Models: Small EVs shine in Record month
After a rough start of the year, the second half of 2020 has become a records fest, after a record September, last month brought another record score, with over 400.000 units, and expect December to perform yet another record, maybe above 500,000 registrations.
With plugin registrations going up 133%, the highest monthly growth rate in over 8 years, with both technologies running hot, with BEVs jumping 125%, to 289.000 units, while PHEVs jumped 155%, to a 125.000 units.
This brilliant result has allowed the YTD numbers increase the growth rate to +32% YoY, a step above the 2019 growth rate (+11%), so it looks 2020 will end up as a recovery year for plugins.
With the overall automotive market in the red, added to another record month, the November PEV share jumped to a record 5.9% share (4.1% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 3.8% (2.6% BEV), and with the help of a great December, expect the final 2020 share to end north of 4%, well above the 2.5% of last year.
The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its share on the way, to some 6-7% in 2021, and in 2022...The Disruption Zone, with two-digit scores.
The BEV/PHEV breakdown stayed more or less the same, with the current standing at 68% BEV, 32% PHEV.
The half tide mode Tesla Model 3 won another monthly Best Seller title, with over 39.000 deliveries, its best off-peak score ever, so expect the sports sedan to have a record result in December, while the rising star Wuling Mini EV scored a 33.094 units last month, its 5th record score in a row, with the tiny EV closing in to the leader, and expect the tiny EV to continue ramping up deliveries throughout December.
While the Model Y repeated the monthly Bronze medal, the surprise in this Top 5 is the appearance of the Great Wall Ora Black Cat, with almost 10.000 units, a new record for the City EV, highlighting the current main trend in China, the rise of city EVs.
On the YTD table, the Wuling Mini EV shined once again, removing the Renault Zoe from the runner-up spot, earning it the Silver medal position, while making the tiny EV the strongest non-Tesla candidate for the 2021 Best Seller title, while the #4 Tesla Model Y will have to work hard in December to beat the French hatchback and reach the podium, as the 20.000 units difference seem almost insurmountable, with just one race to go.
Regarding other position changes, the VW Passat PHEV jumped two positions, to #9, followed by the Baojun E-Series, that was also up, to #10.
On the PHEV side, the favorite for the 2020 Selling trophy is the VW Passat PHEV, that thanks to strong results in both China and Europe, was last month Best Selling PHEV, and only a surprising score by the BMW 530e/Le twins in December will change the current chain of events.
On the second half of the table, two more small Chinese EVs are on the rise, with Great Wall's Ora Black Cat jumping three positions, to #14, while the Chery eQ climbed to #18, and in #19 we now have the much antecipated Volkswagen ID.3, that should jump a few more positions in December, possibly ending the year in #15.
Finally, outside the Top 20, one model deserves a mention, with the rising #21 Li Xiang One (4.646 units in November, new record) looking to join the table in the last stage of the race, but for that to happen, it will not only need to recover the 1.300 units of advance that the #20 Peugeot 208 EV, but also keep a close eye on the high tide of the #22 Tesla Model X, which is some 1.200 units behind it and hope that the BYD Han EV (7.482 units in November, 4th record in a row!) doesn't show up on the rearviewmirror on last minutes of the race, as the flagship BYD is doing everything to join the table already in 2020.
Manufacturers: Chinese makers on the rise
The mid-tide mode Tesla managed to win another monthly Best Seller title, but has seen the rising SGMW joint-venture cut the distance, wth the small EV maker scoring an amazing 41.793 score last month, allowing it to climb one position in the ranking, to #5, exchanging positions with Mercedes, but don't think the German maker wasn't pushing the pedal to the metal, as the 24.091 units it did in November represented its 5th record in a row(!), but it's just that SGMW is in a different league, and it should jump a few more spots in December, probably ending the year with the Bronze medal.
Back to Mercedes, of the German Three Marys (Audi, BMW, Mercedes), it looks to be the most dynamic in the present days, and with several models to launch in 2021, just BEVs, it will be the EQA, EQB and EQS, expect it to become a Top 5 member next month.
By the way, in a record month, there were record galore, 10 in this Top 20, to be exact, besides the aforementioned, the most relevants came from Volkswagen (27.756 units), that should have secured the runner-up spot for 2020 (Not bad for a Year Zero, not bad at all...), but also Great Wall, that registered 11.649 units, mostly thanks to their Cat Pack, allowing them to climb two positions, to #16, while Chery (re)joined the table, in #20, thanks to a record 7.927 units.
