Friday, January 31, 2020

Global Top 20 - December 2019

Resultado de imagem para tesla model 3 lot

Models: Tesla Model 3 celebrates its 2nd Best Seller award in a recovering December

There were some 279.000 registrations in the last month of the year, that represented the third best month ever, and despite a 4% drop YoY, it wasn't as bad as previously feared, in fact BEVs had their first positive month since August, having registered 374 more units than in December 2018. On the other hand, PHEVs crashed once again in December, dropping 19% YoY... 

This recovering performance helped the yearly tally to remain positive, crossing the 2 million plugins mark, to 2,2 millions (up 10% YoY), and placing the final 2019 global PEV share, at 2,5% share, up from 2,1 in 2018.


Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have grown their share by 5% in 2019, to 74% of the total market (81% in December), mostly thanks to China and the Model 3, making this the highest BEV share since 1411 2011! 

In December the question at the top was knowing if the Bronze Medal would change hands, and in deed it did, with the Nissan Leaf overcoming the BYD Yuan EV in the last stage of the race, both far behind the Silver Medalist BAIC EU-Series, only the second EV to score a six-digit result in a year, but even the Beijing Auto electric sedan pales next to this year winner, the Tesla Model 3, that celebrated its second trophy in a row by setting yet another all-time record, by delivering over 53,000 units last month, more than doubling the 2018 score.

Despite winning the Bronze Medal, Nissan should be worried about the Leaf performance, as sales were down 20% regarding the previous year, and this happens in a year where the Japanese hatchback received a new 62 kWh battery...

...So either Nissan drops the Leaf prices this year, or else the veteran model will see its sales crash even further. It's up to you, Nissan. 

In a recovery month, there was a lot to talk about, not only the Tesla Model 3 scored a new all-time monthly record, but also the #2 BAIC EU-Series reached a new Personal Best, being the first non-Tesla to make more than 20.000 units in one month.

But it was on the second half of the table that we saw some action, with the Tesla Model X climbing one position to 11th, thanks to 5,869 units in December, its best performance of the year, with the Chery eQ also profiting from a slow month of the Toyota Prius PHEV, to reach #12

As for the remaining ranking, the veteran VW e-Golf ended the year on high note, climbing to #14, while the SAIC Ei5 EV Station Wagon was up two spots, to #17.

But the Surprise of the Month was the GAC Aion S finally reaching the Top 20, landing in #16 securing its status of Rookie Of The Year. How high will it go in 2020? I wouldn't be surprised if it got inside the Top 5...

But there were also models shining outside the Top 20, the third model to hit a 5-digit score last month was the BAIC EC-Series, with 11.409 units, allowing it to jump to #21, less than 1.000 units behind the #20 Tesla Model S.

The SAIC MG eZS EV scored 6.135 units, the #22 VW Passat GTE and the #23 Audi e-Tron hit record performances in December, allowing them to end less than 3.000 units from a Top 20 spot.

Seeing the #20 Model S sales drop 42% YoY in 2019, and already having problems in keeping a Top 20 spot, Tesla REALLY needs to do something to its flagship car this year...If that doesn't happen, the Audi e-Tron will surely outsell it, and we could even see the niche Porsche Taycan surpass it sometime in 2020!

And the Model X could benefit from fresh blood too, as its sales dropped 20% last year. Just a thought, Tesla...

On the other hand, there were a few models that progressed significantly in 2019, like the SAIC's Baojun E-Series, that came out of obscurity straight into #5, the Hyundai Kona EV, that joined the ranking this year in #9,  and it could aspire to higher standings in 2020, if Hyundai can get more battery volumes, allowing it to finally ramp up production to meet the chronical waiting list of its crossover.





Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
Best Selling EV maker in the World


Manufacturers: Tesla repeats the trophy


After a race that seemed like a walk in the park, Tesla has won once again the Best Selling PEV maker trophy, with 366.000 units, winning with over 100.000 units advantage over the #2 BYD, with the Californian brand score a new all-time record in December (63.000 units), just to put the icing on the cake

BYD was only #7 in December, but its advantage over the competition was more than enough to secure the runner-up status (again), while the #3 BAIC scored the best monthly performance ever for a EV maker that doesn't have a "T" in its logo, with over 36.000 units in December, making sure that it kept the Bronze Medal away from the grubby hands of the #4 SAIC, that by the way, also scored a record performance last month, with over 18.000 units.

Funny enough, the #5 BMW (16k) and #6 Volkswagen (14k) also had their best months ever in December, allowing this last one to jump two positions last month, making it one of the manufacturers that most progress had in 2019.

