Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Netherlands December 2019

Resultado de imagem para tesla model 3 netherlands


Tesla Model 3 shatters all records in historic month 

December had an amazing 22,983 plugin registrations, a three-fold increase regarding the same month last year, finally beating one of the oldest records in modern EV history, the 15,879 units of December 2016.

This historic result translated into a Norway-like 54% PEV share last month, pulling the 2019 plugin share to 15% (6% in 2018), an awesome result that places this market with the 3rd highest plugin share in the world, only behind Norway and Iceland, but this share gains even another dimension when we realise that BEVs represented 93% of registrations in 2019, and 99%(!) in December alone.

Of course, the higher taxation of BEVs in 2020 is the major reason for this disruption, but after the usual sales hangover in Q1 2020, something this market is used to, expect things to pick up again around Q2/Q3, ending 2020 with another great result, pulling the plugin share well above the 20% mark.

Back to December, this great market performance was the result of a perfect storm of peak results (of the 15 BEV models in the Top 20, 11 had record scores, and 3 did Year Best results), but the main reason for this historic result is the exceptional performance of the Tesla Model 3, that delivered 12,053 units in December alone, which is not only the midsizer best result outside its domestic market, but also a new monthly all-time best for the Dutch market, all models included.

Needless to say, the Model 3 was by far December's best selling nameplate in the overall market, but what is truly amazing, is that last month, the top 6 best selling models were all BEV! How long will it take for the yearly ranking to look like this?

Besides the aforementioned Tesla Model 3 win, in December the runner-up spot went to the Audi e-Tron, with 3,054 units, where the recently launched "50" version represented the majority of sales, the Nissan Leaf reached the last place of the podium, with 1,075 units, while its French cousin, the heavily revised Renault Zoe, ended the month in 4th, with 1,020 units.    

Finally, SAIC's MG ZS EV jumped to 5th in December, with 967 registrations, by far the best result ever by a Chinese plugin outside their home market, and after a three-digit performance in the UK in November, the MG model is the first Chinese EV to be delivered in significant amounts in mainland Europe. A sign of things to come?

Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
12.053
2
Audi e-Tron
3.054
3
Nissan Leaf
1.075
4
Renault Zoe
1.020
5
SAIC MG ZS EV
967

Looking at the 2019 ranking, the two major news are the 45%(!) share of the leader Tesla Model 3, not only became the #1 Best Seller among plugins, but also overall, and with a score (29,922) that was the largest annual volume since the 31,641 units of the Opel Astra, way back in 2000. December's Climber of the Month was the Audi e-Tron, that jumped 7 positions, straight into the 3rd spot, removing the Nissan Leaf from the podium and preventing the Japanese hatchback from repeating the previous year Bronze Medal. 

Other last minute changes were the Renault Zoe climbing to #8, repeating its positioning in the 2018 ranking, the MG ZS EV joined the ranking in the last month of the year, ending 2019 in #11, while the Jaguar i-Pace climbed two spots, to #13, while the most expensive Teslas also took the opportunity to climb some positions, with the Model S jumping 3 positions, to #14, and the Model X was up to #16.

These last three models were the highlights of the previous sales peak, that happened a year ago, when expensive BEVs lost a large chunk of company car incentives, now their numbers were a fraction of last year, but still, there are differences, with the i-Pace retaining 22% of last year sales, the Model X got 16% of the 2018 score, while the Model S was the one that fared worse, having just 9% of last year sales...Ouch.  

On the other hand, the Hyundai Kona EV had a great year, jumping from the 11th spot of 2018 straight into Second Place, with 5,526 units, that could have been even more, had Hyundai managed to get more batteries...Better luck in 2020?

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV repeated last year Best Selling PHEV, but this time with a respectable 1,849 units, almost tripling last year result, an impressive performance, considering that it doesn't have significant incentives.  

In fact, despite the lack of incentives, the plugin hybrid category is growing organically, with the 2019 score of 4,931 units being its best year since 2016, when they lost access to incentives, and it wasn't only the Outlander PHEV contributing to this growth, as the #19 BMW 530e grew 53% YoY, the #18 Volvo XC90 PHEV saw its sales jump 163% YoY, to 337 units, its best year since 2016, or the new Volvo S/V60 PHEV registered 462 units, the best result in 4 years for the Swedish midsizer.

