Friday, September 6, 2019

Norway August 2019

Resultado de imagem para 2019 e-Golf Norway

VW Shines in August

Last month, BEVs registrations were the lone ray of light (+13%) in a depressing overall market (-17% YoY), due to the last year pre-WLTP deliveries peak, with PHEVs in particular sinking 38% YoY, while BEVs (39%) keep winning significant share (they had 29% a year ago).

But PHEVs weren't alone wasn't the only one dropping share, as regular diesel (19%, down 2% from the 21% of last year) and petrol (19%, down 7% share) kept sliding, with HEVs(!) recovering slightly, to 13% share, thus surpassing their plugged cousins (10% share for PHEVs). 

Looking at the PEV share, August recorded 49% share, 6% below the 55% YTD result, but with September coming soon (ie, Tesla peak), expect that month to surpass the YTD average.


Looking at last month Top Sellers, the VW e-Golf surprised everyone, by registering its best result since 2017, with 1.083 registrations, so despite being in sunset mode, the EV demand is so big that even a model said to be replaced by a much better model (VW ID.3), is able to score four-digit performances…


The Tesla Model 3 was 2nd last month, and with the SR+ versions now being delivered in volume, expect another big peak in Model 3 deliveries in September, with probably another peak in the last month of the year, with the volume arrival of the SR version, meaning that we will only know the organic demand of the midsize sports sedan in Q1 2020...


Complementing the German hatchback brilliant result, the Audi e-Tron scored another Top 5 performance, with 445 registrations, and with the all-electric said to have a cheaper version coming soon, expect it to start collecting regular podium positions.


Looking at the 2019 ranking, the podium positions seem more (Model 3) or less (Leaf) firm, but below it, things are pretty fluid, with the Audi e-Tron climbing one position, to #5, changing places with the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with the German SUV now being the Best Selling SUV in this ranking.

And with the #4 BMW i3 only 42 units ahead, it looks like the Audi nameplate will climb another position soon, especially now that the cheaper 50 version is coming.

Also interesting to follow is the race between the #7 Jaguar i-Pace and #8 Hyundai Kona EV, with only 42 units separating them. With Jaguar reportedly having a hard time to keep demand going for its Sports-SUV, the Korean model could climb one position soon. Assuming that the Korean maker has enough batteries to satisfy demand, of course. But more on that later...

In the lower half of the ranking, the BMW 225xe Act. Tourer climbed one position, to #13, this being the only good news for the PHEV side. 

This month climber surprise was the Opel Ampera-e ("Is this thing still being sold?!?!?" - Apparently. My guess is that it will be bought by PSA to GM until the Corsa EV starts to be delivered…), with the Euro version of the Chevrolet Bolt registering 156 units in August, a new Year Best, allowing it to jump two positions, to #17.

We witness another BEV joining the ranking, in #18, with the VW e-Up! (Hey, remember me?), becoming the 14th BEV in the Top 20, thanks to 167 registrations in August, the nameplate best result in over 4(!) years.

Interestingly, of the 6 resisting PHEVs, 4 are Volvo models…

A final mention to the Kia Niro EV, now sliding to #20, barely keeping its spot in the ranking, with last month performance (11 units) being its worst in its short career. Worse than that, in July, it had only delivered 24 units. With demand said to be strong as ever, why the sudden drop? According to the word on the street, it seems some Hyundai / Kia importers are already running out of units to deliver, and now are only accepting orders for deliveries in 2020...

...When Hyundai-Kia is said to have a much larger volume (as in 2x or 3x as much) of batteries available. Funny enough, it will be when the 95g CO2 rule will be implemented in Europe...Coincidence?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is uncontested leader (26%, down 1%), being followed by Volkswagen (13%, up 1%), while Nissan, Hyundai and BMW, all with 9%, are running neck-to-neck by the last place in the podium. For now the advantage is for the Korean maker.


Models breakdown by Fuel Source


Due to a weak August (BEVs+PHEVs only had 49% share), Toyota managed to place two of its unplugged hybrids in the Top 10, with two VW Group ICE models also showing up here (#6 Skoda Octavia and #8 VW T-Roc).

Nevertheless, the podium remained 100% BEV, while all-electric models continuing to be the majority of models.

There was only one PHEV model here, with the Outlander PHEV climbing to #9, a low position, but with the Japanese SUV almost selling three times as much as the #2 PHEV Volvo XC60 PHEV (129 units), the PHEV fall from grace is pretty clear...

13 comments:

  1. The Volkswagen Group is already managing to transition from ICE to EV volume selling in this market, were historically it has been always successful and selling in high volumes (Beetle, Golf,...). Also, it looks like Norway is the only place in Europe were Tesla still manages to sell all current linup in good volumes (all the 3 models in the Top20).

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  2. I look forward to the time your color coding will become redundant. Already next year all BEV models that are now written in non-bold characters will either have been replaced (e-Golf and, I assume, e-Up) or will have received longer range batteries (Ioniq).

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    1. The next frontier will be 600 kms for BEVs and 100 kms for PHEVs.

      Still thinking how i will highlight these Long Range BEV and PHEVs from the rest.

      Italic?

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  3. Jose,

    Given the climate crisis, I wouldn't call a drop in the overall auto market "depressing".

    We in the wealthy and CO2-overemitting world all need to consume less, and that certainly includes less new ICE cars of all kinds.

    Decrease in the overall market, coupled with increase in EVs to replace the ICE fleet, is the most desirable trend rather than a "depressing" one.

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    1. Exactly! Lower car ownership overall is the goal, with EVs where car ownership is absolutely necessary - but public transport and bikes where possible instead.

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    2. You're right. Will be more cautious next time.

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  4. BEV sales in Norway seem to be climbing strong (39% over 29% YoY). BEVs and HEVs(13%) going up, petrol(19%), diesel(19%) and PHEV (11%) going down. In a decreasing market (-17% YoY) 34,4$% growth of BEVs is more than what we can dream of. I consider the August results very positively.

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  5. The big advantage of the eGolf is that spare parts are plenty available. Any car owner knows that this is the biggest issue for driving. I guess this is also the reason for the big downfall of Model S as the aftersales service of Tesla is poor.

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    1. And that also explains the terrible result of the Model 3, right?... :-P

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    2. Yes. Model 3 is just second. Way behind expectations.

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    3. Uh, no, it has almost double the sales YTD of the second-placed one -- perfectly in line with expectations. José for example estimated 15,000 for the year, which it will likely surpass easily.

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  6. Will be interesting to see whether the cheaper but still premium-priced, while even less capable entry e-tron will see any significant sales...

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  7. Volume deliveries of the Model 3 SR? Don't think that will ever happen... It's only available on special order in the US; and I'm not sure it's even available at all in Europe? Either way, it's niche compared to the much better equipped SR+.

    Having said that, "organic" demand probably won't become clear for several more months just the same...

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