Thursday, October 17, 2019

Germany September 2019

Resultado de imagem para Tesla model 3 germany

Tesla Model 3 #1 in record month

The German PEV passenger car market continues on the fast track in September, having scored a new record, with 9,452 registrations, doubling last year result, with BEVs (+150% YoY) pushing the market up, and this time PHEVs were also helping (+51%), allowing the PEV Share to reach a record 3.9% share last month, with BEVs alone hitting a best ever 2.4%, pulling the 2019 plugin share to 2.7% (1.7% BEV).

After the last win in June, September brought back the Tesla Model 3 to the monthly leadership, with 1,516 deliveries, its best result since March, while the BMW i3 picked up the runner-up spot and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV got the 3rd place, allowing it to be last month Best Selling PHEV.

This time the Renault Zoe was dropped from the podium, having to settle with a 4th position, with 634 units, but considering the current skin generation change, it is not too bad. Expect it to rebound soon, possibly with a couple of four-digit performances by year end. (It will surely need them, if it wants to keep the 2019 Best Seller status, but more on that below…)

Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
1,516
2
BMW i3
865
3
Mit. Outlander PHEV 
685
4
Renault Zoe
634
5
 BMW 225xe A. Tourer
505

In the YTD table, things pretty balanced in the front group, with the leader Renault Zoe busy doing a reskin, the Tesla Model 3 profited from the usual end of quarter high tide to come closer to the French hatchback (only 194 units separates them), and surpass the BMW i3 at the same time, dropping the German hatchback to #3.

With 3 games (months) to play, the race is on between the Zoe and the Model 3, both with a 45% chance to win the prize, with both nameplates having to deal with unkown variables: it is still unknown how fast the new Zoe will be delivered in large volumes, while the Model 3 production/allocation for Germany in Q4 could be severely affected by the predictable inflated deliveries in the Netherlands, and on a smaller degree, by the UK demand, still in waiting-list deployment.

The remaining 10% chance to reach #1 goes to the BMW i3, that has no visible production issues, but the 527 units that separates it from the leadership, added to the fact that its demand doesn't allow it to score four-digit performances, makes it a sort of a dark horse, waiting/cheering for slip ups (slow ramp up for the Zoe, allocation problems for the Model 3) from the top two, to reach the Best Seller prize.

One thing is certain, this is probably the most exciting race among the top markets, so don't forget to bring the popcorns...

Outside the podium, we have the Smart Fortwo EV climbing to #6, while the #10 BMW 530e and #11 Mercedes E300e/de continue on their private race for Best Selling Luxury Car, and the #12 Nissan Leaf had a year best performance, with 308 registrations, so it seems the 62 kWh version is (finally!) doing some good to the Japanese hatchback.

The Kia Soul EV (both generations counted), was up one spot, to #16, and is now looking to reach the back of the #15 Hyundai Ioniq Electric.


But the real story in the lower positions of the ranking, is the PHEV resurgence, with the #14 Mini Countryman PHEV scoring 223 units, its best result since January, while we now have the Volvo XC60 PHEV, that thanks to a personal best performance of 141 registrations, managed to reach #20, thus kicking out the Jaguar i-Pace from the table.

"PHEV's back, alright!!!"

If we see some good performances coming from plugin hybrids on the Top 20, it is outside the ranking, that we take full notice that, like the Backstreet Boys, PHEVs were back in September, to the joy and/or dismay of many.

So, here are some of the most important performances: the new BMW 330e scored 168 units, already a new best for the nameplate in Germany, the new X5 PHEV registered 43 units, the Audi Q5 PHEV did 100 registrations, the Mercedes C300e/de had 61 deliveries, the PHEV version of the C-Class best result in over a year, while both the revised VW Passat GTE (112 units) and the Porsche Cayenne PHEV (63) had their best results since the new WLTP rules were enforced, a little over a year ago. 

In the middle of all these PHEV landings, a certain Porsche Taycan also started to ramp up registrations, with 78 units showing up last month...

The performances of these plugin models will surely be interesting to see in the last quarter of the year...

In the brands ranking, BMW (20%) is the clear leader, with the Tesla (12%, up 1%) earning precious advantage over the #3 Renault (11%).

Outside the podium, we have Mitsubishi (8%), followed by Volkswagen and Hyundai, both with 7% share, and trying to catch the Japanese brand.





Premium Midsize Car Best Sellers

Pl
Model
Sep.
Sales  
1
Mercedes C-Class
5,021
2
BMW 3-Series
3,154
3
Audi A4
2,075
4
Tesla Model 3
1,516
5
BMW 4-Series
597

The Tesla Model 3 is closing in on the German Big 3, with the Audi A4 being the weakest link of them, so it wouldn't be surprising to see it fall behind the Californian in one of the upcoming high tides. 

