Monday, February 25, 2019

2018 Global mainstream Best Sellers by segment, compared with PEV Best Sellers

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model Y
Tesla Model Y(?)

After checking out the 2018 Global Best Sellers in the mainstream market, i have decided, for the fun ot it, to compare it with each segment 2018 EV Best Sellers, but first, here's a short analysis on the 2018 Global Top 25: 

- Best Selling car was the Toyota Corolla, with 1.4 million units, followed by the Ford F-Series (1.1m) and Toyota RAV4 (0.8m);

- There's 2 Toyota on the Top 10 (#1 Corolla; #3 RAV4), 2 Nissan (#4 Sylphy/Sentra; #8 X-Trail), 2 Honda (#5 Civic; #9 CR-V), 1 Ford (#2 F-Series) and 3 Volkswagen (#6 Tiguan; #7 Golf; #10 Polo), of all these models, only two have plugin versions (VW Tiguan, VW Golf), which means most of this Top 10 is being threatened by electrification;

- Grouping the Top 20 by vehicle segments we have: 7 compact cars (Best Seller: #1 Toyota Corolla), 8 compact crossover/SUVs (#3 Toyota RAV 4), 3 midsize cars (#11 Toyota Camry) 3 full-size pick-up trucks (#2 Ford F-Series), 1 midsize pick-up truck (#19 Toyota Hilux), 1 compact MPV (#23 Wuling Hongguang), 1 premium midsize car (#24 Mercedes C-Class) and 1 subcompact car (#10 VW Polo).

Now, grouping the 2018 PEV Top 20:

- 4 subcompact cars, one of them Premium (BMW i3), (Best Seller: #2 BAIC EC-Series), 6 compact cars (#3 Nissan Leaf), 3 compact crossover/SUVs (BYD Song); 1 premium midsize car (#1 Tesla Model 3), 2 midsize SUVs (#10 Mitsubishi Outlander), 2 fullsize premium cars (#4 Tesla Model S), 1 fullsize premium SUV (#5 Tesla Model X) and 1 city car (#13 Chery eQ).

What are the main differences between both?

- Compact vehicles (Cars+SUVs+MPVs) have the vast majority of the mainstream market, with 16 models, or 64% of the models coming in that size, while in the PEV market, sizes are more evenly spread, with compacts owning 45% of the total;

- Plugins are still very much a premium thing, with 25% of plugin models in the hands of that high end part of the market, while in the mainstream market, only one model (or 4%) fits in that category, in a low #24;

- Chinese models make 55%(!) of the PEV ranking, while on the mainstream market, only one model (or 4% of the total) shows up. A telling tale for the future?  

- Pick-up trucks are basically non-existent in the PEV market, and yet, on the mainstream market, 4 out of the 25 Best Sellers (or 16%) are pick-ups. This is, by far, the largest hole in the plugin market

Now, comparing each PEV segment winner with their mainstream counterpart, we have the following:

- The Best Selling EV in 2018 was the midsize premium Tesla Model 3, with 146k units, which is still less than 1/3 of the category Best Seller (Mercedes C-Class, 473k), but with the current production ramp-up, 300k units for the Model 3 seems feasible this year, and could even run for the category #1 in 2020, being the first plugin to reach a global category win; 

- The BAIC EC-Series (90k) is waaay behind the market leader VW Polo (725k), and even if someone in this category surpasses 100k this year (Renault Zoe?), it will still take a few years to disturb the German hatchback, or even the #2 Toyota Yaris (412k);

- The Nissan Leaf sold less than 1/10 of the leader Toyota Corolla, so plugins will have to wait a few years to make a dent in this category, with the VW ID3 possibly being the first to ruffle some feathers, in 2021. That it is, if the Chinese don't do it first;

- Ditto for the compact crossover/SUV category. It's either the VW or China; 

- In the A-category, or city cars, nevermind the low 40k units of last year EV leader Chery eQ, with the mainstream leader at just 265k units (Suzuki/Maruti Alto), with the Chinese EV market growing at neck-breaking pace, and the Renault Kwid EV set to land late this year, expect the French EV to take this crown by 2022, unless another model from Chinese or Indian origin does it before that date. 

- In the fullsize category, the Tesla Model S (50k) sold only 12% of the category leader, the Mercedes E-Class (403k), so amazingly as it may seem, the Tesla nameplate still has a lot of room to grow, until it starts to be relevant in its segment. Same thing for the Tesla Model X, although the ceiling is significantly loweron the SUV category, at 250k, so the Sports SUV has its life easy(er).

- Which takes us to the Tesla Model Y. Unlike what 99% think (me included), it might be the case that the Tesla midsize SUV might not have the same growth prospects of its Model 3 sibling, as the Best Selling midsize premium SUV was the Mercedes GLC, at 360k. I am sure the Model Y will take this category leadership, once it is in full speed, let's say, in 2021, BUT, the nameplate full potential might be at around 400k units/year, below the Model 3 (500k?).     


  1. Maarten VinkhuyzenFebruary 25, 2019

    Wow, there is a lot of room to grow.

  2. I really don't like those categories. They don't really tell a story. People switch between categories all the time. Especially for a newly emerging market like EVs, categories are irrelevant in my eyes.

    Because almost all EVs on the market are production constraint.

    What should be analysed is how traditional car manufacturers perform. What is their market share among EVs compared to their mainstream market share? What is their EV growth rate compared to new entries?

    What growth do they aim for in 2019 or 2020 and how does it compare to the market growth rate? Those are the questions that need to be focused on in my opinion.

    Also, keep in mind that a given category can have more or less competition or individual models can be more popular than others. So the number of models from a given category in the top 20 is a metric subject to high errors. A category can be subject to 50 popular models and thus spread up more than another who has only 10, but which all show up in the top 20.