Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Belgium October 2020

 Resultado de imagem para Audi e-Tron belgium



15% share in PHEV-friendly market

This time we start October with Belgium, where plugins are in the fast lane, last month PEV registrations jumped 213% YoY, to 5.688 units, allowing for a 15% share and pulling the 2020 score to 9,1%.

This 9,1% plugin share is well above the 3,2% of last year, although this market returned to its PHEV addiction, as they represented 74% of registrations last month (67% in 2020).

The trends in this market are SUVs (In October, 5 of the Top 6 models were SUVs) and locally-made models, with the local hero Volvo XC40 PHEV winning October's Best Seller status, thanks 503 units, a new record for the Belgian-Swede, winning precious advantage over the previous runner-up, the Tesla Model 3, while the current leader BMW X5 PHEV, can start to think preparing the Best Seller ceremony, considering the large advantage (1.279 units) to the #2 Volvo XC40 PHEV. 

Speaking of BMW, the Bavarian brand had a positive month, as the 330e jumped three spots, to #4, thanks to a record 323 deliveries, most of them being the new Station Wagon body, while the compact SUV X1 PHEV climbed to 7th and its Group cousin, the Mini Countryman PHEV, joined the table, in #18.

Other models shining were the #9 Skoda Superb PHEV, scoring a personal best 153 deliveries, while the #10 Audi Q5 PHEV, thanks to a record 251 deliveries, jumped 3 positions, and finishing the good news on the VW Group, the VW Passat GTE climbed to #14.   

In a PHEV-friendly market, there are only 5 BEVs on this Top 5, and this month new additions were both plugin hybrids, besides the aforementioned Mini Countryman PHEV, the other new model in the table is the much-awaited Mercedes GLE350de and its 31 kWh(!) battery. It seems Mercedes has finally found enough battery cells to start ramping up production of its large plugin yacht, allowing it to record a best ever 390 deliveries, allowing it to jump into #16, but also to almost match the result of its arch-rival, the BMW X5 PHEV.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the Hyundai Kona EV scoring a record 198 units, allowing it to be just 59 units behind the #20 BMW 530e, while there are plenty of models either landing (Citroen C5 Aircross PHEV - 132 units; Toyota RAV4 PHEV - 113), or ramping up production (Audi A6 PHEV - 115 units; Mazda MX-30 - 118; Renault Captur PHEV - 112).

Regarding the much awaited VW ID.3, after a "meh" landing in September (191 units), the German BEV logged 120 deliveries in October, so VW's new baby has failed to make an impact here, but then again, this isn't the most suited market for it, as it is neither an SUV or a PHEV. Better luck for VW with the Golf VIII PHEV and the upcoming ID.4?

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (22%) is the clear leader, followed by Volvo (12%), with Mercedes (8%) being the new Bronze medalist.

The 4th placed is Audi (7%), looking to reach a medal position soon, while in #5 we have Tesla (6%).




23 comments:

  1. What is really striking is just 19 Model 3 sold. October and November are the weak months for Tesla, yet this is extreme. I doubt this has something to do with a shortage of Tesla cars as dealers advertise aggressively Tesla cars in the media.

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    1. What hell are you on about? Tesla don't have dealers, nor do they spend any money on advertising.

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    2. Maarten VinkhuyzenNovember 03, 2020

      Tesla does not have dealers.
      Tesla does not advertise.

      Leasing companies are advertising with leasing a Tesla through them.
      A bit like banks offering a mortgage on a house.
      Example:
      House looking for new occupant.
      1600 Pennsylvania Avenue
      Washington DC.
      Has nice office space and rose-garden.
      Central location in Capital city of USA.
      Contact DoomsDay Payday lenders for best offerings.

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    3. What do you mean extreme? Tesla has literally 0 cars arriving in Europe in October and the first month of any quarter for Europe. The cars they sell in October in Europe will be whatever inventory they have available. If that is low (which it is) then of course October sales will be below 500 for all Europe combined for October. Giga Berlin will solve this issue and Tesla will then Finally have it's 1st local Europe factory starting production in the first half of next year 2021.

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    4. LOL... Tesla "dealers" advertising in the media... Yeah right. Who are you trying to fool with this obvious nonsense?

      Many models won't even be delivered this year when ordering now. How's that for a shortage?

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    5. 5 ships will arrive in Europe in October(record for 2 months in the quarter)There will be crazy sales of T3

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    6. @Vlad most of these will only be arriving in late November and December. So November deliveries will still be mediocre -- only December will tell. Even more so than usually...

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    7. This has to do with a trend that i have been noticing in Tesla since last year, they have starving even more the first two months of the quarter in Europe, in order to present better results in the last month of the quarter.

      That is why lately i have been avoiding commenting on Tesla's behavior during the first two months of each quarter, it's a trap to fool the less aware of Tesla delivery dynamics.

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    8. @José you make it sound as if it was deliberate... When in fact it's just a matter of logistics.

      A weaker than usual first month just means they more successfully delivered everything they had before the end of the previous quarter.

