Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Global Top 20 March 2020

Large fleet of Tesla Model 3 EVs seen at SF Port for international ...
Boatloads of Model 3 were delivered last month

Models: Tesla and the Chinese shine

After a glimmer of hope in February, registrations went back to red in March, dropping 15% YoY, to some 192.000 units, while the YTD numbers are now down 6% regarding the same period last year, with 460.000 registrations

Of course, these numbers will no doubt look good, compared to what we will see in the next couple of months, as the current Covid pandemic is sure to drag sales down to a hole, but for now, things aren't that bad, with the March PEV share at 2,5%, pulling the 2020 plugin share to 2%.

BEVs grew faster than the plugin average, allowing them to have 74% of the market (67% YTD), getting in line with the 74% share of last year. 

With the Chinese EV market recovering in March, the highest standing Chinese EV is now the BYD Qin Pro EV, that joined the table in #10, thanks to a record 5.271 units, with its arch-rival BAIC EU-Series also re-joining the Top 20, in #14, while the export-friendly MG eZS EV jumped to #11, and expect other models to join in the next couple of months, although it might not reach the numbers we had by this time last year, when we had 10 Chinese EVs in the Top 20...

In other news, the leader Tesla Model 3 extended its lead, thanks to a near-record 48.788 units, while the unbreakable Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV climbed one position, to #4, thanks to 4.410 units, its best score in 6 months, extending its lead in the plugin hybrid category.

Other models on the rise are the Audi e-Tron jumping to #6, thanks to a year best 4.377 units performance, stealing the Best Selling Luxury plugin title from the BMW 530e/Le, while the Tesla Model X returned to the table, in #16.  

But the most highly expected Tesla vehicle right now is the Model Y, that landed last month, and with some 5.000 units right on its first month, we can confirm that slow ramp ups are now a thing of Tesla's past.

As for the remaining ranking, 3 of the 6 PHEVs in this Top 20 are in the last places of the table, so with the imminent rise of several Chinese EVs to the Top 20, we could witness soon just 3 plugin hybrids in the table. 

Outside the Top 20, a mention for the surprising Mini Cooper EV, that registered 1.440 units in its first full sales month, a positive start for the electric hot hatch.

Manufacturers: Tesla and the Chinese shine

March saw Tesla secure the leadership gor good, winning a 50.000 units lead over the runner-up BMW, growing 40% YoY so far this year. 

Others also grew significantly this quarter, like Volvo (+49%), or Renault (+82%), while
the the Volkswagen Group (VAG) continues to recover the years lost, with the #3 Volkswagen growing 59% YoY, while Audi's rise and rise continues, having jumped 3 spots last month, to #8, thanks to 7.246 units, it's best score so far, with VAG keeping 4 brands(!) in the Top 20, besides the #3 Volkswagen, we have Audi in #11, Porsche in #18 and in #19 we have Skoda...

But the real news are the Chinese brands recovery, with BYD, #2 in March, shooting 8 spots to 4th, SAIC was up to #6, while BAIC jumped to #15, and while these positions are still far from their standings a year ago (BYD was #1, SAIC was #3 and BAIC #4), the next couple of months should witness a continue improvement, so much so that BYD could reach the runner-up spot by May, while SAIC could be #4 and BAIC #6 around that time. 

Elsewhere, Hyundai climbed to #7, while outside the Top 20, the Mini brand profited from the Mini Cooper EV sales to climb a few positions, being now less than 500 units (5.592 units in total) from the Top 20.


  1. @Jose, are the Netherlands, Norway and Spain the only markets worldwide that update their registration databases more than once a month?

    1. Basically. There are a few others, like Iceland, but among the larger ones, these are the only ones.

    2. Can you please share a link to the Iceland database and where to click on? What other markets do you mean besides Iceland? I am an investor in the lithium space and I'd like to track developments regarding EV sales as much in realtime as possible.

    3. please send me an email:

  2. @Jose Pontes : Did you say that Tesla Model Y sold 5.000 units in its 1st month.
    Then I owe you a candy / chocolate.

    192.380 is a massive # amidst the coronavirus, subsidy cuts, trade wars.
    YTD: Tesla Model 3 share of 16% and Tesla share of 19% is another big record.
    March: Model 3 share of 25.4%, Model Y share of 2.6%, Model X share of 2.0% is another record.

    BEVs are again in spotlight with 74% share and more models are joining the lineup in China. With March behind, in another 3-6 months we are hoping to see VW ID.3 in the streets. Let the March of BEVs continue.

