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Tesla Model 3 Tsunami (Europe Edition)
The European passenger plug-in market registered a record 60,000 registrations in March, growing 38% regarding the same period last year, a good performance considering the stagnating mainstream market (-4% YoY), and the fact that March ’18 had too been a record month, with 43,378 units.
In March, all-electrics jumped
67% YoY, to a record 40,920 deliveries, having been responsible for 69% of all plugin
sales last month, with the EV share growing to a record 2.4%, while adding
PHEVs to the tally, the share jumps to 3.5%, pulling the 2019 PEV share to a
record 3.1%, already above the 2.5% result of 2018.
The big news in March top
positions was of course the Tesla Model 3 tsunami/avalanche, with a record 15,771 units, but unlike what is
happening in the USA, the blackhole
effect of the Tesla Model 3 is not absorbing sales from other BEVs, but from
directly competing PHEVs and ICE models.
Proof of this is the fact that
with the exception of the Nissan Leaf, all the remaining Top 5 Best Sellers in March
ended the month with positive numbers, which is good news, as it is better to
have a Tesla tide lifting all boats,
than only their own…
Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:
#1 Tesla Model 3 – After years of
impatient waiting, the poster-child for electromobility has finally crossed the
Atlantic in large volumes, and we experienced a sort of Model 3 fever, with the Tesla sedan flooding the
streets of Europe. The 15,771
deliveries of March meant that a new monthly record by a single model was set,
but I wouldn’t say it is historic, because I guess once the SR/SR+ versions
land, we will see another deliveries record. But back at March, where several
markets were flooded with Model 3’s, with the Tesla midsize sedan being
delivered by the thousands in Norway (5,315), Germany (2,224 units), Netherlands
(2,195), France (1,153), Switzerland (1,094) and Sweden (1,005).
#2 Renault Zoe – The 4,361 deliveries in March signaled a symbolic growth for the French
hatchback, with deliveries up only 1% YoY, as the much improved “new” Zoe
(50-60 kWh battery, driving aids, lower price…), and the upcoming Peugeot 208
EV, are starting to dampen sales of the current generation. As for market
individual performances, the Zoe continues as popular as ever in its domestic
market (1,536 units), and there also were positive numbers in Germany (1,136
units, new record),and Norway (344), and the UK (400).
#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Indifferent
to the current doom and gloom of plugin hybrids, and being the only PHEV able
to follow the pace of the Best Selling BEVs, the Japanese SUV had 4,314 registrations in March (up 63%),
the SUV best performance since December ’17, with the Mitsubishi model
continuing to be popular in Scandinavia (642 units in Sweden, 810 in Norway),
but also in Germany (693 units, new record), while in the UK, numbers got close
to 1,000 deliveries. This case study of a PHEV succeeding in a BEV-friendly
environment, has to do with its unique mix of utility, space, decent electric
range (including Chademo fast-charging) and affordability. On the long run, one
wonders how long the Outlander PHEV will resist to the BEV model counter strike,
although, with no direct BEV competitor in the short term, the Mitsubishi model
could still rack up sales this year, without major worries.
#4 Nissan Leaf – Europe’s 2018 Best Seller
was 4th in March, with 3,917
units, down 28% YoY, but fear not, as the new 62 kWh version should start deliveries
soon, allowing the Japanese hatchback to resume the growth path. In March, the main
markets were Norway (618 deliveries), France (455), and the UK, where the
Nissan EV surpassed the 1,000 units.
#5 BMW i3 – The German hot hatch sales
were up 58% in March, to a record 3,632
units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from the age-old formula
“bigger battery = bigger sales”, and apparently not feeling the sting of the
Model 3 arrival. Looking at individual countries, Germany, Norway and the UK
were the main markets in March each with some 700 registrations, while The
Netherlands (258 units), France (207) and Poland (219!), also helped greatly
the BMW nameplate. Looking into 2019, apparently this Star Wars-inspired EV
still has some growth potential in it, so it should continue to be a regular
face in this Top 5.
Looking at the 2019 ranking, the main news was the Tesla Model 3 jumping six spots into the
leadership, and considering the advance it already has, Tesla should start to
prepare the Best Seller party, at the end of the year…
Elsewhere, there
wasn’t much to talk about in the first half of the table, except maybe the fact
that the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, by far the best-selling plugin hybrid in
the ranking, is getting closer to the Bronze medal of the Nissan Leaf. The 62
kWh version is needed sooner than later, if Nissan wants to keep its podium
place.
On the second half
of the table things are more interesting, the Kia Niro EV was up two positions,
to #11, thanks to a record 1,636 deliveries, while two other recent additions
also shined, with the Jaguar i-Pace jumping 3 spots to #12, while the Audi
e-Tron did even better, jumping 4 positions, to #16, thanks to a personal best of
1,791 deliveries.
Underlining the
good moment of Hyundai-Kia and Jaguar-Land Rover in the PEV arena, the first
had the Kia Niro PHEV hitting a four-digit result (1,084 units, best score in
12 months), while the second had the Range Rover Sport PHEV reaching a record
score of 1,004 units. Considering the dismal results that Jaguar-Land Rover are
having in the mainstream market, I guess the path for survival is clear for the
British Group: Go electric, or go broke.
