Thursday, February 28, 2019

Global Top 20 - January 2019

Models: BYD Yuan EV #1, as disruption unfolds

Registrations grew an amazing 83%  YoY in January, to over 153,000 units, with BEVs jumping even faster, at 143% YoY, allowing them to no have 72% of the market, while the Global PEV share already hit 1.9% last month. 

these brilliant performances  continue throughout the year, and we could reach a final yearly tally of around 3,6 million units. 

This would place the global PEV share close to 4% by year end, and the complete disruption of the market by 2021.  

But we are already witnessing the first signs of the upcoming disruption, as 9 of the models in January's Top 20 weren't there one month ago, and one of them jumped to #2!

Highlighting a memorable month for the Chinese EV market, not only the BYD Yuan EV jumped to the leadership, after ending 2018 in #17, but 13 out of the 20 models present here came from China…

...And 6 of them (BYD Yuan EV, Baojun E100, BYD Tang PHEV, Geely Emgrand GSE EV, Changan Eulove EV, and Great Wall Ora iQ5 EV)  did it with record results, all in one of the usually slowest months in China. Now imagine this kind of disruption on a traditionally strong month, like March…

It is still too early to know if this a freak event, or not, but one thing is certain, the weak month of the Tesla Model 3, only #4 in January is explained by the fact that the maker tried to sell everything it had in December, because of the end of the full US tax credit, and because in January it focused in shipping Model 3's to overseas markets, actual deliveries in January were abnormally low, which should be compensated in February and especially March, with a true tsunami of global deliveries.

March is now looking as a possible record breaking month. Now, imagine how June, September and December will be...

But enough of the disruption being brought by China and Tesla, what about Legacy OEMs, is there anything insteresting happening?

Oh yes...The Hyundai Kona joined the ranking at #15, and should rise even further as the year develops, signaling another trend for 2019: The rise of Korean models.

As for the remaining ranking, it is rather surprising to see the VW e-Golf showing up in #17, but this is maybe one way of Volkswagen saying: "Hey, don't forget us, we are still in the race!". 

Finally, a special mention for the quirky Great Wall Ora iQ5 EV, the first dedicated EV from the Chinese giant, having landed only a few months ago and with a, let's say, controversial styling, this sort of Manga-style BMW X4 is helping Great Wall to recover lost time and become one of the major players in the field.

Resultado de imagem para ora iQ5
Great Wall Ora iQ5 EV

Manufacturers: BYD wins January

January saw BYD win the monthly Manufacturers title, thanks to some 28.000 units, as the automaker kept on pushing production, even after the new year got in. 

With Tesla focusing in shipping production to overseas markets, SAIC took the opportunity to jump into Second Place, thanks to a record 14.721 registrations, with the Shanghai-based maker already opening up a significant distance over the competition, in the race for this year Third Spot (because we know who will be in the first two places, right?...). 

Coming down from Outer Space and back to Earth, Nissan started the year in 4th, but with #5 Geely growing faster YoY, the Japanese carmaker could lose its spot in a couple of months, which would make three Chinese makers in the Top 4, in the company of Tesla.

And the Best Selling Legacy OEM would be the #5 Nissan. If this isn't disruption, i don't know what is...

The tumble of the month went for BAIC, that dropped to #9, with only 4,500 deliveries, with rumours saying that they had problems at their plants, thus preventing them to fulfill orders, while Chery also had a significant drop, from #7 to #15, regarding December.

But for every drop, there is a climb, and this time it was no exception, Volvo jumped 5 position regarding December, to #15, while the #13 Great Wall and #18 Lifan joined the ranking, both scoring record results last month.
Will they hold on to a Top 20 spot? Great Wall almost seems certain, but regarding Lifan, there's still some doubts regarding their consistency.


  1. JMC E200 not on the list? In China have 2763 sales.

    1. China was (still is) preliminary data. JMC E200 had the numbers of two models (E200 and E100).

  2. Great start !

    It seems that actually all automakers in the Top 20 except Volvo and Mitsubishi (Kia ?) sold more BEVs than PHEVs.
    Can we see them in blue ...? (Sign of times changing)
    Even if it changes a bit in the next months for some of them (VW, BMW, ...)(and I believe for most of them it won't), better to stay on the brighter side ! :-)
    Thanks Jose
    Great job

    1. Good idea, will do so in the next edition.

  3. Jose,

    The Kia e-Niro is not in the global top 20 list yet, but I think it will enter the global top 20 list within the next few months. And it will remain in the global top 20 list till the end of 2019.


    1. I agree. All they need is to get enough batteries.

  4. Mitsubishi's number is off in brands rankings.

  5. We shall see the true demand will turn out to be for the Tesla Model 3; the abyssal January 2019 sales have multiple factors, but none of them are the constant reference of Tesla focusing in shipping Model 3's to overseas markets. In fact, Tesla only managed to start shipping to Europe at the end of 2nd week of January, and that was way less than 2.000 Model 3. Similar situation regarding first shipment to China (by the 4th week of January), also less than 2.000 Model 3. If Tesla still manages to build more than 5.000 units every week, in January alone, Tesla churned out more than 25.000 Model 3. There must be a good deal of then in transit for Europe and China on board car carriers, but not 4.000 or 5.000 units each on them, because by February 2019, Tesla had in US soil more than 10.000 Model 3 with US spec sitting unsold on inventory lots even after price cuts to entice people into them.

  6. Is there an explanation of the colour/bolding used in the models table? Seems obvious enough that blue is BEV and black is PHEV, but what does bold signify?

    Also what are their meanings in the brands table?

    1. Bold means Long Range, which is >300 kms for BEVs and 50 kms for PHEV, both on WLTP cycle.

      Once we have Very Long Range (600 kms BEV, 100 km PHEV) models, hopefully not too long in the future, they will be Bold AND Italic.

    2. Also, blue in brands means that the brand only sells BEVs.

  7. Maarten VinkhuyzenFebruary 28, 2019

    What surprised me was the sea of blue in the Models top 20.
    While the Europeans (Peugeot, Renault, MB, Audi, etc.) are coming with more PHEV than BEV this year.

    1. Yep, let's see what happens then, but i would think BEVs will continue growing, unaffected by the new PHEV wave, while the new PHEVs will eat more share from ICE.

      As the PEV market goes mainstream, PHEVs will play a part in making less informed/motivated/conservative buyers go electric.

    2. @Jose on that note, I've observed for a long time that PHEV sales and BEV sales seem to be mostly orthogonal, and thus it would be more informative to list them separately...

    3. Personally, i like to have both in the same place, as it is more visible who is the dominant force and what the market is preferring.

    4. I don't see how having two separate tables (with their own totals) next to each other would make that any less visible...