Saturday, January 18, 2020

Germany December 2019

Resultado de imagem para Renault zoe vs VW e-Golf vs bmw i3


Renault Zoe wins 2019 Models trophy, BMW wins Manufacturers

The German PEV passenger car market ended the year on fire, with registrations more than doubling in December, to 11,328 registrations, with PHEVs (+198% YoY) pulling the market up, balancing the 2019 BEV/PHEV share to 58% BEV vs 42% PHEV (51% / 49% in December).

The PEV Share climbed to 4% in December
, with BEVs alone hitting 2%, while the final PEV share for 2019 ended at a record 3% (1.8% BEVs).

Looking at December Best Sellers, the Mercedes E300e/de twins three-peeted the monthly leadership, with 964 units, narrowly beating the high tide Tesla Model 3 (926 units), while the Renault Zoe returned to the podium, in 3rd, with 780 units, signaling the return of the French hatchback to form.

Just outside the podium we have the forever young VW e-Golf, with 764 units, while the BMW i3 closes this Top 5, with 630 units, beating the #6 Smart Fortwo EV (623 units) in the finish line.

Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Mercedes E300e/de
964
2
Tesla Model 3
926
3
Renault Zoe
780
4
VW e-Golf
764
5
BMW i3
630

The German PEV market is known for close races and its changes and surprises, with the 2019 edition was no exception, with a leadership change in the last month of the year, as the Renault Zoe managed to beat the the BMW i3 by just 49 units, with the French hatchback repeating last year title, after two consecutive years as Second Best.

Despite losing to the Zoe, the BMW i3 won the runner-up place, improving on the Third Spot won in 2018.   

Despite a strong December, the Tesla Model 3 stayed 418 units behind the leader Renault Zoe, with the Californian ending in the last place of the podium.

In 4th place, we have the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that had its best year ever in Germany, with 7,593 units, allowing it to win the Best Selling PHEV and SUV titles, while the #7 Mercedes E300e/de won the Best Selling Luxury Car, succeeding to its BMW 530e arch rival, and the #10 Audi e-Tron was the Best Selling Luxury SUV.

In December, there were some last minute changes, the Smart Fortwo EV was up one spot, ending in #7, and their stablemates Mercedes C300e/de climbed to #15, while the BMW Group also had reasons to smile about, with the Mini Countryman climbing to #13, thanks to a record 355 registrations, and the BMW 330e jumped 3 positions, to #17, with the German midsizer scoring a record 529 units. 

Finally, the Porsche Cayenne PHEV joined the ranking in the last month of the year, in #20, with Porsche placing both its plugins in the Top 20.

Outside the Top 20, there are several models in ramp up mode (BMW X5 PHEV - 114 units; Audi Q5 PHEV - 312; Mini Cooper EV - 324; VW Passat GTE - 468), while the Swedish Yacht Volvo XC90 PHEV scored a record 117 units, a brilliant score for a model that already has a few years on its back.

"What about the big Teslas?" - you might ask, well the Model S scored 114 units, while the Model X had 89 deliveries, far from the 964 registrations of the Mercedes E300e/de, or the 253 units of the Porsche Cayenne PHEV, but like the Volvo XC90 PHEV, they are playing in one of the most difficult foreign fields, so it would be surprising if they could beat the local heroes, which highlights even further the outstanding performance of the Model 3 in Germany in 2019.

In the brands ranking, BMW (22%, +1%) won its 5th manufacturers title, ahead of Tesla (10%), and the #3 Smart (9%), with the French manufacturer resisting the advances of the #4 Mercedes (8%).



The German PEV market is traditionall one of the most balanced and unpredictable out there, but in 2020 a major shift will happen, as the plugin market starts to get into the mainstream (around 6% PEV share), the boredom stability of the overall market will start to set it, with the main interest being in which month will the VW ID.3 take over the leadership from the Renault Zoe, with my guess being between October and November. 

62 comments:

  1. Whoa...9.013 Tesla model 3 against a prediction of 9.000 made in December 2018. It was almost bullseye for you José!

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    1. Thanks, hadn't realized it.

      I guess when the 2019 reporting ends, i should make a recap to see where i was right or wrong.

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  2. No Taycan delivered in December? There was some info about 130 Taycan delivered to US in December, strange to see zero number from homeland...

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    1. That is not a full list.

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    2. Maarten VinkhuyzenJanuary 18, 2020

      Porsche Taycan 31 in December registered. Could be dealer / show cars or first customers.

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    4. googeling "fz8 kba dezmber 2019", I see 31 Taycan (on page 9 of the pdf).

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  3. Mini Cooper EV - 324!

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    1. Yeah, i was surprised too! It seems the Mini EV is off to a strong start!

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    2. Where did you guys just found 324 Mini Cooper EV? BMW registered 496 of them in Germany during 2019, just february scored a blank!

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  4. Madan RajanJanuary 18, 2020

    Tesla selling 9.013 in the German heartland is really great.
    Top-3 in 2019 belongs to BEVs.

