Tuesday, February 4, 2020

2019 sales by OEM


Looking at the 2019 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV


If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 17% share (Up 5% regarding 2019), thanks to a 122,000 units sales growth regarding 2018, followed by BYD (10%, down 1%), that has seen its sales impacted by the subsidies change in China, and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that dropped 1% YoY, to 9% share, that suffered from the slowing sales of the Nissan Leaf, with the 2018 podium repeating in 2019. 

The #4 BAIC also dropped 1%, to 7% share (down 2%) repeating last year place, with the #5 BMW Group also keeping the same position as in 2018, but in the case of the German Group, its slight growth rate allowed it to keep the same market share as in the previous year.

The Climber in the ranking was the Volkswagen Group, that in the Year -1 of its Plan to Rule the EV World, it jumped 3 spots, from #9 to #6, surpassing SAIC, Hyundai-Kia and the Geely Group, thanks to a 59,000 units growth regarding 2018, an amazing 70% growth rate, beating even that of Tesla (+50% YoY).

Will the German Group be able to outpace Tesla again in 2020? And in 2021?

Still, despite being surpassed by Volkswagen Group, SAIC, Hyundai-Kia and Geely all grew, with the Korean Group in particular growing at a significant 38% rate. 

Finally, with the demise of most of the smaller Chinese EV makers, Toyota(!) managed to climb to #10, growing 20% YoY, thanks to the start of its Chinese Operations. 




BEV


Looking just at the 1.6 million BEVs, Tesla expanded its lead, doubling the result of #2 BAIC, which was also the runner-up in 2018, while the slowing sales of the Renault-Nissan Alliance dropped it to #4, with BYD becoming the 2019 Bronze medalist, thanks to a 46% growth rate, so although in the BEV+PHEV table BYD has stagnated, in reality, BYD has replaced a significant part of their plugin hybrid sales for pure electric ones.

SAIC benefits from the unexpected success of the Baojun E-Series to climb into #5, the VW Group came out of obscurity straight into #6, while Hyundai-Kia, despite growing 46% YoY, repeated the 7th spot it had in the previous year.

Finally, the fast growing GAC ended at #9, and could climb even more in 2020.

15 comments:

  1. What does bold mean here for the BEV makers?

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    1. I'm wondering this too, maybe because their BEVs are (mostly?) long(ish) range? Just guessing.

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    2. Yes, all EVs that have > 300 kms electric range.

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  2. Well, José, to me a more meaningful distinction would be that between those who offer ALSO long range BEVs and those who ONLY offer short range BEVs.
    With this present distinction, BMW would appear to be better than Hyundai-Kia in terms of BEV offerings (range-wise), when Hyundai-Kia also offers BEVs with a much bigger range than the i3.
    They should not be penalised for offering ALSO shorter range BEVs.
    In fact, to offer also BEVs with shorter range is something VERY GOOD, in my view, because, for those who can enjoy them without problems, they are even better (lower emissions in production and use, in general) than longer range ones. And for lots of people they are good enough (e.g.: those who own another car for long trips).
    My view. :-)

    Thanks a lot for the wonderful blog !

    Hope you'll resume reporting about Italy.
    In January:
    BEV share: 1.2%
    PEV share: 2.1%

    Obrigado !
    Ciao
    Alok

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    1. "Lower emissions during production" is not really true: while larger batteries obviously need more resources to produce, they also last longer -- so it's actually a wash. The only real difference is that EVs with larger batteries are a bit less efficient in use, because of the additional weight.

      (On the other hand, with smart charging, they offer more potential to help out the grid -- thus improving renewables integration, and lowering the need for dedicated grid batteries... That might actually more than make up for the slightly higher energy consumption.)

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    2. I see your point, Alok.

      Will have it in consideration in future posts.

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    3. DoggydogworldFebruary 05, 2020

      "Larger batteries last longer" is not entirely true. Early Model S NCA cells were probably good for ~800 cycles or 150-200k miles. Short range EV makers typically chose more durable chemistries with higher cycle life to match the same lifetime mileage.

      You really see this with PHEVs like Volt with ~16 kWh batteries that almost never fail.

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    4. PHEV batteries lasting long is more a matter of leaving a giant unused capacity than of chemistry. Most BEVs with smaller batteries on the other hand don't have longer cycle lives, last I heard... And current Tesla batteries are indeed also good for significantly more than 800 cycles. (Despite still using NCA.)

      Also, everything else being equal, a more durable lower-density battery also needs more resources to produce per kWh... (Plus many low-range EVs simply use older lower-density cell types, not necessarily longer lasting ones, thus losing on both fronts in terms of emissions per mile.)

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  3. Hi Jose, thanks for the great work !!! Why is Hyundai-Kia with 86k BEVs behind VW with 78K BEVs ?

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  4. Thanks for the OEM group level stuff. Nobody else seems to report it.

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  5. Congrats Tesla again. No wonder, the share value has jumped to $ 880 +. Those who want to see the burning earth convert to greening earth are holding their hands with Tesla.

    Nice to see that BAIC sells 100% EVs.
    Good to see VW jump 3 spots to #6; 2020 is the make or break year for the company with the launch of ID.3
    BMW sold only 42 253 BEVs with the remaining 103 000 coming from plugins. As long as they sell some car with plug, its ok.

    Between #9 Geely and #10 Toyota is 65 000 gap shows how backward Toyota is. Atleast they are selling more than 1 million full hybrids / year and we should feel happy about that.

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    1. Yeah, Toyota is risking being one of the biggest losers of the coming disruption, as they still believe on the FCEV thing.

      Speaking of that...There will be news on that, soon.

      Stay tuned!

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  6. Are we really surprised that VW Group (12 companies) starting from a very small number, grew faster than Tesla, which is the largest BEV maker? That larger volume is going to be hard to keep growing at as fast of a pace!

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    1. FWIW, VW group is expected to grow way more than even 70% in 2020... Though it should start normalising after that.

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