Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Germany August 2020


Mercedes A250e - A new star is born?

13% share! 

After a record month in August, the German plugin market had its second best month ever in August, with a little over 33,000 units performance, an amazing performance considering August is usually one of the slowest selling months of they year, preluding another record-breaking month in September, but more on that below...

PHEV registrations are going through the roof, up 448%(!), to 17,000 units, helping plugins as a whole jumping an amazing 319% last month, with the plugin share reaching an amazing 13% (6.4% BEV), and pulling the yearly tally to 9.2% (4.3% BEV). 

The incentive changes
 were the main reason for the recent surge, and with more record months to come (#Super-September), we may have already reached the tipping point in Germany, where disruption is visible and the status quo is changed forever, so we should see this market reach the 10% plugin share already this year (September? October?), which means 2021 would see this market surf the S-Curve like Garret McNamara in Nazare...

Back at last month Best Sellers, in August the Tesla Model 3 surprised everyone, with a record 2,824 registrations (In an off-peak month! How high will it get in #Super-September? 4,000?), winning its first Monthly Best Seller award since March, relegating at the same time the Renault Zoe (2,210 units) to the runner-up spot, but if the rumors of several thousands of orders pouring in to the French EV are true, then we should see it reach record numbers (3,000-plus?) next month (#Super-September).

Below the two Top Sellers, the #3 Mercedes A250e scored yet another record score, with 1,939 deliveries, with usable electric range (65 kms / 40 mi WLTP range), competitive pricing (starts below 40,000€) and even fast-charging(!), expect the compact Mercedes to become a familiar face in this Top 5.

Outside the podium, we have the #4 Ford Kuga PHEV and #5 Hyundai Kona EV, both at near record levels, making this a foreign-heavy Top 5, with only one model (Mercedes A250e) representing the home team. 

Of course, next month we should see the local hero VW ID.3 rise to the occasion and probably  win the Super-September Best Seller award, with say...6,000 units?

Tesla Model 3
Renault Zoe
Mercedes A250e
Ford Kuga PHEV
VW Passat GTE

Regarding the 2020 table, there's plenty to talk about, in the podium positions, the Renault Zoe replaced the VW e-Golf in the leadership, and with the German oldtimer soon to move into greener pastures, the French hatchback won't have to worry any more with it, and with the new 3rd placed Tesla Model 3, some 5,000 units behind, the Renault model should have enough margin to keep it on the rear view mirror.

Of course, next month will signal the first official deliveries month for the VW ID.3, with the German prodigy said to land with a bang (6,000 units?), all eyes are on it to see if it can displace the Renault Zoe from the throne, but in order to do so, it will need run against the limited time, by delivering a large number of units in Q4 (some 16,000 units). 

Will VW be able to do it? If i had to bet my money now, i would go with the French hatchback,  winning its 3rd consecutive Best Seller title...

Back to September, why will it be Super? Well, with the estimated 6,000 units of the VW ID.3,  3,000 of the Renault Zoe, and some 4,000 deliveries from the Tesla Model 3, we should have in only three models, 13,000 registrations. Add the rest of the market, with say, 30,000 units, and you get 43,000 units, not only a new record, but also reaching a record 14-15% plugin share!

The PHEV race is also interesting, with the leader VW Passat GTE (1,444 units, new record for the second month in a row), now being threatened by the rising star Mercedes A250e, that jumped 7 spots, to #5, and is now some 1,000 units behind the VW midsizer, so we could see the baby Merc reach the top of the category in a couple of months.

Speaking of Mercedes, the German OEM is ramping up its production, and it shows, not only the A250e hatchback is on fire, but its family siblings have also landed with positive numbers, with the CLA250e sports sedan delivering 410 units in its first month, while the family-friendly B250e MPV delivered 202 units last month. 

Other Mercedes shining were the GLC300e, that delivered 1,047 units, a new record for the Mercedes midsize PHEV, allowing it to be #21 in the YTD table, only 9 units behind the Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins, while the GLE350de registered 100 units last month, the big Mercedes first three-digit score ever in its home market. 

On the other hand, the EQC is still stuck in low numbers (239 units in August), and considering the decent numbers of the midsize EV in other markets, it seems local buyers are just not into the electric SUV.

Still, the three-pointed star maker has more to think about, like the ramp up of the next-in-line models: the GLA250e (60 units in August, surely the first of thousands more this year) and the EQV (23 units last month). 

Looking at other position changes, the Hyundai Kona EV was up 5 spots, to #6, the Ford Kuga PHEV jumped 3 positions, to #11, and should join the Top 10 in the coming months, while the Smart Fortwo EV climbed to #14 and the Skoda Superb PHEV was up to #19.

