Friday, April 5, 2019

Netherlands March 2019

Resultado de imagem para tesla model 3 netherlands

Tesla Model 3 jumps to #1

After the December deliveries peak, the Dutch PEV market had another sales surge last month, with 4,721 plugin registrations, up 252% YoY, which translates in a PEV Share of 12% in March, and pulls the year to date count to 10,424 units (+224%), with the 2019 PEV share now at 9%, frankly above last year result, if we only consider BEVs, the EV share in March was 10%, or 7.4%, if we consider the 2019 YTD share.

This good market performance was mainly due to the Tesla Model 3, that delivered 2,195 units in March, a new record for any Tesla in the Netherlands, also allowing the Tesla sedan to become last month Best Seller, all fuel categories included, with over 1,000 units of advantage over the #2 Ford Focus (1,187 units). 

Two other recent, long range BEVs, reached the podium, with the Hyundai Kona EV (376 units) and Kia Niro EV (323 units, new personal best) underlining the changing market dynamics. 

Surprisingly, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was also 3rd, with 323 units, being by far the Best Selling PHEV in this market, with the Japanese SUV scoring its best result since December 2016, when it lost the company car fiscal benefits, so even without fiscal incentives, buyers (or should i say, fleet managers?) are back to Mitsubishi dealerships.

Outside the podium, the Nissan Leaf (288 registrations) keeps pumping out decent performances, even with the looming 62 kWh version just a few months away.


Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
2,195
2
Hyundai Kona EV
376
3
Kia Niro EV
323
3
Mit. Outlander PHEV
323
5
Nissan Leaf
288

Looking at the 2019 ranking, we have a new leader, with the Tesla Model 3 jumping to Numero Uno, leaving the previous leader Hyundai Kona EV some 1,500(!) units behind, while on the mainstream market, the Californian is now 5th, only behind the Ford Focus (#1, 3,567 units), VW Golf (#2, 3,506), VW Polo (#3, 3,402) and Kia Picanto (#5, 3,109). 

Will we see the Model 3 end the year in the mainstream podium?

The following positions remained mostly the same, with the only change being the BMW i3 surpassing its Renault Zoe rival, climbing to #7.

Outside the Top 10, the ranking is more dynamic, with the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV jumping six positions, to #12, with the 94 deliveries of March being the nameplate's best result since December 2016.  

After the December deliveries tsunami (2,621 units, best result ever for a BEV), that allowed it to be the #2 last year, the Jaguar i-Pace is back at the ranking, in #19, thanks to 40 deliveries in March.

In the large luxury car class, we have the #15 BMW 530e (33 units, 11% of all 5-Series sales) ahead, but the Porsche Panamera PHEV was up one position to #18, thanks to 35 registrations, the nameplate best result since last August, with the PHEV version representing 77% of all Panamera sales. As for the Model S, it is out of the Top 20, with just 32 units (-96% YoY).

As for Luxury SUVs, the 2019 Best Seller is the Land Rover Range Rover PHEV, with 114 registrations, ahead of the Volvo XC90 PHEV (99 units), but last month the Audi e-Tron registered 40 units and became that month Best Seller, so it won't be a surprise that a few months from now we will see the German SUV not only in the Top 20, but maybe ahead of this category. For the ones asking about the Model X, news are not at all good, with only 22 units this first quarter, down 94% YoY, but more on this below. 

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is the new leader (26%), followed by Hyundai (15%), and Volkswagen (10%) in 3rd.

Just outside the podium, Nissan (9%), Kia and Mitsubishi (both with 8%) are all looking for a chance to jump into a medal spot.




Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition



Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
2,707
2
Volvo S/V60 PHEV
1,462
3
BMW 3-Series
1,031
4
Mercedes C-Class
942
5
Audi A4
529

One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?

The answer is now starting to be written, comparing the first quarter Model 3 deliveries against its midsize premium competitors, we can see that it has managed to kick some Premium ass outrun all of them, although the ICE models behavior differs from one to another, while the Audi A4 registrations sank 47%, and the Mercedes and BMW nameplates stagnated (+2% and +5%, respectively), the Volvo S/V60 twins are up 76%, and its PHEV version is still in ramp up mode, representing just 9% of all sales.

Once the production of the Swede PHEV Wagon is in cruise mode, expect it to be responsible for at least some 20% of the model sales, helping it to run ahead of the Germans, although the revised BMW 330e, said to start selling in the Summer, could help the sports sedan to overcome the Volvo model, in the race for #2.


Large luxury cars, by fuel source


Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
BMW 5-Series ICE
695
2
Mercedes E-Class ICE
340
3
Volvo S/V90 ICE
328
4
Audi A6 ICE
256
5
BMW 530e PHEV
86

With the luxury EVs losing the generous fiscal incentives in January, sales were bound to tank this year, to the profit of ICE models and PHEVs. 

And so it did, while a year ago, the Tesla Model S was in podium seats, disputing the leadership with the BMW 5-Series, sales (32 deliveries) are only a fraction of what they were last year.

