Models: Chinese models down, Chinese models up
The plugin market crisis has stabilized, with the registrations dropping 26% YoY in November, to some 177.000 units, with the subsidy-related sales drop in China keeping the market down.
This time, both powertrains were down, and almost in the same proportion (-26% BEVs vs -25% PHEVs), but nevertheless, BEVs are still positive in the 2019 numbers (+35%), something that can't be said about PHEVs (-8%).
As a result of these drops, the PEV share in November was 2,2% last month, keeping the 2019 PEV share at 2,2% (1,6% for BEVs alone), maybe December can bring a slight increase in the final number?
Looking at the models ranking, the Tesla Model 3 continues to reign supreme, more than doubling the result of the runner-up, while the #2 BAIC EU-Series has enough distance to keep the silver medal safe throughout December, something that the BYD Yuan can't say, as the #4 Nissan Leaf is getting closer every month.
The first position changes happened at the end of the Top 5, with the tiny Baojun E-Series climbing to #5 and the BMW 530e/Le twins reaching #6, with the German luxury sedan becoming at the same time the Best Selling PHEV, surpassing the two times winner (2014 & '15) Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that is seeing the chance to win its third trophy slip through the fingers.
With a number of Chinese models having seen its sales dry up, there were changes happening as a consequence:
- The Toyota Prius PHEV and Tesla Model X jumped two positions each, to #11 and #12, respectively, with the Californian sports-SUV hitting a year-best off-peak performance (3.392 units) last month, so we could see it go after the Japanese hatchback in December, and maybe even climb another position in the end;
- Both the BYD Tang PHEV and Chery eQ are tied in #11, with the #13 Toyota Prius PHEV only 48 units behind;
- The Geely Emgrand EV was up to #16, and the Great Wall Ora R1 also climbed one position, to #18, but December could see it go down, because...
- The #20 Tesla Model S had its best off-peak performance of the year (2.067 units), so it could have a shot at the reaching the next two places, but the biggest threat is the rising star (5.538 units last month) GAC Aion S, #21 with 23.666 units, that is sure to join the ranking in December, with the question being where will it end: #19? #18? #17?
A final mention for the VW e-Golf, that might end the year in #13, which would be a great score for the German hatchback.
Interestingly, two of the Top 10 models in November (#5 GAC Aion S - 5.538 units & #7 SAIC MG eZS - 3.974 units) belong to models outside the ranking, so expect these two models to be strong candidates for a Top 20 presence next year.
A final mention for the VW e-Golf, that might end the year in #13, which would be a great score for the German hatchback.
Interestingly, two of the Top 10 models in November (#5 GAC Aion S - 5.538 units & #7 SAIC MG eZS - 3.974 units) belong to models outside the ranking, so expect these two models to be strong candidates for a Top 20 presence next year.
Manufacturers: Tesla and GAC shine
This month Tesla pulled out its best off-peak month so far, so expect another record month in December, with the Palo Alto maker ending on a high note.
Thanks to an extended lineup, BMW had a good month, registering close to 15.000 units, a new year best, while SAIC had also a strong month, thanks mainly to the Baojun E-Series and the MG eZS, allowing it to score 15.726 units, a new year best, allowing both makers to go after the #3 BAIC, that is losing charge.
Toyota was up to #10, while Renault also climbed positions, in this case to #13, with the French maker reaching 4.561 deliveries, its best result since June, and with December set to see the Zoe return to regular sales levels and keep the K-ZE expansion continue, expect Renault to reach (near-)record numbers in the last month of the year.
But the real star in November was GAC, scoring a record performance for the second month in a row (6.048 units), allowing it to jump two positions, to #17, and December could see it climb another two spots to #15.
Another Chinese brand with ambitions this year is the #21 Dongfeng (30.293 units in 2019), but the #20 Chevrolet is proving to be a strong adversary, so the 1.377 units that separate both, could be enough to keep the American brand in the Top 20.
Thanks for all your good work through the year Jose.