So yes, there is a place for plugin hybrids in the market, even without access to incentives. Having said that, expect the BEV rise to continue in 2020, with possibly only the Mitsubishi SUV resisting to the blue wave in the Top 20.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (47%, up 4%) won its 3rd consecutive title, with Hyundai (10%, down 4%) winning the Silver medal and Audi stealing the Bronze Medal in the last minute, overrunning Kia, that dropped to 4th.

Finally, a preview of the 2020 Best Seller race. How will it go? Despite the Tesla Model 3 and Audi e-Tron continuing to be hot sellers, with 45,000€-plus EVs losing part of their fiscal incentives, expect smaller sized BEVs to gain significant ground, like the Renault Zoe or the  BMW i3. Should Hyundai get more batteries this year, the Kona EV could have a shot at keeping its Silver Medal, and the same can be said about Kia and its #5 Niro EV.

With the aging VW e-Golf and Nissan Leaf being unable to improve on their 2019 result, and the Opel Ampera-e expected to be euthanized by PSA during the year, the MG ZS EV and the long list of pure electric models (VW ID.3, Peugeot 208/2008 EV, Opel Corsa EV...)  set to land this year will have lots of vacant places to fill in 2020.  





Overall Ranking

Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
29,922
2
VW Polo
12,920
3
Ford Focus
10,478
4
VW Golf
9,263
5
Kia Niro
9,253

You might have read plenty of articles about how the Tesla Model 3 is kicking ass butts in The Netherlands, but to what extent is that showing in the overall market? 

Well, it's not only by far the Best Selling Plugin in the country, but also in the overall market, where the Tesla midsizer more than doubled the result of the #2 VW Polo.

Interestingly, in the Top 5 there are two more electrified models, with the VW Golf (35% BEV) in #4, and the Kia Niro (39% BEV, 1% PHEV, 60% HEV) in #5. Not bad, uh?


Midsize Car Best Sellers

Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
29,922
2
BMW 3-Series
5,088
3
Volvo S/V60
4,235
4
Mercedes C-Class
2,858
5
Audi A4
1,819

The Tesla Model 3 is the undisputed leader in the midsize car segment, with the recently electrified BMW 3-Series (4% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) in Second, but far, far, FAR, behind. 

The Volvo twins S/V60 are in 3rd, with 11% of sales belonging to their PHEV versions, which in isolation doesn't sound great, until you see the others...

Outside the podium, we have the unplugged Mercedes C-Class and Audi A4 outside the podium,  and while Mercedes doesn't seem interested in launching their PHEV versions here, that could soon change if the upcoming PHEV midsizers (VW Passat GTE, Skoda Superb PHEV, Peugeot 508 PHEV...) start to gain traction. I wouln't be surprised if sometime in the first half of next year, all of the Top 5 became electrified.


Midsize SUV Best Sellers

Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
Mitsubishi Outlander
1,931
2
Volvo XC60
1,697
3
BMW X3
1,104
4
Mercedes GLC
958
5
Jaguar i-Pace
769

This SUV category is being quickly electrified, although we still have two unplugged models, the Mercedes GLC and the BMW X3the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (96% of all Outlander registrations) was the Best Seller of the category, with the electrified Volvo XC60 (30% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) in 2nd, with 1,697 units, and the fully electric Jaguar i-Pace closed the Top 5 with 769 units.

With the BMW X3 PHEV said to land soon, and the VW ID.4x, among others, landing throughout the year, we should see a fully electrified Top 5 sometime next year. 


Full size Car Best Sellers
Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
BMW 5-Series
2,422
2
Mercedes E-Class
1,508
3
Volvo S/V90
918
4
Audi A6
880
5
 Tesla Model S
526

In the full size car category, as only the fully electric Tesla Model S has a large degree of electrification, while the #1 BMW 5-Series (13% of registrations belong to the PHEV version) and the #3 Volvo S/V90 twins (8%) have a moderate degree of electrification, although it is still better than the Mercedes E-Class, that has less than 1% of electrification rate, or even the Audi A6, that continues 100% unplugged.

The Porsche Taycan  will be a welcome addition to this category...


Full size SUV Best Sellers

Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
Audi e-Tron
4,116
2
BMW X5
779
3
Volvo XC90
576
4
Tesla Model X
463
5
Porsche Cayenne
354

The full size SUV category seems to be the most advanced segment when it comes to electrification, not only we have 2 BEV nameplates in the top 5 positions and a fully electrified Top 5, but the #4 Volvo XC90 already has 59% of its registrations coming from its PHEV version.