Will the Model S recover? I guess we will only know, once the much-awaited refresh has landed.


Large luxury SUVs, by fuel source


Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
BMW X5 ICE
290
2
LR Range Rover
 Sport PHEV
114
3
Volvo XC90 ICE
104
4
Volvo XC90 PHEV
99
5
LR Range 
Rover PHEV
63

With the luxury EVs losing the generous fiscal incentives in January, BEV sales were bound to tank this year, to the profit of ICE models and PHEVs. 

And so it did, while a year ago, the Tesla Model X was dominating front and center this category, this time, with only 22 deliveries, it is far behind the front runners.

Unlike the car category, where ICE is still king, here on behemoth-land, plugin hybrids are having a relevant part, while the leader BMW X5 is all ICE (for now), the runner-up Range Rover Sport PHEV represents 88% of the nameplate sales, while the Volvo XC90 has its sales evenly distributed between the ICE version and the PHEV, and finally, the Range Rover has 76% of all its sales also coming from the PHEV version.

But one can always say that these nameplates weren't affected by the fiscal changes that happened at the end of the year, so it would be natural that they jumped ahead of the Model X.

But what about the 60 Jaguar i-Pace and 42 Audi e-Tron registered so far this year? 

Both had the same fiscal cuts, and yet they are ahead of the Tesla Model X, despite the first being too expensive for what it is, while the second has a poor efficiency, when it comes to range.

I think this is just one symptom of a larger trend regarding the Model S and X, that the Tesla Q1 2019 sales report shed some light on it, while the Model 3 part wasn't surprising, with deliveries up YoY, the fact that the Model S/X were down over 50% is worrying and it is also proof that Tesla demand is finite, after all.

There are several reasons to explain this:

- First, there are fiscal issues (both models lost benefits in the US and NL); 

- Second, there is the long rumoured Q2/Q3 '19 refresh of both nameplates;

- Third, is the fact that Tesla now has competition, something it lacked for several years, and although they are not (yet) at their level, spec-wise, they are good/different enough for many to prefer one of the just landed BEVs, or wait for those that are about arrive, like the much antecipated Porsche Taycan; 

- The fourth reason is specific to the Model S and is called cannibalization, by its slightly smaller, younger and much cheaper Model 3 sibling, that has almost the same range and can charge at a higher rate, being also the ultimate "hot EV" nowadays.

And one final note on the future plans of the Model S, there have been rumours on pulling the Model S upmarket.

I believe it is a mistake, not only because the Mercedes S-Class type of customer would be less inclined to buy a Tesla, but also because it is a limited market (+/- 80,000 units/year for the S-Class), while the lower class has a lot more more room to grow.

With the current Model S sitting somewhere in no man's land, between the E-and-F segments, a bit like the Audi A7, it would be wise for Tesla to go down a little and face the Mercedes E-Class and BMW 5-Series face to face, like the Model 3 is doing in its own category.

But for that, Tesla would need to launch a competitive Standard version of the Model S, with some 300 miles range and selling for about 70-75,000 euro. 

Impossible? Would ruin those models profitability? I have no idea, but one thing i do know: Tesla Model S/X demand limits are now being discovered, and the maker has to decide what it wants to be, either a niche maker, like Porsche, and have high margins in their vehicles, or going after BMW and Mercedes, at the cost of (some) profitability.


13 comments:

  1. At some 91.000 euros in Portugal, the Model S LR with 335 miles of range can't compete with BMW5 or Classe S, futher more with the Model 3 LR with 325 miles at less than 60.000 Euros and its far better charging capacity.
    I think Tesla is letting the actual Model S and Model X versions dying slowly until the remnant 18650 battery cells will ran-over.

    If they want to launch new more competitive, market segment wise, Model S and X , they need more range with less expensive and size wise battery (so, much less expensive car). I think they can achieve that if the new cells battery will be produced in very big volume. So, the cells battery need to be the same than for the Semi and the truck (and maybe the new roadster). It's only this mass production level that could allow Tesla to have a more market segment competitive but still profitable Model S and X, but not with the past 25% to 30% gross margin they had until recently.
    The new cells should be lighter and with more capacity to allow at least 350 miles of range with a battery pack with the actual 100 kWh capacity and it should be at no more than 75.000 Euros here. Then a 125 kWh pack should allow at least a range of 425 miles to differentiate it self from other big EV cars at sell in the next two or three years.
    But maybe they will prefer another strategy and they will go to differentiate far more from others and the actual 325 miles Model 3 LR, with going directly to a 420 miles and a 500 miles range Model S and a 380 and 460 miles Model X, giving priority on gross margin and exceptional range capacity comparing to other big premium car makers (when you see that the Audi E-Tron has just 206 EPA miles of range, this would be a big difference, the same that Tesla had when they introduced the S in 2012 and the X in 2015).

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  2. With fiscal benefits gone, isn't it more likely that most PHEV demand now comes from private buyers rather than fleets?...