Highlighting the Chinese brands good moment, SAIC climbed to #11, while GAC was up to #14, with 7.556 units, a new year best for the brand.
Interestingly, despite the recent launch (in some markets) of the RAV4 PHEV model, Toyota had the worst score of this Top 20, being inclusively beaten by niche makers, like Porsche and NIO.
Toyota's potential to thrive in the plugin market is still there, but the window of opportunity is slowly closing down...It kind of reminds those young players that have everything to rise to the top, but then years go by, and they never seem to materialize the promises made in the past...
Looking at the ranking by OEMs, SAIC won in November, with 54.960 registrations, followed by Tesla (54.566 units), while the Volkswagen Group was relegated to 3rd, with little more than 52.000 units.
SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.
If you add Volkswagen, Audi, Skoda, Seat, Porsche, Volkswagen Group would be easily the global leader far ahead of Tesla.
ReplyDeleteNot yet.
DeleteEspecially not in BEVs.
Maybe in 2022. Not because VW sells so many, but because Tesla sells so few.
No it wouldn't? Check your math, the 3 VW AG brands on the table currently has ~296k sales YTD, with Škoda and Seat being small enough to not add up more than 50k or so, compared to Tesla's 408k, and this is before highest peak month for Tesla which will bring it's total to ~500k, give or take few thousand cars.
DeletePlus good chunk of VW AG's sales are PHEVs, which while a good step in the right direction should not be directly compared to BEVs.
Unless you mean in the future, then yeah, VW AG be be #1 PEV manufacturer in 2021 and has decent chance of becoming #1 BEV manufacturer as well (and is all but guaranteed to achieve that in 2022).
Sure...I use to see a ton of electric Skoda and Seat cars in the roads! s/
DeleteLike José wrote, total for Tesla was 54.666 and 52.000+ for Volkswagen Group, close but not far ahead...
Interesting year zero for VW but they are conscientious that they need all the power of this century old group and their dozens of EV and Plug-in Hybrid to be on part of the four cars of a carmaker that only started to make cars industrially since height years ago...
You can compare VW group with Toyota, Stellantis, but not a small company like Tesla.
DeleteTesla sold only 367.000 + units in 2019.
In face many brands like VW, Audi, Skoda, Seat should be outselling Tesla individually.
But if you are talking in PEV, then Tesla outsells VAG. Please add the # and see.
No it wouldn't.
DeleteTesla is comfortably ahead, no doubt about it, but i can tell you that the VW Group (and SAIC, too) are adding more volume to their sales than Tesla, so if things go on like this, by 2022 they will be leveled.
DeleteSo far, what is pulling Tesla to #1 is China, where the VW Group is far behind Tesla (USA is Tesla turf, Europe is VW's), and 2021 shouldn't see that changing much, because if the ID.4 reaches the Model Y level of sales, VW won't have a decent competitor to the Model 3.
Not sure why some are taking it for granted that VW will soon overtake Tesla... While VW is (finally) entering big time, Tesla isn't slowing down either (expected to at least triple in the next two years); and their ambitions for 2025 are similar (actually slightly higher) than the latest I've heard from VW...
DeleteBecause the VW cars are cheaper than the corresponding Tesla cars. VW cars are affordable for the upper part of the middle
Deleteclass. The target grow of the Tesla cars is richer people. Maybe Tesla should consider creating Model 1 (Class A) and Model 2 (Class B) cars. Another posssibility is they develop in paralell or buy a legacy producer andd set it on the market as a budget proposal for Customers. Just what VW Group has done wwith its different brands in the portfolio.
Sure, VW's entry variants are cheaper than Tesla's (especially in Europe, until Tesla has local production) -- but when it comes to "corresponding", that's not so clear: the cheaper VW variants have significantly worse specs; while the better equipped ones aren't really cheaper. And more generally, VW's lineup doesn't have the same pull that makes people stretch to buy a Tesla over some cheaper EV, or to buy a Tesla over some combustion car...
DeleteAlso, even if they have enough buyers, both legacy makers and Tesla are often in a position that they aren't making enough to saturate the market -- so in the end, the one seeing more sales will be the one with bigger production capacity... And as far as I'm aware, Tesla's plans on that score are still more ambitious than VW's. (Although the distance has shortened...)
Tesla already confirmed that they will be making a smaller cheaper car in a few years, but saying that VW is particularly cheap compared to Tesla is kinda wrong, the ID. cars are only moderately cheaper than Model 3/Y (especially if you take the import tariffs out of the equation), and that's not even getting into fact that significant chunk of VW Groups electrification effort will go towards their premium brands of Audi and Porsche. Over next several years VW intends to bring the prices of EV in-line with their equivalent ICE cars but currently gen VW electric vehicles are still fairly expensive.