Looking into 2020, if Tesla is set to repeat the title, there will be plenty of interesting stuff happening below it...BAIC and SAIC should continue with ambitious plans, while BYD will be betting in resuming the growth path and Volkswagen will not only become the leading legacy brand, but will also try to run along the Chinese Big 3, and let's not forget a few dark horses (Hyundai, GAC…) that could bet in the way of the favorites! 

Coming down to the second half of the ranking, both #13 Renault and #16 Volvo broke their personal records in December, while GAC continued its rise and rise, now in #15, hitting a record 10.638 units in December.

Dongfeng had a personal best performance of 11.408 units, allowing it to jump into the Top 20 and reach #18. 

The rise of Dongfeng to the Top 20 kicked out Chevrolet from the table, with the American brand ending in #21, just a few units ahead of the #22 Audi, that scored a record 7.807 units in December and allowed it to end the year some 500 units behind the #20 JAC, in what can only be seen as good sign for the Ingolstadt brand, will we see it on the Top 20 a year from now?

Comparing the 2019 performances with the previous year, we can see some makers in trouble (Nissan was down 17%, Chery, 26%, JAC, 30%), while others are in stark progression, like Kia (+43% YoY), Hyundai (+38%), or Volvo (+31%). 



33 comments:

  1. Both Tesla and the VW GROUP (incl Audi, Porsche, etc) announced a target of exactly 500k BEVs for 2020 - very curious who makes the race!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wait, what??? 500k for VW Group?!? In 2020?!? Now that's ambitious!

      I am not saying it's impossible, but that would be tripling production YoY…

      I believe even doubling production (300k) would already be great, although i i'd love to be proven wrong!...

      Delete
    2. Yes, that's what they officially communicated. In it's BEV only, so PEV is even higher. Roughly half of it for Europe btw

      Delete
    3. VW promise to break everyone in the e-car market since 2013.They themselves should be funny.

      Delete
    4. Can you have a link to this official target? I only saw this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2019/09/25/volkswagen-leads-auto-electrification-but-buyers-may-be-elusive/#182aedc5529f.
      In this, we can see a 500.00 target across all VW brands for 2022, 300.00 of them in Europe.
      There was recently other target like 1 million cars in 2023 and 1,5 million in 2025.
      In 2018, they made a more realistic target of 150.000 BEV cars sales in 2020.
      José, can you confirm the all VW brands sales in 2019, BEV and PHEV? Thanks.

      Delete
    5. https://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/investorrelation/publications/presentations/2019/12_december/2019-12-09_Evercore_RS_Ldn.pdf

      Check out this presentation, the latest I found,though they put targets as % of total sales.

      I guess time will tell if that's more realistic than 150k, or if they will miss, because 2013 they said something they didn't follow up on.

      I think it will be a very close one this year for the PEV crown at least.

      Got my popcorn ready to watch the market and your reactions! Let's see what is going to happen

      Delete
    6. Beside the VW claim almost certainly being fake news (most likely mixed up years), Tesla actually said they should be able to "comfortably exceed" 500,000 in 2020... And frankly, anything that doesn't "comfortably exceed" that figure would be quite a disappointment. I'm actually counting on something between 550,000 and 600,000...

      Delete
    7. @Flow that's a very interesting presentation... But your numbers do not add up: ~4% of ~10.8 million is not 500,000.

      ~430,000 still sounds ambitious -- but certainly more realistic. Between planned 150,000 MEB-based cars, ~50,000 e-tron, >20,000 Taycan, some final e-Golf production, the various locally produced e-Golf derivatives in China, and the e-Up! family, I guess it might end up thereabouts... Assuming everything goes according to plan, of course.

      Delete
    8. I believe Tesla should end 2020 somewhere above 550k.

      Delete
  2. Hi Jose, will you be posting your usual table showing the numbers by manufacturer for Dec and 2019? Regards Matt Bohlsen

    ReplyDelete
  3. Caro José Pontes, muito obrigado pelo seu trabalho neste blog, tem sido uma fonte de informação excelente, muito pertinente.
    Parabéns!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Madan RajanJanuary 31, 2020

    Congratulations Team Tesla. Model-3 sales of 300 075 and total sales of 367 820 with 1 model in #1 and other 2 in #11 & #20 is really impressive.

    Tesla Model-3 cumulative sales increases to 448 419 units while that of Nissan Leaf is 457 316 which is a lead of 8 897 units for Leaf.
    By now, in 2020-01, Tesla at worst should have sold at least 18 000 Model-3 while Nissan at best would have sold 6 000 units.

    This means Model-3 has become the SALES CHAMPION - #1 among electric vehicles.
    Praise to the new leader.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tesla: "Due to ramp of Model 3 in Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont, production will likely outpace deliveries this year."Very strange declaration.