    AIUI, the incentive change for expensive BEVs is not that drastic, and shouldn't affect demand too much in the long run -- the drop is mostly just a result of the demand pull-forward. As such, the e-tron should not be affected by it (it wasn't available before the incentive change), and the abysmal performance is thus rather shocking. Let's hope it is a result of the slow production ramp, rather than demand? (Unless most potential buyers chose to opt for other models that were available before the incentive change instead...)

    As for the I-Pace drop being slightly less terrible than Model X, I wouldn't read too much into it, unless the trend continues. It could be simply a result of orders not arriving in time -- notably, cars ordered after the latest price drop haven't arrived in Europe yet at all... More generally, while Tesla didn't specify the distribution of Model S/X vs. Model 3 for in-transit cars, the fact that they made quite a bit more S/X than they delivered, suggests there could be a significant number in transit as well. (Unless they produced a lot of inventory?...)

    Having said that, it's undeniable that Tesla is moving the Model S and X upmarket. That's not a rumour: the entry prices of these models have gone up quite significantly over the past few years. Discontinuing the 75 kWh variants was another major strike.

    I've felt for a while that the size and price difference between Model 3 and Model S is too large, and sooner or later Tesla will likely have to address this by introducing another model to sit between those, while more clearly moving the Model S into the F segment. Though given limited resources, it might take a while until they actually introduce that new model... (Theoretically, they could also move the Model S down, and introduce something else above it -- but that would be opposite to general trends.)

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    Replies
    1. I would prefer Tesla to move the Model S down, but then again, i'm not running Tesla, so...

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    2. The Model S in its current form is too large and too costly to move it down. Sure, they could theoretically do that when/if they introduce an entirely new version on a new platform (presumably derived from the Model 3 one) -- but how often has it happened in history of automotive that a new iteration of a model was positioned lower than the previous one?... It makes more sense to move the Model S up, and at some point introduce an entirely new, smaller and cheaper model in between. It's just that due to limited development resources, this probably won't happen as soon as it should...

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  3. Model 3 is disruptive and best practise and therefore it cannibalizes Model S and wins against all similar cars. If TESLA will ble to fullfill the wordwide demand and to attack with the Volkstesla Model 3 for 35000 Euros, the market will buy larger and or Lingerie ranging Tesla Models, two. Their ressource efficiency needs to be best practice in comparision to the cars of the same categories in China and Germany and can cost the same.

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  4. Obviously I wanted to say "...dying slowly until the remnant 18650 battery cells will run out." (English it's not my first language...:()

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  5. From the posted data, Q12019 standings are:
    1st Tesla with 2707 units
    2nd Kia-Hyundai with 2393 units
    3rd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 2205 units
    4th Volkswagen Group with 1093 units
    5th BMW Group with 684 units

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  6. The Model 3 has had its best quarter it will ever have in Europe. Going forward I expect only a few thousand a quarter. Tesla might introduce the MR model in Q2 or Q3 but this will only help sales numbers, it will not help the bottom line so it will be interesting what Tesla does there. Some believe Tesla has already got approval to sell the MR model in the EU.

    I do not think the SR model will ever be produced in any large quantity. We have seen/heard of up selling going on. I think Tesla is doing everything they can to not have to mass produce the SR model. Again, another bottom line killing model it would be.

    I do not believe Tesla will come out with a refresh for the Model S/X. It would have already if they were planning too. They already cut a production shift for the Model S/X at Fremont and their numbers globally have cratered. There are many reasons for this and a refresh will not help the numbers much if at all.

    If Tesla has another quarter in which they showed a drop in sales/deliveries over the previous quarter, I think it is game over for them. Sure they could get somebody to give them money but how would that help the bottom line.

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    Replies
    1. Are you so pessimistic in every aspect of your life?

      Delete
    2. Oh, he's not being pessimistic. He clearly *wants* Tesla to fail -- so in his eyes, this FUD is actually optimism.

      Most likely a short seller -- or maybe just a hater. The internet is full of both.

      BTW, it seems to be true that Tesla hasn't actually delivered any SR models thus far -- but then again, they already said it might take a while to ramp; and the previous timeline was later, too... It's just a bit weird that they originally promised 2 - 4 weeks delivery when they opened orders. I guess that was just the best case for the production ramp?...

      Either way, he conveniently omitted the fact that the only slightly more expensive SR+ variant is being delivered already in significant numbers. (And of course all variants will make it to other markets as well in due time.)

      Delete
  7. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 12, 2019

    Fun Fact.
    In April 2018 total BEV was 830 in the Netherlands.
    On April 11, 2019 the count was 861.
    Not 1 model pushing the total like in March, but Model 3(175), Kona(162), Niro(155), Leaf 40kWh(143) did it together.

    With later this year the Leaf-60kWh, new Zoe, Peugeot e208, Opel eCorsa, the group with really serious BEV will double.

    Model S&X, I-Pace, e-tron are too expensive for mass market now long range less expensive comes to market.

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