Europe January 2018

VW e-Golf starts in the lead

The European passenger plug-in market started the 2018 season with almost 26,000 registrations, growing 36% regarding the same period last year, a promising start that unfortunately is being made for the most part thanks to plug-in hybrids (+44% YoY), with this technology representing 53% of deliveries.

And yet, out of the five best selling PEVs, four are BEVs, and the majority of the Top 10 belongs to fully electric models.

Well, if BEVs are among the Best Sellers, then why are PHEVs outselling them?

First, there aren’t that many fully electric to choose from, in this Top 20 there are 7 BEVs, against 13 PHEVs, and with the exception of the Kia Soul EV, all of them are regular small to compact car models, no fully electric station wagon is available, no MPV, and especially, Crossovers and SUVs are sorely lacking in the BEV menu, which is not the case on the PHEV side, where there’s 7 Crossover/SUVs to choose, with a wide array of prices, one MPV, two station wagons…

Second, all seven all-electric nameplates have waiting lists, some of them are over 6 months long, so if there weren’t production constraints, BEVs would easily overcome plug-in hybrids. Long gone are the times where high-end executives complained no one wanted EVs…

Looking at PEV share, 2018 started with 2%, and once the much awaited new models arrive (Leaf II, Kona EV…), expect sales to pick up even further, with the plug-in share possibly ending the year at around 4% share, and even some 6% in December...

If the VW e-Golf dethroning the Renault Zoe was the headline in January, the surprise of the month was the Smart Fortwo ED reaching Fifth Place, it seems the tiny two seater is experiencing an overwhelming demand, with the Smart EV already having a nine-months waiting list, suffering from a recurrent problem: “Not enough batteries”.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 Volkswagen e-Golf – Remember the time when saying “e-Golf” was synonymous with “Norway”? Not anymore, despite Norway still being the nameplate largest market (514 units), the German BEV had 506 deliveries in the Netherlands and 450 at home, so the 1,985 units registered in January are more spreaded than a year ago, benefits of a larger battery and more favorable context, which originated a demand that Volkswagen wasn’t expecting, leading to long lead times, something the automaker promised to cut significantly during this year, thanks to increased production.

#2 Renault Zoe – The 1,871 deliveries of January marked a 27% drop YoY, the nameplate worst performance since April, with no known production hiccups, and the demand as strong as ever, this slowdown can be attributed to the fact that LG is not having enough batteries to provide the French automaker. As for market individual performances, despite the dismal result at home (633 units, worst result in 14 months), there were decent numbers in Germany (299 units), Norway (334 units) and Spain (104 deliveries).   

#3 BMW i3 – The German Stormtrooper Hatchback sales were flat in January, with 1,867 units, and with the all-electric version now representing 75% of deliveries, one can consider the i3 as part of the BEV team. Looking at individual countries, strong results in Norway, with 614 units (All BEV), Germany (359 units), and France (172). Looking into 2018, expect deliveries to pick up in the coming months, as BMW goes into full production in its Leipzig plant and delivers as much i3 and i8 as the factory can deliver.

#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Solid as a Rock, the Japanese SUV saw its sales slip slightly (-1% YoY), to 1,165 registrations, but despite this minor setback, the Mitsubishi model continues to profit from its unique mix of space, AWD, range and affordability (40.000€), to make it popular in markets like the UK, Norway, Sweden, or Iceland (126 registrations in this last one). In the long run, with no direct competitors in sight and a promised update during the year, the Japanese SUV will probably stay among Europe’s top sellers, running for the Best-Selling PHEV trophy.

#5 Smart Fortwo ED – The tiny two-seater seems destined for success this year, registering 1,143 units in January. If Germany (729 deliveries) is the main driving force, other market performances are also impressive, with Italy (131 units) and France (98) being the most important. Despite the limited range coming from the small 17.6 kWh battery and the lack of fast-charging, the new Smart Electric has been met with enthusiastic demand, catching Daimler off-guard (Surprise, surprise!), leading to 9 months lead times for the model, making the OEM quest to be an all-electric brand even more pressing. I mean, if there is a car that should have been electric from the beginning, it’s the Fortwo, right? 

Looking elsewhere, the first month of the year has brought a couple of surprises, with the most important being the Seventh Place of the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, with a record 1,017 registrations, with the Korean still production constrained after more than a year on the market, one wonders when will Hyundai deliver enough units to satisfy demand.

