Friday, February 5, 2016

2016 Forecasts

Me and my partners from EV Volumes, which  by the way, published some interesting graphs on the last Q4 Europe article, were discussing in this past week how 2016 would be in the EV World, with some forecasts for the main markets and models, and with some EV Sales readers asking for some forecasts here, we decided to put it on paper online and in a year from now we will see how much did we got it right.

2016 Forecasts Jose Roland Viktor
World Total 850.000 850.000 N/A
World #1 BYD Tang Mit. Outlander PHEV N/A
China Total 400.000 350.000 350.000
China #1 BYD Tang BYD Tang BYD Tang
USA Total 175.000 170.000 170.000
USA #1 Chevrolet Volt Chevrolet Volt Tesla Model S
Japan Total 30.000 23.000 38.000
Japan #1 Nissan Leaf Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV
Europe Total 250.000 280.000 280.000
Europe #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV
Netherlands T. 27.500 35.000 35.000
Netherlands #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV
Norway Total 45.000 50.000 50.000
Norway #1 Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf
UK Total 40.000 40.000 45.000
UK #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV
France Total 37.500 42.000 40.000
France #1 Renault Zoe Renault Zoe Renault Zoe
Germany Total 37.500 44.000 35.000
Germany #1 VW Passat GTE Kia Soul EV Kia Soul EV

A few comments, on these numbers, Roland thinks the Outlander PHEV will be the new Global #1, but only if they get the MY17 US launch right. Otherwise he thinks that it's Model S again. 

The same goes in the USA, Roland believes that the Volt will be able to beat the Model S, but isn't 100% sure on that, as a side note, Viktor is optimistic on the Chevy Bolt as he think that it will create an instant impact on the market once it lands later in the year.

Unlike my partners, i think the Nissan Leaf will have a good year in Japan, while Roland is pessimistic on the performance of the Japanese EV market.

Gathering consensus is the fact that The Netherlands will assist a sales slowdown regarding last year, unlike the other large EV markets in Europe.


  1. China: 800,000-1,000,000 passenger +
    800,000-1,000,000 commercial

    Hope to be proven wrong because of beeing too low ! :-)

    160,000 New Energy Vehicles (passenger & commercial) in November + December 2015.
    Probably about half of them are passenger cars: 80,000.
    Probably about 35,000 in November and 45,000 in December.
    Without any growth December x 12 would be about 540,000.
    So 800,000-1,000,000 seems quite reasonable to me.
    We'll see... :-)


  2. Last quarter results are always the best, I am not sure if you can take them as an average over the next year and still assuming this displays no growth. Maybe it would be average with growth already inside. But I would be more than pleased if we would reach these numbers you stated!

    1. Hi Badem.
      Yes, it could be as you said.
      My understanding is that plug-in sales in China are heavily production limited, and therefor they basically sell all they have been able to produce.
      And at least a few automakers are busy increasing production as fast as they can.
      Therefor my hope is that the last quarter "distortion" factor doesn't apply to plug-ins there.
      We'll see...
      January figures should give us a clue.

      Let's hope for the better!


  3. I bet on Renault ZOE for Europe. Currently they set huge incentives for most European markets (~10% in UK, Norway 15-25% in Germany, France, Portugal, Italy). Obviously they want to sell more.

  4. I think you are all very wrong for the Netherlands. The Mit. Outlander PHEV was only popular for tax reasons. In 2016 the tax for plug in hybrids will be much higher. Only BEVs with a price under € 50.000 will keep the low tax. So Tesla probably won't be very popular as well. My best bet is the Nissan Leaf 30kWh, as this is currently the longest range BEV under € 50.000.