DeleteJosé, when you wrote that SAIC was the first this month with 54.960 units, but in your chart, SAIC has only 13.167 units. Did you summed the SAIC and the 41.793 SGMW units to obtain the total SAIC units figure?
ReplyDeleteAnd "Boas entradas e bom ano 2021" José
The paragraph you are looking is talking about OEMs, aka. companies, not brands - and just like VW Group tally includes all VW owned brands like VW, Audi, Porsche, Škoda and Seat, SAIC one also includes SGMW which it owns controlling stake in.
DeleteYes, these are figures by OEM (group), while the others are by brand.
DeleteRight! Thanks to both.
DeleteMy 3 biggest looser for 2021:
ReplyDelete1. Tesla model 3
2. Renault Zoe
3. Audi E-tron
Of course e-golf is extinct already.
What are yours?
Cars to crossovers is a global phenomenon. Tesla Model 3 did lose some sales to crossovers, still its sales in 11 months this year is more than its sales for 12 months last year.
DeleteSo expect Model 3 to increase as it goes into many new markets.
On the other hand, see how much sales decrease will BMW 3-Series, Benz C-Series, Audi A4 will take.
The lower volume models from Lexus, Acura, Infiniti will be pummeled.
As many BEVs are coming to market this year and grab some sales; ICE cars will see their sales # and profit margin shrink making the companies consider their future.
Nissan Leaf (MY2021 not big improvements)
DeleteAudi etron (overestimate)
Hyundai Kona Ev (waiting for Ioniq 5)
I don't see why any of these three should see a significant pullback... In fact, I'm pretty sure Model 3 will see further growth in global figures.
DeleteBiggest losers will likely be a bunch of Chinese models, as usual -- that market is extremely dynamic...
Unless you mean in terms of placement on the list? Then I guess the e-tron will be a big loser indeed: but not necessarily more than many other models around the middle of the table...
DeleteZoe will slide below Model Y, ID.3, ID.4 -- but so will almost everyone else.
Model 3 might or might not slip behind HongGuang MINI, Model Y, perhaps ID.4 -- hard to tell at this point. It should be a relatively close race.
Does this plug in market share takes into consideration global petrol auto sales or just regions like Europe, USA, parts of Asia and Australia?
ReplyDeletePretty sure it's global. What use would selective figures be?...
DeleteIt's global.
Delete@Jose Pontes: Many thanks and wish you and your family a very Happy New Year 2021.
ReplyDelete414.368 is a wonderful #. Just 2 months ago, global sales crossed 300K mark and now the 400K mark.
And the global YTD sales crossed 2,5 million mark.
Something we all should be proud of.
Top-3 months are
2020-11: 414.368
2020-09: 345.519
2020-10: 341.531
Next 9 months are
2018-12: 286.367
2019-12: 279.214
2019-06: 264.591
2020-07: 247.575
2020-08: 240.981
2018-11: 237.553
2020-06: 229.894
2019-03: 224.335
2018-10: 208.820
And that rounds the Top-12. So next 9 are shared between 2018,2019,2020 with 3 each. I hope 2021 will leave all these behind.
Would be interesting to see a long table or U.S. focused table. How does Tesla Model S compare to taycan?
ReplyDeleteFor the whole year, Model S should still be clearly ahead... Taycan is around 10,000 IIRC, while Model S should be closer to 20,000 I think. (With the distance likely growing in December.)
DeleteIn the US alone, the difference is way more pronounced...
The Taycan is a niche vehicle and isn't intended to beat the Model S sales...The fact that it does in a few markets, says more about the current weakness of the Model S than of the Taycan success.
DeleteCongratulations Tesla for selling 300K + Model 3 for 2nd year in a row and this time in just 11 months.
ReplyDeleteGlobal cumulative Model 3 sales cross 750K mark which is another achievement.
Global cumulative Tesla sales cross 1,3 milliion mark which is another great achievement.
If Tesla YTD sales is only 407.710; then they have to sell 93.000 units this month to hit their 500.000 mark. Tough sell, lets see. Events to watch in 2021-01 for Tesla.
4-5: Sales
11-12: Any refresh of Model S/X (could be interior, not likely for exterior)
25-29: Earnings call.
Missed by a hair...
