Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Norway March 2020

Resultado de imagem para audi e-tron Norway\

Audi e-Tron reigns supreme

Last month, plugins represented three quarters (75%) of the overall Norwegian market, with BEVs alone representing 56% of the total sales, pulling the 2020 PEV share to 70%.

If we add HEVs to the tally, we have 82% of the market already electrified.

As a consequence, Diesel and Gasoline sales are at the lowest ever, with the first at 10% share, while the second is at 8%. It seems pure ICE sales will be extinct long before the 2025 ICE ban...

With theses numbers in mind, i decided to change the Top 20 table, instead of showing the Best Selling plugins, they now show the Top 20 Best Sellers broken down by powertrain, after all, plugins, and BEVs in particular, are now the mainstream choice, with HEVs and ICE models being the "oddball" choice.

And to think the forecast i made for Norway (66% share in 2020) was pretty bold...

Looking at the March model sales by fuel, we have a 100% BEV Top 5, with the best unplugged model showing up only in #7.

The Audi e-Tron won another Best Seller award, its third in a row, with the Tesla Model 3 ending its peak month in 2nd place, with 997 deliveries, while the surprise of the month is the Hyundai Kona EV, finishing the month in #4, with a record 525 registrations, so it seems the Czech-made units are already helping the Korean crossover to reach new highs.

Audi e-Tron
Tesla Model 3
VW e-Golf
Hyundai Kona EV
Nissan Leaf

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the podium remained the same, while below it, there are significant changes, with the Hyundai Kona EV climbing to #4, while the Tesla Model 3 came out of nowhere into #5.

Elsewhere, the Best Selling PHEV is still the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, in #6, with more than double the registrations of its category runner-up, the #12 Volvo XC60 PHEV.

In the unplugged category, the highest standing is the Toyota Corolla Hybrid, in #9, while the only pure ICE model here is the #16 Skoda Octavia, which, by the way, is said to receive a PHEV version soon, so in the near future, we will see a fully electrified Top 20 in Norway..

Back to plugins, in March we have one new entry in the Top 20, the fresh Peugeot 208 EV, that thanks to a record 258 registrations, has finally joined the table, and could cast a shadow over its category leaders, the #7 Renault Zoe and #8 BMW i3.

Outside the Top 20, there's plenty to talk about, we start by mentioning the 228 registrations of the VW e-Up!, its best score since October 2014(!), and if we add all three Bratislava clones (e-Up, Citigo EV, e-Mii), we would get 567 units, which would place them in #4 overall in March. Not bad...Also, with the e-Up! in #21, with 358 registrations, we could see all the triplets in the table soon.

Other models shining are the MG eZS EV, scoring a record 171 deliveries, while the BMW X3 PHEV (146 units) and Volvo XC40 PHEV (133) are also stepping up the pace, just like the Porsche Taycan (95).

Finally, a mention to Mercedes, with the Battery Production Hell apparently a thing of the past, its all-electric EQC registered a record 173 units last month, so expect it to join the table soon, while the Mercedes C300e/de twins registered 99 units, the twins second record performance in a row and a 21 months high for the midsize Mercedes, with the same happening to the new GLC300e (107 units), while the larger GLE350de (53) performed the best score in over 3 years for the big Mercedes.

Looking at the overall manufacturers ranking, Audi remains the leader (12,4%), being followed by Volkswagen (11,7%), with the #3 Toyota (8,8%) is keeping BMW (7,4%), Volvo (6,3%) and Hyundai (6,2%) at bay.


  1. Interesting to see BEVs, Plugins, Hybrids, Gassers combined in 1 chart in Norway. Makes sense. Soon Netherlands, Sweden and other countries may join this list.
    We may need 4 different colors for the vehicle types.
    BEV & FEV (fuelcell vehicle) : Green
    PHEV (including REX) : Blue
    HEV (Full & Mild) : Yellow
    Gasser/Diesel : Red
    For now this color pattern can be applied to all countries with the exclusion of Hybrids & Gassers in other markets where the PEV presence is low. As an when the PEV presence increases to the level like Norway, then Hybrids can be slowly included and finally the Gassers when their sales volume dips to ultralow of around 10%.

    In USA, gassers will never come into this chart because that segment will always hold the Top-20 positions. No worries since the PEV sales of USA is not known to anyone as automakers dont want to reveal. Transparent market: LOL

  2. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 15, 2020

    The market appears to move faster in Europe than I thought in my most optimistic dreams.

  3. @José why does the table show a (useless) percentage for overall total, but not for PEV total?...

    Also, we no longer get an "others" line...

    Other than that, I'm somewhat ambivalent about this change. It's true that the comparison including all power trains is more interesting now in some ways -- but it also means we see less data for actual EVs... (Which was already an increasing problem, with "only" 20 entries in markets where the number of interesting models is way larger...)