    Benz E300e/E300de (Saloon/Estate) are actually 4 models, but Tesla Model-3 is a single model.
    At least now Benz is willing to sell PHEVs and that needs to be appreciated. What is surprising is they have combined diesel with plugin and this shows how much they are wedded to diesel and at the same time realizing the need to go electric.

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    1. Yeah, it's like Toyota and HEVs, too much attachement to what made them great.

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    2. I too was puzzled at first about the diesel PHEVs -- but then I realised it makes perfect sense: after all, the majority of those cars are sold to fleet customers who only want the subsidies, but never intend to actually charge them -- while they don't want to pay higher fuel prices for gasoline vs. diesel they are actually driving on!

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    3. Well...It isn't so linear.

      I have heard from a lot of people the argument: "Why don't OEMs make a diesel PHEV? That way, i wouldn't have any problem with fuel consumption on the highway…"

      And this is coming from private buyers, that i know they would use the electric part as much as they could, in their daily commutes.

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    4. I have to wonder: do these people still believe the giant "clean diesel" fraud -- or are those people who just want to save fuel costs any way they can, and don't give a shit about poisoning everyone?...

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    5. Option 2.

      Remember, not everyone is a climate activist, in fact most people are neutral, with a big minority still being climate denier.

      We have to engage everyone in electrification, so the arguments have to change according to the target audience.

      So, if we convince people that would go diesel in their next car, to go PHEV diesel, it is still better than just prieching the BEV gospel to them, something that would not get into their mindset, and then they would just buy another diesel car, right?

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    6. Well, of course I'm in favour of people unwilling to go BEV yet to buy PHEVs for the time being... However, if certain people are indeed primarily concerned about cost savings, and intend to charge regularly, I would expect them to still have chosen a gasoline PHEV over a diesel combustion car... Meaning diesel PHEVs are likely competing mostly with gasoline PHEVs, not other diesels -- thus probably making them a net negative in terms of pollution.

      (BTW, I would hope that even people denying climate science should be able to acknowledge that breathing poisonous and carcinogenic exhaust fumes is not the best of ideas?...)

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  5. I'd say the most direct threat to the Zoe should be the (kinda) local Corsa-e? Same class, mostly similar specs -- but with significantly better DC fast charge rate giving it a major edge for long distance travel.

    As for the ID.3, it all depends on how much more it gets delayed...

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    2. No one thinks about long-distance travel in class cars A and B.Be the second car family(huge niche),for youth,for hipsters.The main task is to clean the air in the city(there should be economic benefits).

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    3. Peaple in cities need 200 km mileage and an adequate price.Scaling production for automakers and sales will tly into space.

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    4. The Opel Corsa EV should have a strong showing here, the problem is the tarnished image Opel has in many people's minds…

      And to think 20 years ago, Opel was comparable to Volkswagen!

      Curious to know how PSA will rebrand Opel in the next couple of years, if done properly, it could be the brand that succeeds in markets usually closed to French makers.

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    5. @José you have to look further back than that. 20 years ago, Opel's image was already severely tarnished. (Rust issues on first-generation Astra in the 90s, among other things.)

      No idea though how Opel's current image compares to Renault...

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    6. @Vlad I had assumed you are from Europe as well -- but going by this statement, I guess that's not actually the case? In my experience, it is *perfectly normal* around here for a B-class car to be a main vehicle, used for everything including long-distance travel. There is a reason why short-range "city EVs" are a tiny niche: almost nobody actually buys cars only for the city! If people actually wanted cars only for the city, they wouldn't be insisting on 50+ kWh batteries.

      ("City car" is a misnomer anyway: there is usually little point to drive a car in the city only... Commuting by car is mostly a thing for people living on the outskirts/suburbs.)

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    7. No one insists on 50 kW.Great pre-orders on Mini SE confirm this.
      For a second car in the family,it makes little point to driving in the city?What planet are you from?

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    8. I assume,that most do not travel outside the suburb for a long time.

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    9. I live in a city -- so I *know* there is not really much reason to own a private car for people who don't regularly leave the city. I can walk (or scoot) to many places; use pretty decent public transport for longer distances or bad weather; and could also easily rent a shared vehicles for occasions where it's more convenient.

      Of course there are still many people who prefer driving private cars nevertheless: but their main motivation is generally a perception of independence -- which doesn't jibe well with a short-range EV...

      Also, even people who stay in the city usually prefer a larger battery, since city dwellers most often don't have access to dedicated charging spots: so having to charge less often is more convenient.

      It's a well-known fact that longer-range EVs sell better. We shall see about the Mini SE -- for now I remain doubtful it will be anything but niche longer term...

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    10. Efficiency for am BEV is the most important parameter.

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    11. Where do traffic jams come from? Are there just busesin them?

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    12. I efficiency was the most important parameter on its own, sales figures of various models would be looking very different than they do...

      (Efficiency *does* matter -- but for most buyers, only in as much as it affects range...)