      The second month is somewhat random, as it depends on when the first ships arrive -- even a few days can make a huge difference...

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    9. @antrik: I have no proof of one (being deliberate) or the other (random event), but looking just at the consequences of such behavior, that's what is happening, shorters/Tesla-haters are looking at the drops in the first month of the quarters and say: "Tesla sales are dropping!", only to be screwed in the last month of the quarter, with big Tesla delivery numbers, giving Tesla fanboyz a reason to praise their lord, saying that Tesla sales are going through the roof and preaching once again the narrative that Tesla will rule the automotive world and most, if not all, Legacy OEMs will go bankrupt.

      In reality, as usual, both sides of the fence are wrong:

      1 - Tesla is alive and well, growing at a steady pace, and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. In fact, their product planning is being done in a way that is will continue growing steadily, without big peaks and valleys;

      2 - While Tesla is growing, the EV market is growing even faster, which lately is causing their leading share to drop slightly, with many Legacy and Chinese OEMs growing exponentially, and the leadership position should start to be questioned next year by the VW Group, that despite being just on their Year Zero of their EV plans (the ID.3 has just landed and the ID.4/Enyaq is still a few weeks away from landing), it is already adding more volume to their sales than Tesla itself, so those dreams of ruling the automotive world are on their way to be dismantled.

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    10. @José first of all, please refrain from using loaded language... And especially from using loaded terms only for the fanatics on one side but not on the other, as if they were any better.

      Apart from that, while there is no doubt that the delivery pattern feeds both kinds of lunatics, they idea that Tesla does it on purpose is absurd. Tesla in fact explicitly refused to publish monthly numbers specifically to avoid feeding such nonsensical comparisons.

      As for market dominance: I have no idea where you got the notion that Tesla is growing slower than the market. In fact they are on track to end this year with their highest global market share ever...

      The point that most legacy makers will go bankrupt has very little to do with Tesla's dominance. It's simply an almost inevitable outcome from the precipitous crash in combustion car sales that you and I know is coming, but legacy makers aren't really prepared for. No doubt some of them will be bailed out, especially if they can show healthy EV growth; and they might even remain major players in the future... Unless they become marginalised by the state-backed Chinese upstarts.

      Regarding VW, while their plans are getting more ambitious, they are still not ambitious enough right now to match Tesla.

      Also, calling it "year zero" for VW is arbitrary. After all, they revealed plans back in 2013 to become dominant in EVs by 2018... Sure, they have a new (more realistic) plan now -- but we go by that, we could just as well call it year -1 (or is it -2?) of Tesla's newest plan unveiled at Battery Day...

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  2. Maarten VinkhuyzenNovember 03, 2020

    This is clearly a two-step transition.
    The Belges are discovering the plug now. Encouraged by the incentives.
    Next they will learn that full BEV offer more value for their money.

    Belgium has a large export market for young used cars. These PHEV will be popular in Eastern Europe and Africa in a few years.
    Lease companies will have e a problem with depreciation, unless the carmakers have given a buy-back guaranteed price.

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    1. I don't think it works like that. I don't know about Belgium specifically: but in most markets where PHEV sales are strong, it's because of large incentives that encourage people -- and especially companies -- to buy PHEVs even when they don't ever intend to charge them. Since they never charge them, it doesn't help to "hook" people on EVs either...

      (It might actually do the opposite: since virtually all mainstream PHEVs are severely underpowered in EV mode, people might get the wrong idea that EVs generally provide a poor experience...)

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  3. With so many Teslas being checked-in in Zeebrugge and since Tilburg isn't that far from Belgium, Tesla had better luck if they add ICEs to their vehicles, that way they could be selling thousands of them in Belgium!!

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    1. I can't tell whether this is sarcasm?...

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  4. There are no cars left after the shipments in the third month of the quarter have been delivered. There are no Teslas to deliver until the ships gets in to Europe generally during the later half of the second month of the quarter.

    These numbers are not cars sold. They are cars delivered.

    Once the factory in Berlin is up and running at full speed we will be able to get fairly accurate montly numbers rather than quarterly averages.

    It's not that hard to understand... wait for the november and december numbers too and then divide the sum by three.

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  5. So while growing slower than PHEVs, BEV share still almost tripled over last year, now near 4%... Not too terrible I guess :-)

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    1. Still this is the biggest disappointment of this year.67%-33%
      Darkness

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    2. If you look at PHEV vs. BEV, it's disappointing... But I believe PHEV sales and BEV sales are mostly orthogonal: very few people actively chose between one or the other. So it's generally more useful to look at BEV growth in isolation... Which is actually quite good in this market :-) (Unlike some others...)

      This is why I wish we would get separate tables for BEVs...

      The PHEV dominance is frustrating not because it shows an actual preference for PHEVs, but rather because it shows that due to badly designed incentive schemes, a lot of incentives are squandered on vehicles that in most cases do not actually provide the environmental benefits they promise :-(

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    3. I would exclude PHEVs from all tables

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  6. As many OEMs bring on additional models, it would be great to have a top ten for brands next year.

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