,zoe,id3,ionic,soul,kona,niro,e208,e born,opel e,ds3,eqc,e tron,sitigo,mii,up,leaf,i3,xc40,taycan.i like this list.i want to believe that it will be so

      Delete
    3. 20 place 20000 in 20 year.there is hope that all models from the list more than 20000

      Delete
    4. i dont think that at least one phev is sold more than 20000

      Delete
    5. more applicants top20:mini se,polestar 2,tesla Y

      Delete
    6. smart fortwo+ probably missed something

      Delete
    7. renault k-ze,audi sportback,bmv ix3,mg zs,vw cross

      Delete
    8. You forgot the Fiat 500e and the Honda E at least... On the other hand, I don't think all of the models you listed will arrive in 2020 -- and certainly not all of them will get anywhere near 20,000. Many of them might; but I have a hard time believing it will be 20. And also I don't see any reason while the Outlander shouldn't see >30,000 again; while some new/renewed PHEV models could see similar numbers as well...

      Delete
    9. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    10. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    11. I totally agree that PHEVs are a bridge technology that will be forgotten in the future -- but we are not there yet: there is still no real BEV competitor in the segment of the Outlander; and there still aren't *any* BEV wagons... So PHEVs in these segments will keep selling well, at the very least for another year.

      Delete