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    13. I have a 30 kWh EV and bought it just as city/commuter car, for the rest i would have the ICE car.

      Turns out, the "city EV" can do much more than just commuting, it can do also a few weekend trips, so i guess others would also find a 30-something kWh EV enough for them for the daily commutes.

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    14. It's a well-known fact that range anxiety tends to go away once people start actually driving an EV... But because that only happens after the fact, it doesn't change the situation that very few people are willing to buy a short-range EV in the first place.

      BTW, you basically confirmed that very few people use a car *only* for the city... Which is why I think that good fast charging is a big plus for any type of personal EV.

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    15. Mini SE-90000 preorders.Do you have any doubts?

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    16. @Vlad where did you see that figure? I have a very hard time believing it...

      (Unless you mean reservations rather then actual pre-orders, which is a very different thing...)

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    17. @antrik
      https://insideevs.com/news/392193/mini-90000-prospective-customers-cooper-se/These are not firm orders,interest is impressive.

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    18. So these aren't even reservations... Basically just newsletter subscriptions. Actual sales will likely be a small fraction of that.

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  6. Germany will be a really interesting market to watch in 2020.

    I think the market could grow to 250-300k units, with both PHEVs and BEVs seeing sales more than doubling.

    The first months should be in the hands of PHEVs and small EVs, like the new Zoe, the e-up, mii, citigo siblings, the smart face lifts and the Mini. Q3 and Q4 should be dominated by the ID 3.

    Curious for e-tron and Eqc ramp up as well.

    The bestseller should go to the ID 3. But that we will only know late into the year.

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  7. 31 in December about 600 2019. But no deliveries to costumers yet.
    My neighbour working for Porsche already drives one.

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  8. There will be a real battle between BEVs and PHEVs.It will be about 220000.

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    1. IMHO it's misleading to call it a "battle". As far as I can tell, there is actually little overlap between BEV and PHEV markets.

      PHEVs are mostly for people who decide on a car model first, and then might go for the PHEV variant if available. (Especially where subsidies are more or less removing the price difference, so there is basically nothing to lose...)

      BEVs on the other hand are for people who first made the decision that they want an EV, and then pick among the available models.

      (Tesla is a bit of an exception there I guess, since the cars are just so good -- especially the Model 3 -- that often people who never thought of buying an EV suddenly want it, once they get to drive one...)

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    2. I meant the numbers of sold cars,not motives when buying.

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  9. 1.Id3,2 Zoe,3 PHEV.4 Mini SE,5 PHEV.

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    1. Yeah, the Mini could be a dark horse, i never expected such a strong start.

      Let's keep a close eye on it...

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    2. You seriously think the Model 3 won't even be in the top 5 in 2020, after narrowly missing #1 in 2019?...

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    3. Yes,I think so(If T3 does not create a good incentive).

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    4. I want T3 to be n1,but I dont see how it can be done.

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    5. "after narrowly missing #1 in 2019".Everybody thought at the begining of the year:T3 without options will win the German market.

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    6. These wacky supplies at the end of the quarter further exacerbates Tesla position in European market.

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    7. I understand that there was no such possibility,but now need to change something.

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    8. The Model 3 is still an amazing car, that trounces anything else in the same price range. I don't think it needs additional incentives...

      Nevertheless, I for my part wasn't actually holding out too much hope for it doing particularly well in Germany: German premium car buyers tend to be fiercely loyal to German brands... The 9,000 deliveries of the American upstart are more than I dared to hope for.

      But I see no reason why it should be worse this year: the first and only German competitor announced thus far is the BMW i4, supposed to come at some point in 2021... Nothing in 2020. And the construction of the factory near Berlin is likely to provide some tailwinds, as it lessens the perception of Tesla as a niche foreign upstart...

      What other models could sell in a similar range? There is the Zoe of course, which should see a further boost from the bigger battery, but might also face some competition from the Corsa-e, which itself should see similar sales figures. The i3 is unlikely to see sales growing further without a new version, but should be able to keep its standing more or less I'd guess. And of course there is the ID.3 later in the year, if it doesn't get delayed further...

      I can't think of any other model that is likely to threaten the top ranks.

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    9. "The Model 3 is still an amazing car".I agree.That is why I was hoping for much larger sales.

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    10. I see myseff as a task for Tesla:displace gasoline analogues in its niche and a little lower.

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  10. @José Pontes
    I have a huge request for you:review major markets top30.

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  11. Thank you for your impressing report. It would be very important, to publish the earnings per E-car Model top 30. Who could collect and publish the data?

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  12. Expressive changes in the german market, where the leading position belong to the BMW Group with a clear distance from the following 3 carmakers, while the last position is occupied by Tesla.

    From the published data, 2019 carmaker standings are:

    1st BMW Group with 22656 vehicles
    2nd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 19644 vehicles
    3rd Daimler with 15950 vehicles
    4th Volkswagen Group with 13322 vehicles
    5th Tesla with 9013 vehicles

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