DeleteWould be an interesting coincidence if the Tesla Model 3 achieved 367.000 deliveries in 2020 as the same of all Tesla cars deliveries of 2019. :)
DeleteIt will be difficult to verify as Tesla joins the Model 3 and Y in their deliveries reports, but it would be fun if it was.
There were months that we celbrated 200 K PEV mark, but now the BEVs alone crossed 289K. 5,9% share (4,1% BEV) is just amazing. 456K of 2020-12 sales will be needed for
ReplyDeleteWuling HongGuang MiniEV is really a star that started in 2020-06 and rocketed to 85.766 sales in just 6 months. 4 models hit 5 digit mark.
VW ID.3 entering top-20 means Volvo XC60 PHEV is knocked out leaving only 3 PHEVs in the table compared to 4 the previous month. But VW Passat PHEV storm into top-9 which shows that PHEVs will fight it out.
8.549 sales of ID.3 is way below the expectation of the editors and many supporters. For sure Dec will see higher sales, if it does not, then our suspicions about VW will come true and their MEB platform could be in trouble.
Outlander will still end up in top-20 in 2020, but not in 2021, so does the e-Golf with its production closed.
Nissan Leaf sales crossed 500K mark (@ 50K/year) as it completed 10 years. Wonderful car. If it sold @ 50K/year in 1st 5 years, then its ok, but selling @50K/year in 2nd 5 years is pathetically low. No idea about its future after Ariya comes in. I drove 20K miles / 32K km in it in 2 years.
No 1 can predict top-10 as e-Golf drops down, but some other BEV could storm in.
All 4 mini EVs increasing their sales and rank; Baojun E-Series in #10, there are 4 mini EVs in top-20. They are going to pitch in and fight it out in 2021 and giving a run for the money for the bigger vehicles.
ReplyDeleteA person who considers fuel efficient vehicle will also consider a mini ev as long as it can seat at least 4 since most families have 1-2 children. Any dillydallying by legacy automakers will make them a legacy.
A side by side comparison between Nov & Oct shows that, all the models are in tact with only change being ID.3 coming in and XC60 PHEV being out. With average battery cost dropping down from $157 / KWh in 2019 to $137 / KWh in 2020 (despite nasty pandemic) will help BEV much more than PHEV in cost and range.
None of the toyota models being in top-20 and brand itself being in #17 shows that 2020 may be the last year that the company is in top-20. What a shame, the company keeps talking against BEVs every now and then.
May be Jose Pontes should bring another table for FCEV if toyota is willing to pay for that extra cost/time.
In 2020; 28 models were discontinued in USA, 29 of them are petrol, 4 full hybrid, 3 plugin hybrid version. None of them are BEV since most BEVs were already discontinued. Of course MachE, XC40, Polestar-2 were introduced and all of them are compliance cars with only Model Y being a full seller. This shows that the end of ICE-age has begun.
Funny that you proclaim the Chinese mini-EVs next year's winner, yet a few days ago you argued that the Chinese government should phase out subsidies... Historical precedent leaves very little doubt that a further phase-out would make the mini-EVs drop like a rock, as they always have.
Delete(The HongGuang being an obvious exception, since it doesn't get subsidies, and doesn't need them...)
I don't think Polestar is a compliance car. Geely doesn't need compliance cars (at least not in Europe or the US); while Volvo has their own compliance models... Pretty sure Polestar is meant to be a profitable business on its own.
DeleteIn 2019-06 (month end), china cut subsidies by 50% bringing down a 50% drop in sales. Further in 2020-01, they removed subsidies for lower range 150-250 km, yet the PEV sales increased enormously as the automakers increased the range reduced the cost as battery price also decreased. This 20% cut in 2021-01 which costs $700 is nothing and I expect them to cut another 20% every quarter. There will be a slight dip every month, there is a cut, and recovery in the subsequent months. Starting 2022 with lower battery prices and very little subsidies, market should sell much higher.
DeleteI said that MiniEVs will increase their sales along with Model-3, Model-Y, ID.3, ID.4.
The drop after the huge step-down mid-2019 practically wiped out small EVs; and it took more than a year for the market just to recover to previous levels... And only with new incentives being introduced. (Stronger ZEV mandate, sales tax exemption, various local incentives.)
DeleteSubsidies for <250 km were removed as part of the big step-down in 2019. There was no step-down of any kind at the beginning of 2020, and only a small one in mid-2020. (10% decrease in direct subsidies; 300 km minimum range; price cap.)
The new 20% step-down won't kill the market -- but a complete phaseout absolutely would.
Agreed. A 50% cut on $7.200 = $3.600 is a huge cut.