The Porsche Panamera PHEV joined the Top 20, in #16, thanks to 678 registrations, and it could be even higher if…It wasn’t suffering from a common disease (Not enough batteries). No wonder then, that the Head Honchos of the Sportscar maker are now deeply in love with the Mission E, as they scent the smell of fresh money coming in…

Other models also shined in January, the Kia Soul EV (779 units) had its best result in over two years, and apparently PSA got some extra units from GM and delivered 335 Opel Ampera-e, a new personal best for the badge-engineered EV.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW (17%) started the year in the lead, followed by Volkswagen (15%) in Second Place, with Renault (9%) ending in the last place of the podium. Interestingly, last year podium was exactly the same.

Outside the medal places, Volvo (8%) is coming strong, with Kia and Mercedes, both with 6% share, following suit.

China January 2018

BAIC EC-Series & Cadillac(!) Shine

After the December sales peak, January signaled the expected hangover, but still, sales stood at some 35,000 passenger PEVs, up four-fold YoY, making this by far the best January ever.

The PEV share started the year at 1.4%, a step below the 2.1% of 2017, but as sales pick up during the year, the expected 2018 PEV share should be around 3%, by year end.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented roughly 40% of all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, especially considering that January is usually one of the slowest months in the Chinese PEV market.

Despite exports still being symbolic, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current production, helped by the fact that it is a highly protected market, as foreign brands only have 5% of PEV sales. Of this (small) cake, 2% belongs to Tesla, with the remaining 3% being distributed by BMW (1%), Cadillac (1%), and other manufacturers (1%).

In January, plug-in hybrids had an exceptional month, collecting four out of the Top 6 positions, which can be explained by the fact that they are less dependent on subsidies. Nevertheless, the BAIC EC-Series is still the poster child of Chinese PEV market, scoring close to 8,000 units, while BYD placed two plug-in hybrid models, the Song SUV and the Qin compact sedan, in the Top 5.

Here’s January Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – BAIC EC-Series: Winning the Best-Selling status for six months in a row in a competitive market like the Chinese is no small feat, even harder is to be the Global Best Seller during those same six months, but that’s exactly what the EC-Series has done, having registered 7,870 units in January. The little city EV is becoming disruptive in its home market, owing its success to a trendy design, reminding that of a Crossover, improved specs (Now with 200 kms / 125 miles range) and competitive pricing (USD 22,000). With the Chinese AND the Global editions of the 2017 Best Selling PEV Award in its hands, the EC-Series has started 2018 in the same tone, and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that this small EV could outsell the Nissan Leaf AND the Tesla Model 3, becoming the 2018 Best Seller…In the World. Again.

#2 – JAC iEV7S/E: One of the EV pioneers in China, selling plug-ins since 2010, JAC is trying to regain relevance with its iEV7S/E compact Crossover, which registered a record 3,356 units in January, allowing it to reach the runner-up position last month. A vehicle targeted to urbanites, for a competitive USD 26,000 before incentives, you get a trendy compact vehicle (Kia Soul-sized), with the 33kWh battery providing just enough range (251 kms / 157 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of the urban jungle.

#3 – BYD Qin PHEV: This is the most common plug-in in China, with almost 100,000 units registered to date, and thanks to recent changes, BYD’s “Model 3” (0-100 kms/h in 5.9s) got its mojo back and is once again a major player, registering 3,339 units last month. With a competitive price (USD 31,000 before incentives), sales are expected to remain high, as long as BYD manages to make enough of them.

#4 – BYD Song PHEV: Build Your Dreams (BYD) current star product, the plug-in hybrid version of its Song compact SUV had 2,681 registrations, a good start of the year, staying above its nemesis, the #5 Roewe eRX5 PHEV. BYD’s “Model Y” won both the Best Selling PHEV and SUV trophies last year, but this year it will have a harder time to secure these Best Seller status, namely because of...

#5 – SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV: …This model. Shanghai Auto has high hopes for their eRX5 twins (BEV and PHEV), and especially for the plug-in hybrid version, having registered 2,217 units last month, earning it its second Top 5 place. Will it be able to beat the BYD SUV this year? Despite being beaten on pure specs (60 kms e-range NEDC), compared with the Song (70 kms), the Roewe seems to be a more accomplished vehicle, and with time it can win street cred, thus improving sales in the long run.

GAC Trumpchi GE3

Outside the Top 5, and even in a slow selling month, there are a couple of models beating records, like is the case of the #6 Roewe i6 PHEV, that with 2,088 units, had its best result since it landed 9 months ago, or the surprising Cadillac CT6 PHEV, a model that so far hadn’t really made an impact in its class, but in January it registered 451 units, shattering its previous record (195 units), managing even to collect its first Top 20 presence, outselling even the almighty Tesla Model S (330 estimated deliveries).