    What bothers me more though is the brands ranking: I'm not particularly interested in what place Toyota or VW take in the overall market. It would be more interesting if we were pitting EV-only brands against combustion-only brands: but with most brands having both, such a ranking really doesn't tell us much about the EV market...

    (Basically the same problem as lumping BEV-only makers together with PHEV makers -- only way worse in this case...)

    1. Thanks, will have these comments in mind.

  4. @José the placing for the Yaris doesn't match the numbers...

  5. I wonder how much of the outstanding performance of the e-tron is attributable to pent-up demand (due to most production going to the Netherlands at the end of 2019, as well as introduction of the cheaper variant); and how much is new demand, presumably triggered by huge discounts?...

    1. That's a lot of mediocre EVs being dumped to discerning Norwegians!

      written by Looney Tunes

    2. Somewhat tangential to what I said above: but I realised that it really makes sense that the e-tron sells very well in this specific market, for now. After all, not only is it -- beside the rather niche I-Pace -- still the only medium-to-large-sized non-sedan that's cheaper than the Model X (especially with the alleged large discounts...): but with the various Korean models still being in short supply, it's indeed still the only readily available CUV of *any* size that's cheaper than the Model X...

      (At least from an established maker -- don't know how availability is for the new Chinese entrants.)

      I guess the situation might change quite dramatically, once other models (ID.4, XC40 recharge, Mach E, Model Y, and even Peugeot e-2008) finally become available later this year and the next...

  6. Curious that a large number of models, and also the total, are actually up compared to previous months... Is that just normal seasonality? Or is it possible that previously supply-constrained models are being redirected to this market, since it seems somewhat less affected by the virus than most other European markets?...

    1. Norway's March PEV sales total in 2018 was 8035 according to EV Sales Blog, so growing to 9350 two years later with a lot of new and improved models on the market, along with EU's 2020 emissions requirements adding extra incentives for automakers to sell where they can. This seems like normal seasonal variation, I wonder how much higher those figures could have been if it weren't for the virus - Norway's lockdown doesn't appear to have been that strict, but has still presumably hurt sales a bit.

    2. Don't know how strict it really is: but Tesla at least reportedly had to furlough most of their sales/delivery staff in Norway...

  7. With the dawn of 2020, the Volkswagen Group emerges as the PEV leader in Norway, followed by Kia-Hyundai in 3rd and with Volvo Car having good chances to pass Tesla, that is having a disastrous performance in the market.

    From the posted data, Q12020 standings are:

    1st Volkswagen Group with 6505 vehicles
    2nd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 3584 vehicles
    3rd Kia-Hyundai with 2454 vehicles
    4th Tesla with 1216 vehicles
    5th Volvo Car with 1013 vehicles

    1. Very curious to hear from the community and Jose - 3 months in and several potential best sellers not launched or in ramp up mode still and Tesla already far behind.

      What is happening with Tesla in the market? Will they come back in the next months?

    2. People like variety (Thank God!), so after a diet heavily-based on Tesla, they are experiencing other flavors…

      Although, the Model Y should be a major success here, i would be disappointed if it didn't won the 2021 Best Seller title.

    3. Musk recently mentioned that Switzerland will only get Model Y when the Berlin factory is up -- which presumably applies to all of Europe... Considering that the factory won't start production before mid 2021 at best, it seems unlikely that there will be enough supply to reach the top in 2021.

    4. Considering that -- aside from some short-lived peaks -- Tesla never really dominated the Norwegian market, I don't buy the "variety" argument...

      My best guess is that a vast majority of mainstream buyers just really don't want a sedan?

    5. Makes a lot of sense and I am curious for the Model Y in 2021. There is tons of popular competition starting before it and that might just spread out sales in that segment and potentially hand the best seller trophy to a bit lower end segment?

      In any case Norway is proving to be an interesting market in 2020 and I wonder how representative it is to see legacy OEMs actually taking the majority of growth, once the market reaches a certain PEV penetration. Same tendency in Germany and France this year (though not UK)

    6. People give a *sugar* to diets, they pay attention to rust-proof, and a lot!

    7. @Antrik 1 - I guess it's another "Elon being Elon" decision, as in, stubborn. That decision was already strange before the COVID crisis, because would be giving an extra 6 months advance to the competition, for no particular reason, but keeping that decision after COVID is just dumb, because demand in North America will be cut short significantly, so the Freemont won't be so overwhelmed with demand as previously thought, leaving more space to supply Europe with some volume. I hope in the near future the reality dawns on him and he realizes this.

      @Antrik 2 - True.

