Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Europe January 2019

Resultado de imagem para New Tesla Model 3
"Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? I never thought it would take so long to land in Europe..."

Renault Zoe leads the BEV counter-strike

The European passenger plug-in market registered over 33,000 registrations in January, growing 28% regarding the same period last year, but don’t be fooled into thinking that it’s business as usual in Europe, because we are witnessing the fall from grace of PHEVs, which have been experiencing consecutive losses since the new WLTP-rules enforcement, while on the other hand, BEVs have been flourishing, in the first month of 2019 all-electrics jumped 67% YoY, to almost 21,000 deliveries, being now responsible for 62% of all PEV sales, leading to a record 1.7% EV share, and adding PHEVs to the tally, the share jumps to 2.8%, already above the 2.5% result of 2018.

And this is before the Tesla Model 3 tsunami

The big news in the top positions is the Hyundai Kona EV jumping to #6, with a record 2,263 deliveries, no doubt proof of the popularity of the Korean crossover across the continent, now all Hyundai needs to is finding enough batteries to fulfill demand…

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

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#1 Renault Zoe – The 3,340 deliveries in January signaled the return to the leadership of the French hatchback, with deliveries up 79% YoY, and now with no production constraints, one should see if the demand continues as strong for the current generation, one the much improved “new” is showed to the world in the Geneva Auto Show. As for market individual performances, the Zoe continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,496 units, +136% YoY), and there also were positive numbers in Germany (799 units), Sweden (239 units) and The Netherlands (237 deliveries, new record).

 Resultado de imagem para white Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV

#2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Dependable and always fit for service, the Japanese SUV started this year race in 2nd, thanks to 2,983 registrations, with the Mitsubishi model continuing to be popular in Scandinavia (456 units in Sweden, 415 in Norway) and elsewhere, as the several three-digits performances (Germany, France, Spain, UK…) can attest. This is a popular nameplate, due to its mix of utility, space, decent electric range and (relative) affordability. On the long run, one wonders how much damage the recent BEV push will make, although, with no direct BEV competitor in sight, the Mitsubishi model can still rack up sales without major worries.

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#3 Nissan Leaf – Europe’s 2018 Best Seller and the most common plug-in in the world started the year in 3rd, possibly giving the first signs that their audience is already waiting for the 62 kWh version, and considering that the new version will only be available across the Continent in in the beginning of the summer, Nissan will have to pull out some rabbits out of the hat (as in, nice discounts) to continue in a steady pace. Nevertheless, by registering 2,899 units in January, the Nissan hatchback showed that is can still move a significant level of stock, with the main markets being Norway (673 deliveries), France (341), and The Netherlands (396).

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#4 BMW i3 – The German Stormtrooper Hatchback sales were up 33% in January, to a near-record 2,489 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from the age-old formula “bigger battery = bigger sales”. Looking at individual countries, Norway (619 units) and Germany (703) were the highlights, but France (229), The Netherlands (112) and Austria (106), were also significant markets for the BMW nameplate. Looking into 2019, expect deliveries to remain relatively stable in the coming months, as the Tesla Model 3 could steal some growth potential to it, but it won’t be enough to put its sales in the red.

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#5 Volkswagen e-Golf – Remember the time when saying “e-Golf” was synonymous with “Norway”? Not anymore, despite Norway still being one of the largest markets (666 units), the German BEV deliveries are now more balanced, having registered 746 deliveries at home, with The Netherlands (653) also posting a big three digit-performance, so the 2,442 units registered in January were more evenly spread than in the past. It remains to be seen how the e-Golf will resist to the arrival of newer, more competitive models, while at the same time, it will have to deal with the Osborne effect of the much-hyped VW ID Neo /ID3 / whatever it will be called.

 Resultado de imagem para volvo lineup 2019

Looking elsewhere in the ranking, besides the #6 position of the hot Hyundai Kona EV, we should also mention the 68% sales jump of the #7 Volvo XC60 PHEV, to a record 1,615 units, while the Hyundai Ioniq Electric joined the Top 10, in #8, highlighting one if this year trends: The rise to power of the Korean models, as we now have 6 Koreans(!) in the Top 20, 3 from Hyundai and 3 from Kia.

Volvo has also reasons to smile about, not only the Volvo XC60 PHEV is beating records, but its larger sibling XC90 PHEV is also on the up, having delivered 878 units, its best result in 22 months, while the S/V90 PHEV twins jumped into the Top 20, in #19, making 3 Volvo’s in this ranking, which is especially surprising, when one thinks that the Swedish brand still hasn’t joined the now fashionable BEV-bandwagon…

In #20, we find the Audi e-Tron, that despite being still in demo-mode, it is already on the Best Sellers radar, giving reason to the big success expectations that the 10,000-plus waiting list of the Audi electric SUV is providing.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking there are some interesting duels, last year winner BMW (14%) is already in the lead, followed by Hyundai (12%), that came out of nowhere to #2, while Renault and Nissan are running for the last place in the podium, both with 10% share.

Just outside the medals, Mitsubishi and Volvo, both with 9%, are on the lookout for an opportunity to join the podium.


  1. What about iPace? Is it recovering from its December effort?

  2. Jose,

    What happened with the Jaguar i-Pace in Europe in January 2019? Not even in the top 20?

    We know about the new rules regarding the tax incentives in The Netherlands (4% is limited to a maximum amount of €50,000.- and above is 22%).


    1. I think January, Audi was building up inventory before deliveries pick back up. In Norway for example, 337 I-pace have been registered but 257 of them were in February alone.

    2. Jaguar ended 2018 without inventory, and January production was for overseas markets.

  3. Isn't the current PHEV dive just a temporary thing also linked to models phase-out and new WLTP-RDE homologations?
    The Passat GTE is back, the C and E Mercedes are back, BMW still selling the majority of them, Volvo updating them and now Audi just recently announcing new models for TFSIe versions on the A6, A7, A8 and Q7, surely they might attract new customers, like a certain e-tron is already showing?
    Any PEV is way better than any high efficiency ICE or self charging petrol car...
    It is a much worse to find a long queue of cars at a Supercharging stall or CCS plaza, PHEV cars are needed for a long time, the transition can't be sudden for the benefit of us all!

  4. We should see PHEV sales grow again once VW and the like bring out WLTP compliant models.

  5. Maarten VinkhuyzenFebruary 27, 2019

    How is it possible that Nissan for the second time in a row killed their Leaf sales by announcing a new, far better model that will be available last in their biggest market.

    There is a name for this marketing error, and I don't mean stupidity.

    On another note, the Korean advance is stunning. I have interviews with both Renault and Nissan, and I will question them on this.

    1. I know, but i guess this time the delay in Europe should be connected to Brexit, in case of no-deal, i suspect they will move part of the production to Barcelona.

  6. The Model 3 tsunami will be like what we saw in the US but the drop in demand will happen sooner and will not be as many. The Model 3 will take the top spot in EU and a few countries for a few months than drop down the list going into Q3/Q4.

    1. Nadie lo duda el Tesla model 3 estará en marzo número 1 de todas las listas de ventas, por países y europeas, no se compara con los eléctricos sino con los ice

  7. Jose,

    The Opel Ampera-e will probably not enter the top 20 list in Europe in 2019.

    What do you think about the sales expectations of the Opel Ampera-e in Europe in 2019?


    1. Less than 2018. With PSA starting to deliver their own BEV's, there is less need for French Group to continue buying Bolts from GM.

      I would even say that this will be the last year of the Ampera-e (short) career.

  8. Jose,

    472 Tesla Model 3 deliveries in The Netherlands in February 2019.