Friday, November 6, 2015

Denmark October 2015



All Mighty Tesla
 
With 221 units sold, the Danish EV market grew 46% regarding the same month last year, with the EV Share dropping just a tad to 1,43%, still a significant departure from the 0.88% of last year.

The super-hot Tesla Model S continues in the three digit sales area (113 new Model S), in an unprecedented streak of five times in a row, a performance that has put other EV's far behind, but also Tesla ICE competitors to shame (The Audi A6 sold 82 units last month, the Merc E-Class sold 80 and the BMW 5-Series, only 14...) and the american car is already leading the YTD ranking in their class (959 units for the Model S, vs 876 for the A6, 530 for the E-Class and 280 for the 5-Series)...It seems the Bimmer is feeling the pinch harder than the other two.

Looking elsewhere, there are other facts to mention:  

- The Renault Zoe is experiencing a brilliant recovery (67 units in October, 89 in September), but it might be too late to reach the Third Place, for now in the hands of the Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia twins;

- The Nissan Leaf didn't registered any unit last month, the first time this happens in three years! It looks Danish consumers are all waiting for the 30KWh version...

- There was a (small) surge in the VW e-Golf sales, registering 11 units, its best month ever, and probably due to the dieselgate scandal, with some buyers shifting from diesel to electric. 

Regarding the manufacturers ranking, Tesla if far ahead everyone else, with 39% share (Up 1%), followed by BMW (21%, down 2%) and Nissan (20%, down 1%).

A final mention to Fuel Cell Vehicle sales, there was one new Hyundai ix35 FCEV registered last month, making it 14 YTD, while the Toyota Mirai registered its second unit, making a grand total of 16 FCEV's sold this year.

PlDenmarkOct.     YTD%'14 Pl
1Tesla Model S113959392
2BMW i3 *6518215
3Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia **8371156
4Renault Zoe67259114
5Nissan Leaf
11251
6Volkswagen e-Golf116439
7
8
9
Volkswagen e-Up!
Mercedes C350e e)
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
2
5
1
52
40
26
2
2
1
3
N/A
8
10
11
12
13
Mercedes B-Class ED
Renault Twizy
Mercedes S500e
Citröen Berlingo EV
6



17
14
9
5
1
0
0
 0
12
7
N/A
16
14
14
16
17
17
BMW i8
Renault Kangoo ZE
Kia Soul EV
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Peugeot Partner EV


2

4
4
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
17
14
N/A
N/A
17

TOTAL2212.458100

Source: www.bilimp.dk


*  - 4 Bev + 2 Rex

** - 6 pass + 2 lcv

10 comments:

  1. Tesla should have a strong couple of months to year end, and then drop right off.
    The reason that they did far better than ICE cars in the same class was very high levels of tax on the ICE cars.

    Tesla is costing the treasury a heck of a lot more than other more modest EVs, so they are re-balancing:

    'The Danish tax exemption for BEV’s and FCEV’s has been in place since 2012 and was set to expire by end of 2015. The political negotiations on a possible extension was complicated by the massive sale in Denmark of high-end BEV’s with long range, that due to high battery cost and thus vehicle price indirectly caused a substantial loss of tax revenues.

    The new decided Danish tax regime for BEV’s and FCEV’s is pioneering an alignment with the technology approach of the major car manufacturers. Batteries are targeted for use in smaller vehicles where short range and long charging time is accepted, whereas fuel cells are targeted for larger vehicles where range and fueling time are to match that of gasoline.

    From 2016 BEV’s in Denmark will be taxed depending on the vehicle efficiency and size, thus incentivizing use of batteries in smaller vehicles where shorter range helps to lower the price and thus the loss of tax revenues. The continued exemption of FCEV’s will instead incentivize use of fuel cells for larger vehicles with long range, where cost reduction potential is greater as the high cost and thus loss of tax revenue from a long-range battery is avoided.

    https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/h2-logic-welcomes-danish-extension-of-fuel-cell-electric-vehicle-tax-exemption/

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  2. I think the 5er BMW is soon to be replaced (2016?), which will cause a drop of sales too. Any BMW experts somewhere?

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  3. thank you Jose. Is this biggest European market for FCEV?

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  4. It should be mentioned that the surge now is most likely due to the tax changes in Denmark that will soon take effect. The change will mean a dramatic increase in price for Tesla (think double price) that will mean a almost complete stop in sales when it hits. The tax will hit all electric cars, but will hit hardest at the more expensive end.

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  5. I doubt Denmark will be the biggest market for FCEVs in the near future, although it looks like being an important one.

    The reason for that is that FCEVs are at a similar level of maturity to BEVs five years ago.

    At that time lots of government bodies, quasi government organisations and big companies were buying or leasing a few BEVs to test them and get data prior to larger orders if of course they passed the reliability and so on criteria.

    A lot of infrastructure is going in in the far bigger German market, and to an extent in the UK, and I think that there will be reasonably substantial total orders for FCEVs for these evaluation programs.

    Its a bit chicken and egg with infrastructure too, and although you can get more or less anywhere in Denmark or will be able to shortly on hydrogen the convenience is still a bit limited perhaps for private customers.

    Fleets often have far more regular trips, and can easily assess whether the infrastructure is going to work for them.

    Daimler entering the FCEV market in 2017 should give things quite a shove though.

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  6. I agree with David, the largest volume markets for FCEV's are / will be Germany and the UK, as for market share, i think Denmark will be one of the most important markets to watch.

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  7. I wonder who will pay for the Danish H2 infrastructure. If it is the Danish taxpayer so the excuse of Danish government of losing tax with expensive Tesla model S would be foolish as Tesla is constructing his own supercharger network at his own expense. But the fact that oil industry will supply the H2 for these cars show that the real interest of the Danish Conservatives in this very cleaver move is maintaining the dependency of car owners over oil industry and help future German Brands Fuel Cell cars to compete with Tesla...I hope to be wrong but this move seems to obvious.

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  8. can't wait for November results

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    Replies
    1. I have published an appetizer regarding Denmark and Tesla...

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    2. yum yum

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