Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Global Top 20 August 2020

 Tesla Model Y já tem preços e configurações / 0 aos 100 / Notícias em alta  rotação

Models: Tesla Model Y and Wuling Mini EV shine in positive month

Registrations were up for the second time in a row last month, a first this year, with registrations going up 58%, to some 241.000 units, with plugin hybrids in particular jumping 92%, to 76.000 units, which is already having a positive impact on the YTD numbers, now back in black, if by just 1%, to 1.4 million, so we should see the plugin market end the year with positive numbers

On the other hand, the overall automotive market lost momentum, having dropped 10% YoY last month, leading to a August PEV share of 3.8% (2.5% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 3.1% (2.1% BEV), above the 2.5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.

With BEV growth trailing behind PHEVs (+46% vs +92%), the BEV/PHEV breakdown is slowly becoming more balanced, with the current standing now at 67% BEV, 33% PHEV. 

With a helping hand from the Chinese EV market, the leader Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in August, but the rising star Wuling Mini EV scored 9.150 units last month, so in the future the small 4-seater might steal a couple of monthly wins from Tesla's sports sedan, speaking of the Californian maker, the Tesla Model Y won the monthly Bronze medal, thanks to a record 8.052 deliveries, allowing Tesla's new baby to jump five spots in the Top 20, to #6, and expect the Model Y to jump further positions, possibly reaching the podium next month.

Another model with strong results was the Hyundai Kona EV, that scored 5.692 deliveries, allowing the Korean crossover to remove the Nissan Leaf in the last place in the podium, while the #15 Ford Kuga / Escape PHEV was up 5 spots, and is on the way to the PHEV podium.

A mention also for the good performances of a number of Chinese EVs, besides the aforementioned record result of the Wuling Mini EV, that allowed it to join the Top 20 in #18, the #10 GAC Aion S scored a Year Best score of 4.071 units, while outside the Top 20, the #21 Great Wall Ora Black Cat (formerly known as Ora R1) had 3.748 units, its best score in over a year, and added to the #23 Chery eQ, that with 3.307 units, had its best score since June last year, it seems to confirm return of form from Chinese small EVs, and the Wuling Mini EV is the most extreme example of that.

On the PHEV side, the most impressive model is the new Mercedes A250e (3.510, new record), while the Li Xiang One also hit a personal best performance, with 2.711 units, and could join the table soon. 

Manufacturers: SAIC and Mercedes shine, but Tesla rules supreme

Tesla's score (43.887 units) was its best off-peak performance in the maker history, and is in a different league, but below it, there were also record performances, namely from Mercedes, that registered 12.227 units, its second record score in a row, making the three-pointed star brand the Best Selling European brand(!) in August, ahead of the BMW arch-rival, and even the almighty Volkswagen. 

This performance allowed the German brand to climb one position, to #10, and should climb higher in the next few months.

In a different scale, young little NIO, now in #20, continues to grow, having reached a record 3.971 deliveries last month, as it tries to keep up with the Big Boys.

In the first half of the table, BYD was up one spot, to #3, switching positions with BMW,  thanks to 14.053 units, the brand best score this year, which means the Shenzhen maker is back in form and willing to recover the runner-up spot.

Shanghai Auto, or should i say, SAIC + SGMW(1), is also on the rise, reaching the runner-up spot last month, with 18.000 deliveries, and is now looking to surpass BMW too.

Volvo climbed to #6 last month, with the Swedish maker continuing to climb in the table, now 10 spots above last year result.

The lower half has seen some action too, with Ford climbing to #16, while Porsche was up to #18.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to #22 Great Wall and #21 Chery, that registered 4.919 and 4.322 units respectively, their best score since June 2019, and both are some 3.000 units behind the #20 NIO.

(1) - SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.

Looking at OEM growth, if the PEV market grew 58% last month, some OEMs grew well above that average:

#1 - PSA (1.859% YoY in August);

#2 - Ford Group (538%);

#3 - Daimler (414%);

#4 - Volvo Group (303%);

#5 - VW Group (206%).

For further information, Hyundai-Kia was up 65% YoY, while Tesla grew 71%.

Of course, this simplistic approach is skewed to help smaller OEMs, because if you sold 2 units instead of 1, it means a 100% growth, hence the success of the Top 3 OEMs.