DeleteNow its only 20% cut on $3.400 = $700 (rounded) is a small cut.
Besides, battery prices has gone down. Also the automakers should have found means to reduce the weight of the vehicle. Steel technology has also improved with lighter weight by using more carbon and other alloys.
So automakers will wither this 20% easily.
How big is the global PV market? I know, a difficult question with USA numbers on chassis and not on function.
ReplyDeleteIf the global PV market is 70m, than the BEV share for 2020 will likely be 4.2%.
With a global PV market of 60m, the BEV share will be 5%.
i dont think that the influence of the global PV (Photovoltaik) market corresponds strongly with the BEV market. Since big solar parks take the most of the cake of PV sales. I think global PV market is way above 70m dollar or do you mean 70 million kWhpeak?
DeleteKind regards,
Mr. M
PV = personal vehicle.
DeleteGlobal cumulative PEV sales stands at 9.986.203 for the light duty vehicles which includes all 4-wheeled vehicles using Lithium battery, and that excludes the 2, 3, 6-wheelers and above. Its just 13.797 short of the 10 million mark. Definitely in Dec, the 10 million mark should have crossed. Voohoo, what a wonderful thing that the actual sales of these vehicles started only in 2010-12 though few years before that some vehicles (Mitsu iMiev, Nissan Altra ...) were leased and 1 high end vehicle (Tesla Roadster) was sold.
ReplyDeleteI calculated this # from ev-sales.blogspot and wiki.
If we include the heavy vehicles; buses & trucks; then the # will easily cross 11 million and add a few million low speed EVs (lead battery) and # will cross 16 million. I expect Wuling MiniEV using LFP battery at $4.200 price range to route those low speed EVs and establish LFP as the standard.
Right now NCM/NCA (with cobalt) leads LFP (without cobalt) 2:1 and this is going to change soon.
I don't think the HongGuang MINI will displace most low-speed EVs, since it's a regular car, with *much* higher requirements for registration, insurance, driver's license... More likely it's displacing chiefly barrel-bottom combustion cars.
DeleteIf MiniEV sold 30.000 units last month and if they continue this trend, it could sell 360.000 units in 2021.
DeleteMeanwhile the low speed EVs have seen their sales decline from a high of 1,6 million to around 1 million. So expect all these mini EVs to eat into their sales. It may cost an another 1.000 extra, but has higher range and long lasting batteries which will fetch ROI.
Again, price/cost is *not* the only selling point of low-speed EVs.
Delete(And BTW, the price premium of the HongGuang over the cheapest low-speed EVs is way more than $1000...)
Prospects for 2021: I believe at least
ReplyDelete3 new vehicles/month will be launched in China and all of them will be full sellers.
2 new vehicles/month will be launched in Europe and 1 will be full seller and 1 will be compliance car.
1 new vehicle /month will be launched in USA and that will be compliance car.
Japan is a laggard and the only hope is Ariya. Neither they will buy the Tesla and chinese dont even want to set foot there.
India: Some companies have already launched BEVs and will sell more than in Japan.
Korea: Tesla and few others may increase the sales.
Small EVs will rise further along with Nio, Xpeng. A 40 KWh battery going in 4 Wuling MiniEVs is better than 1 Nissan Leaf since 4 vehicles may go more km than 1 vehicle.
In doldrums are Nissan Leaf and BMW i3 and few other compliance cars.
Lets hope for 4 million PEVs in 2021. Oh wait, if it continues in 400K range of last month, then it should hit 5 million PEVs. But will the big subsidies last? I will stick with 4 million though with a higher %age as petrol/diesel falls. It will be nice if automakers who cannot produce BEVs at least produce plugin, full, mild hybrids and dump diesel totally.
The Leaf is not a compliance car. It was always meant to be a profitable business. (Whether it ever achieved this goal -- with sales much lower than hoped for -- is another question...)
DeleteA longer-range EV will travel more on average. Admittedly, a Leaf will probably not average more than four entry-level HongGuangs... But then again, if mileage per kWh is your primary concern, you should first and foremost be cheering mid-sized EVs, since that is what gets used for taxis.
DeleteHi Jose
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year, thank you for all your hard work on this amazing web-site. best wishes for 2021.
Cheers from Miggy in New Zealand
Thanks, Miggy
DeleteGreat news: China cuts electric vehicle subsidies by 20% in 2021. This brings down the subsidy from 22.500 yuan ($3.441) in 2020 to 18.000 yuan ($2.753) in 2021. This increases the price by $700 which is nothing for a typical electric vehicle that starts at $20.000 there.