      Delete
    2. After Tesla sold out virtually all inventory at the end of 2019, I seriously doubt they delivered anything close to 18,000 Model 3 in January... Probably will have to wait a few more weeks to beat the Leaf :-)

      Delete
    3. Not strange, but becoming like other car-makers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW;
      Can you see, going down the page, production and sales figures of BMW and Mini, most of the time production is above sales numbers...

      Delete
  5. Madan RajanJanuary 31, 2020

    No way, VW will triple the sales to 500 000. They talk more, do less. The whole reason they are throwing this 500 000 # to discourage people from buying Tesla and to make everyone wait, and wait, and wait forever.
    Why would they start the production of ID3 on 2019-11-04 and wait for more than 7 months later and sell only in 2020 summer which means 2020-06-20. Even if they start selling ID3 tomorrow, they cannot sell that many units even with Audi, Porsche and other makes combined.
    But VW loves Diesel, and they are not going to give up on that fuel and the engine.
    MB is similar company, thats why they are selling diesel plugin, otherwise they could have just increased the battery size and range in place of heavier diesel engine.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can we please stop with the conspiracy theories? ID.3 sales are delayed because the software isn't finished. And VW is *definitely* giving up on Diesel (and other combustion cars) -- though not immediately... More than any other legacy CEOs, Diess seems to fully understand that combustion cars will be history pretty soon.

      I very much doubt VW actually threw out a 500,000 figure for 2020. They simply don't have the production capacity in place yet for that. (Seems realistic for 2021, though...)

      Delete
  6. Madan RajanJanuary 31, 2020

    The 279 214 sales is the highest of this year despite drastic subsidy cuts in China and USA.
    2019 has become new #1 among the years with sales of 2 209 831.

    This takes the worldwide cumulative sales to 7,4 million +. This is only for light duty plugin vehicles. Including heavy duty vehicles will take it to 8,5 million +. Then there are 5 million + low speed EVs in China and 1,5 million electric rickshaws in India.
    So worldwide electric vehicle count is 15 million, not far behind the worldwide hybrid vehicle total of some 20 million.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Numbers reported here for Tesla, do not add up.
    Tesla reported S/X deliveries: 66771 units
    Tesla reported 3 deliveries: 300885 units

    written by Looney Tunes

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes but it is easy to correct the charts with improving Tesla 3 with some 800 + and take some 1.000 sales from Model X.
      And since we spoke about these updated official figures from Tesla, the Brand's chart could be correct putting Tesla with 367.606 sales figure which is the somme of the two you put, instead of 367.820 in José's chart.

      Delete
    2. Which interesting to note, putting side by side these two charts with the same ones of December 2018, is Tesla going up from a 12% market share to a 17%.
      For the other brands below, we can note a slightly improvement of 2.000 cars to BYD and a slightly slipping of almost 5.000 cars to BAIC (the cut on Chinese rebates should be the cause of that).
      Out of the podium, BMW did almost the same but lost a position to SAIC.
      We can see also Nissan going down, as his (still) partner Renault, and Chery, as other went up as VW, Geely, Volvo and other Chinese and Korean brands.
      With the beginning of the production of Gigafactory Shanghai and the production of the Y in Fremont, I think Tesla could even going further in gaining market share this year.
      In 2021, Tesla will surely lost a part of its market share but should comfortably stay at the first place of the podium.

      Delete
    3. While I think Tesla could grow by 50% or more in 2020, I believe the global market will also grow >50%... So market share is not likely to improve.

      Delete
  8. The results of the year are very,very sad.

    ReplyDelete
  9. With all the new entrants this year, I'm not sure the Kona will actually end up rising much in the ranking, even if they indeed crank up production...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Any bets on where Model Y will end up in the 2020 ranking?...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I guess some 150k units by year end should grant it a Top 5 spot

      Delete
    2. Now that's not a very daring bet... ;-)

      While I still doubt they will actually produce much more than some 100,000 units this year, that should certainly be enough for a placement in the top 5. Depending on how much the Chinese market concentrates around some individual models this time around, Model Y could very well get bronze or even silver I'd say... (With 150,000 for the year it should be almost certain.)

      Delete
  11. And where is Renault K-Ze? I know they sold above 1000 of it in China in December.

    ReplyDelete
  12. 53K for the Model 3 in December alone globally should mean that the Model 3 should be somewhere around the 12th best selling vehicle of all cars in the world for the month (though not the year.)

    ReplyDelete
  13. The Brands Total for 2019 seems to be off. If you add all the lines it should be 2,577,61. It seems the 367,820 were not counted towards the total.

    ReplyDelete