Outside the Top 20, a reference for the record 720 units of the Audi A6 PHEV and the 402 deliveries of the BMW X5 PHEV, while the Nissan Leaf (yes, it's still on sale) surprised many by delivering 322 units last month, its best score in the last 21 months, and the Polestar 2 landed last month in Germany, with 239 deliveries.

A final note for the VW ID.3, preparing for the next month flood, the German maker registered 388 units in August, no doubt demonstration units, as these units will be an important step in the OEM's Plan to rule the EV World, currently in Year Zero.  

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (15%, down 1%) leads the way and is now being followed by the rising Mercedes (12%, up 1%), that has relegated Audi (10%, down 1%) to the last place of the podium. Interestingly, in just three months, Mercedes jumped from 4th to 2nd... 

Outside the podium, BMW (7%, down 1%) has the #5 Renault (7%, down 1%) breathing on its neck.

On a final note, the Volkswagen Group total share is now of 30% (VW - 15%; Audi - 10%, Skoda - 3%; Porsche - 2%), well above the 15% (up 1%) of the Daimler Group or the 11% (down 1%) of the Renault-Nissan Alliance. And the BMW Group? Well...8%, or almost half of Daimler.

And to think BMW won the previous 4 Manufacturer titles...The Times They Are A-Changin', indeed... 


  1. Great post Jose, Wow only one Tesla in the Top 20.
    Wide range of cars, good to see.

  2. 'Germany August 2021' - I've always been impressed by your posts José, but seeing into the future is raising the bar even further, incredible! ;)

    1. Another: "After a record month in August, the German plugin market had its second best month ever in August" (August mentioned twice)

  3. Another big hit by Germany for 33.000 deliveries.
    Lets see how Model 3 moves from #3 to #2 and finally to #1.
    Welcome VW ID.3 (rising start), will it land in Top-20 or Top-15.
    Bye bye VW e-Up and its siblings Skoda Citigo EV and Seat Mii EV.
    Seems eGolf production ends in Sep with the remaining units sold out by Dec.

  4. How long until you drop PHEV listings, they are ICE.

    1. Driving 50 km / day for 250 days / year means driving 12.500 km / year on battery. Lets say another 20 km is driven on weekends, multiplied by 50 weeks / year means another 1.000 km on battery.
      So a plugin with 50 km electric range can go 13.500 km / year on small battery and its great.
      Our objective here is to reduce oil consumption and pollution. If PHEV can achieve it, then its great.
      Besides the same lithium batteries used for it boosts battery technology, production and brings down the cost.

  5. @José in the text you mention the Kona as #5, but it's #6 according to the tables...

  6. I wonder why Tesla sent so many units early in the quarter to Germany? Can't think of any specific motivator...

    1. Haha, the chief $TSLAQ clown suggested it was ahead of Elon's visit... Now if that isn't a good reason! ;-)

  7. @Jose Pontes
    I agree that an editor like you should be very positive/optimistic on ID.3 selling 6.000 units. But VW interests lie in 1. Diesel, 2. Petrol, 3. Others (Natgas, Electric, Fuel cell ...)
    If they really sell 6.000 units, it will land in top-8 or top-9. That would be really grand. From Oct, e-Golf will descend while Model 3 and ID.3 will ascend towards #1.
    Ford Kuga getting to top-10 is nearly assured.

  8. What was the market share of Tesla this month and what was the change mom/yoy?

    1. Probably a huge rise YoY... But Tesla's logistics-induced in-quarter fluctuations are really meaningless. Only the number for the whole quarter really matters.

  9. Wäre es möglich eine Tabelle mit nur BEV zu machen und Plugin rauszuschmeißen?

  10. Tesla is taking advantage of the new generous new subsidies like they did towards the end of 2019 in the Netherlands. Can they pass 10k in September ?

    1. Well, first of all, Tesla only sent something like 25,000 Model 3 Europe this quarter -- very unlikely that >40% of those will go to Germany alone...

      Second, the 2019 end-of-year rush in the Netherlands was before a subsidy *step-down*. (Another one happening this year, and the year after that, etc.) The extra subsidy in Germany is only scheduled to run out at the end of next year.

      And third, pretty much everyone is taking advantage of the increased subsidy. Would be strange to see Tesla get a stronger tailwind from it than others... (Especially since cheaper models benefit more in absolute and even more so in relative terms.)

    2. And after the incentives bubble always comes the cliff drop.