ReplyDeleteNio to reduce the price by the same amount if purchased before Jan-10.
After that, they may just reduce the price.
After all price of battery has gone down from $157/KWh to $137/KWh which is $20 less. So a car with 50 KWh battery now costs $1.000 less.
They may cut another 20% in 2021 in months, 04, 07, 10 and scrap it completely by 2022. I am sure by 2021, the battery prices may hit $110/KWh.
Ideally they should give some subsidy to even the car with 100 km range as those customers also drive clean with locally produced electricity with that BEV going 3 times the distance of a petrol car.
Subsidizing a full size car like BYD Han and not giving any subsidy to Wuling MiniEV is unfair. Its like subsidizing the rich and ignoring the poor. This should be the ideal scenario.
> 400 km: $2.750
300 - 400 km: $2.000
200 - 300 km: $1.250
100 - 200 km: $500
This will motivate people to buy smaller electric vehicles at least as 2nd car. For any trip that is within 100 km range, the family can use the EV with the other (petrol) used for distance > 100 km.
In case you haven't noticed: the Chinese government doesn't care about EV subsidies being "fair". The sole purpose of their EV subsidies is to boost the industry -- and consequently, the criteria are based solely on what the government believes will push local makers to create models competitive on the world market...
DeleteJoke and PEV comparison.
ReplyDeleteDirectors are playing golf in club.
Managers are playing tennis in court.
Workers are playing soccer in field.
Moral of the story: higher the position, smaller the balls.
Directors buying vehicles with 10, 12, 16 cylinder engines,
Managers buying vehicles with 5, 6, 8 cylinder engines,
These guys are never going to change and will continue to buy ICE since they dont have the balls.
Workers on the other hand who buys 2,3,4 cylinder vehicles will dump ICE and jump into BEV bandwagon.
Congratulations on ridiculing the group that actually enabled the EV revolution, by buying EVs when most others couldn't afford them...
Delete@antrik: True, some rich bought Electric cars, but many just bought the same old petrol/diesel and mocked at electric. Even today; Model S at $69.420 is a great buy considering the fact that it can save $5.000 - $8.000 in fuel and oil change costs besides enjoying a smoother faster drive, but only 50% of the buyers in that segment go for it, while in Europe & China, everyone ignores it and goes for the same old guzzlers.
DeleteOf course, not everyone is equally enlightened. Still, EV penetration in this segment is a lot higher than in mainstream segments -- and that's unlikely to change for several more years at least.
Delete2021 bestsellers on my list
ReplyDelete1. Wuling Mini
2. Tesla M3
3. VW ID.4
Would be happy to be surprised by other city EVs
OEM: VAG, SAIC, Tesla
I think you are forgetting that Tesla will have two high-volume models next year, not one...
DeleteSo you expect both Tesla in the top 3? Or rather the TMY vs the TM3?
DeleteI actually think the BYD Han has a chance for a top 3 finish as well.
I think it will be early for VW to beat Tesla in 2021. In 2022, though...
Delete@Flow while the ID.4 will surely sell a lot, I'm not sure it will quite see the success and/or the production volumes needed to outsell either of Tesla's volume models...
DeleteBut my point was more about both Teslas combined definitely outselling SAIC (which has only one truly high-volume model), and quite likely also VW.
As for the Han, I don't see why it should see sales about an order of magnitude bigger than any individual BYD model has experienced in the past...
Supposedly VW's long-term volume goal for the ID.4 is 500,000 per year. If they produced that amount right away in 2021, that would most likely be enough to beat the Model 3 and/or Model Y... But that's not exactly probable -- so both Tesla models actually have a good chance of staying ahead.
DeleteWith both the Baojun and the Black Cat accelerating into the finish, there is indeed a decent chance we will end the year with a BEV-only top 10 :-)
ReplyDeleteCurious to see whether
ReplyDelete1. European brands can take market shares in China?
2. Chinese brands landing in larger numbers in Europe (I think they would do well)?
3. Finally some movement in the US with any significant non Tesla sales?
4. Tesla being #1 PEV OEM any major market outside US?
I love these reports and watch them regularly. For OEM reporting, it would be terrific to include EVs as a fraction of total vehicles sold (ICE included). This would help readers understand how much progress an OEM has made in transitioning their automotive business from ICE to EV.
