21% share! Open the Plugin Gates!
The German automotive market has opened wide open the flood gates to plugin vehicles, November was yet another record month and this time with a 24% increase over the previous record, set in October. With a little less than 60,000 units, PEVs scored an amazing 21% share (10% BEV) in the overall market, and it were BEVs to drive the market forward, up 553%(!), to 28,965 units, helping plugins as a whole jump an amazing 456% last month, we are witnessing disruptive numbers, that the yearly tally hasn't really absorbed, as it is only at 12% (5.8% BEV), so expect 2021 to be the real witness of the current disruption, with plugin share above 20% for plugins and BEVs hovering above 10%.
And this is happening in a (sort of) stable market (-3% YoY), so this can't be blamed on the Covid pandemic, it's just the market forces working...
Looking at last month Best Sellers, in November the Renault Zoe reigned supreme, beating once again the VW ID.3, that was even relegated to the 3rd spot by the Hyundai Kona EV, that is just going from strength to strength, scoring another record result, now of 2,471 units.
While we expected more from the new Volkswagen hatchback, in its defence, we could say that it has some pretty fierce competition in-house, starting with the new Golf VIII PHEV, that despite having just landed a couple of months ago, it is already #6, with 2,152 deliveries, while the ID.3 predecessor, the e-Golf, seems to be refusing to go into greener pastures, having registered 1,941 units last month, only 498 less than VW's new baby.
So, looking at the bright side, if we count all these 3 models together, we get 6,532 registrations, which is well above the tally of the leader Zoe. In another positive story for the German maker, Volkswagen has placed 5 models in the Best Selling Top 9 of November, 3 of of them (e-Up, Golf PHEV, Passat GTE) with record scores!
Other relevant performances regard the Smart Fortwo EV, that scored a record 2,386 deliveries, highlighting another great month for the Daimler Group, not only the other Smart model, the Forfour EV, had also a record performance (632 units), but Mercedes placed 5 models in last month Top 20, two of them with record scores (GLC300e/de and CLA250e), while below the Top 20, the three-pointed-star maker had 5 other models (B250, GLA250e, EQC, GLE350e/de, EQV) hitting record performances...Now, that what i call a production ramp up!
In such a high volume month, record scores were plenty, with more than half of the models on this Top 20 table having best ever performances, besides the aforementioned, we should highlight the record 1,465 deliveries of the Opel Corsa EV (It looks like Opel, a brand that many had classified as a "has been", in sports terms, has returned to form under PSA, now starting to justify the investiment that the French Group has made in them), the Mazda MX-30 showed up on the Top 20, thanks to a record 1,211 units (a result of true demand or is it a CO2-compliance thing?), while all the BMW's on the table scored record scores, if the 330e and X1 PHEV performances were expected, as the first now profits from the Touring (aka station wagon) body, and the second is a fresh model, the i3 record is a welcome surprise, proving that even veterans are benefiting from the tailwind of the current plugin fever. Hell, even the Nissan Leaf had a record score (503 units)!
Outside this Top 20, we had other relevant performances, like the record 571 units of the Peugeot 208 EV (well, next to the 4,287 of its Zoe arch-rival, it does look kind of lame, but moving on...), .or the 565 deliveries of the Porsche Taycan, while on the other tip of the Volkswagen Group, the SEAT e-Mii EV also had a record 538 registrations, that added to the 592 Skoda Citigo EV and the 1,666 of the VW e-Up, we end up with 2,796 units from the VW Group city triplets, which is a new record for the Bratislava electric siblings in Germany.
Regarding the 2020 table, the podium positions remained the same, if the leader Zoe is now preparing the Best Seller award party, below it, the Silver medal is still up for grabs, as the VW Passat GTE surpassed the Tesla Model 3 and is the new runner-up, but with just 199 units separating both and the expected high tide of the sports sedan in December, the German model will need to step up its game further, if it wants to keep Silver.
The next position change happened in #7, with the Smart Fortwo EV rising one spot, with the tiny two seater now sandwiched between two Mercedes, the #6 A250e compact and the #8 E300e/de full size model.
Speaking of Mercedes, the three-pointed-star maker one model jumping in the table, with the GLC300e/de going up 4 positions, to #12, immediately above its lower riding counterpart, the C300e/de, that was down to #13. A telling tale of the current SUV fever and another indication of the future success of the Tesla Model Y...
But the Climber of the Month was the VW ID.3, that was catapulted to #11, and should land inside the Top 10 next month..
Highlighting the good moment of the VW Group, the Audi Q5 PHEV was up to #10, while on the BMW stable, the 330e climbed one position, to #19.
There were no new faces on the table this time, but it might happen in the last stage of the race, as the both the Audi A6 PHEV and Opel Corsa EV are less than 1,000 units behind the #20 Skoda Superb PHEV, and could theoretically surpass the Czech model, particularly the Opel hatchback, if it continues to ramp up deliveries.
With smaller chances, but able to surprise everyone in the last minute, we have the VW Golf PHEV, that if it continues its steep deliveries ramp up, it might be able to run from behind and secure a Top 20 spot in extremis.