In #20, we see the
Tesla Model S returning to the ranking, a welcome addition, that makes 12 BEVs
in the Top 20. And the Tesla Model X is in #22…
Outside the Top
20, we should notice the good start of the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV, that
with 887 registrations last month, it was the nameplate best score in over 2
years. A Top 20 spot is getting closer every day, for the Swedish station wagon.
Looking at the manufacturers
ranking, we have a new leader, with Tesla (18%, up 10%) now sitting at the iron
throne, while last year winner BMW (12%, down 1%) is now 2nd, followed by Nissan
and Renault, both with 9% share and running for the 3rd spot, while Hyundai
and Mitsubishi are not far behind, with 8%.
As usual José, a very good job! In an other hand, and I hope not asking too much, but would you mind to make a post with March sales (and Q1) for Portugal? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteSorry, not enough time. But i promise you that for April!
DeleteDon't count on SR+ deliveries setting a new monthly record. Tesla announced in the Q1 letter an earnings call that they are going to "unravel the wave" in Q2, i.e. smooth out production/deliveries for all markets throughout the quarter. While they were talking about doing that in the past, it sounds like this time they are serious -- even willing to take a loss in Q2 in exchange for better efficiency in the future.
ReplyDeleteThis won't show yet in April, since the first Q2 ships are only beginning to arrive. However, May and July should see the effect, with the initial European SR+ wave presumably being distributed between these two months. So while Q2 has a good chance of setting another record, individual months might not.
BTW, it's I-PACE or I-Pace, but always with a capital 'I'... (Unlike e-Tron.)
The e-tron quatro is without any capitals.
DeleteThe marketing departments are responsible for this mess.
Looking at the best of the rest.
DeleteIt is telling that two cars waiting for a refresh are best selling.
It takes time to build name recognition and public trust. Probably what explains the still high positions of the i3 and eGolf.
Of the new generation the Jaguar I-Pace is likely at its place for 2019 with 1,500 monthly deliveries. Not that there is no market for more, but the contracted production capacity was rumored to be 20,000/year. Even with an upgrade to 30,000 the rest of the world does want to receive some Jags to.
Th Koreans eNiro, eKona, Ioniq EV have the potential to get into the 2,000+ regions of monthly deliveries. But only if battery production and global sales policies support this.
The Audi e-tron quatro looks to be past the worst of production hell. I expect it to get to 5,000/month production in the second half of this year. Creating a potential for 3,000/m in Europe, 1,000/m in the USA and 1,000/m in the rest of the world.
This BEV assault on the top 10 will leave the Outlander PHEV the sole non BEV in the top. Illustrating that the days of the PHEV are over.
Ironic when seeing the large number of new PHEV coming to market from all European carmakers.
Their logic is that a PHEV powertrain is a lot less expensive than a fully electric one. With the efficiencies of the I-Pace and e-tron as examples, there is some truths in that statement. But I doubt it is enough for a justification.
While it's true that a PHEV power train is still a couple thousands cheaper than a BEV with decent range (at least for large inefficient vehicles), I'm pretty sure that's a minor part of why legacy makers tend to resist BEVs. A more important reason is that with the relatively small batteries in PHEVs, they can get decent results from retrofitting a combustion car platform, instead of creating a dedicated platform from scratch -- which is a must for a really good BEV. And perhaps even more importantly, with a PHEV they can still sell their combustion engines, which is where they see their major competitive advantage -- while switching to BEV means tens of billions in R&D and production equipment becoming obsolete...
DeleteAll good points. Thanks!
DeleteAnd the name/brand recognition is a much forgotten aspect in sales, especially when we are talking about mainstream buyers.
There will be more than 100,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries in Europe in 2019.
ReplyDeleteIt's very likely! We are talking about a unique veichle regarding charging: the only one being able to use both Superchargers and the growing CCS network (including high-speed chargers like those in Ionity and Fastned stations). I think it's the biggest advantage of Model 3 in Europe.
DeleteCombined Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X deliveries in Europe in 2019 will be more than 20,000.
ReplyDeleteMmmm...It will be difficult to achieve that number. I would go with 16k.
DeleteSo far, only one ship have left the US that I'm aware of for Europe with Teslas. So they wont have any import in April, and hardly any import in May. It looks just like last quarter, it does not appear they'll "unravel the wave" this quarter either.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a second one will leave very soon?
DeleteEither way, the fact that ships are leaving at a slower pace is precisely what "unravelling the wave" is about: instead of producing exclusively for overseas markets in the first half of the quarter, they keep making US models as well -- while in the second half of the quarter, they will also keep making international models, rather than only US ones.
As I said, the effect won't show in April -- for that, they would have had to start the unravelling in March already...
You are probably right though that it won't have much impact on May deliveries. Rather, the most visible outcome should be that there won't be a huge deliveries peak in June followed by a slump in July, but rather deliveries should keep going at a more steady pace across quarters...
Looks like rolling 12month worldwide to be ~2.25million on ~84million total.
ReplyDeleteWhen you talk about 'The European passenger market', which territory does this cover?
ReplyDeleteI assume we are not talking about the EU?
Clearly it's not EU only, as it includes Switzerland, and the all-important Norway. Pretty sure it's all of Europe. (Don't know about corner cases Russia or Turkey -- but AFAIK neither of these has an EV market to speak of, for the time being...)
DeleteIt's the whole of Europe, including the debatable cases of Russia and Turkey.
DeleteBasically it's the same countries that are on UEFA, excluding Israel.