  3. Per my calc, 7 910 535 light duty PEVs were sold worldwide (cumulative).
    Tesla sold 988 740 (including Roadster).
    Model 3 sold 519 932 units. Model S is close to 300 000. Had it not been for this virus, Tesla would have sold 1 million units and even Model S would have hit 300K mark. Narrow miss. Hope they will achieve in Q2.

    Model S decrease of 32% is still better than more than 40% decrease of many full size saloons (standard & luxury) worldwide. Its in its 9th year with same design. Only change in the latest version is the removal of false grill that was there earlier.

    Nissan Leaf @ #2 has sold 474,391 units.


  4. BEVs hold Top-3, 8 out of top-10 and 14 out of top-20. Tesla is planning to reduce the price by 7-8% in China so that they qualify for the incentive. Great news.
    Nice to see VW moving to decent #3 where it belongs to.
    None of the MB models are in Top-20 though the make itself is in.

    World after Corona is going to be much different from World before Corona as many people will expect the air/water to be cleaner and they know that PEVs can do that.

    In USA, only 18.5% of the electricity came from coal in the 1st 2 months of this year. This is down from 27% in 1st 2 months of 2019. Renewable excluding hydro has increase 12.2% and including hydro raises it to 19.9%. So PEVs here are running on much cleaner fuels. Even China is increasing its share of renewable/nuclear.

    1. Unfortunately, I'm not holding much hope that many people will really change their ways just because they saw a cleaner sky for a couple of weeks... :-(

  5. I wouldn't say 1440 sales of the Mini Cooper SE are particularly "surprising" or "positive"... In fact it's rather abysmal, in light of the (IMHO absurdly high) demand figures that have been stipulated around here.

    Of course at this point that's likely more a result of production ramping than anything; and the general situation right now further obscures visibility into the real potential... If they could say double that number, for about 30,000 sales per year, I'd already call that a very very good result, for what this model offers at its price.

    BTW, it just occurred to me that the Cooper SE might actually be the reason why the i3 is doing so poorly this year: as it provides some in-house competition, with somewhat weaker specs, but at a meaningfully lower price, and in a much more traditional form factor and design...

  6. Again a reminder that while total EV sales are certainly down because of the virus, in terms of market share, it would be *worse* without it. (The obvious reason being the Chinese EV market still not having really recovered from the last incentives step-down...)

  7. At the current rate, the e-tron is not far off the stipulated production capacity of 50,000 per year... And with the upcoming Sportback variant, it might very well reach the reported 70,000 internal goal for both variants. (Though likely not this year...)

    With claims of significant discounts, of course that really only shows that Audi is willing to dump these at any price to achieve the target figures, since they have to, in order to meet emission mandates...

  8. Considering that BYD only slightly outsold BMW in March, it would to have do *much* better in the next two months to catch up to BMW's almost 10,000 units lead... Though given that China is already on the recovery (along with a likely slight pull-forward in demand from the upcoming incentive change?), while global makers are only seeing the full impact in April, this indeed seems plausible.

  9. Tesla makes a small profit in 2020-Q1 with an impressive increase in sales despite a big decrease in worldwide auto market. Under body of Model Y has 2 parts while that of Model 3 has 70 parts. Eventually it will become just 1 part. Cheers and celebrations.

    Toyota sold 15 million hybrid vehicles worldwide. Congratulations Toyota.
    Eventually the company will be forced to sell BEVs as well.

    Hyundai Sonata hybrid saloon comes with solar roof which will cover some range.
    2 box type 5 door vehicles which have longer roof could cover much more area and provide more range if covered with solar panels. I wish Tesla considers this in Model Y/X.

  10. Woldwide deliveries are affected by a slight decline so far, although the impact of the current pandemic will be very significant by the end of the second quarter.

    From the posted data, Q12020 carmaker standings are:

    1st Tesla with 88400 vehicles
    2nd Volkswagen Group with 58366 vehicles
    3rd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 51361 vehicles
    4th Kia-Hyundai with 34832 vehicles
    5th BMW Group with 31889 vehicles

  11. Hi Jose. Maybe you could take a look at the austrian market in march too. In march model 3 won the **first** position in the overall market (the first time?!). I know, it's Corona-Time, but let's see it as a sign!

    1. I will post regarding April.

    2. AnonymousMay 11, 2020

      Yeah, Austria good idea, that's a spanking hot market, unlike Portugal (10), Spain (26) or Norway (75).