ReplyDeleteI'm interested in how you estimate total global car sales as indication is they will be down 3-4million for the year after two years of declines. Reason I ask is the PEV share of 2.2% seems light against the 86million?? Of last year?
The final 2019 share should be adjusted in the end of January, early February, as i am doing these numbers based on last year estimates.
DeleteTrue global registrations numbers only become known in the end of each year.
Cannot wait for 2020!
ReplyDeleteIt will be the last year Tesla has a go for the #1 spot, or will Volkswagen claim it already (if PHEV included)?
Expecting a big gain for all brands with strong European focus, pushing down Chinese and American.
Curious to hear your predictions for 2020!
Tesla will *easily* be #1 in both 2020 and 2021.
DeleteGoing by everything announced thus far, VW in 2021 might be able just about to match Tesla's 2020 numbers... And frankly, it's not at all a given that VW will ever surpass Tesla. That depends on a lot of things: including how quickly Tesla expands their product lineup in the future; and especially on how autonomy plays out in the next few years...
I agree that Europe will see the biggest growth next year. However, China should pick up significantly towards the end of next year, if the government sticks with their plan to phase out the last of the direct purchase subsidies after the end of next year... And the US will also see a strong year, with the introduction of the Model Y. In short: 2020 should be pretty great all around :-)
Volkswagen might intend to scale production, and reach Tesla in 2025, but Volkswagen reaching #1 in 2020 or 2021 will not happen.
DeleteTesla production capacity coming on-line in 2020:
Shanghai M3 - 150,000
Fremont MY - 350,000
in 2021
Shanghai MY - 150,000
USA CBRTRK - ?300,000?
Berlin MY - 250,000
For 2020 a contribution of 50% of the new capacity seems reasonable, that is an extra 250,000, for a total of 600,000.
For 2021 only the GF3 MY will add to production, the other two are too late in the year to make a difference. That is still 1,000,000 vehicles produced.
VW hopes to reach 2,000,000 in 2025.
My guess for Tesla 2025 is over 3.5m.
I think 2020 is garanteed for Tesla, without a sweat.
Delete2021 should go for Tesla too, but it will see others getting closer.
From 2022 onwards, it will depend on the Cybertruck success in North America, if it can really make a dent into the pick-up truck market, then Tesla will be really hard to catch, if not, i guess the others will close in the distance every passing year.
So, the trillion dollar question is: Will the Cybertruck be a raging success?
No idea, i am not a XXL pick-up truck guy, and still have no idea why 95% of people that own those giant behemoths in have them, so i am as far out of the target audience as can be.
@Maarten I'm not sure Fremont will have capacity for 350,000 Model Y... Still, I agree with your numbers for 2020 and 2021 :-)
DeleteAs for VW, I think their previous goal was up to 3 million in 2025 across all brands? (Or was that for 2026? Not entirely sure...) That count included 1 million for the VW brand only in 2025 -- but they just increased that goal to 1.5 million for VW brand only in 2025: so I guess the total expectations also got bigger now?... Might actually give Tesla some serious competition for the top spot.
@José while I think the Cybertruck will be reasonably successful, I never expected it to see quite the same numbers as Model 3 and Model Y... So I think it will only play a relatively small role for Tesla keeping the top spot. What should matter more is the introduction of further yet-unannounced mainstream models (especially an affordable compact hatchback) -- or alternatively, autonomy changing the game so much that Model 3 and Model Y will just keep growing demand, without need for more different models...