Add this to the fact that the #5 BMW X5 is ramping up production of its interesting PHEV version, and the electrification rate should only go higher. And don't forget the incoming Mercedes GLE PHEV, with 100 kms electric range and fast charging is also coming soon!

These are surely welcome news in one of the most polluting vehicle segments.


32 comments:

  1. What a fantastic result!

    2020 should clearly go to the ID 3.

    I think 20% market share is possible, but I expect a significantly higher PHEV share

    What do you guys think?

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    Replies
    1. Considering that neither the e-Golf nor Leaf have been top sellers in the Netherlands thus far, I think the ID.3 might have a hard time reaching the top spot... Though ultimately that depends more than anything on how well Model 3 recovers from the massive pull-forward I guess.

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    2. The ID.3 has the problem of only starting mass deliveries in the Summer, so they will have a hard time to win the yearly title.

      But i believe they will gain a few monthly wins in H2.

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    3. The ID.3 is a much better value proposition than the e-Golf though. Proper purpose built long range EV and more affordable than a Model 3. It will sell. It's just a question of whether they figure out the software issues and when they can bring it to the market in sufficient numbers

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    4. I am aware that ID.3 is *much* better than e-Golf; and I have no doubts that it will sell very well in general... I'm just not sure it will be #1 in the Netherlands specifically, in view of what kinds of EVs have been best-sellers there in the past.

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    5. " The ID.3 is a much better value proposition than the e-Golf though."

      If you can live with the range the E-Golf is sold with 35% rebate in Germany and 22K is a better offer than 32K or 45K

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    6. That's Germany, though. I doubt it's seeing the same kind of discounts in the Netherlands?...

      What's more, I assume the discounted price is not being advertised -- so way fewer people will even consider looking at it in the first place...

      Also, with *much* better range, performance, interior space, infotainment etc., I'm not convinced most people would consider the ID.3 a "worse offer" than even the heavily discounted e-Golf...

      Delete
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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. Yeah,good numbers,but market share BEV beginning 2020-0,4%.Sad and sad given that subsidies remained on most models.

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  4. There is one explanation:big discounts for petrol models after the results of December.

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    Replies
    1. Maarten VinkhuyzenJanuary 08, 2020

      January is normally 150% of the average months.
      Looking at monthly numbers, you don't see the result of that months sales, but the result of production and logistics planning.
      Traditionally, VW has big deliveries in January. Other brands pander less to the Dutch preference to deliveries in the first month of the year.

      After the BEV December rush, most dealers will give priority to FFV deliveries. We really have to wait three months to see any influence on the market in 2020.

      In January and February we only see 2019 sales.

      Delete
  5. It's misleading to say that >45,000 Euro EVs are losing part of the incentives: *all* models do -- and while the step-down for expensive models is larger, they still retain more incentives in absolute terms than models below 45,000. (In contrast to places that -- unfairly -- actually exclude pricier models from incentives...)

    As such, cheaper models will only "gain ground" in the sense they they will lose less ground than the expensive ones...

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    Replies
    1. I said about the same.All the more incomprehensible failure in sales beginning 2020.

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    2. No, that's totally normal and expected. Since everyone knew a step-down in incentives was coming, everyone who wanted to buy an EV made sure to do so before the end of the year. We see the same pattern in every market that has a step-down in incentives. Sales will come back later in the year -- especially towards the end of the year, before the next step-down...

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    3. 0,5% very bad.In 2019 this was not.

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    4. In 2019, the incentive step-down affected only a select few models (Model S, Model X, I-Pace) -- and these models *did* see the expected complete wipe-out at the beginning of the year. This time around, all BEV models are affected.

      Delete
  6. Curious that December generally seems to be a weak month for PHEV sales in the Netherlands... Any idea what could be causing this?

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    Replies
    1. PHEVs are now behaving like regular unplugged models, people wait for January, because that way they have a "2020" vehicle, instead of a "2019"...

      Although a bit absurd, there are many markets where this is a thing, and the Dutch market is one of them.

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    2. @José Pontes.Yeah indeed,this is one of these markets.Thanks for the information.

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  9. Madan RajanJanuary 09, 2020

    Fantastic job Tesla for selling 12.053 Model-3. No wonder, Tesla stock crossed $490/share.

    Surprising that Nissan could sell 1.075 Leafs in such a small country when they could sell only 1.227 units in large market like USA.