In the brands ranking, the leader Volkswagen (16%, up 2%) gained precious advantage over the dangerous Mercedes (14%), that thanks to a strong ramp up of its lineup, is becoming a formidable opponent. The ID.4 volume deliveries will come right on time for the Wolfsburg brand, in order to keep Mercedes in check...
The #3 Audi (9%, down 1%) is losing charge, while outside the podium, Renault (8%) stays ahead of BMW (7%) and it might even try to get a podium spot in December.
Can you please add a summary for the OEM groups?
ReplyDelete(VW,AUDI,PORSCHE,SEAT,SKODA) =
...
BMW Group: 11%
DeleteDaimler: 19%
VW Group: 31%
Renault-Nissan Alliance: 12%
Hyundai - Kia: 9%
Mazda should hurry up with it's range extender version of MX-30.
ReplyDeleteIt may even overtake Mercedes A250e.
the MX-30 is turning out to be an interesting case, a model that was supposed to be a niche thing is pumping out interesting volumes, of course, Mazda's need to comply with the EU's CO2 rules has a lot to do with the success of this particular model, as it is the only EV in the maker stable, so the brands is pushing sales as much as it can, including deep discounts, in order to pay less CO2-related fines.
DeleteAffordability is King!
ReplyDelete2,796 units of VW's city triplets.
Second to Zoe.
Looks like only ID3 low range version has a chance to beat Zoe.
You mean all variants of ID.3 together have a chance to beat Zoe... Certainly not the low-range variant alone.
DeleteYes, that's what I meant.
DeleteNews of the day is that Apple will enter the EV market by 2024. Tesla has been undoubtly the pioneer in this sector, yet as competition heats up, it will feel also the heat. Hopefully this will lead to more innovation in this market.
ReplyDeleteWhat people really need are affordable cars. There has been too much innovation recently.
DeleteCars especially VW and Tesla have become so difficult to operate, people need an IQ of over 130 to manage.
Innovation means also better ( affordable) technology and not only more technology.
DeleteSo true, and this regards several aspects in life now, a couple of days ago i bought an oven and it seemed i had to take classes in order to work with it...
DeleteA lot of innovation is about lowering costs.
Delete(And frankly, anyone who can operate a smartphone, can also operate a modern car...)
11 year old can operate a Smartphone, whereelse i would not give them my car...
Deletea lot of "Innovation" today is marketing and added technical stuff so the product can be sold more expensive. There is not yet a company that has clean simple and easy repairable technic in mind when thinking about innovation. i hope this will change in the future. No one needs every 3 years a new tv, every 7 years a new car, every 2 years a new mobile. I would gladly pay double the price if i get a guarantee, that my mobile will last 10 years. Product could be made better at so little cost :-(
DeleteYou can buy a Fairphone. And there are similar options in other areas, if you are willing to pay for a more durable product. These generally are niche however, since the truth is that despite many claiming otherwise, in the end most people really prefer the cheap and flashy...
Delete@José it seems you forgot about the e-Golf currently in silver position... While theoretically the Passat, and somewhat more likely the Model 3, might yet beat the e-Golf in the final tally, it certainly won't be easy.
ReplyDeleteBestseller betting 2021
ReplyDeleteVW ID.3 is my guess with short range variant needed for the win.
VW ID.4 strong as well, but too crowded field
Zoe will continue strong, but Fiat 500e and Twingo will present stronger volume competition
What do you guys think?
I would be very surprised if the ID.3 wasn't the winner in 2021, despite the somewhat underwhelming performances so far.
DeletePeople keep saying that the performance is underwhelming but they will probably sell around 40k this year with only 3,5 months available. That's a great start in my opinion and will continue to improve now that the software is complete and people will start seeing them on the road.
DeleteI don't expect the Twingo and 500e to take much sales from Zoe... They are a different class.
DeleteWith PSA's entrants in this class showing somewhat underwhelming results thus far, and no other contenders that I can think of, I'd say the Zoe is pretty safe for the time being...
people expected maybe 20.000 sales in germany alone. the numbers are way below expectations...
Delete@Banner-Kiste given that it's been in production for a year; that they were planning to sell 100,000 this year, and the later revised internal goal was still 70,000: it is indeed a terrible performance.
DeleteI think you guys didn't took into account that there's a pandemic waving through europe and the world and that most countries have more or less strict lockdowns right now. They also seemed to have logistic problems where people had to wait for their already produced cars to be delivered.
DeleteAnyway this month they will probably sell near to 10k in NL, NO and SP alone, so maybe my guess was even too conservative.
Citroën e-c4 has a cool design.
ReplyDeleteWill it be able to eat into the sales of ID3 and ZOE?
Or only cannibalize Stellantis vehicles?
Most likely ID3 will win Germany.
Europe not sure.
The e-C4 is Citroen at its best, focusing in comfort and with a distinctive design, let's hope there's enough sales to consider it a success.
Delete@José
DeleteFully agree with you. As always.
Being built on a pure BEV platform created from scratch, the ID.3 theoretically should have a competitive advantage... Don't know how much difference this will make in practice though, considering that ID.3 doesn't seem to stand out as clearly as expected.
Delete