So the best approach is to look at total volume, and here, the OEMs that grew more regarding August 2019, volume wise, are:

#1 - VW Group (18.583);

#2 - Tesla (17.745);

#3 - Daimler (11.675).

If the first spot of the Volkswagen Group is surprising, if you think about the sales uptick that the German Conglomerate had in the past year, it is just the following of a trend started late last year. And the VW Group even has a shot at following Tesla in September, because if the Californian will benefit from a high tide next month, Volkswagen will benefit from the "ID.3" effect...

Because this is the second month of the quarter, one shouldn't read too much into Tesla's numbers, as the previous normal quarters (Q4 2019; Q1 2020) saw Tesla increasing the seasonality of sales, with lower than average numbers in the first two months, and then an end of quarter month with higher than usual deliveries, so i wouldn't be surprised if the same happened again this quarter. Will we see it have a record month in September?

The real surprise continues to be the Daimler Group (Mercedes + Smart + Denza), that thanks to another good month of the Smart brand, as well as the ramp up of the Mercedes PHEVs and the EQC, the German Group is becoming an unlikely success story, and with a bunch of new models set to increase production (CLA250e, B250e, GLA250e, EQV...), expect them to continue showing up here.


  1. It's a bit unfair to compare SAIC to other brands. SAIC is the group, and includes brands like MG, Maxus and Roewe

    1. I had my doubts in keeping all brands under one umbrella. Next month, i will separate SAIC from SGMW, as the second is its own monster.

    2. Yeah, SAIC vs. SGMW had me confused as well. But it's not only that. Aren't the Wuling and Baojun models marketed as separate brands? As well as MG, Roewe, etc.? Why put them under one umbrella, when other group's brands are all treated separately? Or do they actually all carry some sort of SAIC branding?...

    3. It would be great to see where MG fits on this list. Just separating SAIC from SGMW has the same problem as before as you can't buy a 'SAIC' branded car

    4. @Antrik: Wuling and Baojun are part of SGMW, which is a joint venture between SAIC, GM and Wuling, their EVs work isolated from the remaining SAIC corporation, focussed on city EVs, with Baojun as the "Premium" brand, while Wuling is the "low cost" brand.

      MG and Roewe are the different faces of the same coin (SAIC), as one represents luxury (Roewe) and the other sportiness (MG), a bit like Rover/MG worked a couple of decades ago, that is why there are a number of Roewe's rebadged as MG (MG HS, MG 5...), as MG has the international cachet that Roewe lacks. So, in all honesty, i don't think it makes sense to separate them, as both share a number of models.

      I have my doubts on Maxus, but because its volumes in the passenger vehicle category are small, it doesn't make much difference in the total number.

    5. Yes, I understand the difference in corporate structure between SAIC proper and SGMW. The question is whether it makes sense to treat either as a single brand. What you describe for Roewe vs. MG doesn't really sound different from say Peugeot/Citroen/DS/Opel/Vauxhall or VW/Seat/Skoda/Audi/Porsche etc.? Or am I missing something?...

    6. PSA or the VW Group use the same platforms and engines for their brands, but a Seat Leon has a different design from the VW Golf, which in turn is different from the Skoda Octavia or Audi A3.

      In SAIC, if indeed some MG and Roewe models have their unique designs, others are the same model, but with different badges, like is the case of the Roewe Ei5 and the MG5.

    7. I see.

      What about that Chinese model (from GAC IIRC?) that is sold with different badges through the joint-ventures of several different global OEMs? Are they all counted under the GAC brand?

      What about Opel/Vauxhall? Not too relevant, since it's not anywhere near the top 20 anyway: but would you count them as one brand, since they sell the same models?

    8. Opel / Vauxhall are counted as the same brand, as for GAC, they are indeed the same model, but i count them separately, because they belong to different OEMs, other than GAC (Toyota, Honda, etc).

  2. Amazing numbers for VW ID3 in Norway. Over the last 10 days ID3 had a market share of 30%!!! in Norway. If this can be intruduced into World markets, ID3 would sell 100.000 cars per month and over 1 mil per year and the total market would jump from 3 mil to 4 mil cars.