DeleteBTW, I never was a "truck person" myself either: it always seemed silly to me that certain guys feel more manly when driving an ugly truck, like a farmer or something... And I never felt like much of a "manly man" to begin with. But the Cybertruck changes the game: it's so badass (more like a tank), that even someone like me actually *wants* to drive around in this thing... Pretty much what Zachary described in https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/23/lol-elons-tesla-cybertruck-just-turned-manly-man-trucks-into-princess-wagons/
(An image I can't shake ever since the reveal: imagine a group of people who need to go somewhere together, and the question comes up who brings the car... I'd say, "I'll bring my tank" -- and then when I roll up in the Cybertruck, watch the dropping jaws saying "no shit, he actually brought a tank!" ;-) )
Very encouraging results and 2019 will certainly hit 2.1 million mark which is at least 100,000 more than 2018 despite drastic subsidy cuts in China, and for Tesla & GM in USA. Top-5 is now held by BEVs with only 3 PHEVs being in Top-20 (#6, #7 & #14). Wow, BEVs are gaining bigger chunk with lower battery prices and higher range.
ReplyDeleteTesla Model-3 at 247,011 is ahead of the next 3 combined at 219,952 (89162, 66405, 64385).
This clearly shows there is a scope for them to improve at least in 2020.
Model-3 cumulative sales of 395,000 is 57,000 units below Nissan Leaf cumulative sales of 452,000.
Ideally Nissan should start actively selling Leaf and also introduce a 84 KWh version for 480 km/300 mile range preferably with AWD and classified as Crossover vehicle. After all its height is above 1.5 m / 60 " which qualifies it to be a crossover.
25,878 sales in a non-quarter end month like Nov for Model-3 is very good.
All that automakers have to do is to reduce luxuries and increase the battery capacity that will increase the range. Hope they do this in 2020.
Hopefuls for 2020.
Tesla Model-3
VW ID.3
Ford Escape PHEV (Expected 48 km/30 mile range)
Toyota RAV-4 PHEV (Expected 62 km/39 mile range)
Although the line between hatchbacks and crossovers is increasingly blurring (and rightfully so, one might argue), calling for the Leaf to be a crossover still seems quite a stretch... It's considered a traditional compact hatchback: despite being taller, it really has a pretty similar form factor as the class-defining Golf.
DeleteAs far as I can tell, the major distinguishing factor people use to classify something as a crossover, is the presence a pointless oversized truck-like hood... Take the Bolt as an example: although it has virtually the same for factor as the Kona, hardly anyone would call the Bolt a crossover, simply because the more reasonable hood gives it a very different look...
It should be noted that Nissan's next EV entry will be a crossover -- though a more premium one. (It was originally supposed to be an Infinity, before Nissan killed that brand in Europe...)
Of course the Leaf will migrate to the new dedicated BEV platform in the future, which should enable both a bigger battery and AWD -- much like the ID.3... However, AFAIK that's not supposed to happen before 2021, or maybe even 2022. The current platform on the other hand (originally derived from a combustion model) seems pretty much maxed out.
My friend antrik
DeleteHeight of Leaf is just 1" (25 mm) for Leaf-S and 0.8" (20 mm) for Leaf-SV/SL shorter than Kicks which is considered an CUV.
Leaf is more than 3" (75 mm) taller than a typical hatch which has height of 58".
In fact Mercedes Benz-GLA has a height of just 60" which is shorter than Leaf.
So Leaf better qualifies as CUV.
Somewhere we have to draw the line and that is better at 5' or 60" which translates to 1.5 meters outside USA.
I attached the dimensions with the links from the company website.
https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/crossovers-suvs/kicks/compare-specs.html
EXTERIOR - OVERALL LENGTH (INCHES): 169.1
EXTERIOR - OVERALL WIDTH (INCHES): 69.3
EXTERIOR - OVERALL HEIGHT (INCHES): 62.4
https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/electric-cars/leaf/specs/compare-specs.html#modelName=S,SV,SL
S SV SL
Exterior - Overall length 176.4 176.4 176.4
Exterior - Overall width 70.5 70.5 70.5
Exterior - Overall height 61.4 61.6 61.6
https://www.mbusa.com/en/vehicles/model/gla/suv/gla250w
Overall length: 173.9 in
Overall height: 60.0 in
Overall width: 79.6 in (w/mirrors)
Just wanted to share this news. The worldwide sales of light duty plugin vehicles has crossed 7 million mark; in fact 7.1 million +.