It’s not often that you write that Cadillac outsells Tesla…

Two new additions to the Top 20 joined the ranking in January, with the promising GAC Trumpchi GE3 jumping to #13, thanks to 536 units (New personal best), while the #10 BAIC EX-Series small Crossover reminds us that Beijing Auto is not only the EC-Series, there are other nameplates in the stable able to pull Top 20 presences.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BAIC started the year in the lead, with 25% share, with last year winner BYD not far behind (21%), this was only a first stage of a race that promises to be tough between these two titans, both running for the 2018 title.

In Third Place we have Shanghai-based Roewe consolidating its Bronze medalist status, with 13% share.

Canada December 2017 (& January '18 Preview)

Tesla Shines, but Volt earns Best Seller status

Over 1.700 plug-in units were registered last December in Canada, allowing a record 1.4% share that month, with full year sales ending around 19.000 units, or 0.9% share, a significant improvement over the 0.6% of 2016. For 2018, crossing the 1% threshold is a given, but will it be able to go north of 1.5%?

In December, the big news were of course both Teslas having their usual last month of the quarter peak, with the Model X scoring a record 360 deliveries, winning the monthly Best Seller award, while the Model S registered 267 units, allowing a 1-3 podium for Tesla that month.

The intruder between both Teslas was the Chevrolet Volt, Canada's favorite Plug-in, that scored 300 units, up 10% YoY.

Regarding the full year ranking, the Volt won once again the Best Seller status, its sixth title in this market, scoring a new all-time record on the way, with 4.313 units.

But the Volt wasn't the only model to bring smiles to Chevrolet, the Bolt reached Second Place in its first year on the market, with 2.122 units, allowing the American brand to make its first 1-2 win.

Bronze went to Tesla, but this time it wasn't the Model S to win the medal, but its younger brother Model X, that thanks to 1.803 units, outsold for the first time the Model S.

Elsewhere, we should highlight the Hyundai Ioniq BEV performance, ending the year in Sixth, despite the chronic production constraints that afflicts the Korean model, something tells me that if they didn't existed, a podium place could be possible for the Hyundai nameplate.

Looking into January preliminary results, we have the Chevrolet Volt leading once again, delivering 226 units, followed by its younger Bolt relative, clocking 187 registrations, all while the recently arrived Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV scored an impressive 174 registrations in its first full sales month, which could signal a promising career for the Japanese SUV.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Chevrolet (34%) won the 2017 title, its sixth, with Tesla (18%) winning Silver and Ford (10%) earning Bronze.

  Source: Green Car Reports 

Tesla Model S & Others

Pl	Model	Dec. Sales
1	BMW 5-Series	321
2	Mercedes E/CLS-Class	296
3	Tesla Model S	267
4	Mercedes S-Class	155
5	BMW 7-Series	68

Looking at the full-size vehicles general ranking, this time the Model S was only Third, as the BMW 5-Series jumped to #1, inclusively surpassing the chronical leaders Mercedes CLS/E-Class.

Looking into 2018, expect the Model S to have plateauing sales, which will place it around Second / Third Place once again.

Tesla Model X & Others

Pl	Model	Dec. Sales
1	BMW X5	489
2	Mercedes GLE	470
3	Tesla Model X	360
4	Audi Q7	254
5	Volvo XC90	245

Looking at the Model X general placement in its class, the record performance of December allowed the Sports SUV to reach the podium, with the Model X collecting a Bronze Medal, it seems the Minivan-Sports SUV-Crossover from Tesla is coming into its own and replicating the Model S in its class. 

Will it be able to improve it in 2018?

Germany January 2018

Smart Fortwo ED starts 2018 in the lead

The PEV Fever has definitely caught on in Germany, with January sales growing 107%, to over 5.500 registrations last month, with the PEV Share reaching a record 2.1%.

Looking at last month Best Selling models, the Smart Fortwo ED is selling like hot cakes, with 729 units, leaving the VW e-Golf and Kia Soul EV(!) miles behind, with 450 registrations. The Korean Crossover had its best result in two years, the question will be how many of them will end up in Norway...

Another hot item is the #4 BMW i3, with 359 units, the Hot Hatch was followed by the Renault Zoe, making it five BEVs in the top places.

This underlines the BEV growth (+131%), compared to PHEVs (+88%), if plug-in hybrids continue to outsell all-electric cars, the advantage is narrowing every passing month, now standing at 51% vs 49% share, so it is likely that this year BEVs will outsell Plug-in hybrids for the first time since 2015.