ReplyDeleteFor example, VW and Toyota produce about the same number of total vehicles, but VW is substantially ahead of Toyota in positioning itself for the EV age. As EVs come to dominate that auto market, VW could gain a decisive lead over Toyota in share of total auto market. If ultimately reluctant EV makers like Toyota lose market share because they lag too far behind in developing EV products, this is an important story to tell.
All the best for 2021!
With 56% of PEV sales falling outside top 20 I think it's time to go for top 30 or so for the Global (and maybe even European and Chinese) reports.
ReplyDeleteCan someone tell me why the VW ID.3 sales dipped from 10.584 in Oct to 8.549 in Nov. In fact in Sep, they sold 8.576. Though Nov has 1 less day, still a near 2.000 drop (20%) does not explain the difference. Is VW playing the same notorious tricks that they played all along.
ReplyDeleteWe already know that the ID3 had a big December (15.000 deliveries?). We don't know if it was deliberated from VW for some marketing reason (to begin 2021 with big media impact) or if it was because VW was awaiting the releasing of the software update that make the ID3 fully connected and with all its functions available (which was in fact released few weeks ago).
DeleteThey completed their software only around November. All cars sold before they gave free leasing rates to compensate. So neither ideal for customer nor company.
DeleteDec cars have the updated software and watch out for the sales numbers.
Could be many customers waited for the final software.
DeleteIn corona lockdown waiting a few weeks is no big deal. People were waiting for many months.
Great news. Tesla sold 499.550 vehicles in 2020 with 180.570 in Q4 despite a 7 week & 2 week shutdown in Fremont & Shanghai respectively. Production of 179.757 & 509.737 is also great.
ReplyDeleteThey sold more than what they produced in 2020-Q4, overall in 2020, they have only 10.000 + left in inventory which should be on ships/trucks.
What a wonderful thing. Many legacy automakers should have seen their sales dip between 10% - 20% and Tesla increasing the sales by 36%. If more electric vehicles hit the market, then the petrol/diesel vehicles whose sales already decreased by small %age in 2019 and big %age in 2020 will see only a slight increase in 2021 since there will be a recovery over low 2020.
Even Model S/X saw a big increase in sales with 18.920. 2020-Q3 saw sales of only 13.029. Probably price cuts helped. After all full size 5-door fastback with 650 km range at $69,420 is a best buy. Rejoice.
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries
The SAIC Roewe Ei5 sold 80.000 cars until November 2020.
ReplyDeleteMore on Chinamobile.ru
That's the figure over its entire history, I presume?...
DeleteHooray, Model 3 sales cross 800.000 mark to hit 814.878. Model Y sales cross 75.000 mark to hit 76.808.
ReplyDeleteTotal Tesla sales stand at 1.398.400 which is 1.600 short of 1.4 million mark. Mostly they will make it by today/tomorrow. Every 100.000 mark for Tesla or its model is worth a news.
Another best feature is only 8% of their vehicles are leased with 92% being sold. This is in sharp contrast to more than 60% of luxury subcompact vehicles being leased in USA.
Telsa's 2020 numbers came in: 499.550 cars delivered. That's >$4 bn in gross profit. Will take years for the competition to generate an equal amount
ReplyDeleteWuling, Nio, Xpeng, Li have all achieved record sales in 2020-12.
ReplyDeleteChinese Yuan is appreciating which could make their vehicles costly when exported to other countries. But this could also strengthen their purchasing power.
2020 could end up as the 2nd warmest year on record.
France starts the account with record sales of PEVs.
Lots of great news in 2021.
2020-12 should sell 466.095 for 2020 to hit 3 million mark. Tesla sold 90.350 last month. So 375.745 vehicles are left to be sold. Since we count on a country basis, we will know this in 3 weeks after key European countries and China sales comes in.
ReplyDeleteI recall editors predicting 3,6 million sales, but covid ruined everything.
Any guess for 2021 sales.
As I said earlier that 3 new models / month will be going on sale in china, on 2021-01-09, Nio is showing a car. Most likely it could be hatch based on looks. Its rumored to have 150 KWh battery pack. Please watch it.
Toyota has sold 16 million hybrids worldwide (3% of these are plugin hybrids, fuel cell and battery electric vehicles). The last 1 million came in just 8 months which means they are selling 1,5 million hybrids / year despite pandemic cutting down their sales by 12%.
ReplyDeleteThey dont worry about competition from PEVs as they can sell their hybrids in place of petrol/diesel vehicles and gain market share. In fact, they are setting up a plant with panasonic just to make hybrid vehicle batteries which means those packs could have just 1,5 KWh capacity.