Outside Tesla, the only model with a certain degree of electrification is the BMW 3-Series, with 5% of sales coming from the PHEV 330e. Now imagine if 20% came from that version...It would be 600 units! Enough for a Top 5! Will BMW have enough batteries for that?


Midsize SUV Best Sellers


Pl
Model
Sep.
Sales  
1
Mercedes GLC
3,558
2
BMW X3
2,576
3
Volvo XC60
1,514
4
Audi Q5
1,281
5
Mitsubishi Outlander
988


Ig the Top 2 models are (still) very much ICE models, the following ones are already electrified, in various degrees, from the 8% PHEV share of the Audi Q5, or the 9% of the Volvo XC60, to the 69% of the Mitsubishi Outlander.

This last performance begs the question: When will Mitsubishi make the Outlander na entirely plugin model?

Anyway, 3 electrified models out of 5 is already something...


Full size Car Best Sellers


Pl
Model
Sep.
Sales  
1
Mercedes E-Class
3,639
2
BMW 5-Series
2,670
3
Audi A6
1,767
4
Volvo S/V90
373
5
BMW 7-Series
296

Funny enough, with the exception of the #3 Audi A6, all other models have PHEV versions, and although their shares in the overall sales aren't brilliant (from 8% on the E-Class, to 14% on the 7-Series), they show plenty of space for improvement, something that the new Porsche Taycan will no doubt help to do.


Full size SUV Best Sellers

Pl
Model
Sep.
Sales  
1
VW Touareg
1,077
2
BMW X5
1,029
3
Mercedes GLE
774
4
Porsche Cayenne
553
5
Audi Q8
494

The full size SUV category seems to have a low rate of electrification, compared to the respective car class, with only the BMW X5 (4% of sales coming from the PHEV version) and the Porsche Cayenne (11%) having a certain degree of electrification, while the Audi e-Tron EV is only #7 in the category, but things in a few months could look quite different, as the new long range PHEV version of the Mercedes GLE is set to land, making it an attractive proposition, while both the Bimmer and Porsche should see their PHEV share increase in the next few months, leaving the Touareg and the Q8 as the only unplugged models.

For how long, Volkswagen? 

12 comments:

  1. Any news on the EQC in its home market?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EQC with 73 in September

      Delete
    2. 73 units.

      I wonder when will Mercedes seriously ramp up numbers...I mean, the just revealed Porsche Taycan already registered 78 units in September! How hard can it be?!?!?

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    3. ramp up is planned from November onwards...

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    4. Jose, I imagine they're waiting for 2020 to ramp up those numbers, gotta squeeze as much profit from their ICE vehicles as possible before the stricter fleet emission targets come into effect, while pushing back plug-in sales so they can more easily hit those emissions targets in 2020/21.

      Delete
    5. Fun thing is, I actually saw an EQC not far from my place a last week... One of the select 73? ;-)

      (Indeed I saw one a couple of months ago around the corner -- but that one was clearly a demonstration unit, with stickers and all... That same week, I also saw a new Soul, also with stickers, in roughly the same spot; and even an ix35 FCEV(!) unicorn... Still wondering what that was all about.)

      Delete
    6. Thank you all for the input, it helps to understand better the current status of the EQC.

      Delete
  2. It should be noted that there used to be a PHEV GLC before WLTP -- and it was regularly figuring among best sellers in many European markets...

    Is there a refreshed variant in the pipeline? Or is Mercedes betting entirely on the EQC now?...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Looking two years back (before the WLTP-related pull-forward and slump), PHEV sales roughly doubled. An excellent result -- though still eclipsed by BEVs roughly tripling over the same time period... And that's despite PHEVs (unfairly) getting almost the same incentives, following the German auto industry's wishes...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Notwithstanding the great performance from Tesla (Model 3 registrations), the Volkswagen Group still manages to keep hold the 3rd spot in the ranking, no doubt due to the good sales rates of his 2 top BEV nameplates, the e-Golf and e-tron.

    From the posted data, Q32019 standings are:

    1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 16065 vehicles
    2nd BMW Group with 15298 vehicles
    3rd Volkswagen Group with 8652 vehicles
    4th Tesla with 8468 vehicles
    5th Daimler with 7310 vehicles

    ReplyDelete
  5. Goodness, Germany is providing the much needed boost to EVs when its going down in China and USA, the top-2 markets
    With VW Id set for launch only in spring 2020, market could be helped by increasing sales of existing models.
    Model-3 has provided the biggest increase.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Last I heard, ID.3 is no longer scheduled to begin deliveries before summer 2020?

      Delete