Despite struggling with production (Who isn't, these days?), the Porsche Panamera PHEV still scored 151 units, its best result since last June, confirming that Porsche+electricity is no longer an oxymoron and the upcoming Mission E should have a bright future ahead.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen started the year in the lead, with 18% share, followed by Smart (16%) and last year winner BMW (14%), while Mercedes and Kia, both with 11% share, are on the lookout for a podium position.

Source: kba.de

Plug-ins and Regular Hybrids

Pl	Model	Jan. Sales
1	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	1.179
2	Toyota C-HR Hybrid	1.038
3	Toyota Auris Hybrid	826
4	Smart Fortwo ED	729
5	Toyota RAV4 Hybrid	615

After several months feeling the heat of Plug-ins, and being reached by some of them, Toyota came back with a vengeance, with the Yaris, C-HR and Auris Hybrids monopolizing the podium, and only one BEV breaking into the Top 5, with the Smart Fortwo ED being the sole non-Toyota model in this Top 5.

Was this a one time thing, or is Toyota back in form and able to push Plug-ins and the Korean hybrids out of the Top 5?

France January 2018

Quo Vadis, Renault?

The French PEV passenger car market registered 2.331 units in January, down 14% YoY, mostly due to the horrid month of the Renault Zoe (-62% YoY), that with only 633 registrations, had its worst performance in 14 months...Considering the model has still a 3 to 4 months waiting list, it's not for lack of demand, which poses the question: Why isn't Renault increasing the production rate of its electric model?

Looking elsewhere in January, if BEVs were down because of the Renault Zoe slump and the Nissan Leaf generation change, PHEVs were up a remarkable 129%, placing two models in the Top 5, with both models being midsize SUVs (Volvo XC60 PHEV and Mercedes GLC350e), which tells a lot regarding the current market trends.

Silver went to the BMW i3, no big surprises here, but the Kia Soul EV reaching Bronze, with 136 registrations (Best performance in almost two years), was unexpected, was this a freak event or is the local Kia importer pushing sales of its little BEV? Let's wait for further developments on this one.

Underlining the current strength of Volvo, the Swedish brand placed two models in the Top 10, besides the #5 XC60 PHEV, the XC90 PHEV flagship was Eighth last month, thanks to 79 registrations, its best performance in 20 months.

Looking at the brands ranking, the year starts with the same podium as it ended 2017, with the leader Renault always in #1, but this time with only 27% share, with last year runner-up BMW growing their share to 13%, and the 2017 Bronze medalist Mercedes increasing to 9% share.

Sources: Avere France; CCFA

Netherlands January 2018

VW e-Golf Shines

January had 1.620 registrations (2.7% share), up 126% regarding the same period last year, after several months recovering from the PHEV addiction, the market is starting to get into cruise speed, with both technologies growing (BEVs +182%, PHEVs +16%). 

Last month it was all about the VW e-Golf, with the German model shattering its previous record, by registering 506 units. Also important is the fact that 23% of all VW Golf sales came from the BEV version. Considering the VW best seller is production constrained and the automaker promised to double the output, how high can the e-Golf go? 900 units/month? More?

Looking elsewhere, positive month also for the Hyundai Ioniq BEV and Opel Ampera-e(!), with both models breaking also their personal bests, and securing a podium seat in the first step of the 2018 race.

The BMW i3 also had a promising start, helped by the facelift, the German hot hatch scored 131 units (One of them was a Rex), being its best result in 25 months.

Surprising results for the two best selling PHEVs, with the Volvo XC60 PHEV registering 87 units, the best sales result for a plug-in hybrid ever since they lost the company car incentives, while the Porsche Panamera PHEV had 59 sales, its best result in four years.

Final mention to the Peugeot Partner Tepee EV, that registered 9 units in January, allowing it a Top 20 presence, this says a lot about PSA state of mind, on the face of the current fast electrification process, they were caught with their pants down and while their new Plug-ins do not arrive in 2019/20, they are stuck between a rock (Being ripped off by GM with the Ampera-e) and a hard place (Selling short range, niche BEVs).

Not a good place to be, especially considering they were leaders on the Second Age of the Electric Car...

Regular Hybrids + Plug-ins Ranking

Pl	Model	Jan. Sales
1	Kia Niro HEV	585
2	Toyota C-HR Hybrid	524
3	Volkswagen e-Golf	506
4	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	330
5	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	320

If we add regular hybrids to plug-ins, the Kia Niro is confirming to be a consistent leader, winning January with relative ease, followed by two plug-ins (VW e-Golf and Hyundai Ioniq BEV) and two Toyota Hybrids in the ranking.

Are the Japanese brand hybrids losing momentum?