    8. I very much doubt it has anything to do with stubbornness. Fremont simply doesn't have the capacity for significant export of Model Y: according to the latest shareholder letter, planned theoretical capacity by end of the year is just 500,000 per year of Model 3 and Model Y combined, vs. previous 350,000 for Model 3 alone. Unless Model 3 sales seriously crash, Model Y output will likely be barely enough to supply the domestic market...

      Sure, the virus is affecting demand -- but it's also affecting production. I'm not at all convinced it will actually result in much excess capacity.

      Also note that even if there is indeed excess capacity at some point, installing the tooling and processes for international variants doesn't make much sense, if it will have to be scrapped again soon, when production in the other factories ramps...

      What's more, experience from China shows that people won't be buying all that many imported cars anyway, when they know that cheaper domestic-made ones will soon become available...

      (As for Elon being stubborn, I don't believe that's really true. From all I have seen thus far, he only refuses to listen to arguments that aren't supported by irrefutable facts...)

    9. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 18, 2020

      @ José
      I don't think it is just "Elon being Elon". The mistake is made a year ago. When Tesla decided to build the Model Y in Fremont and not in Sparks, Nevada.

      I originally understood that they were building a complete extra production line in Fremont. Using space cleared by merging S and X production, removing warehousing functions and using new buildings.

      Now I think the Model 3 line is reconfigured to make both 3 and Y. Extra capacity must come from expanding the line to the elusive 10k/week.

      There are still new markets to introduce the Model 3. I think of South-, East-Europe, Middle East, Latin America. Not large volumes, but with moderate growth in a number of other markets enough to keep Model 3 demand close to current levels.

      With USA demand for Model Y on the level of Model 3 demand, there is not enough production capacity for export to Europe of the Model Y.

      Model Y production in China will start in about 8 months. The production lines in Europe can benefit from the experience gained in Fremont and Shanghai. That is a small solace.

      But Tesla Model Y is late to the party in the most competitive market. That could be an expensive mistake.

    10. Thanks for the input guys, it's always a pleasure to discuss these topics with you.

    11. @Maarten Vinkhuyzen it's more complicated than that... Production doesn't really happen on a single line: rather, it's a succession of distinct processes, each one sliced up in different ways.

      Stamping is almost certainly common for *all* models (including S/X), since there aren't really any distinct requirements -- just needs some additional dies. (Though I don't know whether the existing press has enough capacity, or needs an upgrade...)

      Casting for the Model Y is definitely new, since they need larger machines for the huge new castings. This is most likely in addition to any machines they have had before, since there is likely no reason to get rid of them while they work... Either way, that's in Lathrop I think, not in Fremont?

      Body shop is almost certainly separate for Model Y: despite the similar looks, the Model Y body has a very different construction than Model 3; and AIUI, the configuration of the robots is very specific to the particular steps needed -- so I don't think it would make much sense to attempt any reuse...

      Paint shop is shared for all models. While it looks like they are going to (re-)commission a second one, it will probably not specialise on particular models, since there is little to be gained from that in my understanding. If anything, they might specialise on particular colours?...

      Body/skateboard marriage is almost certainly separate, as that seems very specific to the geometry of every model; and it has been the biggest bottleneck for Model 3 at one point. Also, from the released videos, it appears that the process in Shanghai is more manual -- suggesting that automating it in Fremont wasn't really worth the effort... So probably they will want to keep it more manual for new models in Fremont as well.

      The biggest question mark I think is general assembly. Given that the two models have almost the same components, it shouldn't be too hard to assemble them on the same line. On the other hand, the different geometry and other remaining differences might pose a challenge for the more automated GA3, so that might remain exclusive to the Model 3 -- while for the more manual GA4, it shouldn't really be a problem to do both. Additional lines will be necessary for larger total capacity: but these will likely also be shared.

      From a bigger-picture perspective, I don't believe that the decision to share or not share particular parts of the production process is relevant to total capacity: bottlenecks at any point can be remedied with additional lines as needed. Only real limitations are total space and logistics.

      Was it a mistake to expand in Fremont rather than Nevada? I don't think so. Keep in mind that the real bottleneck is battery production capacity. Adding any other production in Nevada would only execarbate the shortage of skilled workforce there...

      Also, as I argued before, I don't believe being a few months "late to the party" really matters. Sure, it might lose them some impatient potential customers -- but it won't affect long-term demand or growth trajectory.

  8. Wow... Model 3 in fifth? Very surprising.
    Kona is already shafting Model 3.

    1. Did you say "Kona is already shafting Model 3."
      Refresh the same webpage and see today.
      Model-3 has sold 2.415 units in Mar and 3.939 units in YTD in Korea to become #1 and push Kona behind. Hyundai/Kia cannot dillydally anymore in their own home turf.

      This leaves Japan as the only country which is still not buying Model-3. Highly nationalistic people who dont buy foreign products.

    2. Yeah, teslaratis are already lubing Model 3, hi hi hi