DeleteIf we include heavy duty vehicles like buses & trucks, its well above 8.1 million.
If we include low speed vehicles, then there are 2.4 million in China which takes total past 10.5 million
In India, there are 1.5 million e-rickshaws / e-tuktuks which travels more distance than a typical car and adding this makes 12 million.
Finally China has 10 million e-rickshaws / e-tuktuks and adding this makes 22 million plugin vehicles.
Just celebrate these.
Where did you get the number for heavy duty vehicles? AFAIK China has less than half a million electric buses; while electric trucks are still fairly niche even there? (And outside China, both are almost non-existent...)
DeleteHi Jose,
ReplyDeleteWondering where you get your numbers from? While others like insideev.com seems to have hard times estimating monthly numbers, even only for the US, you still seem to have number for all countries combined?
Hi, the numbers include a lot of digging into public sources, as well as some qualified estimates.
DeleteIf you want to know more, check out our sister website, ev-volumes.com, or send me an email: efeelblog@gmail.com
@José after last month's tie in #11, you forgot to change back the second label to 12... And also, you forgot to drop the corresponding bullet point from the text.
ReplyDeleteFurthermore, the November number for KIA in the brands table is clearly wrong...
Correction: I meant the number for Hyundai is clearly wrong. (Smaller than the number for Kona alone...)
DeleteHi José,
ReplyDeleteAs always the most interesting list of the month. I was a bit surprised with the low numbers for the big Teslas, but after doing my homework, I realized that you calculated over 10k for the first two month of the quarter. Lifting Q4 to near normal levels for these two.
I did expect the Jaguar I-pace with around 20k just in or just out of the top 20. Is my optimism to big, or did they just miss the cut?
The Audi e-tron mystifies me. I did consider it a model, but it starts to look like a sub-brand. How are you treating the different versions / models of the e-tron BEV?
One last thought.
What do you expect is the difference between Europe and China in 2020?
If China does not get its mojo back, it could be around 200k.
The i-Pace should end around 20k, in the case of this SUV, i think because the expected production was limited from the start, they can't lower the prices enough to make it competitive price-wise, which limits demand of this appealing EV.
DeleteI will consider both the 50 and 55 versions of the e-Tron (regular and Sportback) the same model.
China and Europe: Will talk about this during January :)
In 2020, we can count only on Tesla with its GF-3 to increase the sales.
ReplyDeleteChinese trio of BYD, BAIC & SAIC will also launch vehicles with higher range to qualify for rebates and sell more.
All others are wildcard.
VW started production of ID.3 on 2019-11-04, but they will start the sales only in 2020-summer which is more than 6 months later. No idea why would they start so late.
Other wildcards are the plugin versions of Ford-Escape and Toyota-RAV4.
Part of the reason for starting deliveries so late might simply to make sure production goes smoothly before starting deliveries... That's pretty normal actually for legacy makers -- only the delay is longer than usual here.
DeleteHaving said that, the real reason in the case of the ID.3 seems to be that the software isn't finished...
As for wildcards: while it's true that we can't count on specific sales numbers for most of the many many new models coming next year (since we don't know yet how good they really are, and how serious their makers are about selling them), we can definitely count on the *sum* of all these new models to be very significant :-)
You rock ev-sales@blogspot
ReplyDeleteIs there a list of more than top 20 EV models?
ReplyDeleteAre the blue ones BEVs and black ones PHEV? What does the bold and not bold cells mean? For example Nissan is bold, but Leaf is not.
Full data (from the same source) is available on the commercial sister-site ev-volumes.com
DeleteBlue are BEVs, black are PHEVs. (In the manufacturer ranking, blue are brands that only have BEV models, and black are PHEV-only or both.)
Bold means >= 300 km WLTP range for BEVs, and >= 50 for PHEVs. Partially bold usually means the number includes both variants below the threshold as well as above. (Though in the case of the Ioniq Electric, it indicates that the newer model *almost* reaches the 300 km threshold...)
Thanks, Antrik!
Delete