    1. @Heinrich
      Thanks for posting VW ID3 # in Norway, but they are not going to hit 1.000.000 since they are not selling in USA/Can. I dont know whether its VW global decision or VW USA. There is so much resistance here for fuel efficient vehicles, thats why Ford is selling Kuga PHEV in 2 digits while they sold 5K+ worldwide. They can sell more hybrids/plugins to boost sales of that model, but they are stubbornly resisting sales of such fuel efficient versions.
      Except Tesla, most other automakers are not interested in selling their plugins here.

    2. The calculation is just hypothetical, yet were there is smoke there is also fire. The huge ID3 success in Norway tells a lot about the entry of electrical vehicles into the mass market. So far EV have been considered as niche markets, yet ID3 seems to have the potential to enter the mass market.

    3. That's because the raditional automakers are shipping all the available PEVs to Europe to meet the emmision regulations, leaving basicly nothing for US.

    4. @Heinrich, not important first few months, when cars are first released there huge demand. Let see in the next 6 months sales.

    5. Nah, it's only pent-up demand when it happens with new Tesla models; for other brands, it's obviously a clear sign of things to come ;-)

  3. Look at that e-Golf with 3766 registrations on august 2020... If only some carmakers could sell their old stuff that easily.

    1. They could... If they offered the same kinds of discounts :-) Don't forget the Ampera-e fire sale earlier this year for example.

    2. ... not likely. Which other carmakers could be selling the old version (Golf 7), the newer version (Golf 8) and the newer competitor (I.D.3) at the same time?
      But how much discounting are they giving: 50%, 75% of previous price? I want one too!

    3. Golf 8 doesn't compete with ID.3... They are successors to the combustion Golf 7 and the electric Golf 7 (e-Golf), respectively.

  4. Model Y sales started in 2020-03 and within 6 months, it captured #6 position and pushing Outlander out of top-10. If it sold the same # in super sep, then its in #3 place.
    If Tesla sold 30K in Jul & 40K in Aug, and even if it sells 50K in Sep, it will hit 120K a new high for quarter, way to go.

    240.981 sales in august which has low sales in europe and amidst pandemic is great. There is only 1 plugin in top-10. 3,1 % share is impressive. Plugin hybrid sales is only 76.000 in aug while it was 88.000 in july mainly because of decrease in europe sales. Finally global sales of 220K + has become the norm.

    September will see a big increase in BEVs because of VW ID.3 wave + Model 3/Y and MiniEV. Sad to see Model X out of top-20. Time for Tesla to consider smaller battery options like 75 / 80 KWh. After all, its the multiple ranges that enabled Tesla to stardom. Rogues at Nissan are successfully killing Leaf that it drops out of top-3 for the 1st time.

    1. I am expecting 140-150k for Tesla in Q3.

    2. I don't think Tesla will be seriously pushing Model S or X sales until they switch to the new battery architecture (starting with Plaid), which will enable more competitive pricing and/or better margins, and also remove the need to match production of a special cell format they aren't using for anything else...

      I haven't thought of this before: but I now suspect that the new 46800 format having been in the works for a while is the reason why they abandoned the original plan to migrate S/X to 21700 cells.

    3. There are no "rogues" killing the Leaf. Its obsolete, no longer competitive platform is doing that well enough on its own.

    4. Its 4680 form factor which means 46 mm in diameter and 80 mm in length, same for 2070 and older one is 1865. So the 0 at the end is redundant and even Elon Musk told on battery day as how it came.

    5. As much as I admire Musk, he doesn't get to change the industry-wide nomenclature just because he feels like it. (And there is actually a good reason for the extra 0 -- so either he is ignorant, or pretending to be ignorant...)

    6. What is "good reason" is the question.

      Here are 3 simple reasons that Elon Musk used 4680
      1. State explicitly the measures involved: 46 mm-diameter, 80 mm-height (mathematically correct)
      2. Simple to pronounce 4680 in any language:
      forty six eighty (English)
      Sìshíliù Bāshí (Mandarin)
      chhiyaalees assi (Hindi)
      Pronouncing forty six eight hundred is certainly longer and some could pronounce four sixty eight double zero.
      3. In future, if they introduce 50 100 cells with 50 mm diameter and 100 mm length, they dont need to add 0 and say 50 1000 which will only confuse many. Probably at that time, they may put a . in between like 50.100 so that people read it as 2 parts (fifty one hundred). Who would have thought 4680 when they introduced 2170 many years ago.