    Had Mr. Carlos Ghosn been the chief, Nissan could have sold as many Leafs as Model-3. Today he exposed the rigged justice system of Japan and how he was treated like a criminal. Watch it in youtube if you have time.

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    1. No, the Leaf absolutely could not have sold as many as Model 3. With a half-arsed platform, it costs *way* more than comparable combustion cars, while barely exploiting the possibilities offered by an electric power train. The Model 3 is a *way* more desirable car, totally trouncing any combustion car in the same segment -- and at a price comparable to combustion cars in the same class... It's a game-changer in a way the Leaf never could be.

      Part of that was simply bad positioning of the Leaf: trying to enter the mainstream market when technology and market conditions just weren't there yet... Part of it was a failure to create a true dedicated BEV platform from scratch, instead of just modifying an existing combustion car platform. And part of it was the tepid pace at which they updated the technology over the past years even within the confines of the flawed platform...

      All of these things happened while Ghosn was still in charge. While he always will be remembered for his early EV push, his strategy and commitment unfortunately just wasn't good enough to match his ambitions :-(

      And now it looks like late-comer VW will eat their lunch, with the ID.3 and other MEB-based models being everything the Leaf could have been, but never quite was...

      Delete
  10. Tesla crushes other carmakers in the Netherlands for 2019 with +358,84% deliveries, although at the same time, the aging Model X bottoms and older Model S retracts expressively. This, just some of the most visible consequences that should be expected in highly skewed markets (in this case, tax incentives).
    In spite of all the events taking place during 2019, Kia-Hyundai manages to secure a second place in this market.

    From the published data, 2019 carmaker standings are:

    1st Tesla with 30911 vehicles
    2nd Kia-Hyundai with 10800 vehicles
    3rd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 7857 vehicles
    4th Volkswagen Group with 7382 vehicles
    5th BMW Group with 3171 vehicles

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  11. Great result. Tesla delivers a very attractive product and can deliver in bulk! Great to see them lead the revolution.

    I also hope to see a ramp up in production in 2020 from the legacy automakers, especially VW ID.3, Kia/Hyundai and Peugeot 208 and Opel Corsa electric.

    Besides that the Skoda Citigo eIV was offered at very attractive private lease rates at the end of 2019 and deliveries are expected in march 2020. I sincerely hope the VAG triplets aren't limited production compliance cars. But I fear they are just used for pushing down fleet emissions.

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    Replies
    1. The VAG triplets are not production constrained, for some reason they will stop the production of the ICE variants.

      On the other hand, demand for small city cars in Europe is dropping for a few years now, so do not expect big numbers. Also, FIAT, the big player in that category, is preparing its 500e, to be launched in a few months, which will eat a lot sales in that segment.

      The triplets won't be best sellers, not because of production limits, but because the market forces, the category they where are is smaller than others (#SUV fever) and FIAT is not willing to lose the category leadership.

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    2. Not really. While the Citigo and Mii will not include any ICE versions from now on, the Up! will keep soldiering on with 1.0l gasoline and CNG engines other than electric drive (at least in Europe).

      written by Looney Tunes

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    3. @José I doubt the Fiat 500 really competes with the Up! etc.: apart from being the same size class, they have very little in common as far as I can tell. The Fiat 500 appeals to hipsters, willing to pay a premium for a small but stylish car. The Up! appeals to people who want an affordable practical car...

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    4. I expect the VAG triplets to enter the top 10 with force. It is a breakthrough electric car in that price segment with 260 km WLTP range. At least in the Netherlands I expect it to do very well.

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    5. @Antrik: The Fiat 500 is the 2nd best selling city car in Europe (#1 is the Fiat Panda), with 139k units sold from January to September 2019, while in the same period, the VW Up! sold 62k units, placing it in #5.

      The #3 Toyota Aygo, sold 74k units in the same period, almost half, so there a significant difference between them, as the Fiat 500 appeals to a wider range of people.

      It might be a hipster thing in a few countries, but if you go to Southern Europe, or some Eastern Europe countries, the 500, maybe even more than the Panda, is a very popular vehicle among the younger segment of the population.

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    6. I'm aware that the Fiat 500 is very popular (they are everywhere around here) -- I'm just saying that as far as I can tell, it appeals to a different type of buyer than the Up! (or the Aygo, or the Panda for that matter...), and thus can't really be considered a competitor.

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