Since the full hybrids go 30 - 50% extra distance compared to a regular petrol vehicle, its ok. Hopefully down the line, they may still migrate to plugin hybrid and keep BEV in back burner.
Lets see how long toyota could play this game. I hope at least diesel sales are reduced drastically.
It will be interesting to see Nissan Qashqai e-Power serial hybrid.
DeleteIt has simple technology and if reasonably priced it may be an excellent replacement for diesel, they should just add a slightly bigger battery to compete with complicated PHEVs.
Serial hybrids aren't really that much simpler. While they do away with the mechanical coupling, that's usually just one or two planetary gear-sets and some clutches -- which is still simpler than a traditional multi-speed transmission... No big deal in terms of costs or reliability. The real complexity is from having two power trains -- which is the same for both types of hybrids.
DeleteNote that virtually all parallel PHEVs have an underpowered electric power train -- which likely has a bigger impact on costs than leaving away the mechanical parts but needing a full-powered electric drive train in a series hybrid...
DeleteReanult sold 46.839 units Renault Zoe in 2019 and 84.128 units until 30.november 2020, so if Renault only products EVs, the RNO stock price will be seven times more or higher???
ReplyDeleteWell, an advice for people that play in the stock market: Bet on the good performing Dinosaurs, like Renault or VW Group.
DeleteEV startups are very, VERY, overvalued. I am not complaining, the higher their valuation, the higher their possibilities to disrupt the market.
The stock market reflects expectations of future performance. More and more people are beginning to understand that combustion car sales will crash precipitously in just a few years -- and what that will mean for incumbents with large combustion car investments... Most (if not all) of their stocks will become worthless. EV startups are a risky investment, but often a less risky one than incumbents at this point.
DeleteSee whether my calc on subsidies is correct. Europeans bought 165.000 PEVs in 2020-11.
ReplyDeleteI believe average PEV gets 8.000 euro in subsidies.
165.000 * 8.000 = 1,320,000,000 euros.
Thats 1,32 billion euros / month.
At this rate, it amounts to 15.84 billion euros / year.
Its ridiculous.
Even at a high price of 40.000 euro / fast charger, some 400.000 fast chargers could be deployed though out Europe (West & East all the way to Urals mountains that divides Europe and Asia).
Did the people of Europe approve this. Or I have stated the # wrongly.
Average direct subsidies aren't anywhere near to that. However, with some countries providing giant subsidies in the form of various tax breaks, the total might not be too far off...
DeleteHowever, given the urgency of the climate crisis, this is not an absurd figure at all. The real issue is that almost all countries take these funds from the general budget -- i.e. from the population at large, including those that don't even drive cars -- instead of increasing taxes on combustion cars.
Toyota 2020-12 USA sales. While total sales increased 20,4 %; hybrid sales increased 82,8 % from 27.313 to 50.649 for just last month. Never in the past, the USA total hybrid sales for a month exceeded 50.000 mark that I know of. If Toyota alone sold this much, how about all others put together.
ReplyDelete2020 total sales decreased 11,3% and hybrid sales increased 22,7% from 274.572 to 337.036.
This means hybrid sales share is 23,4% which is solid.
For sure, Toyota wants to fight the BEV wave with full hybrids. Mirai (FCEV) sales decreased in 67%. Expect toyota to throw out more crap against electric vehicles. They introduced 2 vehicles (Sienna & Venza) with hybrid powertrain as standard. They could do this on more vehicles.
Chevy Bolt sales increased for 2020 from 16.418 to 20.754 (26,4% increase) and this is because of the $8.500 + discount they gave. For 2021, they removed it, no idea who will buy without it. This is what is called dillydallying.
With the Bolt EUV supposedly coming this year (along with a refreshed regular Bolt), and maybe even some Hummers, I guess GM doesn't feel pressure to sell more unprofitable Bolts in order to meet ZEV mandates...
DeleteOr maybe they are counting on a restoration of the federal tax credit.
so so so... if id3 was delivering at this rate the whole year it wouldnt even catch model y. enough to keep vw 2nd place not enough to reach tesla level.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what VW's long-term goal is for ID.3: but ID.4 is supposedly only 500,000 per year -- and with fewer markets, it's likely even less for ID.3... Surely not enough to match Model Y when fully ramped.
DeleteFull ramp up of the ID.3 will only happen in early 2022, when the Chinese operations are in full speed, while the ID.4 full ramp up will only happen by mid-2022, when the US-made ID-4 is in full swing, currently we are witnessing a true arms race regarding EVS, so targets set 6 or 9 months ago are already surpassed.
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