      "industry-wide nomenclature" is
      (petroleum = transport) and (transport = petroleum)
      Tesla and many websites like ev-sales.blogspot are out to change it.

      I dont think a scientist or engineer would have come up with such a term, rather an arrogant businesman would have brought the convention of suffixing 0.

    7. The nomenclature applies to *all* round cells, including button cells, which often have fractional heights, and thus need the extra digit -- such as CR2025 (20 x 2.5 mm) or CR2032 (20 x 3.2 mm). 2170 would be a cell with 21 mm width and 7.0 mm height -- which is a plausible format. Calling a 21 x 70.0 mm cell 2170 instead of 21700 is misleading.

      (And BTW, just to be clear, Tesla/Panasonic didn't even first introduce the 21700 format...)

  5. Folks: Read this article: VW is considering the future of Bugatti, Lamborghini & Ducati.
    Only 82 Bugattis, 4.554 Lambos & 53.000 Ducati were sold.
    When the Tesla Roadster goes on sale, there will not be any need for these slow cars which cost many times more. This will shock many who keeps cheering gas guzzlers and criticize BEVs.

    Eventually they will end up with VW being standard brand, Audi being luxury, and Porsche being fast luxury makes.

    1. Bugatti was sold recently to Rimac ;-)

    2. Huh? Last I heard, they were *considering* a transaction?...

      (And AIUI it wouldn't be a sale, but rather an entanglement, where Bugatti would become a part of Rimac, but Porsche in exchange would get half of Rimac... Similar to how Porsche wasn't really sold to VW, but rather the Porsche brand became part of VW in exchange for the Porsche holding getting majority ownership of VW...)

  6. @Jose Pontes

    Per the data I collected from wiki and ev-sales.blogspot. Nissan sold only 489.200 Leafs.
    At the end of 2017 (mostly Gen-1). it was 300.575. From 2018. its 188.625. But Nissan claims they sold 500.000 + Leafs so far. Do you have the info on this. Leaf is (was) still a great car that started the trend.

    2020 31.603
    2019 69.873
    2018 87.149
    2017 47.195
    2016 51.882
    2015 43.870
    2014 61.027
    2013 47.484
    2012 26.973
    2011 22.094
    2010 50
    Total 489.200

  7. Police using Tesla Model 3 could get the ROI in less than 1 1/2 years.
    With Ford Taurus & Chevy Impala stopped, Dodge Charger is the only full size american sedan with V6/V8 engines. Model 3 offers better pickup, smoother driving. If every police car went to Model 3, it will give a big boost to sales.

    Will the police also go for Model Y if offered at some low price?
    There is talk of some police using Cybertrk, but this is overkill.

    GM and Honda are not even on the scene. GMs only electrified vehicle is Bolt which has price of $36.620 with a discount of $8.500. GMs investment in Nikola (fuel cell) is being questioned.
    Honda still bets on fuel cell with their only Clarity FCEV available in 2020 and no word on 2021 model.
    These 2 companies has some partnership it seems.

  8. Could you please share the most important datapoint IMO
    BEV market share ( taking out PHEV etc ). You’ve had this datapoint before, could you please share that with us?

  9. Could you please share BEV market share like you did before? That’s the most important datapoint IMO

  10. There were no registration numbers for Model S and Model X but 196.106 (Model 3) + 29.007 (Model Y) = 225.113. Total numbers for Tesla is 253.435 so extract that from 225.113 = 28.322 Model S and X registrations as of 1 september 2020

  11. After the Beijing auto show BYD apparently now has 40,000 Hans on back order...
    Will be interesting to see how fast they ramp up the Blade Battery production and if their other BEV sales will take off when they put the Blade in them...
    They are all reported to get the new battery...

    1. Ramping "Blade Battery" shouldn't be hard, as it's really just a new form factor for the cell can, and a new way of putting the cells into the pack...

  12. You should really consider expanding the table to top 30 or so (25? 40?) for the global sales, top 20 worked great when there was fairly limited amount of EVs available but now "Others" contain good half of the sales.

  13. With the ID.3 *finally* being delivered, I don't see much hope for BYD to recover the runner-up spot...

    1. Looking back, i think you might be right.

  14. Not a word about the Renault Zoe? Despite it’s sold only in Europe unlike Tesla or Hyundai it manage to be the second best selling EV in the World. That‘s quite impressive too

    1. August is usually an "off" month for French models due to holiday season, so in September i am expecting another 10k-plus performance, and by then i will surely mention it.

    2. While the Zoe is doing really well in Europe, let's not forget that it's a fundamentally Europe-centric model. In the US, small cars don't sell in general (see Bolt...), while in China, there are way more affordable models in that class from local makers. The Zoe is not artificially limited to Europe: this is indeed pretty much what it can do in terms of global sales. Still impressive -- but not more so because of only being available in Europe...

  15. Since 11 days VW ID3 holds his 30% market share in Norway. A big wave is rising here. The Norwegian electric car market is on fire as record numbers of electric cars are sold.

    1. Heinrich, as the true VW fan that you seem to be, can tell me how much units do you expect the VW Group to deliver in September?

    2. As the Zwickau/Saxony ID3 factory ( former Trabi producer) ramps up production to 100.000 per quarter or roughly 1000 per day, September sales will be lower than 1000 per day as sales started during mid September. Including Audi etron, Skoda citgo, Seat mii, VW up, sales in September are however close to 30.000. This will go to 50.000 in October. There is coincidence that subsidies surged in Germany in line with the production surge. The German government clearly wants to help car manufacturers to create a wave of electric car sales.

  16. Tesla MIC Model 3 got a 8% price cut for SR+ and 12% for LR. SR+ gets cheaper LFP batteries which is already #2 chemistry after NCM/NCA and may become #1 if it progresses at this rate. New price is $36,800.

    Model 3 becomes more affordable.
    After all, battery prices are going down steadily.

  17. And where is the Chevy Bolt? I see them everywhere around me!

    1. Chevy Bolt sales increased 17% from 4,830 (2019-Q3) to 5,682 (2020-Q3), but this is because of hefty $8K+ discount and even now the $8.500 discount is available.
      Ideally they should reduce the price instead of offering this discount forever.

      At such high price, everyone with pay another $1.500 to buy Model 3 which is bigger, faster, supercharging, high resale value and has luxury name in it.

      BMW i3 sales decreased 55% in USA. Unless they come up with a higher battery option at a reduced price, no hope, for a much lower price and higher range, everyone will go for Model 3.

    2. Bolt and i3 have unique form factors: not everyone will go for a Model 3 even at the same price... Though admittedly most people will, given technical superiority and improved buyer/driver experience on so many fronts -- as we can see in the sales charts :-)

      Note that the default discount on Bolt is to make up for no longer available federal tax credit. In this sense, not lowering the list price makes it more comparable to models that still have the tax credit available...

  18. Hooray, Tesla produced 145.036 vehicles and delivered 139.300 which is not only a year over year record, but also an all time record.

    Model S/X: 16.992 (production) & 15.200 (sales)
    Model 3/Y: 128.044 (production) & 124.100 (sales)

    Their total sales in aug was 42.887 and in jul was 32.956 which is total of 75.843 in those 2 months, that means they sold 63.457 units in sep.
    So 2020-YTD sales stands at 316.892. Last year their sales was around 255.000 in the 1st 3 quarters. Significant improvement despite pandemic.

    This is 43% increase in sales. As expected, it will be a super september. Many mainstream automakers suffered sales declines in 2020-Q3.

    Only 7% of the vehicles were leased with 93% sold which is high # for luxury vehicles.

    1. I see this different. September sales will be very disappointing for Tesla as Model3, Model S and Model X reach their end of the product cycle. Sales in Norway and Netherlands clearly show a horrible trend. Tesla needs something truly new and innovative. Musk knows that.

  19. @José why is the last-year placing of models such as e-tron or Niro EV specified as "not available"? While they didn't make it into the top 20 last year, you do have the full data -- so you could still provide their actual placement, right?... (As opposed to models that actually weren't available last year...)

    1. Lazyness, i guess :P

      Will change that next month.